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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #25

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    ucmvulcan


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    Post  ucmvulcan Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:54 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:So the Kremlins bet, is that the West won't last the duration of the conflict which they will keep going for long time

    Based on Putins words

    Hopefully he's right- if he's wrong, it's a fatal error

    As I said earlier, he [Putin] said the SMO is to be a limited war where the aim is not long term occupation but liberating Donbass, killing the Nazis and demilitarizing Ukraine and NATO.

    However, in this post you broach upon my biggest fear. That he is planning for a local military conflict along side a global economic, diplomatic, energy, and culture war and NATO is planning for a total military conflict around the globe

    I see his logic, bankrupt NATO and the US by making them spend lots of money on sending weapons to Ukraine while they are starved of gas, fertilizer, and various industrial components while all Russia does is drain its tank parks and bone yards of equipment meant for a global war that the world miraculously avoided in the 60s, 70s, and 80s and use its large wealth of natural resources to outlast the west.

    However, the problem is he may be losing Kazakhstan and other parts of Central Asia if they don't see some decisive victories very soon

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    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:56 pm

    ucmvulcan wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:So the Kremlins bet, is that the West won't last the duration of the conflict which they will keep going for long time

    Based on Putins words

    Hopefully he's right- if he's wrong, it's a fatal error

    As I said earlier, he [Putin] said the SMO is to be a limited war where the aim is not long term occupation but liberating Donbass, killing the Nazis and demilitarizing Ukraine and NATO.  

    However, in this post you broach upon my biggest fear.  That he is planning for a local military conflict along side a global economic, diplomatic, energy, and culture war and NATO is planning for a total military conflict around the globe

    I see his logic, bankrupt NATO and the US by making them spend lots of money on sending weapons to Ukraine while they are starved of gas, fertilizer, and various industrial components while all Russia does is drain its tank parks and bone yards of equipment meant for a global war that the world miraculously avoided in the 60s, 70s, and 80s and use its large wealth of natural resources to outlast the west.

    However, the problem is he may be losing Kazakhstan and other parts of Central Asia if they don't see some decisive victories very soon

    That isn't how it works and never did, or Russia would have "lost" them long ago.

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    Post  Hole Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:24 pm

    Russia killed more Nazi fighters since the beginning of these glorious "counter-offensives" (in fact local counter-attacks) then in the whole of July. Or June. The glory of the "victory" in Kharkov is long gone at the fronts, the Nazis are complaining again that they are slaughtered by the Russians (which are mostly locals supported by real russian artillery and airpower).

    Mercouris made a great comparison. He spoke of the attack in the Kharkov region as a punch that hit only air. We are in the 8 round of a fight and the trainer (NATO) told his fighter (Nazi regime in 404) that he is way behind on the scoreboards so he has to show the officials that he can still win. So the fighter came out and put all into this one punch. But his opponent (Russian Armed Forces) went ouf of the way. The punch hit nothing. If this happens to a boxer he mostly looses his balance and drops his cover. Even if the opponent doesn´t use this advantage for some decisive blow the off balance fighter will likely more prudent or careless in his next attack to make due for his mistake.

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    Post  Broski Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:27 pm

    ucmvulcan wrote:However, the problem is he may be losing Kazakhstan and other parts of Central Asia if they don't see some decisive victories very soon
    Kazakhstan isn't being antagonistic to Russia because of the Ukraine war but simply because their oligarchs are greedy and stupid, they haven't learned anything from the attempted color revolution not too long ago. Worst comes to the worst, I believe the Kazakh military will execute a coup détat against its useless government and set things straight with its oligarchs and the Russian Federation.

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    Post  Backman Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:31 pm

    ucmvulcan wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:So
    Hopefully he's right- if he's wrong, it's a fatal error

    As I said earlier, he [Putin] said the SMO is to be a limited war where the aim is not long term occupation but liberating Donbass, killing the Nazis and demilitarizing Ukraine and NATO.  

    However, in this post you broach upon my biggest fear.  That he is planning for a local military conflict along side a global economic, diplomatic, energy, and culture war and NATO is planning for a total military conflict around the globe

    I see his logic, bankrupt NATO and the US by making them spend lots of money on sending weapons to Ukraine while they are starved of gas, fertilizer, and various industrial components while all Russia does is drain its tank parks and bone yards of equipment meant for a global war that the world miraculously avoided in the 60s, 70s, and 80s and use its large wealth of natural resources to outlast the west.

    However, the problem is he may be losing Kazakhstan and other parts of Central Asia if they don't see some decisive victories very soon

    I think this idea of starving out and waiting out the west is way more provocative than Putin thinks. More provocative than just blasting a 300 kilometre buffer zone from the borders of Kherson and Donbas with 250,000 troops.

