Russian special military operation in Ukraine #3

flamming_python wrote:
The Ukraine won't be split, at least not by Russia

But even in the scenario of maximum Russian military success, the western half of the country won't come under its control, there will probably be a new Ukrainian govt. declared in Lvov if the one in Kiev falls.

That is your opinion only.
And this opinion stands in the opposite to what Putin was saying for a long time: that if there will be a force solution applied to resolve the security concerns for the republics, Ukraine will cease to exist in it's present form.
Leaving it is just moving the same problems into the future.
They won't get their hands off the water canal, that is more than sure.
They will resolve Transdnistria issue by connecting it with the rest of Russian controlled territory.
It is impossible without a full reconstruction of historical Novorussia.
If you are to do it anyway, why don't keep it ?

ALAMO wrote:

flamming_python wrote:
The Ukraine won't be split, at least not by Russia

But even in the scenario of maximum Russian military success, the western half of the country won't come under its control, there will probably be a new Ukrainian govt. declared in Lvov if the one in Kiev falls.

That is your opinion only.
And this opinion stands in the opposite to what Putin was saying for a long time: that if there will be a force solution applied to resolve the security concerns for the republics, Ukraine will cease to exist in it's present form.
Leaving it is just moving the same problems into the future.
They won't get their hands off the water canal, that is more than sure.
They will resolve Transdnistria issue by connecting it with the rest of Russian controlled territory.
It is impossible without a full reconstruction of historical Novorussia.
If you are to do it anyway, why don't keep it ?

The Ukraine will stay in its present borders. The DNR/LNR will be added to it, if the new federal Ukraine is successfully declared. Those republics are just a means to an end. You only have to look at China's position, and the rest of the states which support Russia - who talk about how the Ukraine's territorial integrity should be preserved, to understand that.
Russia itself has talked about how the Ukraine as a state will be left alone, and its only questions are towards its leadership. If its leadership refuses to make a deal, so then the whole country will be reformatted, maybe with the capital at Kharkov - but the objective will be to take Kiev and the rest of its territory under its control.

Right now, Russia will try to shift from military occupation, towards administration and forming up of new anti-Nazi forces in under control regions; to give the whole invasion legitimacy as a civil war. Which ultimately of course, it has been since 2014. The so-called 'de-nazification' part of the operation.

Nothing is going to be added to Russia proper.

As I said, this is just your opinion.
And as I have informed you, this is not what Putin was saying.

I am honest, i had at the start much sympathy with Ukraine and i didnt believe the Russian story.

But when i saw a video that the Azov batallions put their bullets in pork lard before filling their magazines (preparing to fight Kadirov's units) and a video were some multinational Russian soldiers (Dagestanis, Buryats, Tatars) were hold POW and badly interrogated by those banderistanis, i saw the big picture and changed my mind.

Russia must also watch out for the Chinese in the Far East. Never put all your power in the West.

Broski wrote:

If you disregard Crimea, that map looks about as correct as it could be

Arkanghelsk wrote:Denazification operations in cities will resemble anti terror ops in Dagestan

Heavy FSB spetsnaz with flamethrower , nerekhta,  Uran 9, Lancet, Orlan, and Bmps encircling buildings with nazis, using bulletproof shields, Bizon pp19, as val , and other such weapons for anti terror /denazification

They will use special forces and robots to take the cities with overhead drone support

Its Dagestan 2.0

Maybe after the active phase of war is over and we enter COIN phase. Right now not even the liberated cities are safe enough for that kind of operation, it needs a high level of planning, intel, coordination and a large security cordon to work. it is not practical, And it is not something that ordinary soldiers train to do. In the foreseeable future house clearing will be done by the age old tried and tested method of suppressing the house from outside with heavy support and if possible just kill everyone inside without having to do dangerous room to room fighting. just like USMC in fallujah. it is just a fact of combat, if you enter a defended house risks of casualties increase exponentially. Also the number of units with the level of training to pull of ops like you talk about is very low (5% ish?) and they are most likely tasked with a much more important mission right now. Gathering intel deep inside enemy held territory. Any infantry unit can suppress a building with BMPs until it falls over, but to enter and clear it like you say is tier one shit.

@f_p

The DNR/LNR are already recognized by Russia as independent - I can't see them being part of any Ukrainian federation in the near future. They are more likely to join the RF and I suspect most of the East and Southern parts will follow suite.

Meanwhile this is what the West is trying

Sujoy wrote:Meanwhile this is what the West is trying

https://twitter.com/R_Zandi/status/1499375622270947331?s=20&t=KJyKbaCLHVaCPYymNoe55g

Good for Iran if this is true, I just hope they don't forget how the West treated them for the last 43 years and turn their backs on Russia in the process.

