Ispan wrote:Seven years and a hundred days of war
Nothing much happened in the past 48 hours but some very good analysis and reports inside
Seven years and a hundred days of war
4 June, 2022 Zhukov
Yesterday was the hundredth anniversary of the beginning of Russia's entry into the Ukrainian civil war that began in 2014.
YESTERDAY 03 June
General situation Mikhail Onufrienko, military analyst
The day before, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the national battalions, which were entrenched on the territory of the Azot plant in Severodonetsk, attempted a counterattack to push back our forces from the industrial zone.
The attack was accompanied by the support of the Ukrainian artillery stationed in the territory of Lysychansk, which is located on a hill relative to Severodonetsk.
In response, our troops opened mass fire with cannons, rocket launchers and mortars, nullifying all enemy efforts.
The entire residential area of Severodonetsk is still under the control of the allied forces of Russia and Lugansk, which continue to seize militants scattered in the city limits.
There were no major changes on the fronts today. According to Neil Hauer, a Canadian journalist based in the Donbas, "The road from Bakhmut to Lisichansk is now a death trap. The road from Seversk is also dangerous. And in general, there is a sense of calm before the storm."In fact, Kiev is now offering to withdraw its troops through Seversk to Slavyansk or Bakhmut, because this will allow saving about 3 thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and about 100 armored vehicles. Of course, no one will give them permission to do this. Thus, small cauldrons will be formed and destroyed.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive near Avdeyevka also failed, because it was hopeless from the very beginning due to the large concentration of our artillery. Therefore, apparently, in order to create at least some information background, there is now a group of armored vehicles in the village of Udy in the Kharkiv region, on the westernmost flank.
All attempts of the enemy counteroffensive in the Nikolayev region have stopped, there is a pause.
Statement militia of the Donetsk Republic 19:30 hours
During the current day, joint actions of the military personnel of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed ONE T-80 tank, TWO BMP-2s, ONE BTR-4 and up to FORTY people. Heavy fire suppressed THREE enemy fire points in the area of the village of Avdiivka.
We regretfully regret to inform you that over the past 24 hours in the struggle for independence, FOUR defenders of the Donetsk People's Republic were killed in the line of military duty, and TWENTY-THREE were injured.
The war in Ukraine. Summary 03.06.2022
Fight in the area of the industrial zone "Azot". The enemy decided to hold her as long as he could and sent reinforcements there, including foreign (Polish) mercenaries. The fighting continues in the city.
The enemy maintains the defense both on the Severodonetsk side and on the side of Ustinovka and Privolye. The main supply line of the group is the Artemivsk — Seversk—Lisichansk highway.
Fighting continues along the Artemivsk-Lisichansk highway, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to try to push back our troops from Belogorovka and Berestove, but since the highway is under fire, it is problematic to use it in the conditions of the ongoing fighting.
The struggle continues for the Novoluganskoe and Uglegorsk thermal power plants. The enemy is firmly entrenched there. The Svitlodarsk-Debaltseve highway has already been unlocked.
After the capture of Kamyshevakha, the battles for Zolotoe and in the Toshkovka area continued. The decisive fights in this area will be on Vrubovka.
There is fighting for Svyatogorsk and Bogorodichnoye. The enemy is strengthening its defenses in the Raigorodok area.
Position fights in the Kurulka area, Bolshoy Kamyshevakhi.
In addition to the attack on Bogorodichnoye, an offensive is being carried out in the valley on the Izyum—Slavyansk highway.
Position battles north of the city. The enemy is trying to reach the MCC again after suffering losses there. The fighting continues south of Ternovoye and north of Stary Saltov. The enemy, in turn, tried to attack near the village of Liptsy.
At 23:00 intense cannonade was reported
Luchanal north of the village. Pologi, as well as east of Gulyai-Pole. West of Gulyai-pole, unchanged.
Fighting north of Avdiivka. Enemy counterattacks on Novoselka-2 were unsuccessful. Our troops have not yet made any serious progress in New York. The fighting continued in the direction of Krasnogorovka.
Ugledar, Marinka, Nikolaev, Odessa — unchanged.
Summary of Readovka 03 Junio
Today 04 June
The Russians have taken two more villages in the Sviatogorsk area, clearing the last positions north of the Seversky Donets River.
Specifically: Sosnovoye, north of Svyatogorsk, for which the fighting is continuing.
And Brusovka south of Krasny Liman has been cleared.
In the east, the Russian bridgehead has expanded to Privolye, threatening Severdonetsk from the north.
Heavy terrorist shelling of the city of Donetsk today for hours with large-caliber and long-range Uragan and Tornado rockets, at 21:00 shelling was continuing and plumes of smoke from fires were rising.
Northern Front - Kharkov
With regard to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Khotoml and the Ukrainian bridgehead east of Stary Saltov in the Kharkiv region
There are many reports about the absence of Ukrainian troops on the eastern bank of the Seversky Donets, near Stary Saltov.
For the first time, we reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were confidently operating on the eastern shore on May 16.
