Iran is far ahead of Russia.
They didn't invent any component here.... they just put existing pieces of technology and equipment together to form a useful and efficient system for use against a damaged country.
There is no evidence such a drone would be useful against Russian troops who are better equipped to deal with air threats, but that is not important.
Russia is using Israelis drones and now appears to be licence producing an Iranian type of drone too... nothing new... they are also making lots of things originally designed outside Russia, whether that is Thales designed thermal imagers, or british designed water pumps or swedish recipe breakfasts... doesn't really matter either way... a purely monetary transaction to buy the technology production licence... for all we know Russia might have materials and components that make it and other drones better they could have traded and cooperated with Russia over this.
This might be part of a very large deal that includes Su-35 fighters and S-350 type SAMs... Iran already produces Kornet and an Igla variant AFAIK, so this is all perfectly normal... I don't understand why some are making such a big deal.
Would like to see more cooperation and trust, but we will see.
Irans offical stance is to not choose sides and say that peace is the best answer... which is what Russia has wanted for the last 8 years but clearly and openly Kiev has not.
They might want it now before they lose it all but it makes little sense for Russia to stop now.
It is a very subjective statement. Iran is ahead in light drones. Russia is clearly ahead in heavy drones.
And also likely materials and composites and metalurgy and is working on a full range of new electric motors as well. (important for silent drones)
Geran-2 surely made some of us who didn't believe the deal or value that it will bring look stupid. I was very skeptical, but results speak for themselves. Not only Ukraine can't stop these attacks, but the fear and the damage they bring are comparable to cruise missile attacks - for a fraction of a cost.
Used from the start of the war they might have developed tactics and used existing air defences at the time to make them look bad.
Now is the perfect time for them, but you can bet that HATO will now be scrambling to create their own TOR and Pantsir and SOSNA type weapons...
These Iranian weapons have been good but it does show that Russia is running low on their own missiles right now, proving the West right at least for the time being sadly.
We have seen these Russian made Iranian drones on Orc phones... we saw Lancet attacks filmed from above by Russian drones... these Iranian designed drones are hitting Ukrainian civilian areas at long range beyond the range of the air defence systems the Orcs have on their front lines. In comparison the Russian drones are operating on the front lines and directly hitting enemy equipment and troops on and near the front line... a very different job.
if there was a 300km buffer, no need to have air defense posted at every town, just IED search
But that is the problem... there is no 300km buffer between Kaliningrad and Poland... as Russian troops go on the offensive and push the orcs back the new territory they take will have civilians that the orcs will target... for the first periods of the pushes the locals will want the fighting to end and think becoming part of the Russian federation is the fastest way to get their bridges and roads and rail lines and houses and infrastructure fixed.
Once they declare themselves neutral or want to join the Russian Federation the orcs will shell them too so you need another 300km push... can they stop when they reach the English Channel?
push them back from the border , thats all
They are preparing to likely push them back but also encircle enormous volumes of enemy troops which they will then crush... either exterminating the contents or accepting surrender en mass...
they took over 6000 deaths to take Liman, a reinforcements of a brigade or even 2 battalions would have been enough
It is easy to second guess... they might have only gotten 2,000 deaths if those positions were reinforced, they might have shifted their attacks somewhere else that might have had to retreat instead and cause problems in other more heavily populated areas.
push them back, reduce their strike ability
So that is all they had to do all these 8 years... just push them back to make their artillery weaker.... why didn't they realise it was so easy and so obvious?
we both know they can be pushed from the border easily, if not something is wrong with the army
If it was so easy they likely would have done it... but maybe they don't want to push them back at all... maybe they want to encircle them and cut off their support and deal with their artillery support using the pincer forces that entrap the forward deployed bulk of their army?
because the effect of hitting a russian airport says a lot, not that technology is failing, but that the strategy is
No strategy would make the Orcs impotent and unable to act in any way... except perhaps nuking America and the money stops.