Arkanghelsk wrote:Especially with death of 500 Russians so far, Russia will not give anything back to hohols

The consequences of statehood for Ukraine have been invoked

Ukraine as we knew it disappeared February 22

And where is Russia going to fund the troops to take all of Ukraine? Will they start sending in cadets and conscripts?

You have been delusional and claiming this and that with these rants.

Russia can’t sustain this high of a casualty rate forever.

Amusing.

An ol` pal flamming_python thinks it would be best it if Armed forces of Russian Federation in the conclusion of all this just retreated to her borders. That`s stupidity bordering on treason. Still likely though, knowing our "tough man Vlad".

That would mean all recourses, all the blood and life spent are for nothing - there will be, immediately, another anti-Russian regime in Kiev, that will just start to building up from ruins we`ll left them. Not even a zero-sum game, a loss.
There is no nice solution to all of this. It is an existential crisis for RF - either it wins it, and endures the consequences, or it will be cancelled, subjugated, crushed, split, depopulated and robbed.

It is a pivotal point in fable of globalism with its reigns you know where. Either it crushes ambitions of sovereignty of Russia, and everyone else (for their satisfaction), or it just dies.
For Russia, it is a chance. I hope it makes use of it, as much as I doubt it, with her sissy leadership.
Don`t judge. Its view form within.

miketheterrible wrote:https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1499385395599101953?s=20&t=sxrcYCzYQq-5Cn_JX3MhbA

Units from Kadirov brigade showing off trophies.

wow in that link.. people in discussions who understand what the chechen is saying ,he
told apparently that 2500 ukraine forces ran away from their placces , when they saw the chechen army. So chechens took a city without much fighting.  


If Putin was as sick and evil ,as the west , He could easily offer all muslims in asia and middle east to join the chechens crusade in ukraine that after ukraine they will be liberating Europe from nazis and install islam there and that russia will provide them air cover and weapons.  

if putin wanted to really destroy all europe political order and remove NATO by force and all those american military bases and over run those countries he could do it by creating an alliance with the muslim world..  conquer europe and it will be their . and russia will provide safe passage ,weapons ,food ,logistics and support.  the whole pakistan army and iranian army fighting as anti nazis ,anti nato mercenaries , fully armed and fully supported by russia can do it.

Technically speaking , if morals and values and human rights ignored and all that matter is power and conquest fast.  Russia could easily defeat NATO in europe without using nuclear weapons at all , with the right politics and influence tactics..  Russia could send 1 billion of mercenaries into europe , to over run it.  The danger however is if that same army later turn against russia too.

There were reports of the US suddenly disfavoring Greece's pipeline project, looking into F-35 sales to Turkey again, the EU putting membership on the table again for Tukrey, and a bunch of other things.

Yeah and the EU is showing its real face.. they are clear cut enemies of Russia. and all this consessions to turkey is an attempt to lure Erdogan into declaring war against Russia ,so he blocks the entry and leave of the black sea ,with nato providing weapons from behind.

Putin should make no illusions , that the west will ever accept Russia as an equal or that ever it will be respected.. it was europe who created the ukraine war that start in 2014 and they turned a blind eye on the 8 years bombardment on civilians cities and genocide right in russian borders.. this was all planned operation to force russia to invade ukraine.. in 2015 , poroshenko was doing artillery strikes on russia main land cities , and even killed russians citizens inside russia.. nothing like that happened since NAZIS invaded russia in world war 2 , that russians cities were attacked by a foreign army on russian borders.

kvs wrote:

Regular wrote:Both sides spread bullshit, you have to be infantile to think otherwise. Media war Russia is fighting is not directed towards Western Audiences

BS.  The NATzO-Ukr side is spewing pure shit.   The other side, from all the telegram channels I track is NOT.

Believe what you want to believe. I am not preaching. In the end - it's up to you to form an opinion. And it's actually healthy for critical thinking. As mentioned before, I am against the war and I would like to think there could be a diplomatic solution, but if this hasn't happened since 2014, then there's no chance for it until a certain amount of blood is spilled. But it doesn't matter what I am for or against, I am not making decisions

I am not crazy to argue that Ukr/Western (usually parrots Ukrainian media) don't spew propaganda. Their propaganda is the most primitive one and actually discredits them that I am having a very hard time believing anything they say.

But Telegram channels are NOT OFFICIAL REPORTS, they might contain official reports, but they are not government mouthpieces and no one checks them. The worse TG groups are where you have user-generating unconfirmed and unchecked reports that are either too optimistic or too pessimistic. I am not even talking about Ukrainian groups... It's "zrada" or "peremoha" every 5 minutes, they say they are winning the war and 5 minutes they are saying they are losing. What I've noticed is that there is a certain type of people and on both sides, who want to become famous, they want to exploit attention and for no understandable reason, distort what is really going on.

So far Russian propaganda is painting a rosy picture and is making it look like a special operation, walk in the park and it doesn't show horrors of war at all. We see that it's still at the conventional war phase with all the horrors.