    Get the world used to the new reality on the ground instead of this slow grinding war that they think they have a chance in.
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    Post  Backman Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:59 pm

    Broski wrote:
    ucmvulcan wrote:However, the problem is he may be losing Kazakhstan and other parts of Central Asia if they don't see some decisive victories very soon
    Kazakhstan isn't being antagonistic to Russia because of the Ukraine war but simply because their oligarchs are greedy and stupid, they haven't learned anything from the attempted color revolution not too long ago. Worst comes to the worst, I believe the Kazakh military will execute a coup détat against its useless government and set things straight with its oligarchs and the Russian Federation.

    Russia better be infiltrating and planning the military coup now. So that it can be done in the 2030's. Nursultan Nazarbayev is the one who started the Eurasian Union. And now we have this same country bugging out of the CSTO ? It is a first step. Next they will bug out of the Eurasian Union.

    Judging by the speed of things, these guys in Kazakistan are not just dumb greedy oligarchs. They are agents of the US who are tasked with destroying the Eurasian Union.

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:59 pm

    Backman wrote:

    I think this idea of starving out and waiting out the west is way more provocative than Putin thinks. More provocative than just blasting a 300 kilometre buffer zone from the borders of Kherson and Donbas with 250,000 troops.

    Get the world used to the new reality on the ground instead of this slow grinding war that they think they have a chance in.

    If he wants to grind , do it in West Ukraine,

    But the east should be liberated and freed of NATZI oppression

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    Post  dionis Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:07 am

    So who was it that said Russia is using 10-15% of its military in Ukraine?
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    Post  Podlodka77 Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:23 am

    dionis wrote:So who was it that said Russia is using 10-15% of its military in Ukraine?


    Bro, who shook your cage and woke you up from your winter sleep ? You only have 100+ posts in 10 years, so that's why I'm asking.

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    Post  Isos Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:23 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Our economy nor would the EU be sacrificed over sending mere equipment, I you guys think the west will crash over the current situation buts that hilariously misguided and just mind blowing feeble minded logic.

    A case of when fan boys hope their wet dreams will become reality but it won't

    Euh I wouldn't be so sure. Everything the west produces is now also produced elsewhere. And their political leadership that consist in exporting bombs and LGBT isn't attractive now that they bombed half of the word's countries.

    In EU only Germany has strategical companies. Rest of EU countries are meaningless. Like chinese say, "Europe is a big open roof museum".

    USA is crashing. Dollar won't be used as a reserve currency anymore. Thry made tge mistake to weaponise it. More and more big corporations loose their strenght because of asian competitors. They also stop being innovative, just look at those dumb metavers shit or Apple lag behind asian smartphones. USA reached its peak of power around 2012 and is now declining. And let's not talk aboug the almost civil war ongoing there with huge civilian issues that will very likely end up in a real racist civil war.

    It will still be strong economies but the world shifted towards Asia. That's why Putin wasn't afraid of this war. He can sell its gas and oil to the asian through pipelines which is a cheaper alternative to tanker exported arab oil and gas.

    Europe won't see russian gas anytime soon and they have no alternative. Add to this they will export less and less... yeha they are in deep shit. US are autonomous in terms if energy and will keep their strong compabies still strong. They will be fine but internal issues will kill them.

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    Post  franco Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:33 am

    Backman wrote:
    ucmvulcan wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:So
    Hopefully he's right- if he's wrong, it's a fatal error

    As I said earlier, he [Putin] said the SMO is to be a limited war where the aim is not long term occupation but liberating Donbass, killing the Nazis and demilitarizing Ukraine and NATO.  

    However, in this post you broach upon my biggest fear.  That he is planning for a local military conflict along side a global economic, diplomatic, energy, and culture war and NATO is planning for a total military conflict around the globe

    I see his logic, bankrupt NATO and the US by making them spend lots of money on sending weapons to Ukraine while they are starved of gas, fertilizer, and various industrial components while all Russia does is drain its tank parks and bone yards of equipment meant for a global war that the world miraculously avoided in the 60s, 70s, and 80s and use its large wealth of natural resources to outlast the west.

    However, the problem is he may be losing Kazakhstan and other parts of Central Asia if they don't see some decisive victories very soon

    I think this idea of starving out and waiting out the west is way more provocative than Putin thinks. More provocative than just blasting a 300 kilometre buffer zone from the borders of Kherson and Donbas with 250,000 troops.

    Get the world used to the new reality on the ground instead of this slow grinding war that they think they have a chance in.

    I suspect the Russian strategy is to bleed the EU, NATO and the USA as much as it does Ukraine. The first 3 have to be bleed slowly so it dictates that so does Ukraine.

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    dionis


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    Post  dionis Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:37 am

    Podlodka77 wrote:
    dionis wrote:So who was it that said Russia is using 10-15% of its military in Ukraine?


