Russian special military operation in Ukraine #33

Building was sucessfully intercepted by NASAM

Erk wrote:Does anybody know if Russia actually attacked the facilities of the 2 Ukrainian NPPs, or were the forced to shutdown because of damage to the grid further away?

Connections to the grid were attacked. Contrary to western believe Russians don´t bomb NPPs.

JohninMK wrote:...   Due to attacks, water supplies are suspended throughout Kiev - Klitschko...

Now we're cooking  

Yes, the R 77M is reportedly already in production.

Three Seakings with one apparently already in Ukraine. Goodness only knows how they will keep them flying.

"Why are they doing this?
I understand taking out specific targets such as the electric trains which transport the Ukrainian military, but I don't understand a blanket blackout.

Is it to drive the citizens out of Ukraine as refugees?

I don't see the point, unless it's supporting a military push, which there doesn't seem to be yet."

Why are they doing this? Well, part of it is to create a refugee crisis. The Ukrainians have demonstrated to be very bad house guests whenever they've went to Europe and so having to spend tax dollars on them means that its difficult to keep social welfare programs and military spending going. So yeah, that is part of it. Another factor is to punish the EU. In a typical Bloomberg article with all the usual dishonest claims of Russia bombing maternity hospitals (every time that Russia does something that makes Ukraine howl it will be accused of hitting a maternity hospital, a school, a playground, etc) one can parse trhough and see the key points:


"Ukraine Blackouts Threaten Pipeline Bringing Gas to Europe

Russia Knocks Out the Power Keeping Millions of Ukrainians Warm

IMF Reaches Deal With Ukraine, Paving Way for Billions in Aid

Pro-Russia Group Claims Cyberattack on European Parliament

Russia’s Big Crude Oil Pipeline Via Ukraine Is Partly Halted

EU Set to Soften Russian Oil Price Cap Plan Before Approval"

for more on this and a whole lot of emotionally driven propagandistic drivel from bloomberg read here

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-latest-ukraine-enacts-emergency-144747521.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

However, pay very close attention to that top point. Ukrainian blackouts threaten gas to Europe. These strikes cripple Ukraine's military, they also put the screws on the EU. The EU had really really really hoped to Use Ukrainian energy and gas to help it keep up its suicidal sanctions against Russia. The ongoing "energy terrorism" is really tightening the screws on the EU cabal and making them howl.

As others have posted, driving refugees from Ukraine means less people the Russian army has to fight. It also means people lose faith in the regime. I am all but certain Ukrainian oligarchs and political elites either have heat and electricity in their palaces and mansions in Ukraine or are on their yachts and winter homes in the South of France, Florida, and the Caribbean where energy means nothing. The average Ukrainian? He might be fed a line of bull*** from his media but he can see that while his hovel has no electricity or heat or water, his oligarchs do. He has to wait hours in line for gas and may not get any. His ATMs do not have money, his electricity is shot to hell as Ukraine returns to the 19th century.

As for winter offensive, again its not even winter yet and Russia never said it would occupy Ukrainian territory. Its very cynical, cruel even (but as Sherman said "war is hell"), but if Ukraine is rendered uninhabitable and people flee then its a lot of empty real estate and not a country so lets say it joins NATO. Well, that's nice and all, but if there's nobody there to join and there is no infrastructure, and there is nobody in Ukraine to join a NATO army then its effectively demilitarized and made neutral. Russia does not have to fire one solitary shell or take one more step of land (apart from ideally finishing the job in Donetsk, taking the rest of Zaprozhiye, Kherson, and taking Odessa and ideally destroying all Ukrainian infrastructure east of the Dniepr) to win this war.

It seems there are plans in Washington for the deployment of a small, "peacekeeping/ humanitarian assistance," military force into Western Ukraine. There is a game of chicken being played and Russia will probably blink first.

The US might try that, but why would Russia blink at all?

Do you suggest if they blink all the sanctions will be dropped and Russia will be welcomed back into the international community(ie the west) again?

Not going to happen.

Western Ukraine will be given some kind of special status to join NATO. The US makes and breaks rules at will, there will be an exception made

No part of the Ukraine is joining HATO.

Two things they learned in this operation is that they needed a very long range missile on their sukhois and that r-77-1 lacks range.

It pushed them to integrate r-37M as a standard weapon even for patrols which probably obliged them to increase its production

In this conflict the Ukrainian aircraft just run away so long range missiles do make sense... against HATO I would expect the HATO fighters to come to the Russian fighters... at least to start with...

