Russia Defence Forum

Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


+76
zepia
Broski
Backman
ahmedfire
RTN
The-thing-next-door
Krepost
Firebird
famschopman
Singular_Transform
owais.usmani
AMCXXL
TMA1
Big_Gazza
sepheronx
Dr.Snufflebug
littlerabbit
Arsenic
Belisarius
Sujoy
Lapain
Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E
VARGR198
ucmvulcan
Manov
calripson
sundoesntrise
DerWolf
diabetus
AMK
Werewolf
Rodion_Romanovic
Godric
0nillie0
caveat emptor
PhSt
AlfaT8
Scorpius
GunshipDemocracy
pavi
Walther von Oldenburg
Arkanghelsk
Arrow
Tolstoy
Stealthflanker
Airbornewolf
SeigSoloyvov
mr_hd
Karl Haushofer
auslander
Podlodka77
GarryB
lyle6
d_taddei2
MMBR
Erk
PapaDragon
Azi
crod
mnztr
franco
billybatts91
JohninMK
zorobabel
lancelot
Regular
ludovicense
dionis
nomadski
thegopnik
Kiko
ALAMO
flamming_python
Hole
limb
Isos
80 posters

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    auslander
    auslander


    Posts : 1638
    Points : 1718
    Join date : 2015-04-25

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  auslander Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:09 am

    Schoolchildren from Sevastopol collected a parcel for the front. The children also wrote letters of support and gratitude to the soldiers. Students of the 2-A grade of the Sevastopol school No. 38 handed over humanitarian aid to Russian soldiers in the combat zone: medicines, warm insoles, disposable tableware, personal hygiene products and food. This was reported in the We Together volunteer center, which will send humanitarian aid directly to the front.

    In addition, schoolchildren wrote letters of gratitude and support to the soldiers. “We thank everyone who takes part in the collection of humanitarian aid for our soldiers. Together we will win,” the volunteer center noted.

    As ForPost previously reported, Sevastopol entrepreneurs, together with colleagues from the Ivanovo region ,handed over a large batch of bedding to the participants in the special military operation in Ukraine .

    Prior to this, Sevastopol seamstresses produced thermal underwear for mobilized Sevastopol residents.

    Auslander & VCO

    GarryB, franco, Big_Gazza, kvs, zepia, JohninMK, starman and like this post

    avatar
    Karl Haushofer


    Posts : 933
    Points : 926
    Join date : 2015-05-03

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  Karl Haushofer Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:51 am

    How realistic is it for Russia to lose Crimea before the end of 2023?

    Firebird, Rodion_Romanovic, lancelot and ucmvulcan dislike this post

    auslander
    auslander


    Posts : 1638
    Points : 1718
    Join date : 2015-04-25

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  auslander Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:58 am

    09:30 or so. The orcs are shooting at us again. Something is burning at the west beaches, lots of black smoke from one area. We won't go anywhere near that area, OpSec and Security, plus Security is everywhere on our side. I'll report what happened if and when I can.

    Auslander & VCO

    GarryB, franco, Airbornewolf, kvs, JohninMK and Hole like this post

    auslander
    auslander


    Posts : 1638
    Points : 1718
    Join date : 2015-04-25

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Foreign anchors found in and around Sevastopol and Balaklava.

    Post  auslander Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:03 am

    https://sevastopol.su/news/ot-tavrov-i-rima-do-krigsmarine-udivitelnye-artefakty-chastnoy-kollekcii-yakorey-sevastopolya
    Podlodka77
    Podlodka77


    Posts : 1674
    Points : 1678
    Join date : 2022-01-06
    Location : Z

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  Podlodka77 Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:06 am

    A reminder for malicious anvils is that Ukraine has already lost over 25% of its population; 6.2 million in liberated areas, over 3 million refugees in Russia + 2 million in Crimea. And the destruction of the infrastructure is ongoing, it does not stop.
    Since I know that some malicious people have made comparisons with Vietnam and how this is the "Russian Vietnam", I have to ask them what percentage of Vietnamese actually moved to the USA and took American citizenship ?  Laughing
    All I want is for Ukroshitstans to take the path of eternal hunting grounds today as in the past months in hundreds (maybe even thousands) because those who spit on their origin did not deserve anything better.

