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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #33

    Erk
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    Post  Erk Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:11 pm

    Does anybody know if Russia actually attacked the facilities of the 2 Ukrainian NPPs, or were the forced to shutdown because of damage to the grid further away?
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    Post  Hole Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:12 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #33 - Page 11 Firg2a10
    Building was sucessfully intercepted by NASAM
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #33 - Page 11 Firpfw10
    thumbsup

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    Post  Hole Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:13 pm

    Erk wrote:Does anybody know if Russia actually attacked the facilities of the 2 Ukrainian NPPs, or were the forced to shutdown because of damage to the grid further away?
    Connections to the grid were attacked. Contrary to western believe Russians don´t bomb NPPs.

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    Post  PapaDragon Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:20 pm

    JohninMK wrote:...   Due to attacks, water supplies are suspended throughout Kiev - Klitschko...

    Now we're cooking  thumbsup






    Last edited by PapaDragon on Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:22 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  Isos Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:21 pm

    Two things they learned in this operation is that they needed a very long range missile on their sukhois and that r-77-1 lacks range.

    It pushed them to integrate r-37M as a standard weapon even for patrols which probably obliged them to increase its production. And we can be sure they spend a lot more effort into speeding up r-77M development to replace r-77-1 on production lines totally. I'm pretty sure sime of those air to air kills were done with the r-77M.

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    Post  Arrow Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:24 pm

    Yes, the R 77M is reportedly already in production.
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    Post  VARGR198 Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:27 pm



    Apparently Russia knocked out 100% of the energy grid.

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    Post  Erk Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:17 am

    Apparently Russia knocked out 100% of the energy grid.

    Why are they doing this?
    I understand taking out specific targets such as the electric trains which transport the Ukrainian military, but I don't understand a blanket blackout.

    Is it to drive the citizens out of Ukraine as refugees?

    I don't see the point, unless it's supporting a military push, which there doesn't seem to be yet.
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    Post  Serberus Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:32 am

    Back from my break and still no major offensive which some were insisting would start about two weeks ago now, nor does it look like there will be one.
    Also no attacks on Dnieper crossings to cut supply lines,  so the logical conclusion would be that they are trying to force Kiev to the negotiating table through degradation of infrastructure as they failed to do so on the battlefield.

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    Post  flamming_python Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:40 am

    Well like the previous article hinted at, could be a form of blackmail in order to strong-arm negotiations out of the Ukraine, with the EU pressuring the Ukraine towards doing so

    Although I don't see why Moscow is convinced it will work.

    Depopulation is probably not an objective in of itself, unless Russia is really preparing for some mega offensive and the taking of multiple cities

    But it should be kept in mind that power will always be redistributed to military and state needs first and foremost. Which means electric trains will be kept running and other infrastructure used by the military, unless you really do take out 100% of the power.
    Hospitals, police stations, fire stations should have their own back-up generators. Albeit this can't be generalized for every clinic and so on.
    Regardless with the power out, there goes out water filtration, water pumping, the sanitation system, and probably a lot of the gas heating system - so it's definitely a humanitarian catastrophe in the making. A lot of civilians are going to die over the winter if this keeps up, especially the elderly who have nowhere else to go anyway.

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    Post  TMA1 Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:42 am

    Serberus: For someone who doesn't like assumptions made you sure make an awful lot of assumptions. dunno

    Edit: added who I was communicating with.

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    Post  flamming_python Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:46 am

    Also no attacks on Dnieper crossings to cut supply lines, so the logical conclusion would be that they are trying to force Kiev to the negotiating table through degradation of infrastructure as they failed to do so on the battlefield.

    Russia is digging in along the Dniepr for a protracted conflict, for now though it's probably in Russia's interests to keep the Ukraine's supply lines as long as possible, and to encourage them to go to the Donbass if anything

    It should be assumed NATO is only going to get further involved, to whatever degree. The British are already promising some Sea Kings or whatever they are, and presumably the pilots to go with them. Lots of rumours about the Poles sending people.

    It could well be Russia trying to force Kiev to negotiations, but more like a last-ditch effort at that. Because if it fails then it will have to be decided all on the battlefield indeed.
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    Post  JohninMK Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:56 am

    Three Seakings with one apparently already in Ukraine. Goodness only knows how they will keep them flying.
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    Post  ucmvulcan Thu Nov 24, 2022 1:05 am

    "Why are they doing this?
    I understand taking out specific targets such as the electric trains which transport the Ukrainian military, but I don't understand a blanket blackout.

