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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

    Backman
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 28 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

    Post  Backman Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:18 pm

    https://twitter.com/DeanoBeano1/status/1384080652698415109?s=19


    As has been reported , Ukraine forces have delivered a "massive blow" to Gorlovka. The shelling damaged 8 substations and knocked the power out for a bunch of ppl.

    When does this count as war ? Looks like they are slowly softening up the line.
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    Post  franco Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:25 pm

    When they come across the line attack meanwhile it is just sniper

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    auslander
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    Post  auslander Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:21 pm

    Backman wrote:https://twitter.com/DeanoBeano1/status/1384080652698415109?s=19
    As has been reported , Ukraine forces have delivered a "massive blow" to Gorlovka. The shelling damaged 8 substations and knocked the power out for a bunch of ppl.
    When does this count as war  ? Looks like they are slowly softening up the line.
    Backman, not trying to negate you in any way, but twitter is far from being a reliable source for much of anything. I can take you to outlying villages from our little village on the Sea to the Krimu/orc border that look exactly the same and that vid could have been taken any time between roughly April '14 to this morning.

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:02 pm

    Backman wrote:https://twitter.com/DeanoBeano1/status/1384080652698415109?s=19


    As has been reported , Ukraine forces have delivered a "massive blow" to Gorlovka. The shelling damaged 8 substations and knocked the power out for a bunch of ppl.

    When does this count as war  ? Looks like they are slowly softening up the line.

    Its recognized as a civil war but not an actual war has the world sees those breakaway regions as part of Ukraine not independent states.

    So your statement is more "Why isn't Russia doing something" Well long as the rebels exist that's all they want, Putin doesn't wanna have to commit military action if he doesn't have to, there is too much on the line.

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 28 Empty Ukraine should look to US for air defenses, improved air force, says former defense adviser

    Post  Finty Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:07 pm

    Old-ish article but worth sharing again etc...

    Ukraine should look to US for air defenses, improved air force, says former defense adviser

    https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/03/17/ukrainian-official-us-should-help-improve-air-defense-systems-air-assets/

    Defence News wrote:
    WASHINGTON — The recent decision by the Biden administration to send $125 million in military aid for Ukraine is a welcome site in Kyiv, but the country needs and deserves much more, according to a former chief adviser to Ukraine’s defense minister.

    “It is clear that Ukraine is not unique among the list of countries who are supported by the U.S. government,” Oleksandr Danylyuk, now chairman of the Ukrainian Center for Defense Reforms think tank, said in a recent telephone interview from Kyiv. “But it is also clear that Ukraine provides a lot of security for the U.S.”

    The package, announced March 1, included two Mark VI patrol boats as well as “counter-artillery radars and tactical equipment; continued support for a satellite imagery and analysis capability; and equipment to support military medical treatment and combat evacuation procedures,” per the Pentagon.

    That marked the first military aid to Ukraine under the Biden administration, and more could be coming; there is another $150 million appropriated by Congress for the fiscal 2021 Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, but that money is gated off until the U.S. Defense and State departments jointly certify there has been “sufficient progress” made by Ukraine on military reform efforts.

    Danylyuk, who has advised Ukraine’s government in modernizing its armed forces, particularly its special forces, argued two key points that make Ukraine worthy of increased aid. The first is that country’s 1994 decision to remove from its soil nearly 200 intercontinental ballistic missiles and nearly 2,000 nuclear warheads in exchange for a guarantee of sovereignty from Russia.

    The second, and far more current, argument he made is that by taking on Russia in the Donbas and elsewhere, Ukraine is expending its own blood and treasure to protect U.S. allies like Poland and the Baltics, and ultimately America itself.

    The country has made a concerted effort to boost its presence across the European Union's and NATO's institutions as an advertisement of its commitment to the West.

    “Ukraine deserves much bigger support from a moral point of view and from a very practical point of view,” Danylyuk said. “No disrespect, but Ukraine deserves more than Egypt or Jordan.” Those two countries receive significant military aid from the U.S.

    Specifically, Danylyuk said he would like to see the U.S have more high-level military-to-military interactions to discuss mutual tactical and strategic objectives.

    Luke Coffey, an international affairs expert with the Washington-based Heritage Foundation think tank, believes relations between the U.S. and Ukraine will be easier under the Biden administration than during the last 18 months of the Trump administration, when arms support for Ukraine became tied up in the first impeachment trial of President Donald Trump.

