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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #29

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    calripson


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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #29 - Page 10 Empty Infrared signature

    Post  calripson Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:01 pm

    Dr.Snufflebug wrote:
    Isos wrote:It doesn't even have a thermal signature. It's a nightmare for AD.


    Of course it has a thermal signature, it has an internal combustion engine that runs quite hot (you wouldn't want to touch the cylinder heads while it's running).

    But, it's small and not easily reliably targeted at a distance by everyday legacy systems. Perhaps they even do a terminal unpowered glide flight, so the little IR signature shrinks even more.

    There are for sure IR missiles that can effectively lock onto them with super sensitive and accurate IR imaging seekers, but they cost at least $500,000 a piece, while a Dorito costs like what, 15 grand.

    Wouldn't a simple solution to a small engine's infrared signature be to constantly spray the exterior surface with methanol ?
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:03 pm

    Hole wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:There will be an offensive, but only once Ukrainian reserves are sufficiently depleted

    What I thought 1.5 months ago, but didn't want to write publicly, is that Russia will continue to deplete Ukrainian numbers by encouraging them to go on the offensive.
    But not only that - that then once their new NATO trained forces and mercs are expended, Russia will advance on Kiev again which will force the Ukrainians to decide whether to urgently send what men they have ready to defend it, or keep manning the defensive lines in the Donbass, Kharkov and Kherson regions.
    They won't be able to manage both, and either Kiev will fall or the way will be open for a painless advance from the south all along the line for Russia
    This time the forces in the North won´t be a feint or part of a political gamble or whatever. They will be real.

    If the Bandera regime takes forces from the South and South-East the four new russian regions there will be liberated completely + Nikolaev, Odessa and Dnjepropetrovsk. If the regime keeps the troops there it will loose some northern regions + the North-East (Kharkov, Sumi and Chernishev).

    My bet: the regime will act as before and send some forces from the South to the North. With this half-measure the whole liberation campaign in the South will take a few days longer but in the end the regime will loose at both ends of 404.

    Attempts at such a compromise will just mean losing both.
    Last time they didn't compromise, they sent enough to Kiev to keep the Russians from directly assaulting the city, or even completing its encirclement. It would have incurred too many casualties.
    They had enough left however to also keep most of the group in the Donbass front and Odessa (they diverted to Kiev mostly from Western and central Ukraine), and had mobilization waves and NATO mercs on the way.

    None of this is on the horizon however this time.
    I believe they will divert all forces to Kiev, they will not risk their seat of government falling, not to mention seat of railway junctions, seat of oligarchy, seat of western-sourced virtual finances, seat of propagandists, seat of foreign presstitutes, seat of visiting European dignitaries, and all these other seats, that they rely on to keep the war effort, the virtual economy and the state going.

    While they can continue the war if they lose Kiev, with a Ukrainian government in exile or in Lvov, it will be a severe blow to them and rob them of most of their soft-power, info-war and other psychological means - most of those specialists are based in Kiev. It will also shake their morale to the extent that now the war will be perceived to shift to a mop-up operation against pro-regime forces, rather than some all-national struggle that is going full steam ahead at present as always.

    Losing their southern defensive lines however is not as critical, and it will be some time before any cities will accept surrender or be assaulted regardless. It will be something they will give up long before their capital.
    Basically as long as they have Kiev, and have power to it running - they can continue the war from their side full-force with the full apparatus of the state at their disposal.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:10 pm; edited 3 times in total

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    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:04 pm

    Tolstoy wrote:


    To be honest, could just as easily be a Russian staged video, about Ukrainians staging videos
    Aha! unshaven

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:07 pm

    ... but that are no Russkie who are staging the videos on a mass scale, right? Laughing

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    Firebird


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    Post  Firebird Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:08 pm

    ALAMO wrote:
    thegopnik wrote:

    You know that you are in the Netherlands when cows are getting prettier than girls.
    Checked multiple times  Laughing  Laughing  Laughing

    In fairness they were 3 uberskanks. So he dodged some real shit on his shoes.

    I live in Britain. We've seen an attempt at radicalisation of the general population much like Hitler (and his descendents like "Argentinian Guard") who decided to demonise 8 m or more Jews.