    And I will use the opportunity to insult the USSR one more time. I haven't done it recently, I have to now..
    If it wasn't for Lenin, many Russians in the past 100 years wouldn't have become Ukroshitstans, and if it weren't for Stalin and his megalomania, then Western Ukroshitstan wouldn't have become a model for the entire Nazi yellow-blue freak today.
    Russia was a cash cow during the USSR and all the republics developed at the expense of Russia, while it turns out that only the Russians loved that red utopia.
    White army forever ! I would certainly have been on that side in 1917..
    Given that no one declares themselves a Soviet (utopia) anymore, it is clear that it is true what I wrote a long time ago that it was the RUSSIANS who won the Great Patriotic War - together with the Belarusians which are the nation that lost the largest percentage of the population in WW2..
    The Russian Empire had its mistakes, but it created a Russian identity and a Russian state, all the opposite of the red vermin. The Reds were thrown in by the West to destroy it, Russian state, Russian Orthodox Church and Russian identity - which ultimately did not work.
    More than Project 885M submarines (my favorite Russian war machine), I want the imperial eagles back on the Kremlin towers.


    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 E9eqxv10


    Last edited by Podlodka77 on Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:08 am; edited 1 time in total

    GarryB and Rodion_Romanovic like this post

    auslander
    auslander


    Posts : 1638
    Points : 1718
    Join date : 2015-04-25

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Doktors and surgeons working on our wounded.

    Post  auslander Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:07 am

    https://sevastopol.su/news/hirurgi-sapery-izvlekli-iz-grudi-uchastnika-svo-nerazorvavshiysya-boepripas

    Surgeons-sappers removed unexploded ordnance from the chest of a member of the SVO

    GarryB, franco, Airbornewolf, kvs, zepia, JohninMK, Hole and lancelot like this post

    avatar
    ALAMO


    Posts : 3470
    Points : 3472
    Join date : 2014-11-25

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  ALAMO Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:22 am

    lancelot wrote:Abandoning Kherson because Ukraine might blow up the dam is retarded.

    That is only your opinion based on a fact, that you don't listen to what is being said I guess. Surovikin put it clearly.
    Logistics is problematic already, as the water dropping caused some flooding on the lower bank of a river.
    Plus taking out Artemovsky Bridge, which still stands but is being shelled regularly what makes the transport via the bridge risky business.
    And it is a costly trade-off, AD missiles used for intercepting the incoming are not cheap, while the shells Ukrs are using are free of charge for them, you know.
    Ukrs don't have a regular military grade means to take out the dam, but they can stage a terror act the same way they did on the Crimean Bridge. Send a TNT filled submersible down the river flow, and detonate it below the water surface. There are lots of concepts.
    The whole situation proves again that the Russian authorities are extremely pragmatic and gives a shit about emotions. They can accept propaganda humiliation for resolving real issues. They don't run powered by the stupid concepts of pride&glory.
    Being pragmatic is the last thing Anglosaxons expected from the Russkie.
    A surprise happened.
    It is very bad.
    For the Ukrs.

    Not sure who wrote that, but I totally agree - say all you have to say about humiliation, losing ground etc. to Kutozov Laughing Laughing

    GarryB, franco, flamming_python, Werewolf, kvs, Rodion_Romanovic, MMBR and like this post

    Podlodka77
    Podlodka77


    Posts : 1674
    Points : 1678
    Join date : 2022-01-06
    Location : Z

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  Podlodka77 Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:23 am

    Karl Haushofer wrote:How realistic is it for Russia to lose Crimea before the end of 2023?


    It's more realistic that the two of us die from radiation...
    Who is this genius ? Laughing

    GarryB, JohninMK, Hole and ucmvulcan like this post

    avatar
    ALAMO


    Posts : 3470
    Points : 3472
    Join date : 2014-11-25

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  ALAMO Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:27 am

    auslander wrote:https://sevastopol.su/news/hirurgi-sapery-izvlekli-iz-grudi-uchastnika-svo-nerazorvavshiysya-boepripas

    Surgeons-sappers removed unexploded ordnance from the chest of a member of the SVO

    There was a case like that back in Chechenya - a guy had unexploded VOG-25 stuck in his calf. Surgery was carried by the doctors wearing armored vests, still that would not help them much ... Balls made of steel they had!