You think of this like it is a three powerful people taking on a single weak person... you think Russia has six strong arms to hold down two weak arms and two weak legs, but you are wrong.
Think a million arms and a million legs and all acting independently and needing to be controlled... they don't have enough resources to just watch them all let alone do anything to stop anything obvious or not so obvious.
You can put the most dynamic and capable and young and fit tennis players on a doubles tennis court and any opposition players can hit the ball into their court... might even score some points when it is their serve or against serve.
Doesn't make them shit... just recognises even having two people on a tennis court you can't cover all the angles and all the variables and alternative potential shots the other team might launch at you.
Even if one team only has one player they could still score some points.
we both know Russia can push these nazis back by using more brutal shelling and bombing methods, but if you want more russian casualties, let is be so
That is the point trying to push the enemy back creates more risk for Russian soldiers... letting the enemy attack and withdrawing and shelling and shooting them as they withdraw means minimum risk to friendly soldiers and max risk to the enemy... it allows a much better kill loss ratio than having to attack enemy positions and push them out of them... especially with the current balance of numbers of the battlefield.
They are just too expensive to use against small targets in huge numbers.
They have enough different weapon types to hit a wide range of targets and are not running out.
None of the Russian weapons are expensive... that is just silly.
They spend less every year on their military than the UK... if they were paying the same price for cruise missiles that the west does how many could they possibly afford?
Add to this they don't use dumb bombs all over ukraine from su-34, they needed a solution. Iranian drobes are that solution.
The targets you would direct a drone with what... a 30kg warhead, are hardly a target you would use dumb bombs against.
The Su-34 has continuously computed impact point nav attack system and can drop dumb bombs and fire dumb rockets in free manouver flight with excellent accuracy... for targets they can get close to dumb bombs would be ideal for hard targets where two 500kg bombs can destroy things lighter weapons would not damage.
It is a question of using the right tools for the job.
Russians should have known that and after seeing the good results of suicide drones by azeri against Armenia, they should have invested quickly in their own Kub and Lancet.
The rate they are using them now I would say they did and likely also did plenty of testing in Syria too with their own and also likely Chinese and Iranian drones for testing and evaluation purposes.
Until now, I am not aware of any real evidence of the alleged use of Iranian weapons by Russia in Ukraine.
I only see some analysts, commenting, but they are just rumors, without real proof.
Maybe I'm wrong.
If anyone can put up any proof of Iranian arms aid, I'd be grateful.
The west are calling them Iranian drones, but they seem to be Iranian designed but Russian made drones.
Iran has stated it has not supplied drones, which is not to say Russia is not licence producing Iranian designed drones in the same way they are also licence producing Israeli Forepost drones too.
The HIMARS is a really good system and caused some headaches for Russian units.
It is really the only western system that comes close to Soviet systems because the M270 it was based on was a dog.
HIMARS is more like SMERSHSki... but with half the missiles and reduced missile range... and probably still rather more expensive for what it is.
Only good western systems are Starlink communication system (it's a civilian system) and HIMARS.
HIMARS is taking a good idea and making it too expensive to be used in the volumes you want to use it in.
Rocket artillery traditionally was intended for use against area targets and was expected to deliver a wall or enormous concentration of HE and Fragments to a location rapidly, or to deliver chemical weapons because it can deliver enormous concentrations rapidly enough to be lethal quickly over a wide area.
With M270 and then HIMARs the Americans have tried to turn a sledge hammer into a scalpel.
Russia does not need a copy of HIMARS... the Grad and the Uragan and the Smerch are vastly better systems cheap enough to be built and used in the enormous numbers that make them so effective.
Russias equivalent to HIMARS and GMLRS is ground launched Hermes... which interestingly also has 6 launch tubes but is much smaller and lighter and reaches 100km with terminally guided missiles that manouver all the way to the target to evade interception like Iskander does and packing a 30kg multipurpose warhead.
