Russian special military operation in Ukraine #26

thegopnik wrote:I forgot that Gazprom still existed and Gazprom is the only way to get gas but that is through ukraine from russia. I think Europe would have to slow down supplies or weaken ukraines war effort if they want to get heated up in the winter which can be done if ukraine is uhhh you know taken care of. Now I have no idea if the US or Russia did it

They will get LNG from the US and Nordics, but both suppliers know how to make a good profit and so do the governments (tax income) and so do energy companies (.. we need to take into account risk a, risk b, uncertainty .. )

I still have a contract for the next 3 years against € 0,90 per m3 of gas but if I now have to sign a new one, I believe the latest price is € 3,94 per m3. Now that Uncle Sam blew up both pipelines' prices will skyrocket. Luckily my house is well isolated, and my yearly use is only approx. 750m3 and will manage even without but for sure this will hit European industries and they will have to incorporate higher cost of goods impacting competitiveness on the market.

I would not be surprised if a lot of the major energy reliant industries will be looking outside of Europe; that leads to loss of government income, brain drain, and so on. Everything is connected and so this will set of a chain of events that accumulate.

And some day we call it the "Former Soviet U..... Europe"

SeigSoloyvov wrote:There is no plan in terms of Liman IF that was a setup Russia would have launched the trap by now. Trying to say "you don't know the plan, they know more than us don't question them" is fanboy boot licking at its finest. You can insult, pull the "well did you apply for position in Kremlin" shit all you want it just makes you look ignorant is all and I laugh at it.

Now that clusteruck doesn't mean Russia lost the war, nor is anyone SAYING that.

What we have here is a case of the fanboys who cannot stand others calling out incompetent decisions and using the idiotic excuse "it's a plan duuuuur"

The reality is Russia could have avoided this entire situation if it merely moved in the spare troop it already has, that's the problem and THATS what's being called out this is a completely preventable situation well it was.

IMO they moved their forces because they had not enough soldiers and took the oportunity to do the referendums with ukrainian soldiers on the territory of Donbas to then declare war.

This way they mobilize and can legitimize attacks on key civilian infrastructures around all Ukraine.

With the forces they had it was clear they couldn't push ukrainians too far away. Now they adapted to the ukrainian counter offensive by changing the global strategy and situation.

With the 300k troop they might be able to reach the Dnepr in its entire lenght, cutting the country in two.

To push up until nato borders they will need another mobilization of at least 500k, and much more logistics.

thegopnik wrote:I forgot that Gazprom still existed and Gazprom is the only way to get gas but that is through ukraine from russia. I think Europe would have to slow down supplies or weaken ukraines war effort if they want to get heated up in the winter which can be done if ukraine is uhhh you know taken care of. Now I have no idea if the US or Russia did it

Some news today re that front. One of the Ukrainian lines has been shut down since early in the SMO and Gazprom said "no gas transit, no transit fee". Ukrainians shut it down as it passed through northern Luhansk and declared a "force majeure" as they didn't have control over the whole pipeline. Ukrainians trying to sue through Swedish and Swiss courts but Gazprom responded with a letter today that as both Sweden and Switzerland have shown that they are not a neutral party in this so Gazprom was rejecting them having any say. They also rejected the Ukrainian claim of "force majeure" as rubbish.

famschopman wrote:

thegopnik wrote:I forgot that Gazprom still existed and Gazprom is the only way to get gas but that is through ukraine from russia. I think Europe would have to slow down supplies or weaken ukraines war effort if they want to get heated up in the winter which can be done if ukraine is uhhh you know taken care of. Now I have no idea if the US or Russia did it

They will get LNG from the US and Nordics, but both suppliers know how to make a good profit and so do the governments (tax income) and so do energy companies (.. we need to take into account risk a, risk b, uncertainty .. )

I still have a contract for the next 3 years against € 0,90 per m3 of gas but if I now have to sign a new one, I believe the latest price is € 3,94 per m3. Now that Uncle Sam blew up both pipelines' prices will skyrocket. Luckily my house is well isolated, and my yearly use is only approx. 750m3 and will manage even without but for sure this will hit European industries and they will have to incorporate higher cost of goods impacting competitiveness on the market.

I would not be surprised if a lot of the major energy reliant industries will be looking outside of Europe; that leads to loss of government income, brain drain, and so on. Everything is connected and so this will set of a chain of events that accumulate.

And some day we call it the "Former Soviet U..... Europe"

And what % is LNG capacity against pipelines?

RT News
Forwarded from RT India

Kremlin Reacts to Referendums, Latest on Military Operation & Nord Stream Allegations:

President Putin will hold talks with Donbass and other regions regarding referendums, will not address the public
No dates set for territories to join Russia, number of steps need to be applied first
President Putin will not meet with Intl Atomic Energy Agency chief on his visit to Russia
Kremlin will not give further details on operational objectives - no information on anti-terrorist ops in new territories
US dangerously close to becoming a side of the conflict
Kremlin disappointed but not surprised by Western allegations regarding Nord Stream. Neither Russia or Europe will benefit - but US interested in growing its exports of gas to Europe

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:When will first mobilized troops reach the frontline?

Saw a video somewhere today at a training center for mobilized troops and they were being told that they were planned to be there until October 30th being organized, equipped and training updated. That would be fast IMO.

franco wrote:
And what % is LNG capacity against pipelines?  