    GarryB, kvs and MMBR like this post

    flamming_python
    flamming_python


    Posts : 7796
    Points : 7872
    Join date : 2012-01-30

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  flamming_python Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:22 am

    Podlodka77 wrote:



    Is it Zelensky's coke, or is it copium? Laughing

    Well ladies and ladies we'll find out soon, stay tuned for another episode of chicken little's and doomers

    GarryB, psg, Werewolf, Airbornewolf, MMBR, Hole, Broski and Podlodka77 like this post

    thegopnik
    thegopnik


    Posts : 1199
    Points : 1205
    Join date : 2017-09-19

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  thegopnik Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:24 am

    made more articles, and still have to make more for air space capabilities with land capabilities since i still have to cover drones, aircrafts, EW systems and land forces. but for now. https://defenceforumindia.com/threads/russia-naval-capabilities-to-deal-with-future-threats-part-1.83614/
    https://defenceforumindia.com/threads/russia-naval-capabilities-to-deal-with-future-threats-part-2.83615/
    https://defenceforumindia.com/threads/russia-future-air-space-capabilities-part-1.83620/



    auslander
    auslander


    Posts : 1638
    Points : 1718
    Join date : 2015-04-25

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Krim/Hero City of Sevastopol

    Post  auslander Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:26 am

    Podlodka77 wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:How realistic is it for Russia to lose Crimea before the end of 2023?
    It's more realistic that the two of us die from radiation...Who is this genius ? Laughing

    Last time the orcs tried their crap here there were in less than five mikes roughly 10 thousand citizens camped all around SBU HQ on Ulitsiya Lenina. Won't work this time either. Rule of thumb: Never ever screw with Sevastopolets or Krimeans. Don't work. Every vehicle SBU had in and around their compound was destroyed. Not disabled but destroyed. SBU even had broken glass inbeded in the tops of their walls. Yeah, that worked, too. NOT.

    Auslander & VCO

    GarryB, kvs, JohninMK, Hole and Podlodka77 like this post

    limb
    limb


    Posts : 1186
    Points : 1212
    Join date : 2020-09-17

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  limb Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:57 am

    How realistic is it for Russia to capture bakhmut, avdeevka and maryinka by 2024?

    Firebird and Rodion_Romanovic dislike this post

    avatar
    mr_hd


    Posts : 78
    Points : 80
    Join date : 2020-12-13

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  mr_hd Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:08 am

    auslander wrote:
    Podlodka77 wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:How realistic is it for Russia to lose Crimea before the end of 2023?
    It's more realistic that the two of us die from radiation...Who is this genius ? Laughing

    Last time the orcs tried their crap here there were in less than five mikes roughly 10 thousand citizens camped all around SBU HQ on Ulitsiya Lenina. Won't work this time either. Rule of thumb: Never ever screw with Sevastopolets or Krimeans. Don't work. Every vehicle SBU had in and around their compound was destroyed. Not disabled but destroyed. SBU even had broken glass inbeded in the tops of their walls. Yeah, that worked, too. NOT.

    Auslander & VCO

    Do not agree, situation is much more different for Crimea now. It is not just disputed territory anymore but already directly involved in conflict with attacks like on bridge and airfields etc.
    For Ukraine main thing is - they are seriously working to be ready to challenge Russia there on long run - mainly in military means.

    Once Crimea joined Russia it was promised bright future, great tourism and development, stability bla bla. But that is not going to happen if water supply is down, UAVs are flying with bombs and occasionally even missiles etc.

    The main problem for Russia is - it does not have historical claims for it. Ukraine has. It was undisputable part of Ukraine once USSR ceased to exit. That is unfortunately fact.  Another problem for Russia is - it is using peninsula heavily for attacks into Ukraine.

    This second part is much more problematic in my eyes. Once Ukraine decides to focus on Crimea - it won't be nice. Ukraine is already looming above Black Sea fleet in the shadows.

    If I am living there - I would try to buy some property in Russia mainland and be ready to send kids there for school for example in case it gets bad.
    I do not wish that Criema becomes war zone personally, but that scenario is not excluded - that is reality. Ukraine is pissed, they will come hard, I said that months ago, people had ridiculed me here... but Crimea was used to attack Odessa for example, thousands of troops and equipment was shipped through it to Ukraine - it became legitimate military threat to Ukraine and they will deal with it. So far what they said - mostly they delivered against all odds, I would not underestimate them - I hope I am wrong.

    Firebird, Rodion_Romanovic, zardof, limb and lancelot dislike this post

    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 34888
    Points : 35406
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  GarryB Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:50 am

    If they could they would.

    That is never true.

    Nobody knows what they can or can't do till they try and I think this operation should really have opened HATOs eyes to how it is oriented and how its military forces are based.

    The enormous bias to air power has been their undoing... great against third world countries but moving forward more and more countries are getting the air defences of first world countries or even better... second world countries.

    That front was the same for months. No real progress.