HIMARS gets shot down against military targets and only appear useful against gaps in the air defence and civilian targets... it is a terror weapon like a scud but even more overhyped.
Unfortunately, the war will also be decided economically.
The Russians have a range of options including helicopters and aircraft and missiles and rockets... and drones... and are using all of them on different targets in different situations.
But what really amazes me is that Ukraine doesn't have guns to shoot down the Geran-2. Don't they really have any more ZSU-23-4? What do the "Gepard" tanks do? Where are they?
They had Tunguskas but didn't have parts and missiles so they destroyed a few early on pretending they were Russian vehicles.
They didn't get many Gepards... considering the size of the front line their chances of doing anything are small even with suitable AHEAD type air burst ammo.
ZSU-23-4 would probably struggle to hit targets that small because they lack air burst ammo.
Their biggest problem would be keeping track of them... turning on radar is asking to be destroyed...
Because of decades of sanctions, Iranians are masters at cheaply manufacturing weapons. Nowhere on the planet you find more bang for the buck than shopping in Iran!
They have world class engineers, but their glass ceiling is their lack of access to brand new state of the art technology, so they upgrade F-5s, but they are as clever as any engineers anywhere, and have had to be very resourceful too.
As I wrote the Iskander is 85 % complete overkill! Against other opponents the drones might not be that useful but against Ukraine they are very helpful.
The Iskanders warhead is about 650kgs while these drones carry 30kg warheads... they are very different tools, though both are difficult for enemy air defences to deal with.
Iran needs no Su-57 or S-400! What they really need is a export market for their products.
I would think Iran would benefit from buying 100-150 Su-35s over the next 5-10 years and also licence producing MiG-29Ms in much larger numbers so they can finally withdraw their existing F-14s, F-4s, F-5s, and old model MiG-29s.
MiG-29Ms are supposed to be rather cheap to operate offering medium fighter range and performance for a light fighters operating costs...
Iran must thank Russia for excellent marketing!
There will be technology Iran wants like advanced thermal cameras and other equipment that is being blocked from the west that Russia could sell and trade... Iran has gas as well as oil and I would think they probably have a lot of minerals and other resources that have not been exploited yet... there are lots of areas Russia and Iran and cooperate in that will benefit both countries.
Iran vehemently denies supplying Russia and same does Russia itself. The truth is somewhere in the middle and both parties hinted at it - local production. Iran went as far as to say it was Zala group. So it's possible Iran sent initial tech and rest is local production.
Russia had troops in Syria for years with Iranian troops, they are people and would have compared stuff as far as they could and how could the Russians ignore the Iranian drones?
trying to get saudis friendly with iran is like trying to get the chinese to be friendly with india.
The whole point of BRICS is that you don't have to be friends it is just an agreement to free and fair and open trade.
India does not need to be best buddies with Pakistan or India, but they need to understand that fighting each other only weakens you both... something the US absolutely loves and not for Pakistans benefit and not for Indias benefit and not for Chinas benefit... for Americas benefit.
It is the same for everyone else... Iran and Saudi Arabia don't need to be best buddies but there are probably some ways they could actually help each other out if they chose to do so.
I mean right now Germany and Japan and France and Britain are all Americas bitch... wasn't that long ago they were murdering each other in this or that war and hated each others guts.
The difference is that with BRICS you don't have to give up your soverignty... you don't have to be Russias bitch or Chinas bitch... no other country will be telling you what you can or cannot do... they wont dictate to you about your human rights record... especially when theirs is no better or even worse...
I think the whole non western world is getting very tired of the "garden" and so they may on some things put some of their differences on hold.
Why do I get the feeling Guns'n'roses is going to be posted soon... Welcome to the Jungle....
I'll be honest, i think the Russian's are just trolling the West with these Iranian stuff.
