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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #29

    lyle6
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    Post  lyle6 Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:19 pm

    Ispan wrote:A short article commenting a war correspondent take on the tactical problem of fighting in the steppe

    https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/10/16/el-problema-tactico-de-la-lucha-en-los-campos/

    Russia's counter-battery game is on point. Ukraine didn't lose the majority of its 1800 tube and rocket artillery pieces from Soviet stocks without outside help. The Russians just don't have enough troops on the ground (and the attendant artillery and ISR support) to exploit the breaches they make through the Ukrainian defense. They are playing it safe on the defense where their firepower advantage can be maximized shooting at enemy troops exposed in the open. Its better than the Ukrainian approach of sending wave after wave of conscripts just so their counter-battery can hear the Russian guns sing at least.


    Last edited by lyle6 on Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:27 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Backman
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    Post  Backman Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:23 pm

    With embassys emptying out and troop trains arriving , when do ppl think this attack is going to happen ?

    At any moment now or in a couple weeks still ?
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    Post  AMCXXL Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:29 pm

    Arrow wrote:

    Podlodka77 This MiG-31 don't have Kinzhal hanging. This can of course be changed quickly Very Happy

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #29 - Page 15 56fdd7300527

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #29 - Page 15 FfMQ5Y6XEAE9FZz?format=jpg&name=large

    It is a MiG-31I(K) of the Savasleyka regiment, it looks like the blue Nº30, and the coat of arms of the Long Range Aviation can be seen
    If it does not have a missile, it is because it has already been thrown, and it returns to the base to reload

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    Post  famschopman Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:32 pm

    Backman wrote:Our source in the OP said that the General Staff, based on MI6 intelligence, requested to urgently prepare additional mobilization of Ukrainians into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

    That would be the 9th(?) mobilization for Ukraine. You have to wonder how many they have left to serve and how much longer the people are going to accept their government following US orders and sending their offspring on kamikaze runs.

    It's sad actually; so many families destroyed and I'm sure most of these guys don't really have a choice either. The ones that wanted to fight volunteered.

    It's like feeding a chihuahua to my dog; I already know how it will end.


    Last edited by famschopman on Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:33 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Mir
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    Post  Mir Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:33 pm

    Hole wrote:
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #29 - Page 15 Ffjx0c10
    Laughing

    That is just fucking hilarious! Laughing Laughing Laughing

    Expect more of this during Rolling Thunder Arrow

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    Post  ucmvulcan Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:40 pm

    Backman wrote:With embassys emptying out and troop trains arriving , when do ppl think this attack is going to happen ?

    At any moment now or in a couple weeks still ?

    I'd say 9 November. The American propaganda machine is already playing the Viagara Batallions (so that's what the V means, I kid I kid) and they will be creating a frenzy all the way up to election day. So 9 November. Or, maybe this evening. Alas I haven't asked and the MOD isn't going to say

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:52 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Isos wrote:Iskander too expensive for mass production in huge numbers. Funny they could build such missiles easily but they invested in weapons they will never use like Burevestnik nuk missile or poseidon torpedo.

    Pretty dumb to remove Toshka from service also. It was a very good system and cheaper than iskander.


    Rob Lee
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    "An intelligence assessment shared in recent days with Ukrainian and U.S. officials contends that Iran’s armaments industry is preparing a first shipment of Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles, two well-known Iranian short-range ballistic missiles" to Russia

    What can a Tochka do that a Smerch can't?

    And Tochka missiles have reached their withdraw-by date. They're solid fuel, only lasting about 30 years or so.

    I guess it's possible to revamp the facilities and produce new rockets; but for the same expense and trouble why not produce missiles for a new system instead?

    Missiles for tochka are cheaper to produce than iskanders. They are simplier.

    Luna-M/frog-7 is a good cheap basis to a new cheap system with better precision. That's what Iran successfully developed.

    MLRS cover an area with frag warhead. Ballistic missiles are precision weapons that take out entire buildings. Two different systems. MLRS can't replace BM.

    With a more modern solid fuel, they could have a tochka with 250km range. Plenty of target in that range.

    Iskander is not produced in huge quantity. No matter what ypu say. Just go check iranian underground stock bases, they have thousands of missiles inside of them and plenty of such bases. Iskander use too many components and its production is way slower and more complicated than dumb BM with a cheap guidance system in the head.