    “I think where we’ll see a change will be in terms of the rhetoric that’s used about Ukraine and its Euro-Atlantic aspirations in NATO and the European Union,” Coffey predicted. “But also I think we’ll see more funding and financial support” from the U.S.


    While Coffey is skeptical there will be a shift toward major American military exercises in Ukraine, Ian Brzezinski, a European expert with the Atlantic Council, said such an expansion is needed, feasible and would be a strong sign of support for Ukraine.

    “Right now, we basically do ship visits and tactical training for the military,” Brzezinski said. “What about sending a brigade or battalion into Ukraine for a few months? That would provide a higher-intensity level of engagement and training for the Ukrainians, and it would complicate Russian planning by demonstrating that one cannot ignore the risk of U.S. intervention in Ukraine in the event Moscow acts radically again.”

    “The top officials of the Biden administration largely come from the Obama team. They’re seasoned, they have a new leader, but it’s not yet fully clear how their policies are going to differ from the Obama years. They need to articulate and demonstrate that they [are] less averse to conflict and will [be] more assertive in combatting aggression,” he added. “Some of their initial statements and actions are obviously useful in this regard but do not yet clearly distinguish the administration from the Obama years.”

    Regarding the recently released military assistance package to Ukraine, Brzezinski said: “Clearly the Ukrainians need this, but there is more the U.S. can and should do.”

    Equipment wish list

    In terms of material items, Danylyuk said more air defense and anti-missile systems are needed. He specifically cited the Patriot and Tomahawk missiles as something Ukraine desires.

    The Patriot makes sense on paper, as it would come heavily into play should Russia ever fully invade Ukraine, said Brzezinski. “The Russians are all about using missiles to shut down an adversary’s command-and-control structures, critical sensors, and logistical systems; that’s why Ukraine needs more robust air and missile defense capacities,” he said.

    But he noted the level and type of missile defense capabilities the U.S. can and should provide would be in part determined by Ukraine’s capacity to afford and properly use those systems.

    That same concern would exist for any high-end fighter aircraft — something Danylyuk said is another priority. The Ukrainian Air Force heavily relies on obsolete Soviet airframes, and “we need to replace them with something more modern,” he said.

    When asked if Ukraine is interested in a fifth-generation fighter like the F-35, Danylyuk said the stealth fighter is on the list of air assets Ukraine would eventually like to have.

    More directly, “there’s no way, in my opinion, that Ukraine should even remotely consider a platform like the F-35 right now,” Coffey said, given the unit cost and operational requirements for the advanced fighter. “For the type of threat that they face and are involved in right now, I don’t see how they could feasibly purchase F-35s.”

    Instead, Coffey suggested Ukraine should look to alternatives for air power, including Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 unmanned systems that have proven effective against Russian equipment in Libya, in Syria and during the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    Danylyuk also said he would like to see more joint U.S.-Ukraine weapons systems development programs. “That could be very useful,” he said.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 28 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

    Post  Yugo90 Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:38 pm

    Finty wrote:Old-ish article but worth sharing again etc...

    Ukraine should look to US for air defenses, improved air force, says former defense adviser

    https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/03/17/ukrainian-official-us-should-help-improve-air-defense-systems-air-assets/

    Defence News wrote:
    WASHINGTON — The recent decision by the Biden administration to send $125 million in military aid for Ukraine is a welcome site in Kyiv, but the country needs and deserves much more, according to a former chief adviser to Ukraine’s defense minister.

    “It is clear that Ukraine is not unique among the list of countries who are supported by the U.S. government,” Oleksandr Danylyuk, now chairman of the Ukrainian Center for Defense Reforms think tank, said in a recent telephone interview from Kyiv. “But it is also clear that Ukraine provides a lot of security for the U.S.”

    The package, announced March 1, included two Mark VI patrol boats as well as “counter-artillery radars and tactical equipment; continued support for a satellite imagery and analysis capability; and equipment to support military medical treatment and combat evacuation procedures,” per the Pentagon.

    That marked the first military aid to Ukraine under the Biden administration, and more could be coming; there is another $150 million appropriated by Congress for the fiscal 2021 Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, but that money is gated off until the U.S. Defense and State departments jointly certify there has been “sufficient progress” made by Ukraine on military reform efforts.