    The Western media are largely nothing but scum.
    I actually saw a BLACK TV news reporter on mainstream British news giving Kiev the Nazi Germany name of "Kieff".
    Absolute filth.

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    Post  zorobabel Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:10 pm

    Ukraine using 4 Su-27s as close air support in the Kherson. Reeks of desperation. Hopefully a couple were downed today.

    https://t.me/Slavyangrad/14555
    Podlodka77
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    Post  Podlodka77 Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:33 pm

    thegopnik wrote:Finally get to see these babies used.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Sprinter99880/status/1581295132057686017?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1581295132057686017%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url= penicillin EW system.


    No Gopnik, "penicillin" is not enough for yellow and blue mules, you also need Kalibrilin, Kinzhalinin, Geraninin, Lancetilin, etc..

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    Hole
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    Post  Hole Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:02 pm

    Mir wrote:
    Hole wrote:
    The Union Army Group in Belarus will propably consist of 70.000 soldiers from Belarus + up to 50.000 from Russia, at least to some dudes on Twitter/Telegram

    Problem is according to Twatter the Belorussian boys are banned from leaving the country! Rolling Eyes Laughing
    They´re allowed to go to Russia. This means there will be a law made in Russia in the next days that will declare the whole of 404 to be part of Russia. Problem solved. 

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #29 - Page 10 Ffh5gm10
    Forces are located somewhere here.  Very Happy

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    Post  Hole Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:13 pm

    Dr.Snufflebug wrote:There are for sure IR missiles that can effectively lock onto them with super sensitive and accurate IR imaging seekers, but they cost at least $500,000 a piece, while a Dorito costs like what, 15 grand.
    Strela-10 could do the job.  Very Happy

    To be precise: against the Russian AD network these drones would be useless. But except Russia not many countries got such an AD network, maybe China and Iran.

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    Post  Hole Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:18 pm

    flamming_python wrote:Here again, if Russia advances on Kiev it will present a credible threat. And leave it to the decision of the Ukrainian and NATO command whether to shore up the city's defense at the expense of all their defensive lines along the southern front - or not. It's like that old move in chess of advancing a knight so as to either take the king or the rook next turn. Or queen or rook in this case perhaps, as the regime on NATO life-support can survive the fall of its capital.
    The aim will not be to take Kiev but the northern regions as pathway to the western and central ones. Maybe they block Kiev but after that they will ignore it for a while.

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    Post  Hole Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:19 pm

    ALAMO wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    Or was it a mirrage

    I guess it was bud scratch
    There are more and more indications for that.
    Yeah, sure, they could have occupy & stabilize the Kiev once the regime felt down, but you can't get such a huge metropoly with the army group they had there back there.
    It is impossible.
    I have been to Kiev, remember how it looks like.
    It is a bloody 100 km of continuous infrastructure.
    The Soviet one.
    Divided by the lakes, rivers, Dnepr bays ...
    No bloody way to contest that without erasing from the map with 50k soldiers - and that is what they had there back then.
    Tell that Kadyrov. He would try it with 5.000 men.  Laughing Laughing Laughing

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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:21 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Pantsir is the reason we don't see Bayraktar TB2 flights anymore

    Probably 100 Tb2 were destroyed by Pantsir alone

    Anyway, without Rotax engines it will be hard to produce anymore tb 2

    Got some good hits early in war against unimportant targets, but IADS of pantsir and Buk were too much for those systems

    Including Tochka U, Bayraktar, HIMARS , Smerch , Uragan, and other such systems

    What Russians need is an IED detector to stop car and truck bombings, because those did much more than what a HIMARS could not
    TB2? Who talks about the useless Turkish drones? I mean the Shahed 136. It is much more difficult to get down. The Iranians have problems in training even with TorM1.
    The Shahed 136 is the bad dream of the fascists and NATO.

    4xSu-27 ? How have they survived so far?