The R-37M was designed from the outset to be used on all new Russian fighters.

 so the logical conclusion would be that they are trying to force Kiev to the negotiating table through degradation of infrastructure as they failed to do so on the battlefield.

Kiev demands the Russian forces withdraw from Ukraine including those in the Crimea so your logic fails badly.

Three Seakings with one apparently already in Ukraine. Goodness only knows how they will keep them flying.

Would they be of the MANPADS resistant type... the Mi-8s they had were not resistant...

It is pretty clear that Russia has realised that if the Ukrainian people don't suffer in this conflict then they will have no reason to even consider surrender and that is how this conflict will end... when factions in the Ukraine decide enough is enough... why are we fighting this proxy war for the US to sell gas to the EU?

Erk wrote:Why are they doing this?
I understand taking out specific targets such as the electric trains which transport the Ukrainian military, but I don't understand a blanket blackout.

Is it to drive the citizens out of Ukraine as refugees?

I don't see the point, unless it's supporting a military push, which there doesn't seem to be yet.

Ukraine is a Nazi state and it's citizens are supporters, instigators, enablers and perpetrators of Nazi ideology and war crimes

That's all the reason you need

Perhaps allowing the Maidan coup in 2014, was not such a good idea after all.

You make it sound like Russia had any choice in the matter... the Maidan coup was a western orchestrated event that Russia had nothing to do with but you think they should have foreseen it... and also done something to prevent it?

I say this reveals the western and northern Ukrainians for the bastards they showed they were during WWII... happy to burn the enemy alive... last time it was jews and commies, this time it is just Russian speakers including Russian speaking Ukrainians.

If you don't expose them for what they are you end up with these living amongst you sharing your improving quality of life as you develop and grow...

They think the west is so wonderful and will take them in... let them go and live in the west...

Also my fairly short post literally included two factual statements (no major offensive and dnieper crossings in tact) so you’re reaching hard to find something to cry about. I can’t remember, was it you who predicted the great phantom offensive starting by mid Nov, that why you got triggered?

If Russia is going to be that predictable then I don't see their military as being very competent... if some fan boys on the internet can accurately predict their plans and goals, well there would be little hope they could actually surprise the nazis amongst the opposition they are trying to defeat.

Perhaps what triggered him is that drama queens who piss their pants at western propaganda telling them their side is losing the game and the time is running out on the virtual clock so they turn the TV off to take a break and then a few weeks later turn the TV on demanding those who claimed we were going to win prove it was a win because the west does not seem to have recorded the results properly (they never do when they are losing).

The problem is that this is war, not some virtue signalling game of soccer... there is no clock and the Russians set the timetable and play the game on their terms... they have their own plans and even if they told me exactly what they planned I would not post it on line because that sort of BS would be useful for the Nazis to reduce their casualties... the last thing I want... every western country should be sending its skinheads to the Ukraine to fight for the greater good of the white world order... fit their body armour with plastic explosive plates instead of armour plates and send them up to the front line with GPS beacons signalling their location to everyone.

Feel free to review the posts around when you last posted and list those that said today is the day Russia would start their massive offensive... or any day for that matter... or even if there is going to be an offensive... I don't remember anyone making any such claims... but then the pissy drama queens crying that the sky is falling because the Orcs gained some territory while losing large numbers of men... much of which seems to have been recovered anyway...

The ground is getting hard but they might wait a month before they attack... they might not even attack... they might be expecting an Orc attack in which the plan might be to stop that attack and then go on an offensive... no one here knows and anyone who did will be perma banned for telling us.

All we have are opinions.

No, I admit my estimation was incorrect. It was not meant as an insult, or maybe it was I can't remember and if it was well insulting people you don't know is frankly stupid so if there was insult intended on my part, please accept my apology. My take is this. There will probably a winter offensive as I cannot imagine why Russia would be almost daily denigrating infrastructure targets, bringing up and training over 300,000 new troops, and putting someone like Surovikin in charge of operations in Ukraine if there wasn't going to be an offensive. So I will qualify my remarks by saying I conjecture that there will be some sort of offensive this winter, but there may not be. Who knows, I don't have access to the minutes, operational orders, and briefings of the Russian high command. I only know what Putin says. At the start of this he said he had no territorial aims (and that explains why Russia has not really dug in and fought for any territory it took. So maybe those forces are just to dig in and protect the few territories he brought into union with Russia. Or, maybe there will be an offensive. I admit, I DON'T KNOW. Here's the thing though -and do not take this as an insult - neither do you. Cheers.