    Danylyuk, who has advised Ukraine’s government in modernizing its armed forces, particularly its special forces, argued two key points that make Ukraine worthy of increased aid. The first is that country’s 1994 decision to remove from its soil nearly 200 intercontinental ballistic missiles and nearly 2,000 nuclear warheads in exchange for a guarantee of sovereignty from Russia.

    The second, and far more current, argument he made is that by taking on Russia in the Donbas and elsewhere, Ukraine is expending its own blood and treasure to protect U.S. allies like Poland and the Baltics, and ultimately America itself.

    The country has made a concerted effort to boost its presence across the European Union's and NATO's institutions as an advertisement of its commitment to the West.

    “Ukraine deserves much bigger support from a moral point of view and from a very practical point of view,” Danylyuk said. “No disrespect, but Ukraine deserves more than Egypt or Jordan.” Those two countries receive significant military aid from the U.S.

    Specifically, Danylyuk said he would like to see the U.S have more high-level military-to-military interactions to discuss mutual tactical and strategic objectives.

    Luke Coffey, an international affairs expert with the Washington-based Heritage Foundation think tank, believes relations between the U.S. and Ukraine will be easier under the Biden administration than during the last 18 months of the Trump administration, when arms support for Ukraine became tied up in the first impeachment trial of President Donald Trump.

    “I think where we’ll see a change will be in terms of the rhetoric that’s used about Ukraine and its Euro-Atlantic aspirations in NATO and the European Union,” Coffey predicted. “But also I think we’ll see more funding and financial support” from the U.S.


    While Coffey is skeptical there will be a shift toward major American military exercises in Ukraine, Ian Brzezinski, a European expert with the Atlantic Council, said such an expansion is needed, feasible and would be a strong sign of support for Ukraine.

    “Right now, we basically do ship visits and tactical training for the military,” Brzezinski said. “What about sending a brigade or battalion into Ukraine for a few months? That would provide a higher-intensity level of engagement and training for the Ukrainians, and it would complicate Russian planning by demonstrating that one cannot ignore the risk of U.S. intervention in Ukraine in the event Moscow acts radically again.”

    “The top officials of the Biden administration largely come from the Obama team. They’re seasoned, they have a new leader, but it’s not yet fully clear how their policies are going to differ from the Obama years. They need to articulate and demonstrate that they [are] less averse to conflict and will [be] more assertive in combatting aggression,” he added. “Some of their initial statements and actions are obviously useful in this regard but do not yet clearly distinguish the administration from the Obama years.”

    Regarding the recently released military assistance package to Ukraine, Brzezinski said: “Clearly the Ukrainians need this, but there is more the U.S. can and should do.”

    Equipment wish list

    In terms of material items, Danylyuk said more air defense and anti-missile systems are needed. He specifically cited the Patriot and Tomahawk missiles as something Ukraine desires.

    The Patriot makes sense on paper, as it would come heavily into play should Russia ever fully invade Ukraine, said Brzezinski. “The Russians are all about using missiles to shut down an adversary’s command-and-control structures, critical sensors, and logistical systems; that’s why Ukraine needs more robust air and missile defense capacities,” he said.

    But he noted the level and type of missile defense capabilities the U.S. can and should provide would be in part determined by Ukraine’s capacity to afford and properly use those systems.

    That same concern would exist for any high-end fighter aircraft — something Danylyuk said is another priority. The Ukrainian Air Force heavily relies on obsolete Soviet airframes, and “we need to replace them with something more modern,” he said.

    When asked if Ukraine is interested in a fifth-generation fighter like the F-35, Danylyuk said the stealth fighter is on the list of air assets Ukraine would eventually like to have.

    More directly, “there’s no way, in my opinion, that Ukraine should even remotely consider a platform like the F-35 right now,” Coffey said, given the unit cost and operational requirements for the advanced fighter. “For the type of threat that they face and are involved in right now, I don’t see how they could feasibly purchase F-35s.”

