Russian special military operation in Ukraine #7

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Seems the battle of New York has started...




...The New York west of Gorlovka, that is.

Damn that' may be enough to confuse Biden and Schumer and Stoltenberg enough to invoke article 5

Poor Anderson Cooper and Rachel Maddow, they are gonna be looking for T-72s on Times Square and The New York Times will report, as soon as they can't find said tanks, that evil Russians now have ability to make themselves invisible. Wolf Blitzer will ask, "are there Russians under my bed?"

Thoughts on how the war is going. Am I right on this or wrong?

1. Putin claimed his aim was to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine. I think the Russian forces are doing that. Ukraine seems to have three main groupings of forces, one near Kiev that is mostly conscripts, one is near Odessa that is part conscript and half radicals, and the one in the east that is mostly hardcore and radicalized nazis. Even from wikipedia's map, and yes in this they are a tool for propaganda, we can see large pincers that are closing behind the radicals and the main aim will be to destroy them utterly and completely.

This goes with another aim

2. Recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR, these two independent territories lack sufficient military strength to defend their territorial integrity so you help them by wiping out Ukraine's military

So why is Russia surrounding but not driving on Kiev or Odessa? Simple, the aim is to tie those forces down and deal with them through sustained air and missile strikes.

3. I think that we are going to see the main ground operations in the Donbass and we are going to see airstrikes to degrade Ukrainian military power in the rest of the country.

Am I right on this or not?

Not true. Noone expected them to work overnight. And noone wants a regime change in Russia. If someone wants Russia not to succeede, than Putin must stay in Power

So calling putin the devil and sending in NGOs and money to overthrow him has been a doublebluff?

Most US politicians would give up their own children to get rid of Putin... he is the Russian leader they can't bribe or threaten... they hate him for good reasons... well... more accurately for very evil reasons, but that says more about them than it does about him.

Can you provide any source regarding the scaled back of sanctions? Because all recent news oints out to an increse on them. Good try anyway.

Well they were promising to kick Russia out of SWIFT but ended up allowing them to trade in gas and oil through SWIFT which is sort of a backtrack.

Also please stop posting conversations... delete the other replies before posting...

You are quite mistaken, they could have carried out the strike with another missile. It's not a school game to display a weapons destructive strength to a foe, this has been done throughout history and the Russians did such things in Syria.

The target was a bunker... a hypersonic weapon would be the most suitable tool for such a job...

I think they just decided to test Khinzal out really. Test it in combat operation.

The target was an underground bunker... a steeply diving hypersonic missile would be ideal for such a mission of punching into a hardened bunker and exploding inside.

Those are secondary results only, those are expensive weapons. Russia has cheaper weapons that could do the samething, there was one main reason why and the other reasons are merely secondary.

They had Iskander in mass production and very widely deployed for the last 15 years or so and apart from some launched during exercises they will likely have had old stock missiles they would need to use... they will have used by now.

The Kinzhal is an air launched Iskander and was likely made in the same factories and most likely made in large numbers, so this is a suitable use and suitable real life test of the whole system... the missiles were made and this would otherwise likely have been used during an exercise so essentially it hasn't cost anything.

From a tactical perspective makes no sense to use hypersonic UNLESS Russia fears Ukraine can intercept their other missiles. We have a difference in belief, we can leave it at that.

It makes every sense to use a hypersonic missile to defeat a bunker, that would be one of its uses and likely a dedicated warhead designed for just that purpose would exist and was likely used.

Regardless of where it lands, I am surprised at how well the Ukrainians are running the information war. They have been very effective at downplaying or even silencing bad news, this while they've been able to produce a steady stream of great news, most of it being some serious mental gymnastics or just outright made up obviously, but it serves its purpose as it's gulped up far and wide.

Well obviously their propaganda is working well because the western media is not critical of anything they say including phantom pilots wiping out the Russian Air Force in a couple of nights work, through to their coastal artillery sinking the Russian Navy... when obviously the reverse is true.

Otherwise, way more of them would have dropped details as the mercs did, who went to the same battlefields but weren't shy to admit that all they saw was just doom and gloom.

Probably the risk of getting caught and then shot limits the amount they are complaining, but such videos and comments will come out later when their nazi superiors are no longer holding pistols to their heads...

You could just as easily claim western countries are so in step with hating Russia for anything Russia does or does not do that the brainwashing has been very effective there too, but in some cases a short rinse was all that was required because small brains don't need too much washing or they end up washed away completely.

But there is one thing this war will teach them, tgey don't need state of art 2000km range missiles forbplebty of targets. A cheap ballistic or cruise missile with 300km range with good accuracy would have done the work for plenty of targets.

They have plenty of those... Iskander on the ground and Kh-18 and newer models of weapons like Grom and other types are entering production and use...

They could have used very cheap subsonic missiles with good seakers and the result would have been the same.

They have cheaper simpler systems... the new model Kh-35s have a range of 250km and full land attack capacity and new models of Kh-31 have similar range and much higher speed, and a huge range of new weapons being introduced as well of kh-58 and kh-59 missiles, as well as Grom and Grom 2.