Majority of gas from Norway comes to EU and UK via pipelines: Europipe 1,2, Langelen and soon Baltic pipeline. Obviously, LNG capacities are much lower as LNG is economically not most optimal solution due to its higher price. Only Spain and Portugal have LNG facilities that correspond to their needs.

franco wrote:

famschopman wrote:

thegopnik wrote:I forgot that Gazprom still existed and Gazprom is the only way to get gas but that is through ukraine from russia. I think Europe would have to slow down supplies or weaken ukraines war effort if they want to get heated up in the winter which can be done if ukraine is uhhh you know taken care of. Now I have no idea if the US or Russia did it

And what % is LNG capacity against pipelines?  

Operational capacity as well as reserves cannot be maintained throughout Europe with LNG shipments. At maximum capacity and according to best case scenario's you would be looking at 40% coverage. So, in reality the number will be much less.

I have been following this SMO thread for a long ago... but just decided to write this message for you, Arkanghelsk.
I have never seen in my life such a whining and crying adult man. You're constantly whining, crying, cursing about incompetent high military Russian command, stupid Russian politicians and other.
Constructive and well thought criticism is always welcome. But it is hard to judge in the middle of a war where you have so little information and awareness about what is actually happening.
You are just a little whining bitch. That's disgusting. I wonder if you're an adult at all.

Hole wrote:

Lithuania transported Ukraine 50 armored vehicles M113

That ammount will last 3 to 4 days max.

50 second hand trucks would have been a lot cheaper.

The Pentagon announced the allocation of a new tranche of "military aid" to Ukraine for $1.1 billion
The package includes:
18 MLRS HIMARS
150 SUVs
radars
UAV countermeasure systems

caveat emptor wrote:The Pentagon announced the allocation of a new tranche of "military aid" to Ukraine for $1.1 billion
The package includes:
 18 MLRS HIMARS
150 SUVs
radars
UAV countermeasure systems

That's worth 10-20 million at best, depending on what type of radar they send.

Certainly not 1.1 billion.

Isos wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:The Pentagon announced the allocation of a new tranche of "military aid" to Ukraine for $1.1 billion
The package includes:
 18 MLRS HIMARS
150 SUVs
radars
UAV countermeasure systems

That's worth 10-20 million at best, depending on what type of radar they send.

Certainly not 1.1 billion.

That's what they claim. Also, munitions for HIMARS. I've missed that.

Mir wrote:

Hole wrote:

Lithuania transported Ukraine 50 armored vehicles M113

That ammount will last 3 to 4 days max.

50 second hand trucks would have been a lot cheaper.

Maybe they (Ukros) should ask another american puppet (Daesh/IS) about their car dealer. They received a lot of Toyotas from all over the world.

franco wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:When will first mobilized troops reach the frontline?

Saw a video somewhere today at a training center for mobilized troops and they were being told that they were planned to be there until October 30th being organized, equipped and training updated. That would be fast IMO.  

3 November would be a nice date to start the liberation of Kiev.

I know that there's a lot of stuff going on elsewhere, but apart from all the other repairs and new construction work in Mariupol, the drama theater has now been fully repaired by the Russians and it was re-opened to the public today.

Just a snapshot from inside.

Isos wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:The Pentagon announced the allocation of a new tranche of "military aid" to Ukraine for $1.1 billion
The package includes:
 18 MLRS HIMARS
150 SUVs
radars
UAV countermeasure systems

That's worth 10-20 million at best, depending on what type of radar they send.

Certainly not 1.1 billion.

Not sure what radars and countermeasure systems cost but with the following two you are almost at 170Mio.

92Mio for HIMARS, 18 * 5.1Mio
75Mio for SUVs 150 * 500k (assuming a MaxxPro)

And don't forget 10% for the big guy.

Clipped from my post in the Russian gas thread as I know some don't venture there and it is quite telling. My words

OK, so how about this?

Now look at this, the military must hate OSINT, it is the flight pattern from ads-b.nl of several MH-60H tracking over the spot at which NS2 was damaged but on Sept 13th. Up to 6 were tracked. For those not aware the MH-60H is the version that has the magnetic detector, perfect for precisely locating an oil pipeline and were probably from the USS Kearsarge air wing which was still in the Baltic (it left today) following the BALTOPS22 exercise in June.




Chapter and verse is here

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/whodunnit-facts-related-to-the-sabotage-attack-on-the-nord-stream-pipelines.html#more

EDIT

Interestingly when I tried to put both that exact post first and then a gentler version on https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/ they were both bounced. They didn't want their readers to see it. I am an evil Russian troll there by the way. Same name there, see this thread for a smile or two https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british-jet-tracks-russian-forces-in-occupied-ukraine/

Backman wrote:For the record i don't think Russia is losing or will lose the war
. I just wish that the Russian mod would not make itself look worse than it has to. Propaganda is part of war. Now is not the time to look weak. Even if it's not true

Look weak when you are strong

It matters a lot more that the opponent becomes overconfident and wastes his reserves then what people watching the 'propaganda war' think

As for Ukrainian forces being here there or wherever. That's no different to how they tried to encircle the entire Donbass militia in 2014 by creeping south along the border with Russia.
Anyone remember what happened then?