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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #22

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Mon Sep 05, 2022 1:22 pm

    A quite an interesting entry from Jurij Podoliaka concerning the numbers and mobilization potential of the Ukrs.

    Long story short, he combined the historical data for USSR and 1941 with the actual situation.
    A mass mobilization of the SU brought about 12 mln fresh troops equal to 6% of the population.
    Considering the fact, that the society structure of the SU was totally different to the Ukro one, here are the conclusions.
    First, SU enjoyed a big families with several kids, making the mobilization potential, a number of military-age conscripts each year much higher than it is now.
    Second, the general health condition of the SU citizen was much better that the Ukro, so much more of them could have been mobilized.
    Third, the bulk of Ukro working age males are gone due to years of economic misery, most of them live abroad.
    Fourth, the overall number of the citizens living on the Kiev controlled territory is not more than 32 mln (I would say it is lower than that, but ...)

    All combined, he put a percentage of fit for mobilization at a much lower number than USSR, let it be 2-3% max.
    conclusion is, that they are on the edge of physically possible mobilization, and the calls about 1mln army is a wet dream of propagandists only.

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    Post  lyle6 Mon Sep 05, 2022 2:10 pm

    The Soviet mobilizations worked because it wasn't just meat - they were true armies with hordes of tanks, artillery, aircraft, trucks, the works.
    A million men without heavy equipment is just an armed mob. Out in the steppes, target practice really.

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    Post  GarryB Mon Sep 05, 2022 2:22 pm

    The reason is to antagonize Russians toward the Poles. Not that it has no justification due the Polish actions, but in a long perspective it does not serve well to both nations.

    I think for the moment that ship has sailed... Russia should not waste time trying to be friends with Poland... if the Polish people are happy with their government and the choices it is making then they are part of the problem, not any part of any solution... Russia should not waste any time to appeal to such an audience... it would be wasted effort.

    Sadly, I feel like we are being outplayed here, I mean all of the Slavic nations...

    Your leadership has done what it has done and said what it has said... for Russia to pretend they are still brother countries would be for Russia to have its head in the sand.

    Making friends with Poland right now makes no sense... they want to supply the enemy with weapons and money then being friends and having good relations is not something that is going to happen any time soon.

    How friendly would Poland be to Russia if it turned out Russia funded and Armed the Taliban to fight all of HATO in Afghanistan... they didn't, but the west would go apeshit about that.

    Russia always shoots itself in the foot by allowing Ukrs these phantom victories. Whether Snake island, or the Mi-24 raid on Belgorod, sinking of the Moskva and so on.

    The difference is that Russia shoots itself in the foot with a rubber band gun that does not even leave a red mark on the skin.

    In comparison Kiev uses a double barrel shotgun in 12 gauge and fires both barrels...

    Over reacting is not helping anyone.

    Even if this village is completely insignificant, it will be used to boost morale and cancel out the deaths of thousands of soldiers Zelensky sent to commit suicide by Russia. Cancel out the bungled attempt on the Zaporozhie NPP.

    GOOD. Do you think Kiev lets its conscripts know what is really happening... even if they didn't capture anything they will tell them they did and that the Russians torture and rape and then murder all prisoners... the longer this takes the better it will be for Russia and the worse it will be for their enemy neighbour.

    It does not serve Russia's best interests among other things, to end up in control of this barren shell-shocked land, where every male between 18-50 years old is either dead, crippled or has emigrated, and the rest are consumed by grief or anger.

    It does serve Russias interests because no matter what happens Russia is to blame... the more you leave alive the more problems you will have in the future.

    The west will also see that as weakness and think they can use that to their advantage... maybe an incident on the Finnish border perhaps to start something there... how hard would it be to get another conflict going when everything is Russias fault.

    You know exactly to end this it requires Russia to act directly at decision making centers.

    Not till the job is done... the people of the Ukraine need to be the ones to end this and they end this by turning on the nazis and Americans and Europeans that have infiltrated their government and police and armed forces and killing them or forcing them out.

    Otherwise it is rinse and repeat.