    Most of the targets, even nato once, require just a good accuracy. And MLRS can't do the work against them.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:55 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:
    Isos wrote:Ukraine bombing the shit out of Belgorod. How many HIMARS do they have ? 10 ? What would happen if they face the hundreds of US himars ? They are defenceless against them. Ukraine firing in middle of the day accross the border and russia can't find them with the mighty Zala drones.

    They need iranian satellites.

    Have you lost your brain overnight?

    There will be a response.

    They will attack fixed targets but not HIMARS.

    And that's the whole point of a mobile long-range MLRS with precision-fire rounds

    Do you suppose NATO will do any better against Smerches?

    The Tochkas too have been giving trouble to Russia in terms of hunting them down. Because they can be fired, driven off and hidden.

    Nevertheless they and the HIMARS are slowly being ground down, a system here a system there. And no terror strikes against Belgorod city or its civilian airport will change the course of events

    Russian smerch are being destroyed by Ukr. Nato will be able too. Meanwhile russia strughle with ukrainian himars and will struggle with US ones.

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    Post  kvs Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:56 pm

    Backman wrote:With embassys emptying out and troop trains arriving , when do ppl think this attack is going to happen ?

    At any moment now or in a couple weeks still ?

    Makes me think that all the talk about "rasputitsa" putting a clamp on military campaigns is not close to the mark. Seems
    like some sort of action is imminent and it is not just the missile attacks.

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:01 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Backman wrote:With embassys emptying out and troop trains arriving , when do ppl think this attack is going to happen ?

    At any moment now or in a couple weeks still ?

    Makes me think that all the talk about "rasputitsa" putting a clamp on military campaigns is not close to the mark.   Seems
    like some sort of action is imminent and it is not just the missile attacks.


    They say they have 10k soldiers in Belorussia. Not enough. And the mobilized still have not ended their training.

    Another 2 or 3 week will be needed.

    IMO they won't attack Kiev again. They send troops close to NATO border to anticipate an attack from Poland.

    I wouldn't be surprised if pictures of nuks are shared from Minsk. Nato has steped up its rethoric about attacking Russia. In the same time they make ukrainian believe they will attack, they will need to move forces from donbass.
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:18 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:What new offensive are you talking about, FP?

    Well

    What with the Ukrainians blowing up bridges to Belarus just last week, the mass cruise-missile strikes against power transmission and other infrastructure, the instructions of assorted foreign embassies towards evacuating their citizens from Kiev, the reports of Russian forces deploying to Belarus, the mobilization effort now yielding its first batches of ready troops, and the 2 prior months of Ukrainian offensives now having sputtered out and seemingly out of fresh reserves

    Would all create rather the juxtaposition of favorable circumstances and telling events for a coming, if not imminent Russian offensive - would you not agree?

    About the only thing unfavorable would probably be the weather; but then Soviet/Russian armored vehicles can be navigated through the rains and mud of the East European steppes and plains rather more aptly than the HMMWVs and M113s can.

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    Post  Arrow Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:24 pm

    , the reports of Russian forces deploying to Belarus, wrote:

    10k Russian troops are planned in Belarus. This is far too little for any offensive. If there are 100k, then you can discuss Smile
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:29 pm

    Isos wrote:Russian smerch are being destroyed by Ukr. Nato will be able too. Meanwhile russia strughle with ukrainian himars and will struggle with US ones.


    That's just blatant trolling on your part

    What exactly makes this mythical HIMARS creature any harder to locate, detect or destroy than a Smerch?

    It's just the same truck with an a rotating pod of launch tubes fixed to the bed

    Smerches are typically used differently in Russian service, than the HIMARS are as almost guerilla-warfare instruments in Ukrainian service; that much is true. But that's a matter of doctrine. The Smerch equipped with guided rounds can do more or less same things in the same way if the Russians require such (they don't; they already have overwhelming precision weapon superiority from a large variety of platforms).

    I have not noticed the Ukraine in fact destroying any Russian Smerch systems at all. No reports, and no photos. With what means would they even strike one, one would foremost ask?