    So? If there was no interest in moving that front then you would expect no movement.

    If they tried and tried a tried and expended enormous forces and energy to move the front and it didn't move or didn't move much or moved a little and then moved back (sound familiar) then it would be clear they failed.

    Nothing of the sort happened for Russia.

    And the 300k mobilized don't seem to change the situation.

    You need to ask why they were mobilised.

    Do you think they did it to just continue what they are doing in the same places and same conditions, or are they planning something in advance for a specific time period for a specific effect and expected outcome...

    Most think they would be used in an offensive but that yet has to be proven.

    Everyone who thinks they might be used in an offensive also pointed out that current muddy conditions are not really suitable to big offensives and that in a few weeks to a month conditions would be better... ironic because those moaning most for a mobilisation wanted them sent to the front immediately as cannon fodder.

    The actual political forces within russian armed forces are destroying the russian army. Wagner, Chechens, Special forces... are all trying to get dumb victories to be seen as the best even if it fucks up the operation.

    Hahahahaha.... yes, the success of the Russian military is political and is destroying the Russian civilisation... don't they know these nazis have decided to be European and the nazis in Europe have started proceedings to accept them as cannon fodder for the empire?

    Add to that a political leadership that doesn't even know what goal it wabts and keep negociating with the USA and you end up with a lost war.

    Putin was pretty clear about the goals since the start and has repeated them multiple times for the idiots...

    Everything is going to plan... Ukraine is going to get hollowed out and the nazis and Orcs displaced into the EU and the west is going to revisit those documents Putin gave them to look at late last year (HATO and US)... and then we will see.

    I suspect Russia will withdraw all its diplomats from EU countries and close borders off pointing west... which raises the question about what they might want to do about Kaliningrad...

    It all comes down to what the western and northern Ukrainian people want... if they want to fight to the last then Russia can oblige... no kid gloves needed there now.

    I'm not optimistic about a russian victory. It will be a long conflict like Syrian or Iraqi ones that will last forever and at the end will be useless.

    As soon as you say a long conflict then it is safe to assume the west is going to lose... they spend too much on war and "defence" and can't afford long wars any more... even though they race to create or join wars at the drop of a hat.

    It’s just a mediocre and flawed tank that is about to be replaced by brand new modern and up to date T-14,

    They are doing the job they were designed for just fine with being expensive maintenance whores like western tanks that need air conditioned storage or all their batteries go flat.

    Even if they had all T-14s what difference would that make... not a lot... T-14s would still get destroyed when hit properly and still break down from time to time, or are you 12 years old and think the best tank is the best and is perfect and nothing bad ever happens.

    Most of the sophisticated net centric stuff the T-14 would use is probably not completely implemented yet across all platforms so there is no huge value in rushing it to the front when other tanks can do the same job.

    Technically speaking, on paper, Oplot is better tank than any T-72 derivative apart from T-90AM

    It has 28 vertically stacked super vulnerable propellent stubs at the feet of the turret crew ready to immediately burst into flames with any penetration of the turret that sends sparks or burning material bouncing around the turret... the T-64/T-80 autoloader layout is totally flawed... and the solution to put all the ammo in the turret bustle just left the ammo even more exposed.

    Plus like others have said, if Russia can pullout their heavy equipment, then they could also supply their existing troops.

    Russia can withdraw because the dams have not been destroyed yet... moving back means destroying the dams no longer makes any military sense.

    Can't win a war if you keep retreating. I hope a winter counter-offensive is in the works.

    The Taliban retreated everywhere the US/west attacked in Afghanistan... who won there?

    The mighty european armies retreated in the face of the Germans in WWII, but they had the Soviets to beat the Germans for them.

    What about offense? Where can russia attack now? And I dont mean a local attack to take a few hundred meters.

    Kinda hard to say without knowing the concentrations of enemy forces, but I would suggest bypassing large concentrations of enemy forces inside urban areas and encircling them and then killing them out in the open when they come out for water or food or ammo.

    Russian society & more importantly the Kremlin are not ready for this. Mass death of soldiers, like I've said before, is, in the eyes of the Kremlin, the biggest threat to political stability in Russia. They believe that huge casualties are worse than strategic defeats.

    So this podcast wanker is saying the problem with the kremlin is that they are not ready to walk their soldiers to unnecessary deaths.

    Couldn't possibly be that they are waiting for harder ground for better mobility because they enjoy better mobility and can use that to increase the cost to the enemy as well as move smaller amounts of troops around the battlefield to effectively deal with much larger groups of enemy forces than they could right at this current moment.