    Maybe the time grew up, to make a nice bomb run down the Dnepr, hit the masters of the puppets, to show that puppets can be free at last.

    The oligarchs who allowed the US to seed the Ukraine with nazis and Americans to run the place into the ground and steal their resources and turn it into a weapon against Russia (and humanity).

    Another possibility. This state of affairs suits the Putin government and we do not know.

    Minimal Russian casualties, maximum enemy casualties... what is not to like?

    I don't think a full Russian invasion is needed... they are about to crumble.

    NATO and their puppets in Kiev are playing to win and embarrass Russia.

    HATO and their puppets are getting their asses handed to them... even the much vaunted specially trained troops from the UK that Sweden was also training too... that worked out well didn't it...

    Russia's response so far has been half-asleep and not serious enough in my opinion.

    When you say embarrass Russia I suspect you don't realise that western media will post and publish any bullshit story that makes Russia look bad or silly and will never let the facts get in the way of a good story.

    I such a situation why would Russia care how it is perceived by the people in the west?

    When they start to get cold this coming winter however I am sure they will feel smug as their media tells them how Kiev is retreating and causing enormous losses to the Russian army in expectations of a massive counter attack in Spring next year...

    The Ukrainian army needs to be completely destroyed and humiliated.

    They are being humiliated and destroyed... not sure why you ask for more... the job is getting done and it takes as long as it takes.

    Only this way will you get their capitulation and secure Russian security interests in this region. Putin & Co. need to wake the F up soon!

    They don't want them to give up yet... to many nazis remain, too much land to be captured and converted into neutral land... the last thing they want is for Ukraine to surrender now... that would be a total pain in the arse.

    That would be like getting the Minsk Agreements part II... the US and EU and UK and Kiev are agreement incapable.

    Ho ho Laughing Laughing that just mechanical junk was more reliable than all those computerised vehicles now where the computer says no because of a minor malfunction.You could repair it with a hammer (percusive maintenance), some oil and dieselfuel Wink. The only drawback are the heaters, those broke down a lot. And yes, the armour sucks......

    Progress... Smile

    What is this nonsense. Would Putin would be so stupid as to believe that the UA would not join NATO and give up all the territory it took? Whether or not Ukraine would be in NATO, US troops would enter Ukraine a few days after such an agreement. Russia could not be so stupid to enter into such agreements is absurd.That would make them even stupider than the USSR authorities who believed NATO would not expand eastward.

    It would not have been signed by Russia without some serious threats and guarantees to back it up...

    Wtf is this bullshit, Russia needs to go all the way to moldova, take Odessa back, leave ukr landlocked.

    That was an agreement they turned down in April. Any future agreement will have much harsher terms for Kiev and as time goes on the terms will get worse and worse.

    A nice carpet bombing of the government buildings in Kiev and Lviv, in particular the US embassy in Lviv, should do the trick.

    Might not achieve much but would show intent and would be fun.

    It reminds me of Trotsky's account of Russia after suffering disaster at the front during WW1, from his book on the Russian Revolution

    The more things change the more they stay the same...

    Peskov announced Moscow's readiness for negotiations with Kyiv

    That is a Ukrainian website... and at the bottom of the page it had a photo of a sex toy in the shape of a baby!!!!!

    That tells you all you need to know about these people...

    Personally I think Russia needs to steam on while it has such a golden opportunity.

    Totally agree... this is a huge opportunity for Russia to disengage from the west and start to create new relations with the rest of the world.

    Clean healthy relations that benefit both sides and allow both sides to grow and develop.

    I want to hear from Ukroshitstan only one thing in the end - UNCONDITIONAL CAPITULATION, as I am sure that is Putin's goal. And for the territories and cities, which is secondary, because the capitulation of Ukroshitstan will put things in their place.

    Look at the web address of the source... that was Ukrainian Pravda...

    Russian artillery in action.

    Devastating...  