    Whereas Russia has reported on the destruction of a number of HIMARS systems. Being as they are however, situated typically up to 100km or even more behind enemy lines - you should not wait around for photographic proof. Simply either accept it as an article of faith or don't accept it; but regardless don't waste my time here with foundless accusations further, because the burden of proof can be demanded upon both ways..

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:36 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Isos wrote:Russian smerch are being destroyed by Ukr. Nato will be able too. Meanwhile russia strughle with ukrainian himars and will struggle with US ones.


    That's just blatant trolling on your part

    What exactly makes this mythical HIMARS creature any harder to locate, detect or destroy than a Smerch?

    It's just the same truck with an a rotating pod of launch tubes fixed to the bed

    Smerches are typically used differently in Russian service, than the HIMARS are as almost guerilla-warfare instruments in Ukrainian service; that much is true. But that's a matter of doctrine. The Smerch equipped with guided rounds can do more or less same things in the same way if the Russians require such (they don't; they already have overwhelming precision weapon superiority from a large variety of platforms).

    I have not noticed the Ukraine in fact destroying any Russian Smerch systems at all. No reports, and no photos. With what means would they even strike one, one would foremost ask?

    Whereas Russia has reported on the destruction of a number of HIMARS systems. Being as they are however, situated typically up to 100km or even more behind enemy lines - you should not wait around for photographic proof. Simply either accept it as an article of faith or don't accept it; but regardless don't waste my time here with foundless accusations further, because the burden of proof can be demanded upon both ways..

    Idk. I have seen lot of pictures of Smerch being destroyed, just yesterday I saw two side by side. But I never saw any himars.

    Ukrainians seem to use them much better than russians.

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    Post  flamming_python Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:37 pm

    Arrow wrote:

    10k Russian troops are planned in Belarus. This is far too little for any offensive. If there are 100k, then you can discuss Smile

    Well, if you are really naive enough to think that any of the numbers floating around publicly correspond to reality on the eve of even the prospect of an offensive

    Then by all means, take them at their word, whoever 'them' are pirat

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:37 pm

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:38 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    That's just blatant trolling on your part

    For the last few days, more and more folks were just getting the message that it is a mental issue already.
    No chance to recover.
    Most blocked him.
    Yet, here is you for the rescue!

    BTW, for me, it looks that the army grouping in Belarus is to make noise and pressure only. And cool down some hot heads in NATO, they have already outnumbered them by the 1:2 ratio and can turn the pressure up if needed.

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    Post  flamming_python Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:48 pm

    Isos wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    Isos wrote:Russian smerch are being destroyed by Ukr. Nato will be able too. Meanwhile russia strughle with ukrainian himars and will struggle with US ones.


    That's just blatant trolling on your part

    What exactly makes this mythical HIMARS creature any harder to locate, detect or destroy than a Smerch?

    It's just the same truck with an a rotating pod of launch tubes fixed to the bed

    Smerches are typically used differently in Russian service, than the HIMARS are as almost guerilla-warfare instruments in Ukrainian service; that much is true. But that's a matter of doctrine. The Smerch equipped with guided rounds can do more or less same things in the same way if the Russians require such (they don't; they already have overwhelming precision weapon superiority from a large variety of platforms).

    I have not noticed the Ukraine in fact destroying any Russian Smerch systems at all. No reports, and no photos. With what means would they even strike one, one would foremost ask?

    Whereas Russia has reported on the destruction of a number of HIMARS systems. Being as they are however, situated typically up to 100km or even more behind enemy lines - you should not wait around for photographic proof. Simply either accept it as an article of faith or don't accept it; but regardless don't waste my time here with foundless accusations further, because the burden of proof can be demanded upon both ways..

    Idk. I have seen lot of pictures of Smerch being destroyed, just yesterday I saw two side by side. But I never saw any himars.

    Ukrainians seem to use them much better than russians.

    Let's see those pictures. I'm genuinely interested

    As for how they use them - it's not a big secret, I'll fill you in.

    Russia uses them as typical divisional artillery. They move around as batteries and divisions, take part in fire missions according to the orders of the division, corps, army or whoever.
    Ammo is supplied to them regularly and as needed.
    Don't know what their policy on relocation and such is. But they'll be able to relocate at will without thinking about whether they will be detected by the enemy. Moving will always be preferable to hiding.
    All this basically facilitates their use as a long-range MLRS system for use against enemy formations.