    Thank God Putin isn't Zelenskiy and he doesn't throw soldiers into the meat grinder, but he risks NOTHING.

    He doesn't have to risk anything... the **** wit enemy is on borrowed time... it will be their government that will collapse when the people of the country suffer winter conditions and find out their men are being walked into artillery barrages by idiots who would make WWI British commanders look like genius humanitarians.

    Saying it in advance just in case: If this is true it's capitulation, plain and simple

    They used a humanitarian aide corridor to launch a terrorist attack on a civilian bridge and a drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet, but refused to open humanitarian corridors to allow their own civilians to leave cities under attack... and when they moved forward when Russian forces withdrew for whatever reason they brought more civilians as meat shields to fire at Russian soldiers and civilians from behind... they signed two agreements at Minsk...

    This is bullshit... and it plays on the insecurities of several faggots who think Putin is the problem... because the west is telling them he will sell them out...

    He has now recognised the danger... joining the west now requires becoming part of the alphabet soup orgy... the weak and oppressed are finding power and finding their voices and are using their new power to do to conservatives what the conservatives have been doing to them, which is hilarious... it is like ghettos and walls in Israel... but of course they don't see the joke... it is not a funny joke, it is the sort of thing that makes you smile and think about sayings like "what goes around comes around".

    Manpower wins wars - sweat and blood. Not fancy toys.

    Rubbish... the Chinese were beaten and broken by the Japanese and the Chinese were also defeated by the Vietnamese in the 70s when the Chinese decided to go in and teach them a lesson... the German forces pushed the western europeans to the English Channel and the Soviets to Moscow very quickly and very easily and if they weren't such ruthless nazi bastards they might have offered Russians some sort of autonomy that they might have been happy with and then turned and destroyed the UK with all the resources and manpower from Russia.

    The USSR showed this in the GPW. If Russia couldn't ferry or airlift over thousands of the mobilized men over a river over last 2 weeks and/or the next 8 weeks, then we deserve the worst outcome in this war.

    It is not about getting them in there, it is about the risk of flooding cutting them off and them having to fight without resupply.

    Those artillery barrages they use to decimate the enemy are not blades of grass or leaves from a tree... they are artillery shells and propellent charges that have to be delivered in enormous numbers continuously to keep the guns firing... and not just that.

    While Ukrainian territory will also be scorched economically, and the EU's in attempting to support them - this is also attrition and goes towards the same goal; forcing capitulation and collapse from exhaustion.

    The EU is arming and supporting a country at war at a time when their own problems are only getting bigger... energy costs have spiralled out of control and not just that... gas is actually used for a lot of other things including the chemical industry and for fertiliser... the US to the rescue can't even supply its own needs let alone rescue the EU.... their method of rescue for the EU is to tell the EU to move production to the US and get subsidies from the money printing machine... the EU has already stated it will take the US to the WTO over it... but when has that ever stopped the US... they are the WTO...

    In the right hands its only the most dangerous opponent Russian tankers could face.
    Ukraine's trash cans had such weak armor that it could be pierced head-on. No challenge at all.
    But a Ukrainian T-90 might actually make the Russian gunner work to earn his paycheck.

    But then Russian anti tank missiles fired from drones and helicopters can blunt any attack and it seems to me that the Ukrainians are no longer using large formations of armour... instead they use lots of soft vehicles including civilian vehicles together with a single tank or BMP... which, when taken out breaks the attack and leads to a real local route...

    The only danger is if the enemy finds a 3rd option you hadn't considered.

    It is always important to be flexible and adaptable when it comes to plans and war... always be ready to change tactics.

    Because I haven't heard of any US-Russia talks nor of the Russian desire for them.

    The US created this conflict and whether they have any interest in ending it it will only be on terms they prefer so there is nothing to talk about really.

    Except where to send the bodies.

    Big_Gazza, kvs, zardof, MMBR, Hole, Broski, Belisarius and Podlodka77 like this post

    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 34888
    Points : 35406
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  GarryB Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:09 am

    How realistic is it for Russia to lose Crimea before the end of 2023?

    Would be right up there with Alaska rejoining Russia.

    Once Crimea joined Russia it was promised bright future, great tourism and development, stability bla bla. But that is not going to happen if water supply is down, UAVs are flying with bombs and occasionally even missiles etc.