Sure, Russia will sign many favorable trade deals with the Ukraine/Novorossiya so they can rebuild themselves with whatever industry they have left after the war, the Ukraine has lots of raw materials and produces semi finished goods that Asia needs.

The EU basically asset stripped the Ukraine and then used it as a weapon against Russia, but with them converted into a neutral country the west will have no further use for them so there wont be any investment of restoration of the assets they stripped or the damage they did to the country.

Money will not flow into the Ukraine from Russia but work possibly will and through that the Ukraine will get a decent economy going through free and fair trade with Russia and Belarus, so in that sense the Ukraine will flourish and grow and develop, but it wont be part of Russia and will be independent in terms of elections and its own direction... with some options off the table.

No more bio weapons labs, no nuclear weapons development, and no nazis.... but I would think that would be normal for any country on the planet... certainly the first two are actually international law.

They really need to keep 'conservative' Putin in power for as long as possible as his successor may well take a more aggressive approach.

One of the hallmarks of Putin is his restraint, and his careful consideration of the situation before responses that are measured and usually very productive for Russia.

The west in the past has seen that as weakness, but it is really a strength that they don't understand.

They are used to lashing out when they or their allies are attacked... though not this time of course, though the weapon supply and sanctions certainly are a form of lashing out.

also i noticed some analysts on twitter (yes they're legit, although they base their information based on OSINT) make conclusions that Russians are running out of missiles, based on stuff like appearance of Video of Tochka launchers somewhere in Belarus or Russia, and some consider the Kinzhal attack as a sign Russians are running low on Iskanders.

It was an attack on a bunker... the extra speed of the Kinzhal would have made it the most effective weapon to use in that situation.

They withdrew Tochka from operational service about 10 years ago in Russia... if there is video of launches then it is either old video or they are Ukrainian missiles.

The fact that the west often runs out of missiles during operations doesn't mean Russia would too... the Russians make lots of missiles when they make them...

Western missiles are vastly more expensive than Russian ones so they never buy enough.

Guys why isn't tochka used by Russia ?

It's old, it's shorter ranged, and all the criticisms you can say

But tochka can do the same job... Russia has 700+ missiles

Why not just expend them ?

The TELs are older and more expensive to operate because each TEL only carries one missile. The missiles themselves are not that much cheaper than the Iskander and the range is less than half.... 160km or thereabouts compared with 480km for Iskander.

Russian tochkas were seen delivered by an-124 yesterday.

When they withdrew them from service they likely put them in reserve, so using up those missiles would make good sense... using rubbish to destroy rubbish... it could almost be called recycling.

It's better for you not to waste your time, you will lose health through stress

Just enjoy the show

Stop trying to convince anyone, it's really doesn't matter or factor into Russia

Lavrov has said Russia will not attempt to repair relations

Russia doesn't give a **** no more my man

Just let it go

Russia will not try to restore relations with the west now, they are essentially pivoting to the rest of the world for their future... they will likely continue to sell gas to the EU and those that want to buy it, but when that pipe from the gas fields where the gas going to the EU to China is completed I suspect any extra orders from China will take precedence over orders for the EU... and I am so pleased the new pipe will go through Mongolia... the income it will generate for them is well deserved and will be very good for that country...

[qutoe]I do not know the weapon specs of its weapon components.

the kenetic force alone is sufficient to break trough a few floors of reinforced concrete if they can armour up the payload penetrator.
As in enters confined spaces like bunkers, the blast wave has nowhere to expand to.
It turns the bunker inside out, its occupants first in a fraction if an second.[/quote]

Indeed for an explosive in an enclosed space with the only opening the entry hole it used to get in even a small explosive charge is devastating, so replacing the 500kg HE warhead with a 500kg warhead where say 150kgs is HE and the other 350kgs is metal casing the shape of a shuttle cock with the HE filler in the rear portion where the skirt is... the metal will allow the warhead to penetrate into the ground and into the bunker and then the HE charge explodes... in fact I would go with a heavy metal front penetrator cap and a thermobaric warhead to burn the oxygen out of the bunker and generate heat so any HE or propellent in the bunker will be set off too...

Andrey Tkachev on the chechens in Russia, he said they are one with Russia again

They are like the Scottish... dangerous and keen to fight, but you want them on your side in a war... just remember not to neglect them in peace time... when war comes again you wont regret it.

Some of their traditions are strange, but they are not aliens.

But that is the West its problem, it should NEVER become your people's problem.
Stick to Russia, and things will be fine for Serbia.

And can I say not all westerners eat that shit up.

I knew something was wrong when every side in that conflict seemed to be committing war crimes, but it was only ever the Serbs that got called out on it and even then the crimes were less than the crimes committed by HATO to pretend to resolve the issues.

During in the early 2000s I got the chance to have a chat with a pilot at an airshow here, he was Serbian and was over because some rich local had bought a MiG-21 and he was flying it for him (a two seat). The first thing he said was apologise for being Serbian, which I told him not to be ashamed... Serbia wasnt the problem... the west was the problem.