    The Ukraine meanwhile uses them individually, splitting them up, hiding them, probably with a separate command for each one.
    Most of the time they'll be spent in hiding, other than when called upon to destroy a target. Relocation will probably happen at night.
    Ammo will be supplied when possible, could turn out to be a constraining factor as any resupply vehicles can themselves be detected and tracked. So likely they will be highly conservative with their ammo usage.
    And basically this mode of operation will facilitate their use against point-targets and stationary ones. Airbases, ammo depots, cities, prisons full of Azov prisoners, whatever.
    They will be more survivable this way.
    However they won't be much good against an enemy advance or to use as conventional MLRS artillery.

    Now as to why Russia doesn't use its Smerches as the Ukraine does its HIMARS - well essentially because it has plenty of available launch platforms for hitting point, stationary targets already. Russia has Iskanders, Bastions, Kalibrs, Kh-32s, Kh-555s, Kh-101s, Kh-59s, Kh-29s, and a selection of other means to destroy those sorts of targets without actually having to play hide & seek with long-range MLRS systems. Safer too.
    While on the other hand, the fact that the Ukraine uses the HIMARS in this manner - is the exact same reason why they use Tochka-Us the same way. That is, they have no other tools for striking Russian targets at long range but these. Unless you count the planes that they sometimes send out and that often get shot down on their 1st sortie.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:51 pm; edited 2 times in total

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    Post  Arrow Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:49 pm

    Well, if you are really naive enough to think that any of the numbers floating around publicly correspond to reality on the eve of even the prospect of an offensive Then by all means, take them at their word, whoever 'them' are pirat wrote:

    You're right. Although I believe that the transport of a large number of troops to Belarus, about 100k army, would be hard to hide. These are huge amounts of equipment etc.
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    Post  ALAMO Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:51 pm

    Virgin Marry and the Holy Spirit, are you REALLY want to quote someone who is obviously mentally ill? scratch
    Asking seriously.

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    Post  flamming_python Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:53 pm

    ALAMO wrote:Virgin Marry and the Holy Spirit, are you REALLY want to quote someone who is obviously mentally ill? scratch
    Asking seriously.

    Don't blame him, he's been possessed by Vann7

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    Post  sepheronx Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:55 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    ALAMO wrote:Virgin Marry and the Holy Spirit, are you REALLY want to quote someone who is obviously mentally ill? scratch
    Asking seriously.

    Don't blame him, he's been possessed by Vann7

    The soul of Vann has possessed one of our friends.

    Better get a priest, we need an exorcism here.

    He is already speaking drivel and spewing out green goop.

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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:59 pm

    Backman wrote:With embassys emptying out and troop trains arriving , when do ppl think this attack is going to happen ?

    At any moment now or in a couple weeks still ?
    The warnings to citizens of certain countries have already been left to leave the country. Almost the same time. This suggests a warning from Moscow to them.

    The announcements from Belarus are more and more clear.
    Only Ukraine would help every day longer and NATO would make it easier for NATO.

    I therefore expect the next week. Especially since every foreigner is already trying to break away from Ukraine. Nobody has to be cut off in Ukraine.

    President Putin would like to meet the Security Council in the coming days. There will be the order of operation "2" at the latest.

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    Post  ALAMO Sun Oct 16, 2022 7:01 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    ALAMO wrote:Virgin Marry and the Holy Spirit, are you REALLY want to quote someone who is obviously mentally ill? scratch
    Asking seriously.

    Don't blame him, he's been possessed by Vann7

    The soul of Vann has possessed one of our friends.

    Better get a priest, we need an exorcism here.

    He is already speaking drivel and spewing out green goop.

    Yes I do remember Isos in a way he used to be.
    A genuine pain in the ass, a fanboy, but still a sane guy.
    Someone we can disagree with, but still, have a nice & funny discussion.
    What we see now is some bloody madness.
    A stolen account? dunno

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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sun Oct 16, 2022 7:02 pm

    You will not see a major offensive next week, that's way to soon and the new troops they need aren't in position yet. Maybe next month or the month after that

    If it was next week, you'd see data by now of the large scale formations pretty much in place and other countries talking about it.

    Half a million men with all the gear and vehicles cannot be hidden from sates.


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