    The really funny thing is that these drone and terrorist attacks on Crimea just shows Russia that the current borders are not good enough... Russia has to push much deeper into the Ukraine to eliminate the threat to new Russian territories and to destroy all resistence... this does not put Russia off, it confirms its plans make sense and are necessary.

    Ukraines best option was to follow through on the Minsk agreements, but they thought they could get better and now they have much much worse, and it is going to keep getting worse and worse till there is no one left to negotiate with anyway because the few Orcs left don't want their kids sent to the front to die for the US, and her stupid games with Russia.

    The main problem for Russia is - it does not have historical claims for it. Ukraine has. It was undisputable part of Ukraine once USSR ceased to exit. That is unfortunately fact. Another problem for Russia is - it is using peninsula heavily for attacks into Ukraine.

    Historical claims... perhaps Russia could hand it over to Turkey then?

    Or perhaps make some new history by moving Russian borders to Serbia. Razz

    Attacks on Crimea would justify Russia taking more and more of the Ukraine and possibly also responding to those who support them.

    Lots of western sanctions against Russia have as yet not been responded to... a few things the west gets from Russia they wont sanction which makes them obvious choices for Russia to sanction instead.

    Werewolf, Big_Gazza, kvs, Rodion_Romanovic, Hole, Broski and Belisarius like this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 11765
    Points : 11892
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  JohninMK Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:42 am

    This jetstream picture is from a ZeroHedge article on the cold spell hitting the US. Whilst difficult to see clearly I thought it relevant here as it also shows the warm spell seemingly hitting Europe and Ukraine.

    This could delay the ground freezing this year. If I am correct, no doubt the MoD have a very clear view of this which may well be having an influence on their current actions.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 FhJV8lnWAAAGfla?format=png&name=medium

    flamming_python likes this post

    avatar
    Azi


    Posts : 757
    Points : 749
    Join date : 2016-04-05

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  Azi Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:54 am

    The much-heralded trap in Kherson is not a trap it's just a retreat! Russia has destroyed all bridges across the Dnieper and with it the possibility of a counterattack in the near future.
    nomadski
    nomadski


    Posts : 2123
    Points : 2133
    Join date : 2017-01-02

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  nomadski Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:58 am

    Source please Azi . Also the LDPR is on high ground of +100 meters , not lowlands , should be dry enough to allow light armour and infantry to manoeuvre . Am I right ? So not related to weather conditions .

    Edit : majority of land 100- 400 metres !

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk

    Also if Bridges not destroyed by Russia , then it means probably NATO will not enter West Ukrs and / or Ukrs have no force to cross into East from West . But if Bridges destroyed by Russia , then it means probably NATO will enter West and / or Ukrs have a force to cross into East from West . The second case is worrying , because some said Russia will not accept NATO in the West , which means they will hit back with non- conventional means . Ukrs will destroy the Bridges if Russia advances West , or if they fear they will advance West . So right now , nobody feels worked up enough to destroy the Bridges . Do they know something , we don't ?


    Last edited by nomadski on Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:17 am; edited 2 times in total

    GarryB likes this post

    flamming_python
    flamming_python


    Posts : 7796
    Points : 7872
    Join date : 2012-01-30

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  flamming_python Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:03 am

    mr_hd wrote:Do not agree, situation is much more different for Crimea now. It is not just disputed territory anymore but already directly involved in conflict with attacks like on bridge and airfields etc.

    Have you been there?

    For Ukraine main thing is - they are seriously working to be ready to challenge Russia there on long run - mainly in military means.

    In the long-run, if this war keeps up, the Ukraine will be absorbed into Russia region by region as it's grinded down economically and militarily

    They should be salvaging a peace while that's still an option, instead of challenging Russia on its own territory

    Once Crimea joined Russia it was promised bright future, great tourism and development, stability bla bla. But that is not going to happen if water supply is down, UAVs are flying with bombs and occasionally even missiles etc.

    The Crimea was promised protection from Ukrainian ultranationalists and the coup regime in Kiev and that's what they got.

    They enjoyed the stability of the last 8 years and looked upon everything that was happening in the Ukraine as 'phew, not our problem any more!'