He might have thought it was a test, but I was sincere.

don't worry, we still have spirit ..

Just remember to be nice to your neighbours when the house of cards collapses and they are second class citizens...

Since most of you have left the topic of weapons systems, I have to deviate a little from the topic.
I know that this is not the topic of this story, but I have a feeling that after this conflict, the production of Su-57 aircraft will be increased. I think that an additional contingent could be ordered on the already ordered 76 planes until 2027.
This also applies to the T-90M tanks and of course the T-14.
And off course, more submarines...

This conflict will shift focus of defence and I think will lead to an increase in funding for transport aircraft (and civilian airliners in parallel to replace foreign types in use), but the real winner will be the Navy... the Russians will have to shift its trade focus from the EU and the west to the rest of the world which means they will need a blue water navy to support and protect that trade... countries are not going to trade with Russia if the US will then launch an invasion and regime change like they tried with Venezuela or Syria or Libya.

@ GarryB, i sticked the RDN refference on Odysee.
If you want me to remove it. i will without question. its your forum.

That is fine.

They wont be able to join for a month or two till the dust settles though as I have disabled new users for a bit.

I think UAV in general are the clear winners. Orion in numbers are missing, but also Okhotnik and very importantly Altius and Helios RLD.

I would want to wait a bit, they are clearly using UAVs and obviously they are useful, but we are all assuming they didn't use them at the start and then suddenly started using them.

First of all we don't know if that is true or not, and I rather suspect the plan would certainly be to use them now in their hunt for small groups of enemies when the enemy air defence has been thinned, to look for ambush teams near Russian convoys or positions, and also to look for targets for artillery.

They have quite a few Forpost drones and we now know they have Kornet and a range of other weapons they can use to deal with any threats they come across.

Among the fighters, the LTS is what is called for in this type of mission. Many of them. And some bigger bombers with low RCS would be a nice addition too

I would say low IR signature and ability to operate from altitude with powerful optics to find and engage ground targets would be more valuable... small bombs with command guidance kits and moveable fins... a pointed hardened steel tip nose penetrator means it could penetrate the top armour of a vehicle with the explosive charge detonating inside... devastating. dropped from 10km it would be moving at better than supersonic speed on impact.

I think it is RPG-26

Later in the video there are two launched disposable rocket tubes on the ground... the further away one looked like an RPG-26, but the other looked like an RPO... at about 22 seconds left of the video to go you can see them both on the ground.

Just taking Novorussia will mean that NATO will only strengthen its positions in Europe

They thought after March 8th they would get to add the Donbass and Lugansk regions to Ukraine and be looking at the Crimea as being next...

Objective of Russia is to make Kiev capitulate one way or the other and make the Ukraine a truly neutral state.

Kiev is irrelevant... if Zelensky signed a surrender order right now do you think the nazis would just surrender knowing they are likely going to jail... if they are lucky?

Zelenskys word is worth less than shit.

Taking territories or creating Novorussia I don't think is on the agenda. At the most it's a backup plan. I think even the DNR and LNR can be added back into a neutral Ukraine as autonomous republics.

Will require referendums, but Putin wont be telling them what they will or wont be doing... he will be giving them some choices that Russia will accept and Russia will not accept a Ukraine that is part of the EU or HATO, both of which have security guarantees for their members that could start WWIII if Russia has to do this again.

The chain reaction of events

There are anti-NATO protests activating now in Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria.

If the Ukrainian regime falls Orban will pull his country from the globalist military alliance known as NATO formally now in addition to de-facto.

Macedonia and Montenegro are hedging their bets

There also mass protests in Albania now over fuel and food costs. I do<snip>

When I first read that I thought that was crazy, but in this day and age who knows, I am so used to seeing things happen because the US pays for it and caters the event with cookies, but when things are not looking good and Ukraine has been abandoned by its western allies yet actually seems better off after a few years trading with Russia they might start to think maybe Russia evil monster wanting to invade us and steal our cookies is a lie and all they really want to do is trade in an open and fair way... unlike the west who bullies and steals and threatens.

Who knows what might happen... I know I don't.

Always optimistic though.

That's why the U.S came up with guided rockets like the BAE PKWS among others that are Fire and Forget precision rockets and can be fired from stand off range.

Russia could never come up with such precision guided rockets.

Don't you get it? Great against third world countries, but not so good against the Russian Army which rolls with Tunguska and TOR and has Igla-S and Verba MANPADS and BUK as part of a network defending the troops moving forward from such things.

Pretty soon they will have Coaltion with guided shells reaching 70kms to hit targets, and that range is expected to more than double in the near future with new ammo.

These are Naval Infantry and VDV forces, who don't normally destroy countries on their own... usually what would normally happen is they would clear the way for conventional forces to then come in and destroy the enemy armed forces... this is Russia lite.

This depict Patriot missiles being transported to Slovakia, so i guess they are willing to transfer their only S-300PS battery to Ukraine i guess.