    Is it to drive the citizens out of Ukraine as refugees?

    I don't see the point, unless it's supporting a military push, which there doesn't seem to be yet."

    Why are they doing this? Well, part of it is to create a refugee crisis. The Ukrainians have demonstrated to be very bad house guests whenever they've went to Europe and so having to spend tax dollars on them means that its difficult to keep social welfare programs and military spending going. So yeah, that is part of it. Another factor is to punish the EU. In a typical Bloomberg article with all the usual dishonest claims of Russia bombing maternity hospitals (every time that Russia does something that makes Ukraine howl it will be accused of hitting a maternity hospital, a school, a playground, etc) one can parse trhough and see the key points:


    "Ukraine Blackouts Threaten Pipeline Bringing Gas to Europe

    Russia Knocks Out the Power Keeping Millions of Ukrainians Warm

    IMF Reaches Deal With Ukraine, Paving Way for Billions in Aid

    Pro-Russia Group Claims Cyberattack on European Parliament

    Russia’s Big Crude Oil Pipeline Via Ukraine Is Partly Halted

    EU Set to Soften Russian Oil Price Cap Plan Before Approval"

    for more on this and a whole lot of emotionally driven propagandistic drivel from bloomberg read here

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-latest-ukraine-enacts-emergency-144747521.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

    However, pay very close attention to that top point. Ukrainian blackouts threaten gas to Europe. These strikes cripple Ukraine's military, they also put the screws on the EU. The EU had really really really hoped to Use Ukrainian energy and gas to help it keep up its suicidal sanctions against Russia. The ongoing "energy terrorism" is really tightening the screws on the EU cabal and making them howl.

    As others have posted, driving refugees from Ukraine means less people the Russian army has to fight. It also means people lose faith in the regime. I am all but certain Ukrainian oligarchs and political elites either have heat and electricity in their palaces and mansions in Ukraine or are on their yachts and winter homes in the South of France, Florida, and the Caribbean where energy means nothing. The average Ukrainian? He might be fed a line of bull*** from his media but he can see that while his hovel has no electricity or heat or water, his oligarchs do. He has to wait hours in line for gas and may not get any. His ATMs do not have money, his electricity is shot to hell as Ukraine returns to the 19th century.

    As for winter offensive, again its not even winter yet and Russia never said it would occupy Ukrainian territory. Its very cynical, cruel even (but as Sherman said "war is hell"), but if Ukraine is rendered uninhabitable and people flee then its a lot of empty real estate and not a country so lets say it joins NATO. Well, that's nice and all, but if there's nobody there to join and there is no infrastructure, and there is nobody in Ukraine to join a NATO army then its effectively demilitarized and made neutral. Russia does not have to fire one solitary shell or take one more step of land (apart from ideally finishing the job in Donetsk, taking the rest of Zaprozhiye, Kherson, and taking Odessa and ideally destroying all Ukrainian infrastructure east of the Dniepr) to win this war.

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    Post  GarryB Thu Nov 24, 2022 2:33 am

    It seems there are plans in Washington for the deployment of a small, "peacekeeping/ humanitarian assistance," military force into Western Ukraine. There is a game of chicken being played and Russia will probably blink first.

    The US might try that, but why would Russia blink at all?

    Do you suggest if they blink all the sanctions will be dropped and Russia will be welcomed back into the international community(ie the west) again?

    Not going to happen.


    Western Ukraine will be given some kind of special status to join NATO. The US makes and breaks rules at will, there will be an exception made

    No part of the Ukraine is joining HATO.

    Two things they learned in this operation is that they needed a very long range missile on their sukhois and that r-77-1 lacks range.

    It pushed them to integrate r-37M as a standard weapon even for patrols which probably obliged them to increase its production

    In this conflict the Ukrainian aircraft just run away so long range missiles do make sense... against HATO I would expect the HATO fighters to come to the Russian fighters... at least to start with...

    The R-37M was designed from the outset to be used on all new Russian fighters.

     so the logical conclusion would be that they are trying to force Kiev to the negotiating table through degradation of infrastructure as they failed to do so on the battlefield.

    Kiev demands the Russian forces withdraw from Ukraine including those in the Crimea so your logic fails badly.