Western airspace would not be better protected, and the fact that that drone can be launched from a normal looking truck that opens out and can launch those drones in significant numbers... the wests limited numbers of guns and SAMs will struggle to protect military targets let alone civilian infrastructure, so they will likely send up their air power which makes them targets for ambushes by mobile air defence vehicles, and even if they left them alone... $800 dollars a drone with perhaps a million dollar AMRAAM or Meteor used to take it out... who is going to run out of missiles first?
And of course they will shoot down any aircraft they can which would just compound their problem because their aircraft are both their attack and their defence so shooting down one plane damages their ability to do either.
Am not totally convinced about Russia buying Iranian missiles, drones yes the range of these missiles is fine but these the CEP arent great Zolfaghar is around 100m CEP, Fateh 110 around 100-150m CEP. There is a another version Fath 360 which claims around 30 CEP which is much better. Then there is a mod available which can be done to existing missiles called Fateh Mobin although no mention of CEP but is supposed to be GPS guided so should be more accurate. These types of missiles just like Tochka are good for targets where iskander is overkill. Iskander will be far more expensive than these types of missiles.
Assuming it is even true, one advantage of lots of rockets that have inertial guidance only is that they could use the ring laser gyros to dramatically reduce those CEPs and then just fire them in volume... a CEP of 30m is not great, but if the rocket is cheap enough fire 10 rockets which should ensure whatever you are aiming at will at least be damaged.
An IRIS-T missile system could be attacked with 20 FROG-7 equivalent rockets with 600km range... their 250kg warheads likely doing damage and at the very least will get the enemy to waste a lot of expensive and capable missiles on expendable threats to their existence.
Adding GLONASS guidance should also improve accuracy too but range might be what they are interested in... filling gaps created by their adherence to the INF treaty...
Something to just overwhelm and use up any new AD systems they might get from the west like ground launched AMRAAMs and IRS-T missiles etc.
While those systems engage the incoming threats Russian recon platforms can plot and monitor them.
Interesting that post by the orc who mentioned the Russians didn't just take out M777s and other artillery when they spotted them... they monitored where they went and how they operated and when they started operating in groups started attacking them... they are not idiots and this is not their first rodeo.
As for Russian stocks of Tochka they maybe a little low, remember that Russia has been sending it's stocks of these missiles to Syria for years now, and I highly doubt with iskander now fully replaced tochka in Russian forces would they continue to produce tochka rockets.
Rocket and also SAM production rates in the Soviet Union were eye watering... and they have enormous numbers in stock that they use for training targets for air defence forces. Missiles like SA-1, SA-2, SA-3, SA-6, SA-8 are all used as drone targets... SA-2, SA-4, SA-5 are all large enough you could put a decent sized warhead on board and use it as a surface to surface missile using command guidance it would actually be rather accurate too.
Tochka numbers were likely very large too... they understand getting production ramped up in war time is hard so having lots of rockets/missiles on hand in storage means no gaps when the weapons run out because rate of use exceeds rate of production.
There is also the Serbian Šumadija with the 400mm rocket version with a range of 285km with a CEP of around 30-50m. I see no shame in turning to allies to help with production or supply of such.
It is war... pride has nothing to do with this... plus I would think the allies would appreciate the income....
and the publicity of it being used successfully against a HATO proxy...
Bottom line is those cheap Iranian weapons are working and working really well. Bang for buck (no pun intended) they are the best money the Russian MOD ever spent.
Very true but it is amusing the west is upset about this... we already saw what were presumably these drones or something like them waltz through Saudi Air defences and hit oil infrastructure with impunity... and those air defences would not have been cheap and were a mix of European and US air defence gear...
Why wouldn't Russia want some of that.
Iran is under western sanctions... this is good trade for them.
Game changer? What has it done to really hurt the Ukrainian military? It can hit some infrastructure here and there but it can't really hurt the Ukrainian military. It's good but not a game changer imo.
They are embarrassed and are squealing for air defence equipment... and I am not sure AMRAAM or IRIS-T could find and track low flying drones passively... and if they have to scan with radar what do you think the Russians are going to do?