    Instead, Coffey suggested Ukraine should look to alternatives for air power, including Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 unmanned systems that have proven effective against Russian equipment in Libya, in Syria and during the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    Danylyuk also said he would like to see more joint U.S.-Ukraine weapons systems development programs. “That could be very useful,” he said.
    well USA is going to try anything to keep ukraine away from Russia and to get them on their side. So i think there will be alot of American weapons and stuff in their military. But i still think USA has too expensive weapons for poor Ukraine. I don't believe they would give everything for free....ir maybe they could be like israel who gets billions from USA to buy their weapons....i think they get around 3 billions. Every year. Maybe they will give something simmilar to ukraines if they follow their instructions and be good puppies....
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 28 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

    Post  PapaDragon Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:16 am

    nero wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:Armor and troops will not be doing anything, they are being moved to send a message

    If 404s try something for real we will just have VKS going on a rampage for a week or two and erase everything with Ukrainian flag on it after which NAF will move forward to take more territory

    You can jack off to the image of the VKS bombing the Ukrainian troops to oblivion, though that is never going to happen realistically. The Russians do not manage escalation like a bunch of kindergarten kids. They're not into outright murder, especially given that the people on the other side are mostly poor conscripts....

    Those ''poor conscripts'' are the enemy and if they become a threat to NAF in the case of 404s going on offensive they will get ''murdered'' plain and simple



    nero wrote:....You'll note that they've moved formations from the Central and Eastern MD's (i.e. T-80's). They wouldn't bother doing any of that if it 'was for show' because the Western and Southern MD's are one of the best armed in Russia. It just so happens that Southern MD's HQ is Rostov-on-Don. They already had all of the formations required in place.

    So ''poor conscripts'' will not get ''murdered'' by aircraft but will get ''murdered'' by tanks?

    Why would Russia do what the Ukraine wants it to do?

    Russian land formations are there for show, if 404s do anything this becomes VKS' gig





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    Post  DerWolf Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:24 am

    You'll note that they've moved formations from the Central and Eastern MD's (i.e. T-80's).

    Russia has lots of tanks in west ans south t-72, t-90. Why to bring t-80 from that far east, I dont get it?
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    Post  auslander Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:38 am

    DerWolf wrote:
    You'll note that they've moved formations from the Central and Eastern MD's (i.e. T-80's).

    Russia has lots of tanks in west ans south t-72, t-90. Why to bring t-80 from that far east, I dont get it?

    Everybody gets a piece of the action. It's called 'blooding the troops', they get to see things up close and personal, you know, kinda like Syria wherein tens of thousands of Russian troops have rotated in and out for a sniff of gunpowder.

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    Post  lyle6 Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:35 am

    Shuffling troops and their equipment and supplies thousands of miles on very strict timetables is a very important capability for a continental power such as Russia. Remember it was the timely arrival of Siberian troops that was instrumental in the defence of Moscow and of course, the Manchurian operation wouldn't have been possible without transferring battle-hardened troops, fresh from their victory over the Germans, thousands of miles further East.

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    franco
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    Post  franco Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:36 am

    DerWolf wrote:
    You'll note that they've moved formations from the Central and Eastern MD's (i.e. T-80's).

    Russia has lots of tanks in west ans south t-72, t-90. Why to bring t-80 from that far east, I dont get it?

    Don't believe this to be true. The 38th Guards brigade with their T-80BV tanks from the Amur region had gone over to the Trans-Baikal region to have war games with the 36th Guards brigade. This was several hundred kilometers away from their home base. After the maneuvers were completed they were loaded back up on trains to go home. Some silly buggers reported them heading west when in fact they were headed east and back home.

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    Post  GarryB Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:24 am

    Of course the US wants Ukraine to buy some new American stuff... this is a really good chance to test their own equipment against real Russian forces and of course they could care less how many Orcs might die in the process or innocent civilians... it is a chance to test stuff and training against the designated enemy... that is totally risk free for US troops.

    Of course as shown elsewhere when fighting a smart enemy new toys don't have the same effect as they have when wielded by a super power.

    Even if they equipped them with the latest model Abrams and Bradleys their chances are not good... they will have AWACS and JSTARS orbiting around the place listening soaking up signals and procedures like a sponge, but this is not about starting WWIII it is an attempt to trigger Russian action so they can kill the NSII forever.

    The fact that the Ukraine is shelling its own civilians and has been for a significant period of time is ignored, the fact that Russia would attack the Ukraine just to stop them and no as revenge or to take territory is also ignored...

    The question would be how is Putin feeling... does he want to play nice and just hit ORC targets, or will he give very short notice and hit some mercenary force based in the Ukraine... an Iskander attack with cluster munitions hitting a Syrian merc base... how could the west complain about that... of course they will... but who will actually care...

