Business newspaper "Vzglyad"
Where to expect a new Russian offensive
Image; RIA Novosti
Without waiting for the arrival of the reservists, who are still undergoing training in the rear, Russian troops took control of the village of Vorobyovka in the Kupyansky direction. Perhaps this local success heralds a larger onslaught. Obviously, with the arrival of the reservists, the alignment of forces will change and a new Russian offensive should be expected. Where are the most vulnerable sections of the front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
During the offensive in the Kharkov region in the Kupyansk direction, the Russian armed forces occupied the village of Vorobyovka (Gorobyovka). At the same time, they inflicted a significant defeat on units of the 1st operational brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov, spokesman for the Ministry of Defense, announced on Tuesday.
In addition, in the area of the Kharkov village of Kislovka, "an attempt to attack a company tactical group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reinforced with tanks, was thwarted," the general added. According to him, in just one day the enemy lost more than 60 people in the Kupyansk direction, one tank, three armored combat vehicles and two pickup trucks.
In the neighboring sector of the front, in the direction of the city of Krasny Liman, recently occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the areas of the Lugansk villages of Stelmakhovka and Rozovka and the Donetsk villages of Karpovka and Ivanovka, "attempts to cross the enemy across the Zherebets River were thwarted," Konashenkov said. According to a representative of the Ministry of Defense, 46 Ukrainian soldiers, two armored personnel carriers, six armored combat vehicles and also two pickup trucks with heavy machine guns were destroyed in the fighting there.
The head of the department of Eurasian integration and development of the SCO of the Institute of CIS countries, reserve lieutenant colonel Vladimir Evseev, does not consider the capture of Vorobyovka a sign of a major offensive. "According to my assumptions, we are talking about improving our tactical position, about occupying one of the sections of the" gray zone "than about the liberation of a settlement occupied by Ukrainian troops. Yes, the tactical position of our troops is improving, but it is too early to talk about the liberation of the Kharkov region or complete liberation of the LNR,” he warns.
The main "point of tension" for Ukraine remains the agglomeration of Artemovsk (Bakhmut),
the military expert believes. "The liberation of Artemovsk and neighboring Soledar continues. After that, the enemy is likely to leave Seversk, otherwise this city will be surrounded. This will allow us to reach the last line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass - Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Konstantinovka. At the same time, it will be necessary to destroy a number of enemy groups in the rear , in particular in Ugledar and Avdeevka," Evseev explained.
Military expert Mikhail Onufrienko also believes that the capture of Vorobyovka portends an offensive in the Kharkov direction. "This village is located on the left, eastern bank of the Oskol, so we have before us a part of a limited offensive campaign, the goal of which is to squeeze the enemy from the eastern bank of the Oskol and create a long-term line of defense along this bank," Onufrienko explained.
According to the expert, from the borders of Russia up to the Krasny Liman, along the banks of the Seversky Donets River, "long-term concrete fortifications, including firing points, are being created - this fortified area is designed for many months, so it is better to place it along the river bank, which is why the task is to squeeze out the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the maximum from the left bank". According to him, the enemy is now building long-term fortifications not in the Kharkov region, but in the Nikopol direction, that is, from the side of the city of Krivoy Rog.
The enemy is apparently convinced that our big offensive is being prepared along the right bank of the Dnieper,
having the ultimate goal of liberating Zaporozhye," the interlocutor added. However, this means that the Russian army needs to prepare an offensive elsewhere - where "where no one is waiting," and "the Kharkov region, which was abandoned, could eventually become such a direction." , suggests Onufrienko.
A military expert, a graduate of the Higher Diplomatic Academy of France, Alexander Artamonov, also believes that the battle for Artemovsk remains the main thing for the Russian army, "and in the near future our group will be strengthened there" in order to push back the front line and cut off the supply of the garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in neighboring Avdiivka. According to him, "the village of Vodyanoe must be taken, which will make it possible to shoot through the whole of Avdeevka."
“As for the more northern regions, the line of the Oskol River should become a “point of tension” for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We are now positionally standing between the cities of Kremennaya and Svatovo, building positional fortifications there along the “road of life” from Svatovo to Krasny Liman. front line. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces cut the road, this will lead to very big problems in supplying all our troops in the area," Artamonov explained.
The expert especially noted the efforts of the local Cossack brigades, which "are advancing slowly, literally a meter, setting themselves the goal of recapturing Liman." "We must recapture Liman as soon as possible, this is primarily a moral and political duty," the interlocutor is convinced.
In turn, Evseev expects that with the arrival of fresh units, replenished through mobilization, "in about a month" there will be a turning point at the front in the Kharkov region. "The forces will be enough to not squeeze out, but encircle the Ukrainian troops there. In addition, we will be able to carry out offensive operations in another sector of the front - in the direction of Nikolaev," the expert expects.
He also did not rule out that already in November Russia would again attempt an offensive from the territory of Belarus, as happened at the very beginning of the special operation. It is no coincidence that President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko recently announced the formation of a joint grouping in the country.
Meanwhile, General of the Army Sergei Surovikin, commander of the Joint Grouping of Forces in the area of the Northern Military District, said on Tuesday that the total losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine every day range from six hundred to a thousand people killed and wounded. Nevertheless, the enemy does not leave attempts to attack the positions of the RF Armed Forces, primarily the Kupyanskoye, Krasnolimanskoye and Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog directions, the commander added.