    A russian soldier or telegram complains that even though the Russian military had knowledge of the ukrainian attack, and they were outnumbered, they recieved absolutely no artillery or air support for more than 2 hours, and in general russian airforce activity in kherson in almost nonexistent in the last few days

    How would this Russian soldier be able to communicate on Telegram... I suspect he would be in serious trouble for doing such a thing... quite a risk really.

    Does he think his Telegram fans can force the Russian Army to do better?

    What is his goal?

    To make Russia supporters realise things are not great for Russian soldiers either?

    Part 24 continued here:

    https://www.russiadefence.net/t8828-russian-special-military-operation-in-ukraine-24#394405

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    Post  owais.usmani Mon Sep 05, 2022 3:34 pm

    NSFW Post Alert:

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    Post  Hole Mon Sep 05, 2022 5:53 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #22 - Page 40 Fb5npi10
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #22 - Page 40 Fb5nvu10

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    Post  TMA1 Mon Sep 05, 2022 6:11 pm

    What's this I am hearing of a massive Ukrainian offensive again starting up? More waves in Kherson?
    caveat emptor
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    Post  caveat emptor Mon Sep 05, 2022 6:30 pm

    @limb
    Channel grey zone is not run by "Russian soldier", but by some guy from Donbass (Donetsk or Stakhanov, can't remember exactly). Originally, he tried to present himself as part of Wagner, but they made him change name and pic on the tg group. He might know some people that are fighting in Kherson, but he is not a fighter. Ukrainians claimed they've killed him a month or so ago in Popasnaya HIMARS attack. I guess, everyone wants 5 minutes of fame.

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Sep 05, 2022 7:25 pm

    Report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine - as of September 5, 2022

    🔻 The Armed Forces of Ukraine continued to try to gain a foothold in certain sections of the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog direction.

    ▪Russian Aerospace Forces, rocket troops and artillery deliver precision strikes on units and reserves of Ukrainian troops. In total, over the past day, during the hostilities in this operational direction, the enemy lost 11 tanks, 7 infantry fighting vehicles and 8 other armored vehicles, 9 pickup trucks with heavy machine guns and more than 220 military personnel.

    ▪In addition, high-precision weapons in the areas of the settlements of BEREZNEGOVATOE and MURAKHOVKA of the Nikolaev region hit the points of temporary deployment of the 57th motorized infantry brigade.

    ▪In the area of ​​​​the village of KOCHUBEEVKA, Kherson region, the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down a Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Force.

    ▪In the districts of Voznesensk and OCHAKOVA, Mykolaiv region, two depots of missile and artillery weapons and ammunition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed, where over one and a half thousand rockets for multiple rocket launchers were stored, including more than two hundred missiles for US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launchers.

    🔻The strikes by operational-tactical and army aviation, missile forces and artillery on military facilities on the territory of Ukraine continue.

    ▪The high-precision strike of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the point of temporary deployment of the unit of the nationalist formation "Kraken" near the city of KHARKOV destroyed more than 30 nationalists and 10 vehicles.

    ▪In the area of ​​the settlement KRASNOPOLIE of the Donetsk People's Republic, concentrated fire strikes on the combat positions of the 81st air assault brigade destroyed up to 20 and wounded more than 50 military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

    ▪During the day, six command posts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were hit in the areas of Dachnoye, Velyka Danilovka, Kharkiv region, SLAVIANSK, ARTYOMOVSK, Donetsk People’s Republic, Poltavka, Zaporozhye region, Zelenodolsk, Dnipropetrovsk region, as well as 48 artillery units, manpower and Ukrainian military equipment in 152 areas.

    ▪Five depots of rocket and artillery weapons and ammunition were destroyed in the areas of ANDREEVKA, SADY, Kharkiv region, DOBROVOLIE, ZELENOE POLE of the Donetsk People's Republic and Nikolaevka, Kherson region. A US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket launcher was destroyed in the vicinity of the TYMCHENKI settlement in the Kharkiv region.

    ▪Russian air defense systems shot down five unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of settlements BIG PASSES of the Kharkov region, NOVOTROITSKOE, EGOROVKA, NOVY SVET and ZELENOE POLES of the Donetsk People's Republic, including one Bayraktar-TB2.