    Step one might just be sink their entire navy and their tank repair plants and ammo storage and any ammo production factories they might have... they shoul easily have those sorts of targets located and enough weapons to hit them... not to mention enough S-400s stationed near the borders to create a no fly zone over most of the Ukraine using batteries in Crimea, Russia and Belarus.

    Artillery in friendly territory could be used against the sources of signals for drones and also suppress Orc artillery too.

    Obviously it would be better if Kiev and carried out the requirements of the Minsk agreement... their military build up was the opposite of that...

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    Post  JohninMK Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:20 am

    GarryB wrote:
    The question would be how is Putin feeling... does he want to play nice and just hit ORC targets, or will he give very short notice and hit some mercenary force based in the Ukraine... an Iskander attack with cluster munitions hitting a Syrian merc base... how could the west complain about that... of course they will... but who will actually care...
    From Russia's diplomatic response to last week's sanctions I'd say pretty pissed off. He went way beyond tit for tat, by banning US NGOs, banning employing locals (diplomats decide on new defence attorney or a secretary/cleaner now), plus the interesting one, back to 1991 no travel beyond 25 miles of Moscow.

    I suspect the days of turning the other cheek are gone. Russia has diligently worked its way back, without significant debt, to, in many significant ways, equality with the debt ridden, reserve currency dependent, US and is demanding to be treated as such.

    The warning has been clearly issued. The Ukies attack and they and anyone stupid enough to be near them gets included.

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    Post  littlerabbit Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:59 pm


    What do you guys think about Putin's speech tomorrow?

    Is it possible Russia will recognize independence of DNR/LNR...or Kremlin has something else in mind? Question

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    Post  miketheterrible Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:02 pm

    littlerabbit wrote:
    What do you guys think about Putin's speech tomorrow?

    Is it possible Russia will recognize independence of DNR/LNR...or Kremlin has something else in mind? Question

    Russia has a history of not announcing such a thing till they are near defeated and Russian forces are forced to move in - Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Karabakh and others I don't know top of head.

    I'm assuming it's more of an update on what's going on and what the responses are

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:43 pm

    littlerabbit wrote:
    What do you guys think about Putin's speech tomorrow?

    Is it possible Russia will recognize independence of DNR/LNR...or Kremlin has something else in mind? Question

    I expect more of the same, he wants peace and for the Minsk agreement to be followed. You know that stuff.
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    Post  mavaff Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:45 pm

    Guys what do you think of this map? Can they really go so deep?

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 28 Media%2FEzaEhz1XMAEoTfX

    https://nitter.fdn.fr/pic/media%2FEzaEhz1XMAEoTfX.jpg%3Fname%3Dorig

    Even OP says it's likely very optimistic. Also, interesting thread on tomorrow speech by Putin (thread is in German).

    Full thread:
    https://nitter.fdn.fr/NikGerassimow/status/1384450903642628103#m

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    Post  gbu48098 Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:49 pm

    mavaff wrote:Guys what do you think of this map? Can they really go so deep?

    Yes they can, that drone is very capable and they are not crossing into Russia. Nothing to suspect. That is the purpose of RQ-4

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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:25 pm

    Long as the Drone doesn't enter Russian Airspace it will be able to fly without worry and take all the shots it wants.

    I don't see Russia shooting down Reapers as that would be a massive escalation.

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 28 Empty China v Russia v America: is 2021 the year Orwell’s 1984 comes true?

    Post  Finty Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:06 pm

    From the Grauniad...

    China v Russia v America: is 2021 the year Orwell’s 1984 comes true?



    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/11/china-v-russia-v-america-is-2021-the-year-orwells-1984-comes-true

    Grauniad wrote: may just be coincidence that Russia was piling military pressure on Ukraine last week at the same time as China noisily rattled sabres around Taiwan. Spring, to mangle Tennyson, is when a young man’s fancy turns to war – and that twisted maxim may even apply to ageing thugs such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

    Russia and China are moving into ever closer alliance. While there is no evidence of direct collusion over Ukraine and Taiwan, presidents Putin and Xi are doubtless fully aware of each other’s actions, which have an identical, mutually reinforcing effect: putting the wind up Joe Biden’s untested US administration.

    What’s now unfolding could be portrayed as the ultimate fulfilment of George Orwell’s nightmarish vision, in his dystopian novel, Nineteen Eighty-Four, of a world divided geographically, politically and militarily into three rival super-states: Oceania (North America plus Britain), Eurasia (Russia and Europe), and Eastasia (China).