According to radio interception data and information from local sources, some armored and sabotage groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reached the edge of the city two weeks ago.Volchansk.
Most likely, these groups have been operating there for a long time: the control east of Chuguev is not monolithic, and transferring patrols across the Pecheneg reservoir (which the enemy did during March-April) - a feasible task.
On May 29, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to fully equip their positions near Khotomlei.
On May 30, pontoon engineer units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were already seen.
On June 1, there was reliable information about the start of work on the construction of the ferry.
On June 2, the AFU control zone expanded near the Pecheneg reservoir - the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a full-fledged springboard for attacking the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the direction of Chervonoi Khvyli. This finally confirmed the real control of the enemy over the Primorskoe -Martovoe-Pershotravnevoe-Khotomlya highway.
You can paint the road red (Note: according to Soviet military conventions red is the color of one's own forces, for obvious reasons, in Western ones red is the color of the enemy) for a long time, but the real data from the field indicate the opposite: the road was in a gray zone, and the enemies were calmly driving along it, reaching Volchansk.
Engineering works have been underway in the vicinity of Hotomli for two days. At the narrowest point, the width of the Seversky Donets River reaches 500-600 meters. Riding a ferry on the site of the destroyed bridge at the old Saltov Dam is quite a challenge.
The Russian Armed Forces understand this: there is now a counteroffensive in the direction of Stary Saltov. A change of command in this area and a reassessment of priorities played a role.
We really do not believe in the optimistic promises to take Kharkov in three weeks, which some say, but it is clear that the mood of the Russian troops in the north of the Kharkiv region has changed qualitatively.
Despite the rather meager reports from the Izyum front, the fighting here is intense. Losses on our part have been reduced, and on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they have not only not decreased, but are even increasing. The main clashes are currently taking place in forests and small villages
In Izyum, the intensity of enemy shelling has significantly decreased, even somewhat unusually. Perhaps the enemy begins to have a shortage of shells, perhaps some of the enemy artillery will be removed or transferred to other directions.
On the front lineero, which now runs along the border of the Kharkov region and the DPR, the Kiev army continues to launch mass artillery attacks, but fires much less at depth.
Firstly, we do not reduce the intensity of artillery fire (at least the heroic 20 army), we continue to clear the forests, most of which have already been cleared of enemies
Other reports and news of interest:
100 days of special operation how long will it last?
Excellent report and very long and detailed, it gives estimates on losses and estimates that the Ukrainian army in Donbass has 40 days of resistance left, two months at most.
Accounts of battles
The myths of Mariupol
Ukrainian artillery: the obstacle to the Russian offensive
Vladlen Tatarsky - war correspondent
In April 2022, new goals of the "special operation" in Ukraine were announced, namely, the reaching of the Donetsk and Lugansk borders and consolidation in the already liberated territories. As I understand it, it was supposed to be attacked in two converging directions from the Zaporozhe region to the north and from the Izyum region to the south. If the bag was closed, more than 50 thousand people would be surrounded by the entire Ukrainian army. However, such a bold plan did not work out and we switched to the tactics of "small cauldrons".
The main difficulty in conducting offensive operations in Ukraine is that, in fact, our troops have to go on the attack when the enemy's artillery is not suppressed. Reasons why we could not suppress the artillery:
- the absence or a critically small number of artillery radars.
- lack of effective reconnaissance of enemy artillery positions.
- the absence or minuscule number of attack unmanned aerial vehicles or kamikaze drones to destroy enemy artillery, immediately after detection.
- lack of organization of the counter-battery war
– after detecting an enemy mortar or artillery position, a long time passes until our artillery was able to start suppressing it. This is strongly influenced by two factors: communication and, in fact, the qualifications of the weapons assistants.
- lack of a sufficient number of reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles to hunt enemy artillery around the clock.
You can throw enough infantry into battle, either armed with Kalashnikovs or even with Mosin bolt-action rifles, but neither of them will be able to reach the enemy's positions if the enemy artillery is not suppressed. Almost all fighters of assault groups, from different sectors of the front, note that the enemy, in 90% of cases, does not withstand hand-to-hand combat, especially newly formed units, and retreats. But due to the fact that the enemy artillery has not been eliminated, it is not possible to hold the positions already occupied.
You can gather as much infantry and equipment as you like, but the lack of an effective fight against the battery will simply turn any army, the bravest, into "cannon fodder" and prevent the fulfillment of geopolitical goals.
It is not a Masonic conspiracy that detains our troops, but specific shortcomings in the combat work of each commander.
In this regard it seems that the Russian counterbattery is working better and better according to this report from the Ukrainian side
The T-80 in combat: interview with a crewman
Another analysis that collects Western reports that confirm the exhaustion of the Ukrainian resistance and possible exits to war, my reservation is that the liberated parts of the Kiev regime will not constitute an independent Novorussia, but they will hold referendums on accession to Russia and independence will be an interim government.
Yet another analysis that indicates that the regime's army is now composed of 80% of untrained recruits and explains the tactic of bags that leave an open corridor for the enemy to retreat abandoning heavy material and baggage and thus avoid destruction and civilian casualties.