This war is horrifying, as soon as cauldrons will be closed, it will be a massacre. Couldn't care about Azov or Foreigners fighting, but they are not the bulk there.

ALAMO wrote:

flamming_python wrote:
The Ukraine won't be split, at least not by Russia

But even in the scenario of maximum Russian military success, the western half of the country won't come under its control, there will probably be a new Ukrainian govt. declared in Lvov if the one in Kiev falls.

That is your opinion only.
And this opinion stands in the opposite to what Putin was saying for a long time: that if there will be a force solution applied to resolve the security concerns for the republics, Ukraine will cease to exist in it's present form.
Leaving it is just moving the same problems into the future.
They won't get their hands off the water canal, that is more than sure.
They will resolve Transdnistria issue by connecting it with the rest of Russian controlled territory.
It is impossible without a full reconstruction of historical Novorussia.
If you are to do it anyway, why don't keep it ?

Months ago I mentioned on here that if Russia were going to invade they would take kharkiv all the way to Odessa (Southern Ukraine) and link up with Transnistria and Gagauzia and would make Ukraine landlocked as well as taking the best bits of their industry. The Novorussia map is about correct this will form a new pro Russian federation.

The malorussia will be a neutral country. While the western part will become a neo Nazi enclave. Pro EU anti russian sh*thole and probably never be part of EU but will survive through IMF life support for the rest of it's days.

The reason for linking up with Transnistria and Gagauzia is if the west try any tricks against Russia, Russia has the card up his sleeve to threaten Moldova invasion and EU and NATO know this.

Novorussia will benefit from Russian, Chinese, Indian, Iranian investment into the heavy industries their. As well as oil and gas fields onshore and offshore. China will be interested in buying coal after Australian coal saga, so possibly a coal for investment deal between the two. And if Poltava is included in Novorussia this will give Russia a Soviet bomber airfield which could come in handy buzzing EU countries.

The whole scenario gives Russia a buffer zone, with Novorussia, plus the neutral malorussia. It will be able to stomach Nazi enclave.

-------

Both sides spread bullshit, you have to be infantile to think otherwise. Media war Russia is fighting is not directed towards Western Audiences

After 22 years of trying it seems Putin has given up on the west, but for the rest of the world he explains what he is doing or trying to do.

Russia still lags a bit behind in deploying FLIR pods or similar in large numbers, and even if they had large numbers the weather have not been good for operations at that altitude.

Russia lags behind in FLIR pods that every Soviet fighter since the 1970s has been equipped with?

MiG-25s, MiG-31s, late model MiG-23s, MiG-29s, Su-27s and other models of Flanker and Fulcrum all have FLIR fitted as standard and fully integrated with radar and helmet mounted sights and high offboresight missiles...

The media war hasn't been won by anyone yet. Once the truth is out that's when it's won. Western media looks like it's winning but in the long it won't. Just remember Iraq war propaganda and how the truth came out in the end (zero weapons of mass Destruction)

Not to mention the big lie about how effective Patriot was...

The U.S learned their lesson with the tie eater, and innovated with Guaido.

And how did that work out?

Russia will do better because it will create regions and let them hold their own elections and elect their own people.

A few pages back it was mentioned that Zelensky would most likely flee the Ukraine and continue to act as President in absentia, just as Guaido tried to do to Venezuela.

Guano was never elected president... and most Venezuelans probably didn't know who he was until the US declared him president.

Right now, Russia will try to shift from military occupation, towards administration and forming up of new anti-Nazi forces in under control regions; to give the whole invasion legitimacy as a civil war. Which ultimately of course, it has been since 2014. The so-called 'de-nazification' part of the operation.

Nothing is going to be added to Russia proper.

I agree but it is impossible for there to be a one Ukraine with all its bits intact... Crimea wont leave the RF and the Donbass and Lugansk wont likely join Kiev or Lvov.

It will be like Yugoslavia, but Russia will be acting like London and Paris and will be picking the lines of borders but the people will be voting for their own governments which will not be part of the Russian Federation.

Breaking the country into four bits makes sense because there are factions in these places that simply do not play well together and would end up abusing the other if they make it into power.

The four regions might merge into three or two, but I think they probably decided on those four regions because of the location of certain important things... they want to keep out of the hands of the west/nazis.

Russia must also watch out for the Chinese in the Far East. Never put all your power in the West.

I trust the Chinese more than I trust Europeans...

The DNR/LNR are already recognized by Russia as independent - I can't see them being part of any Ukrainian federation in the near future. They are more likely to join the RF and I suspect most of the East and Southern parts will follow suite.

They were recognised as independent of Kiev, I don't think they will become or want to become part of the Russian federation... as long as they get security guarantees I am sure they will be happy being good neighbours.

https://www.russiadefence.net/t8755-russian-special-military-operation-in-ukraine-4