    Three Seakings with one apparently already in Ukraine. Goodness only knows how they will keep them flying.

    Would they be of the MANPADS resistant type... the Mi-8s they had were not resistant...

    It is pretty clear that Russia has realised that if the Ukrainian people don't suffer in this conflict then they will have no reason to even consider surrender and that is how this conflict will end... when factions in the Ukraine decide enough is enough... why are we fighting this proxy war for the US to sell gas to the EU?

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    Erk
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    Post  Erk Thu Nov 24, 2022 3:04 am

    GaryB wrote:

    It is pretty clear that Russia has realised that if the Ukrainian people don't suffer in this conflict then they will have no reason to even consider surrender and that is how this conflict will end... when factions in the Ukraine decide enough is enough... why are we fighting this proxy war for the US to sell gas to the EU?

    That's what I thought, Russia is working on a multi part strategy to stop the EU sending man and machine to help the NATO proxy war.

    By creating a refugee crisis, it drains the EU economy, combined with the self-inflicted sanctions of Russian energy products, it might just work in Russia's favor.

    The way it was going, the Ukrainian people who are not conscripts, were living pretty much as normal, the war was just a news story on the TV.
    But since the Ukrainian attack on the Crimea bridge, the war has come to touch every Ukrainian.

    Perhaps allowing the Maidan coup in 2014, was not such a good idea after all.

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    Post  PapaDragon Thu Nov 24, 2022 3:55 am

    Erk wrote:Why are they doing this?
    I understand taking out specific targets such as the electric trains which transport the Ukrainian military, but I don't understand a blanket blackout.

    Is it to drive the citizens out of Ukraine as refugees?

    I don't see the point, unless it's supporting a military push, which there doesn't seem to be yet.

    Ukraine is a Nazi state and it's citizens are supporters, instigators, enablers and perpetrators of Nazi ideology and war crimes

    That's all the reason you need



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    Post  Serberus Thu Nov 24, 2022 3:59 am

    @ TMA1
    My conclusion was logical based on what has been going on lately and more importantly, just my opinion.

    Also my fairly short post  literally included two factual statements (no major offensive and  dnieper crossings in tact) so you’re reaching hard to find something to cry about.  I can’t remember, was it you who predicted the great phantom offensive starting by mid Nov, that why you got triggered?
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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Thu Nov 24, 2022 5:56 am

    -- GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 --
    @GeromanAT
    I did not make those arrows...
    😇
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #33 - Page 11 FiTFpKOXkAAVzfA?format=png&name=small

    Does this come?

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    Post  GarryB Thu Nov 24, 2022 6:07 am

    Perhaps allowing the Maidan coup in 2014, was not such a good idea after all.

    You make it sound like Russia had any choice in the matter... the Maidan coup was a western orchestrated event that Russia had nothing to do with but you think they should have foreseen it... and also done something to prevent it?

    I say this reveals the western and northern Ukrainians for the bastards they showed they were during WWII... happy to burn the enemy alive... last time it was jews and commies, this time it is just Russian speakers including Russian speaking Ukrainians.

    If you don't expose them for what they are you end up with these censored living amongst you sharing your improving quality of life as you develop and grow...

    They think the west is so wonderful and will take them in... let them go and live in the west...


    Also my fairly short post literally included two factual statements (no major offensive and dnieper crossings in tact) so you’re reaching hard to find something to cry about. I can’t remember, was it you who predicted the great phantom offensive starting by mid Nov, that why you got triggered?

    If Russia is going to be that predictable then I don't see their military as being very competent... if some fan boys on the internet can accurately predict their plans and goals, well there would be little hope they could actually surprise the nazis amongst the opposition they are trying to defeat.

    Perhaps what triggered him is that drama queens who piss their pants at western propaganda telling them their side is losing the game and the time is running out on the virtual clock so they turn the TV off to take a break and then a few weeks later turn the TV on demanding those who claimed we were going to win prove it was a win because the west does not seem to have recorded the results properly (they never do when they are losing).

    The problem is that this is war, not some virtue signalling game of soccer... there is no clock and the Russians set the timetable and play the game on their terms... they have their own plans and even if they told me exactly what they planned I would not post it on line because that sort of BS would be useful for the Nazis to reduce their casualties... the last thing I want... every western country should be sending its skinheads to the Ukraine to fight for the greater good of the white world order... fit their body armour with plastic explosive plates instead of armour plates and send them up to the front line with GPS beacons signalling their location to everyone.