    They're a front-line territory and likely expect a few surprises. But so far it's calm; tourism season was great during the summer there. There have been a total of 4 Ukrainian attacks there so far that did any damage - the Sevastopol Naval HQ, the bridge, the naval base attack which damaged an old minesweeper, and the ammo dump explosion. Oh yeah and they damaged some substation.
    It's a fair way to go before water supplies are cut off in the Crimea and UAVs are cruising at will above its skies - but suppose they are. Why would that change the opinion of the Crimean population and hurt their resolve any more than Russian UAVs and cruise missiles flying above the Ukraine at will and hitting targets have changed the opinions of Ukrainian residents to its favour?
    You're completely out of your depth in your analysis. The people of the Crimea did not join Russia ultimately because they wanted a bright future and great tourism - although they did; but more than anything because they are Russians themselves and were tired of the radicals in Kiev threatening them, Ukrainianizing them and making them feel as foreigners in their own land.

    The main problem for Russia is - it does not have historical claims for it. Ukraine has. It was undisputable part of Ukraine once USSR ceased to exit. That is unfortunately fact.  Another problem for Russia is - it is using peninsula heavily for attacks into Ukraine.

    Your problem is that you completely misread and misrepresent the situation according to your own fantasies, therefore you will inevitably be disappointed by the outcome that occurs that does not match your predictions. It's your premise which is at fault.

    Russia has every historical claim on the Crimea, and on the contrary, the Ukraine doesn't on account of its mere 60 years of de-jure control of it and de-facto only 1991-2014; 24 years to have imposed its statehood and identity there.

    The indisputable fact that it was part of the Ukraine once the USSR ceased to exist didn't matter post 2014, and it especially doesn't matter now - given that Russia has thrown the whole international system into flux pending its re-arrangement in a new configuration. Much like the prior Korean war birthed the same system you are referring to and implying the immutability of.
    That Russia is using the Crimea to launch attacks into the Ukraine is not a problem for it any more than it using the Rostov or Belgorod regions for the same purpose. The Crimea is Russian territory and that basic fact can only at this stage be disputed by force of arms. There is no international structure, Western-controlled or otherwise, that will be able to challenge Russian sovereignty in that territory.

    This second part is much more problematic in my eyes. Once Ukraine decides to focus on Crimea - it won't be nice. Ukraine is already looming above Black Sea fleet in the shadows.

    The Ukraine is a broken down country which Russia has already robbed most of the military-industrial abilities of and most of its pre-war standing army. If Russia lets it to within range then it can do some damage, but I don't think that's the plan with the announced withdrawal from Kherson.

    And again, their most recent attack on the Black Sea Fleet has been pretty lackluster in terms of what it achieved. Even the minesweeper took but superficial damage reportedly. The Moskva sinking was far more successful but it had nothing to do with the Crimea.

    So spare us the spooky stories about the Ukrainian cyborgs - they're not a serious threat even with all those NATO arms; else they would have already hit the Crimea more significantly over the past 9 months.

    If I am living there - I would try to buy some property in Russia mainland and be ready to send kids there for school for example in case it gets bad.
    I do not wish that Criema becomes war zone personally, but that scenario is not excluded - that is reality. Ukraine is pissed, they will come hard, I said that months ago, people had ridiculed me here... but Crimea was used to attack Odessa for example, thousands of troops and equipment was shipped through it to Ukraine - it became legitimate military threat to Ukraine and they will deal with it. So far what they said - mostly they delivered against all odds, I would not underestimate them - I hope I am wrong.

    **** 'em
    I don't care if the whole NATO comes down there - they will be annihilated there, that's the only outcome. Read about the Siege of Sevastopol, how it was fought and with what effort. Read about the Crimean War. How much blood Russia spilt in its defense.
    The Donbass was the other huge battleground on the now former territory of the Ukraine during WW2. And it has certainly done its ancestors proud this time around.

    Maybe that's in some way even the Kremlin's plan, if thinking cynically, to get Russians on board for this war - let the Crimeans bear the brunt of some Ukronazi rage attacks. But I doubt it. Either way, it's Russia and no-one much cares about the Ukraine's opinions as to who it belongs to.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:21 am; edited 4 times in total

    GarryB, Hole and Belisarius like this post

    avatar
    Karl Haushofer


    Posts : 933
    Points : 926
    Join date : 2015-05-03

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  Karl Haushofer Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:08 am

    Azi wrote:The much-heralded trap in Kherson is not a trap it's just a retreat! Russia has destroyed all bridges across the Dnieper and with it the possibility of a counterattack in the near future.

    Always expect the worst when it comes to this "special military operation".
    Hole
    Hole


    Posts : 8001
    Points : 7989
    Join date : 2018-03-24
    Age : 46
    Location : Scholzistan

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  Hole Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:10 am

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Fhruu_10


    For Ukraine main thing is - they are seriously working to be ready to challenge Russia there on long run - mainly in military means.
    Russia has energy and natural ressources in abundance. Same for food. The production of military equipment is increasing.