    Last edited by Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E on Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:22 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  Hole Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:21 pm

    flamming_python wrote:While they can continue the war if they lose Kiev, with a Ukrainian government in exile or in Lvov.
    If the regime can get to Lvov.  Twisted Evil

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    Post  Hole Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:24 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #29 - Page 10 Ffh3qg11
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #29 - Page 10 Ffh3qg10
    Wagnerites, former convicts. Or still convicts until the end of the SMO?  scratch
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #29 - Page 10 Ffh3qg12
    There maps are a little bit dated.  tongue

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    Post  Hole Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:28 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #29 - Page 10 Ffinae11
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #29 - Page 10 Ffinae10
    Those assaults are really masterpieces of tactical planning.

    According to some sources (the typical doomsdayers) in the morning the UkroNazis ammassed up to 60.000 fighters in the South. Then they attacked with 2 battalions. Not the first time. It seems they can´t manage much more troops at once. Very limited command and control capacities, no more artillery support and even less fuel and ammo that can be delivered "just in time".

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    Post  Tolstoy Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:34 pm

    flamming_python wrote:To be honest, could just as easily be a Russian staged video, about Ukrainians staging videos
    Aha! unshaven
    Unlikely.
    West hasn't made any such allegation and they generally do not need any evidence to make allegations against Russia.

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    Post  Hole Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:38 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #29 - Page 10 Ffifbk10
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #29 - Page 10 Ffifbz10
    Better pics from Sewastopol

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    Post  Backman Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:51 pm

    The CIA is working 24/7 shifts to give Russia cheapshots. Every 2 weeks there seems to be another one. Every since the war started. Russia should respond in kind with covert terrorism on US targets.

    There was a shooting at a Belgrod training base. 11 killed , more injured. Tajik nationals , 3 of them

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    Post  ucmvulcan Sat Oct 15, 2022 10:08 pm

    Backman wrote:The CIA is working 24/7 shifts to give Russia cheapshots. Every 2 weeks there seems to be another one. Every since the war started. Russia should respond in kind with covert terrorism on US targets.

    There was a shooting at a Belgrod training base. 11 killed , more injured. Tajik nationals , 3 of them

    I don't know about the US, that is a direct act of war, no plausible deniability. If I were Putin I would have Iranian drones attack some of the NATO troops in eastern Syria.

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    Post  Podlodka77 Sat Oct 15, 2022 10:12 pm

    * 21:40 🇷🇺🇧🇾 Russian troops continue to arrive in Belarus, which are part of the regional group of troops

    https://t.me/intelslava/39267

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    Post  sepheronx Sat Oct 15, 2022 10:17 pm

    A lot of the FSB needs to be fired honestly.

    Then again, it kinda points to a previous viewpoint is that you can't trust foreigners within the military or even volunteers. Tajiks are gonna face trouble eventually.

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    Post  Stealthflanker Sat Oct 15, 2022 11:01 pm

    Podlodka77 wrote:* 21:40 🇷🇺🇧🇾 Russian troops continue to arrive in Belarus, which are part of the regional group of troops

    https://t.me/intelslava/39267

    I guess they'll be more careful and ruthless this time. I would expect Ukrainian to lie many traps, pre-arranged artillery strike points and surveillance. Locals might also not necessarily be cooperative.
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    Post  famschopman Sat Oct 15, 2022 11:01 pm

    You can’t FSB every risk away

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    Post  Regular Sat Oct 15, 2022 11:05 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Tolstoy wrote:


    To be honest, could just as easily be a Russian staged video, about Ukrainians staging videos
    Aha! unshaven

    They are just filming some shitty war commercial, not staging anything.

    Hence the turret move and SFX cues.

    Ukrainians fake like crazy, but this is not the case.

    Hole wrote:
    There maps are a little bit dated.  tongue
    Topographical ones? No. Soviet maps are still being used by Ukrainians themselves.
    If you are in artillery, then it could be blank paper with grids for what they care.

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    Post  DerWolf Sat Oct 15, 2022 11:09 pm

    Stealthflanker wrote:
    Podlodka77 wrote:* 21:40 🇷🇺🇧🇾 Russian troops continue to arrive in Belarus, which are part of the regional group of troops

    https://t.me/intelslava/39267

    I guess they'll be more careful and ruthless this time.  I would expect Ukrainian to lie many traps, pre-arranged artillery strike points and surveillance.  Locals might also not necessarily be cooperative.
    Could the target not be Kiev but western ukraine just to block western supply?

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