    Publication of Orwell’s book in 1949 coincided with the formation of the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) and the emergence of Joseph Stalin’s Soviet Union as a nuclear-armed power. It also saw the proclamation of the People’s Republic of China by Mao Zedong. Yet these were early days.

    Orwell’s prediction of an endless, three-way global confrontation proved premature. China needed time to develop. The Soviet Union eventually imploded. The US, declaring a unipolar moment, claimed victory. Yet today, by some measures, Orwell’s tripartite world is finally coming into being. 2021 is the new 1984.

    If China and Russia are presently ganging up on the US and its satraps, that’s par for the course in a world where no one superpower is allowed to dominate the other two. In 1972, Richard Nixon sought China’s help against the Soviets. Maybe the US and Russia will one day combine against Beijing. As Meat Loaf sings it, two out of three ain’t bad.

    This is where truly global danger lies – in the hazy gap between words and deeds in the intensifying trilateral struggle between superpowers
    Advocates of a multipolar world will say this is too simplistic, and that the strategic balance is more subtle and complex. Tell that to people in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region and occupied Crimea, who face a deeply unsubtle Russian military build-up along the “line of contact”.

    The consensus among analysts is that Putin is not about to invade. So what is he up to? Apologists suggest he was provoked by a Ukrainian decree last month declaring the re-taking of Crimea, seized by Russia in 2014, to be an official government objective – and by renewed talk of Ukraine joining Nato.

    A more banal explanation is that Moscow is pressurising Kiev to break the stalemate in the so-called Minsk peace process – after the latest Donbas ceasefire collapsed. Putin enjoyed a big, but fleeting, ratings boost after Crimea’s annexation. Last month, he used a lavish televised rally marking its seventh anniversary to recapture lost popularity.

    It seems he failed. Russians are preoccupied with the coronavirus pandemic (and the incompetent official response), falling incomes, and a worsening socio-economic outlook. More than ever, Putin’s Soviet empire restoration project appears irrelevant, especially to younger people.

    Putin is under fire at home from supporters of the much-persecuted opposition activist, Alexei Navalny, and over corruption allegations. Only 32% of Russians trust their president, according to a recent Levada Center poll. Seen this way, the Ukraine build-up looks like a calculated distraction for domestic political purposes.

    Yet Putin may also be deliberately testing US and European resolve. He will not have forgotten how George W Bush pledged undying support to Georgia’s newly democratic government in 2005, then ducked out when war erupted with Russia in 2008.

    As analyst Ted Galen Carpenter noted last week, Biden’s White House has likewise affirmed “unwavering US support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea”. This looks, at best, like a hostage to fortune, and at worst, a cruel deception.

    “The parallels between Washington’s excessive encouragement of Ukraine and Bush’s blunder with respect to Georgia are eerie and alarming,” Carpenter wrote. The US and Nato would no more go to war with Russia over eastern Ukraine than they would to save South Ossetia, he suggested. And if they did, well, that’s world war three right there.

    This is where truly global danger lies – in the hazy gap between words and deeds in the intensifying trilateral struggle between superpowers. Will Putin, goaded by Biden’s “killer” insult and numerous intractable disputes, call the US president’s bluff? On the other side of the world, will Xi?

    China’s surly leader looks like a man prone to brooding. He has suffered many slights at the hands of the west, including accusations of genocide in Xinjiang, brutality in Hong Kong, and aggression in the seas around China. What drives him now as his forces besiege Taiwan?

    One answer is that Xi may also hope to divert attention from domestic problems. Maybe he faces unseen challenges within China’s communist party. More probably, he would like to mark July’s centenary of the founding of the CCP by finally conquering what was the last redoubt of Chiang Kai-shek’s nationalists.

    Taiwan reunification would seal Xi’s legacy. Ever closer personal, strategic and military ties with Putin’s Russia mean that he would face no pushback from that quarter, and some applause. The Taiwanese vow to fight, but cannot prevail alone. Only the Americans really stand in his way.

    Is Xi simply trolling the Washington proles? Or will he defy them and make a move on Taiwan soon? The Orwellian nightmare for Biden and the west would be a simultaneous Russian invasion of Ukraine and a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

    Oceania’s choice: a war on two fronts, or humiliation all round. Welcome to Winston’s world.
    Hole
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 28 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

    Post  Hole Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:12 pm

    Maybe if Biden and the west would stop meddling in other countries affairs the "nightmare" would end.