    On the other hand there is 404 with at least 50% of the electric grid destroyed, no industry left. Completely dependend on hand-outs by the west.
    Meanhwile the west is sending 105mm guns because they are low on 155mm shells. The Nazi regime had to pull old 85mm and 130mm guns from the 
    depots.

    Doesn´t look good "in the long run".

    GarryB, flamming_python, Werewolf, Regular, Airbornewolf, Big_Gazza, kvs and like this post

    avatar
    Azi


    Posts : 757
    Points : 749
    Join date : 2016-04-05

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  Azi Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:20 am

    Isos wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:

    Nikolayev was in no sense meaning or interpretation 'impossible to take'. The Ukrainians had a garrison there with some artillery, some mech infantry or marines but that was about it.

    The Russians at one point had it surrounded from most directions. But they chose not to assault it, neither Krivoy Rog either. Instead they retreated somewhat and formed new defensive lines. It's not a question of taking any territory - they chose not to, and switched most efforts to the Donbass direction; whereupon the Nikolayev-Kherson front was stale other than intermittent Ukrainian advances that all failed spectacularly apart from the one that took a little territory back in September.

    If they could they would.

    That front was the same for months. No real progress.

    And the 300k mobilized don't seem to change the situation. Most think they would be used in an offensive but that yet has to be proven.

    The actual political forces within russian armed forces are destroying the russian army. Wagner, Chechens, Special forces... are all trying to get dumb victories to be seen as the best even if it fucks up the operation. Add to that a political leadership that doesn't even know what goal it wabts and keep negociating with the USA and you end up with a lost war.

    Defensive lines are already made in Crimea and Belgorod in Russia. I'm not optimistic about a russian victory. It will be a long conflict like Syrian or Iraqi ones that will last forever and at the end will be useless.
    True! There will be no offensive!!! The mobilized forces are used only to plug holes and gaps in the defense.

    The Russian leadership lied about the state of the army, it's not as great as the Copium guys here on the forum would like you to believe.
    The usual suspects have talked about traps and counter-offensives a thousand times and NOTHING has happened

    The Russian army will continue to try to advance, but slowly and deliberately. The maximum will be the liberation of Donbass, after which attempts will be made to negotiate peace from a strong defensive position.

    For a real offensive, the Russian side would have had to mobilize 1 million men, which, by the way, would not be a problem. That far more than the 300k were mobilized is just a vague rumor and far from reality. The element of surprise is gone, in contrast to the beginning of the operation. By now most of the Ukrainian forces have gained combat experience and in the next wave of mobilization Ukraine will try to mobilize 300k men, even if it's only 200k that will buffer the mobilization of the Russian side a bit. The Ukrainian side is being supported with more and more weapon systems, which, unlike at the beginning, is now being done in secret. Ukraine is now fighting with NATO standards and the camps at NATO are still well stocked. Also, NATO can give away modern self-used equipment, since it would react nuclear in case of an attack by Russia. The US is in the process of helping the UKraine build an integrated air defense system.

    Aid to Ukraine will not stop, the US wants to defeat Russia at all costs...no matter how much debt they incur in the process, the money press is on. USA will fight Russia to the last ukrainian!!!
    flamming_python
    flamming_python


    Posts : 7796
    Points : 7872
    Join date : 2012-01-30

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  flamming_python Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:22 am

    We need to build a perpetual motion machine powered by the tears and cries of doomers Twisted Evil

    GarryB, psg, Werewolf, auslander, MMBR, Eugenio Argentina, Hole and like this post

    avatar
    Azi


    Posts : 757
    Points : 749
    Join date : 2016-04-05

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  Azi Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:25 am

    Hole wrote:
    Russia has energy and natural ressources in abundance. Same for food. The production of military equipment is increasing.

    On the other hand there is 404 with at least 50% of the electric grid destroyed, no industry left. Completely dependend on hand-outs by the west.
    Meanhwile the west is sending 105mm guns because they are low on 155mm shells. The Nazi regime had to pull old 85mm and 130mm guns from the 
    depots.

    Doesn´t look good "in the long run".
    You forget only one little thing... Ukraine is supported by the collective West!

    Nearly 1 billion people, biggest economy of the world, global access to ressources, global dominance in the information space...


    Last edited by Azi on Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:31 am; edited 2 times in total

    Sponsored content


    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32 - Page 3 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:14 am