    ▪Four US-made HARM anti-radar missiles were shot down in the areas of CHERNOBAEVKA and NOVAYA KAKHOVKA, Kherson region. In addition, 34 shells of HIMARS, Uragan and Vilkha multiple launch rocket systems were intercepted in the air in the areas of the settlements of KAZATSKOYE and CHERNOBAEVKA of the Kherson region.

    ▪In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 287 aircraft, 152 helicopters, 1877 unmanned aerial vehicles, 372 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4822 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 825 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 3368 field artillery guns and mortars, and also 5304 units of special military vehicles.

    🔻Despite the presence of representatives of the IAEA at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, the Kyiv regime continues provocations in order to create a threat of a man-made disaster.

    On September 4, Ukrainian troops used an attack unmanned aerial vehicle on the territory of the nuclear power plant. As a result of the actions of Russian electronic warfare equipment, the Ukrainian drone lost control and fell a kilometer from the territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.

    ▪During the night, two artillery shelling of the city of ENERGODAR was recorded. In total, six artillery shells were fired from the areas of the settlements of MARGANETS and NIKOPOL in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were suppressed by the return fire of Russian artillery.

    ▪The radiation situation at the Zaporozhye NPP is normal.

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Sep 05, 2022 7:27 pm

    TMA1 wrote:What's this I am hearing of a massive Ukrainian offensive again starting up? More waves in Kherson?

    From IntelSlava

    According to Ukrop Legitimny channel this was the setup for Kherson offensive, wave 1-2 got completely destroyed.

    - the first wave: strike groups of special forces.
    Approximate 5.000 people

    - the second wave: immediately after the first, regular units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which went through the spring campaign and have good combat experience.
    Approximate participation 10.000 people

    - the third and fourth wave: it is underway now, and consists of additional special forces and Armed Forces of Ukraine with combat experience of at least four months.
    Approximate number of participants: 10.000

    - the fifth wave, now being brought from the rear: it consists of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the territorial defense. Approximate number: 20.000

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Sep 05, 2022 7:28 pm

    @Rybar has just published the first updated map on the situation on the Kherson front and in the Andreevka salient in 27 hours. (On previous days they published up to three maps a day.) The salient is getting smaller. Ukrainians are still throwing in fresh forces.

    The situation in the Mykolayiv-Kryvyi Rih direction as of 15.00 September 5, 2022

    By the seventh day since the beginning of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Kherson, the front line had stabilized. The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not abandon attempts to transfer reserves and expand the bridgehead for further advancement to Novaya Kakhovka and Kherson, but they still cannot develop success.

    🔻 Since night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to build up a strike force and transfer equipment to the Posad-Pokrovsky section : reinforcements arrived in the Red Banner (Lyubomirovka), Novogrigorovka and Posad-Pokrovskoye. Units of the 28th and 59th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reinforced the Yavorivskaya 24th brigade.

    Russian units of the 7th Airborne Division and 20th Motorized Rifle Division are firing artillery at the reinforcements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, preventing them from going on the offensive and suppressing artillery firing positions.

    Units of 33 SMEs conducted a successful raid on enemy positions from Ternovy Pod and captured the commander of a company of the 59th ombr of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a detachment of nationalists from the Right Sector.

    🔻 On the Snigirevsky sector of the front, everything is relatively calm: the RF Armed Forces periodically suppress the firing positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and thwart sorties. The observation post of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kiselevka was destroyed from the ATGM.

    🔻 On the Andreevsky site front, the battles were localized in the narrow "gut" Andreevka - Sukhoi Stavok. Kostroma was taken under the control of the RF Armed Forces, one of the established crossings over the Ingulets was destroyed, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to transfer individual pieces of equipment along a narrow corridor.

    Aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces operates without interruption, burning enemy equipment and reinforcements. The Andreevsky section has turned into one large cemetery, where the command continues to send people to be slaughtered.