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    Rodion_Romanovic
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 28 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:51 pm

    From the telegram channel of the Zaporozhe nuclear powerplant, commenting on the words of zelenski that said that if Ukraine had nuclear weapon Russia would be have differently...

    They are completely crazy... They are openly talking of having a new Chernobyl....


    https://t.me/zaes_energoatom/498

    На самом деле, такое оружие у нас есть. Если Россия попробует помешать Украине навести конституционный порядок на Донбассе и в Крыму, и попытается нас уничтожить - они заплатят высокую цену! Мы можем загрузить все 13 реакторов ВВЭР-1000 ядерным топливом Westinghouse, и у нас есть герои, у которых не дрогнет рука выполнить последний приказ.
    Украина не сдастся! Слава Украине.

    Machine translation
    In fact, we have such a weapon.  If Russia tries to prevent Ukraine from establishing constitutional order in Donbass and Crimea, and tries to destroy us, they will pay a high price!  We can load all 13 VVER-1000 reactors with Westinghouse nuclear fuel, and we have heroes who will not shake hands with the last order.
    Ukraine will not surrender!  Glory to Ukraine.

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    miketheterrible
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 28 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

    Post  miketheterrible Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:08 pm

    Let them melt themselves down.

    At this point, they need to go. Any disaster they cause will be of their own. Yes, Russia may have to try and contain any radiation leak but so be it.

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    LMFS
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 28 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

    Post  LMFS Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:19 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:From the telegram channel of the Zaporozhe nuclear powerplant, commenting on the words of zelenski that said that if Ukraine had nuclear weapon Russia would be have differently...

    They are completely crazy... They are openly talking of having a new Chernobyl....


    https://t.me/zaes_energoatom/498

    На самом деле, такое оружие у нас есть. Если Россия попробует помешать Украине навести конституционный порядок на Донбассе и в Крыму, и попытается нас уничтожить - они заплатят высокую цену! Мы можем загрузить все 13 реакторов ВВЭР-1000 ядерным топливом Westinghouse, и у нас есть герои, у которых не дрогнет рука выполнить последний приказ.
    Украина не сдастся! Слава Украине.

    Machine translation
    In fact, we have such a weapon.  If Russia tries to prevent Ukraine from establishing constitutional order in Donbass and Crimea, and tries to destroy us, they will pay a high price!  We can load all 13 VVER-1000 reactors with Westinghouse nuclear fuel, and we have heroes who will not shake hands with the last order.
    Ukraine will not surrender!  Glory to Ukraine.

    Predicted here... it is easy once you think of the biggest shit you can come up with, Ukrainians never disappoint censored

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    Karl Haushofer


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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 28 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

    Post  Karl Haushofer Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:40 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:From the telegram channel of the Zaporozhe nuclear powerplant, commenting on the words of zelenski that said that if Ukraine had nuclear weapon Russia would be have differently...

    They are completely crazy... They are openly talking of having a new Chernobyl....


    https://t.me/zaes_energoatom/498

    На самом деле, такое оружие у нас есть. Если Россия попробует помешать Украине навести конституционный порядок на Донбассе и в Крыму, и попытается нас уничтожить - они заплатят высокую цену! Мы можем загрузить все 13 реакторов ВВЭР-1000 ядерным топливом Westinghouse, и у нас есть герои, у которых не дрогнет рука выполнить последний приказ.
    Украина не сдастся! Слава Украине.

    Machine translation
    In fact, we have such a weapon.  If Russia tries to prevent Ukraine from establishing constitutional order in Donbass and Crimea, and tries to destroy us, they will pay a high price!  We can load all 13 VVER-1000 reactors with Westinghouse nuclear fuel, and we have heroes who will not shake hands with the last order.
    Ukraine will not surrender!  Glory to Ukraine.

    This would pollute the whole of Crimea and most of southern Russia.

    Hopefully Russia makes it clear that if any such event happens then Russia will exterminate Kiev and western Ukraine with nuclear weapons, and several major American cities as well.

    America needs to be threatened too since this is a way to make them prevent Ukrainians from committing a Samson option against Russia. Americans would be more than pleased to see Russia and Ukraine destroy each other with North American continent remaining untouched. So Russia should make it clear that this option is not available for Americans. If southern Russia and Ukraine go, then a big part of North American continent will go too.

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