    Feel free to review the posts around when you last posted and list those that said today is the day Russia would start their massive offensive... or any day for that matter... or even if there is going to be an offensive... I don't remember anyone making any such claims... but then the pissy drama queens crying that the sky is falling because the Orcs gained some territory while losing large numbers of men... much of which seems to have been recovered anyway...

    The ground is getting hard but they might wait a month before they attack... they might not even attack... they might be expecting an Orc attack in which the plan might be to stop that attack and then go on an offensive... no one here knows and anyone who did will be perma banned for telling us.

    All we have are opinions.

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    Post  Serberus Thu Nov 24, 2022 6:27 am

    Felt free, found one after about 5 second of searching , posted on 31 Oct (see below) claiming offensive in fortnight,  so mid Nov
    Confirms what i wrote earlier. Maybe learn to navigate your own forum before accusing people of making shit up.

    Cheers mate.

    Mon 31 Oct 2022, 09:07
    by ucmvulcan
    I will be revisiting this post as soon as the Soil in Ukraine hardens enough to allow for a winter offensive (approximately a fortnight).

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    Post  ucmvulcan Thu Nov 24, 2022 7:14 am

    No, I admit my estimation was incorrect. It was not meant as an insult, or maybe it was I can't remember and if it was well insulting people you don't know is frankly stupid so if there was insult intended on my part, please accept my apology. My take is this. There will probably a winter offensive as I cannot imagine why Russia would be almost daily denigrating infrastructure targets, bringing up and training over 300,000 new troops, and putting someone like Surovikin in charge of operations in Ukraine if there wasn't going to be an offensive. So I will qualify my remarks by saying I conjecture that there will be some sort of offensive this winter, but there may not be. Who knows, I don't have access to the minutes, operational orders, and briefings of the Russian high command. I only know what Putin says. At the start of this he said he had no territorial aims (and that explains why Russia has not really dug in and fought for any territory it took. So maybe those forces are just to dig in and protect the few territories he brought into union with Russia. Or, maybe there will be an offensive. I admit, I DON'T KNOW. Here's the thing though -and do not take this as an insult - neither do you. Cheers.

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    Post  mnztr Thu Nov 24, 2022 7:47 am

    Not sure if posted yet. Medvedev tour of Russian missile factory:



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    Post  Podlodka77 Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:25 am

    SERBERUS, even though you are my countryman, you are really pathetic.
    I thought there was salvation for you, but I see that there is not.
    And what would you like, cities where a solid percentage of the population does not want to live in Russia, under Russia or with Russia ?
    The Russians are JUST DOING WHAT THEY ARE DOING, that is destroying the energy and industrial sectors of Ukraine.
    How long would YOU, hero, last without work, without electricity, without water ?
    Do you think Ukroshitstans can do this forever ?

    A good part of you on the forum only have cities in your head, while the Russian plan is (probably) what AMXXXL once wrote - those who don't like it must leave. What will happen to Lvov, Ternopol and Ivano-Frankovsk in the future and after the end of the conflict, I don't think it worries the Russians much, but I am convinced that they will not allow the NATO pact to go beyond the mentioned cities.
    Only what Stalin annexed, Russia does not need at all, because it is an ulcer that needs to be removed.

    I have already written several times and I will write again that about half (if not half then at least 30%) of the inhabitants of Kharkov, Odessa and Nikolaev, Zaporozhye will not want to live with Russia or under Russia.
    Therefore, Kharkov would perhaps have less than 500,000 inhabitants in the future instead of one million, Odessa less than 500,000, while Nikolaev would fall even lower in percentage. Zaporozhye is already reported to have been abandoned by 40% of the population.
    And since I am of the opinion that no one needs a half-empty city (the development of the city is not sustainable), I also think that the territories are not a priority either. I have never even heard a high-ranking Russian official write about Odessa, Kharkov, Nikolaev, etc.
    Such stories are here on the forum and on Telegram.
    I am of the opinion that the Russians will not go in the direction of Odessa, but I am still not sure about Kharkov.
    Odessa has a small percentage of Russians, and I would not include those who declare themselves Ukroshitstans into Russia.

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    Post  Big_Gazza Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:43 am

    Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

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