This is going to either expose Ukrainian air defence, or it is going to allow the Russians to hit targets they want to hit with drones instead of aircraft missiles... a modern fighter would burn more than $800 worth of fuel on a mission...
Either way these drones have the range to attack a wide range of targets which will also mean air defence systems will be taken away from the front line to try to protect oligarchs and people in power, and spreading them around like that will also make it easier to hit their front lines too.
But fact remains that Russia completely dropped the ball on drone production which is hardly a surprise considering that they have been willingly ignoring everything related to drones and pretending how they don't matter even though it was obvious that they very much do
I would say the opposite... I doubt they could have signed an agreement and started Russian production of these drones overnight... this was planned and put into motion months ago if not years.
At this point in the conflict with their forces overstretched and their AD weakened, sending in drones makes sense because it will reveal any air defence systems remaining and if it doesn't... if they keep hiding to save their own skins then the targets will get hit.
Either way is fine.
It will also mean they will have to spread their AD all over the place because the effective range of most systems against drones is short so you need lots of them... and scanning for drones will give them away real quick.
I understand lack of smaller missiles due to INF but they got no excuse for drones especially in Dorito market segment, fortunately Ayatollah came in with a clutch
They are using their own version of forepost for overwatch and lancet and other drones for attack... what they lacked was a really long range drone, which they now have in their inventory...
Tiltrotors with their better range & speed would have helped too, bringing supplies to & conducting medevacs from the front, not to mention SF ops.
Slow big fat easy targets are not worth developing except in the drone scale. Transport aircraft sized tiltrotors would be enormously vulnerable to ground fire, and not cheap to develop and produce.
Truth is noone knows from where the strike will come
And that is the point- the strike will come, but from where is anyone's guess
Isn't that a good idea from the Russian soldiers perspective?
And what is more important, as it is jet powered, it will create a visible signature, yet can be intercepted by the Igla or any other type of MANPAD the Ukrs get for free in thousands. But as it carries triple the warhead, the effects will be much more devastating.
Igla-S has a two colour seeker and can shoot down targets that don't have to be hot.
It also has a proximity fuse for use against small targets so direct hits are not needed to get the warhead to explode.
It triggers the already planted #hashtags of "evil hardhead ayatollahs" and all the crap produced towards Iran, which fades like a fog for everyone lucky enough to visit this great country and meet its people.
I am sure they will wear that hate like a badge with pride... the shit the west has inflicted on them over the years...
I was under the impression the mobilization troops were to be sent to relieve contract soldiers stationed in other parts of Russia.
How many years do you want this conflict to take?
Mobilised forces get a few months training.... but you want them to be sent to other parts of Russia to relieve contract soldiers already in service to send them to a few months training to prepare them for fighting in Ukraine... it would be spring before any more Russian troops arrive in Ukraine.
Mobilising troops that have had combat experience and were trained in specific areas are being mobilised and then given refresher training and then will be sent to the Ukraine... that is what they were mobilised for.
Now I have misgivings about how this is being handled. Sending green troops like this into conflict will result in huge losses.
But it is clearly HATO tactics for the Orcs so it must work well...
On military front - 0.
It is just big distraction.
It forces them to focus on air defence resources in major cities and areas... which reduces AD from other areas... and also forces AD to expose itself so it can be dealt with more easily.
And Russia's reputation as great power will of course go further down since country is desperate to use such weapons from countries like Iran lol - it is terrible for the PR on the global stage. So far Russia is happily digging more deep itself in the mud in Ukraine.
Most of the world don't think of Russia the way the west does, and nothing Russia could do would make the west like them, that ship has sailed... Russia cannot waste time worrying about that.
Russia already uses drones designed in Israel and thermal imager designed in France...