    🔻 On the Olginsky sector of the front, at night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine used Bayraktar TB2 UAVs at the positions of Russian troops in Olgino and Vysokopole. The front line has stabilized, the Ukrainian formations are trying to take the fortified areas of the Russian troops.

    https://t.me/rybar/38229

    Large resolution map in English:
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #22 - Page 40 05-09-EN-1

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    Post  Arrow Mon Sep 05, 2022 7:30 pm

    - the first wave: strike groups of special forces. Approximate 5.000 people - the second wave: immediately after the first, regular units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which went through the spring campaign and have good combat experience. Approximate participation 10.000 people - the third and fourth wave: it is underway now, and consists of additional special forces and Armed Forces of Ukraine with combat experience of at least four months. Approximate number of participants: 10.000 - the fifth wave, now being brought from the rear: it consists of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the territorial defense. Approximate number: 20.000 wrote:

    So there are about 45k soldiers. Ukraine has put up a lot of power for this offensive.

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Sep 05, 2022 7:36 pm

    From the Military Chronicle Telegram Channel....
    The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation use the tactics of saturating the fire bag in the Kherson direction. Details

    _ settlement Andreevka and Lozovoye. Units of the Ukrainian army several times (at least three times) over the past days went to the area of ​​the village of Sukhoi Stavok and each time were dispersed by the fire of cannon and rocket artillery. For these purposes, the RF Armed Forces used NONA-S self-propelled howitzers, as well as Tornado and Uragan rocket systems.

    From the Sukhoi Headquarters, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to move towards n. n. Bruskinskoye and Bezymennoye with a further goal of throwing to the city of Berislav. They failed each time.

    Nevertheless, allied units are not blocking the Ukrainian army's initial foothold near the Ingulets River. According to our data, the tactics of “saturating the fire bag” are being implemented, when the allied forces specially allow the remaining combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the areas of the settlement of the settlement into the potential pocket. Bereznegovatoe, Sokolovka and Krasny Yar.

    When the fire bag is full, it will be closed. However, another scenario is also possible, when the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be destroyed in parts - as they enter the bag and even without closing it.

    The situation of the fire bag could also be observed in the area of ​​the village of Vysokopole (50 km northeast of Sukhoi Stavka). The units of the RF Armed Forces first left this settlement, then struck with NONA-S self-propelled guns and Kornet complexes, and then again leveled the front line.

    As a result, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffer huge losses in the Kherson direction. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, in the last 24 hours alone, when trying to gain a foothold in certain sections of the direction, Kyiv lost 220 people, 11 tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles and eight other armored vehicles.

    According to our estimates, up to 3,000 people were killed and at least 7,000 wounded during the counteroffensive. assault brigade and the 24th separate territorial defense brigade.

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    Post  Sujoy Mon Sep 05, 2022 7:41 pm

    "Still, three Western government sources tell me that Ukraine's deep battlespace effort [inside Russia and Crimea] owes especial thanks to Britain — specifically to British strike and reconnaissance special forces personnel inside Ukraine."

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    Post  Hole Mon Sep 05, 2022 8:32 pm

    Arrow wrote:

    So there are about 45k soldiers. Ukraine has put up a lot of power for this offensive.
    The last wave consisted mainly of Volkssturm units. This is like a minor league team going against f...ing Real Madrid.  Laughing

    The "strategic reserves" of 404 are depleting rapidly. Send in more human waves!  thumbsup

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    Post  Hole Mon Sep 05, 2022 8:33 pm

    Ukraine's deep battlespace effort 
    Look at JohninMK´s post above to see Russia´s deep battlespace efforts which resulted in the destruction of a large number of enemy fighters and equipment.

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    Post  ALAMO Mon Sep 05, 2022 8:39 pm

    This is a pure gold.
    A statistic study of 5 mln twitts covering the war examined at the University of Adelaide.

    Conclusions of a study, in short : 60-80% of all the comments are non-human origin and created by the boots.
    Out of them, 90% (!!) represent a pro-Ukrainian opinions.

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.07038.pdf

    -------

    https://www.russiadefence.net/viewtopic.php?t=8830

    -------

    https://www.russiadefence.net/viewtopic.php?t=8833

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