    Bro, who shook your cage and woke you up from your winter sleep ? You only have 100+ posts in 10 years, so that's why I'm asking.

    https://www.russiadefence.net/t8787-re-introduction
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    Post  mnztr Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:43 am

    Did Xi and Modi put pressure on Putin at the SCO meetings? Modi in particular seems to express impatience
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    Post  Erk Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:54 am

    dionis wrote:So who was it that said Russia is using 10-15% of its military in Ukraine?

    The Russian SMO declaration, has legal limitations on the number of Russian military that can be deployed.
    That's why there are other militias assisting the Russian military.

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    Podlodka77
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    Post  Podlodka77 Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:57 am

    mnztr wrote:Did Xi and Modi put pressure on Putin at the SCO meetings? Modi in particular seems to express impatience

    What pressure? Pressure is what the whole world feels when it comes to Western "civilization". That's why this whole conflict is going on.

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    Post  mnztr Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:18 am

    Podlodka77 wrote:
    mnztr wrote:Did Xi and Modi put pressure on Putin at the SCO meetings? Modi in particular seems to express impatience

    What pressure? Pressure is what the whole world feels when it comes to Western "civilization". That's why this whole conflict is going on.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/16/putin-tells-modi-he-wants-ukraine-war-to-end-as-soon-as-possible
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    Post  Podlodka77 Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:24 am

    mnztr wrote:
    Podlodka77 wrote:
    mnztr wrote:Did Xi and Modi put pressure on Putin at the SCO meetings? Modi in particular seems to express impatience

    What pressure? Pressure is what the whole world feels when it comes to Western "civilization". That's why this whole conflict is going on.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/16/putin-tells-modi-he-wants-ukraine-war-to-end-as-soon-as-possible


    Okay, but where is the "pressure" on Putin that you write about?
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    Post  Backman Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:26 am

    dionis wrote:So who was it that said Russia is using 10-15% of its military in Ukraine?

    The bulk of the fighting force is the Donbas militia, Wagner PMC and Kadyrovs armies. You can see it from the footage. A total lack of Russian troops. During Mariupol, there was maybe 10% of the Russian military fighting. Since then, it is undoubtably lower.

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    Post  thegopnik Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:28 am

    ukrainians need water for some reason https://twitter.com/ILRUSSO1/status/1570879548413317120

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    Post  par far Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:39 am

    mnztr wrote:
    Podlodka77 wrote:
    mnztr wrote:Did Xi and Modi put pressure on Putin at the SCO meetings? Modi in particular seems to express impatience

    What pressure? Pressure is what the whole world feels when it comes to Western "civilization". That's why this whole conflict is going on.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/16/putin-tells-modi-he-wants-ukraine-war-to-end-as-soon-as-possible


    Aljazeera is no better than BBC, CNN or any other western main stream media.

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    Post  par far Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:39 am



    Podlodka77
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    Post  Podlodka77 Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:43 am

    par far wrote:




    Erk has already posted that link, and I agree with you about Al Jazeera.

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    Post  Erk Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:48 am

    Backman wrote:
    dionis wrote:So who was it that said Russia is using 10-15% of its military in Ukraine?

    The bulk of the fighting force is the Donbas militia, Wagner PMC and Kadyrovs armies. You can see it from the footage. A total lack of Russian troops. During Mariupol, there was maybe 10% of the Russian military fighting. Since then, it is undoubtably lower.

    How many Donbas militia in Ukraine are there?
    How many Wagner PMC and Kadyrovs armies in Ukraine are there?
    How many Russian armed forces in Ukraine are there?

    How do you know these numbers?
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    Post  Backman Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:00 am

    This gives me a slight glimmer of hope.



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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:06 am

    Modis words were more of a signal to west that he mentioned it , so leave him alone

    Putin gave him the explanation, so "all normal" and modi can tell west he tried,

    And in the end, the status quo remains, India will keep buying from Russia

    Putins comments were much needed from the population - the Russian population is uneasy with the amount of stress generated from unknowns about the outcome of this war

    But he made it clear he plans to deliver damage to western economies , case in point the EU , and US FedEx announcements - recession

    If he can pulloff crashing the EU, and ousting Biden or at least creating a tense US situation with migrants and inter political warfare,

    Then he will achieve his objective

    If the EU and US are able to stay in the fight for another year, he will have to escalate and reconfigure his strategy

    I am not totally convinced, but he at least spoke and in essence showed to Russia what he is thinking and planning, Russians have no choice but to bunker down , but he must balance this demands of the population with his own geopolitical calculation

    The Russian populace is tense, and undoubtedly all want Ukraine to be dealt with forcefully and certainly- myself included, and Russians know and understand that Ukraine is weak, and can be easily defeated

    So he must be careful not to come off as a traitor, even I can understand his overtures to Modi and Xi, as offering them an off road in their own confrontations with the west

    But he must maintain the integrity of the operation in Ukraine, I can understand the need to damage the west, but we must not lose face doing it, the people need victories

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