And to be clear in this conflict I am pro Ukraine, do not think there is anything meaningful for Russia to gain there and much more to lose. Russia had chance to finish this conflict in few early stages - but was not successful and thus everything after - now what is happening is just prolongation and negative for Russia.
Ironically the worst result for Russia would have been Kiev following the minsk agreements... Russia would keep Crimea but the terrible treatment of pro Russian Ukrainians in the Ukraine would continue and all sorts of shit like cutting off water to the crimea and other BS would also continue... not to mention the bio weapons labs in the Ukraine experimenting on Orc soldiers by western companies who do it there because they can do as they please there and are not bound by any moral or ethical rules and no international laws or rules seem to be observed... they can treat the Ukrainians like the own them... slaves.
But obviously you think the future of Ukraine is better with the US... look at Chechnia today...
Regarding West -those countries are in decline and are not angels either, still most of them have far superior societies compared to Russia and have much more organized institutions, rule of law etc and sadly Russia is falling behind more last 5-6 years. Before that was making huge gains and progress - not anymore.
But they are not better.... they are like upper class twats in England with huge houses and enormous properties and a beat up 40 year old landrover because they might own properly and houses but they have no money and can't afford a new vehicle let alone repairing their homes as they collapse around them.
The west lives so comfortably because they are living on stolen goods and are in hoc to the banks because they have borrowed past their eyeballs... their children and their childrens children and their children are going to have very hard lives because of the waste and excess of their parents...
Russia is one of the few countries living within its means and working to improve the lot of all its citizens instead of the richest 1 percent.
[quote]Ukrainians are useful idiots for the enemies of Russia. They die to fulfill the desires of these enemies. The Banderite disease
must be excised for the good of Ukrainians./quote]
The irony of me wanting Russia to kill nazis in Ukraine is that I am actually pro Ukraine too... Ukraine had a choice to be used as a pawn by the US or to continue to trade and have relations with the Russians to its east and the EU to its west... it chose the former and the consequence of being cannon fodder is lots of blood... not US blood... not EU blood... but that is the lot of cannon fodder... to bleed for your masters so your masters don't have to get blood stains off their clothes before tea and scones.
The Ukraine believed the wests shit despite all the evidence from the last few decades... the US wont even help their own poor get health care why the hell would the give a **** about the Ukraine... they can read a map... when the Soviet Union existed you guys were all Russians to them and to a degree you still are so why would they care about Russians killing Russian, or winding Russians in georgia or the Baltic states or the stans to fight against the country that calls itself the Russian federation...
But being used is your choice.
The US is even screwing the EU out of cheap energy from Russia, but the EU continues to follow orders too.
How can Russia lose?
Russia can lose by joining the international community and start following US orders...
So right now Russia is no where near losing anything.
If China would be smart they would send some SOF or other kind of specialists to Ukraine. Chinese soldiers have nearly ZERO combat experience...I think USA and pals would kick Chinas ass very hard in a conflict. They already missed the chance back then in Syria.
I have to agree, though I think sending Chinese forces to Syria... perhaps with Assad and the Kurds permission as a more neutral force to help them deal with ISIS together in a sort of coordinated effort and then perhaps look at talks to work it out without killing each other.
Real war costs lives... there is no way around that, but the experience is invaluable and if you find yourself in a real war then previous experience can save rather more lives than it cost to learn.
Syria was a much better conflict zone for the Russian forces to cut their teeth and learn some lessons, I think the Ukraine might be a bit more than China is ready to chew on just yet... when learning to swim don't just jump into the diving pool... that fucker is deep.
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Apparently, the final decision has been made on Ukraine. New maps were drawn, new plans were made. It is a pity that not publicly, but personnel changes were made. At the same time, the system of command and control of troops has changed and continues to change, and the fighters and commanders in the field have learned a lot and gained experience. In the coming weeks, the Ukrainian army will face unpleasant, deadly surprises, and by the end of next month we will understand the overall plan and its scope.
At the moment, we know about attacks on:
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