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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Thu Mar 25, 2021 3:24 pm

    Let's ask this question: Will they attack out the blue, or will they attack during a special event which Russia is participating in?

    1.) Suckassvili attacks South Ossetia peacekeepers when everyone was distracted during the Summer Olympics of 2008.

    2.) The Maidan coup happens during the Winter Olympics of 2014.

    ...So maybe they'll attack during the period between the Victory Day Parade (May 9th) and  the Tokyo Summer Olympics 2020(21)? Russia has dubiously been barred from the next Summer Olympics, so I'm thinking they will trying something during the Victory Day parade.

    The testicular fortitude of the Ukrappy's actually trying something on May 9th....maybe they want to experience the results of May 9th, 1945 for themselves? Wink

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    Post  JohninMK Thu Mar 25, 2021 3:26 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:Let's ask this question: Will they attack out the blue, or will they attack during a special event which Russia is participating in?

    The testicular fortitude of the Ukrappy's actually trying something on May 9th....maybe they want to experience the results of May 9th, 1945 for themselves? Wink

    Will it be dry enough by then?
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    Post  kvs Thu Mar 25, 2021 4:23 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:Let's ask this question: Will they attack out the blue, or will they attack during a special event which Russia is participating in?

    1.) Suckassvili attacks South Ossetia peacekeepers when everyone was distracted during the Summer Olympics of 2008.

    2.) The Maidan coup happens during the Winter Olympics of 2014.

    ...So maybe they'll attack during the period between the Victory Day Parade (May 9th) and  the Tokyo Summer Olympics 2020(21)? Russia has dubiously been barred from the next Summer Olympics, so I'm thinking they will trying something during the Victory Day parade.

    The testicular fortitude of the Ukrappy's actually trying something on May 9th....maybe they want to experience the results of May 9th, 1945 for themselves? Wink

    The Banderite nazi Ukrs for sure would make a point of defecating on May 9th "the commie holiday".

    Russia should pull an Israel on Banderastan. Use air attacks to degrade their punitive paramilitary forces. If it's OK for Israel to bomb every neighbour in the name
    of security, then Russia can use the same argument.

    I do not think acting properly buys Russia much. To its demented enemies, it makes Russia look weak. Russia has to assert that it is saving Donbass
    civilians from Kiev regime terror shelling and the western propaganda machine can screech all it wants. The UN has already let the NATzO and the USA
    use humanitarian "law" as a pretext to attack countries around the world. So it cannot start pulling the violation of international norms card.

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    Post  kvs Thu Mar 25, 2021 5:01 pm



    The Ukr T-64s produced in Kharkov from the more recent generations have clear construction problems.   The manner in which
    these tanks were destroyed in 2014 is inconsistent with the damage taken by T-64s built during the Soviet period.   The primary
    damage mode should involve the turret popping off.   But you see catastrophic failure in the tank hull.   This indicates that
    both the metal and its welding are not conforming to design specifications.  

    The T-64 is supposed to have 7 cm side plates, in many of the catastrophically destroyed units the thickness is 3 cm and
    it is clear that the steel is inferior in characteristics (there is a whole spectrum of steel grades).

    I recall seeing one video showing that the interleaved composite armour in the frontal section of one of these T-64s was not
    actually finished.  There were missing sheets between the metal layers.   This made the whole structure worthless.

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    Post  magnumcromagnon Thu Mar 25, 2021 5:37 pm

    kvs wrote:

    The Ukr T-64s produced in Kharkov from the more recent generations have clear construction problems.   The manner in which
    these tanks were destroyed in 2014 is inconsistent with the damage taken by T-64s built during the Soviet period.   The primary
    damage mode should involve the turret popping off.   But you see catastrophic failure in the tank hull.   This indicates that
    both the metal and its welding are not conforming to design specifications.  

    The T-64 is supposed to have 7 cm side plates, in many of the catastrophically destroyed units the thickness is 3 cm and
    it is clear that the steel is inferior in characteristics (there is a whole spectrum of steel grades).

    I recall seeing one video showing that the interleaved composite armour in the frontal section of one of these T-64s was not
    actually finished.  There were missing sheets between the metal layers.   This made the whole structure worthless.

    The welding on their notorious BTR-4's should be a clear indication of what's going on in their armor industry. From my understanding BTR-4's have been rejected by every military who foolishly bought them (Nigeria, Iraq, Indonesia), even the Ukrappy's have been rejecting them.

    The T-84 Oplots have been consistently rejected by all parties as well. You can see a clear pattern of mediocrity in their armor industry.

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    Post  kvs Thu Mar 25, 2021 6:36 pm

    Banderastan is riven with corruption. They are also detached from reality and tried to fob off their ridiculous products onto
    various countries. The T-64s in the Donbass are forensic proof that they have non-functional industrial production. Faking
    up a tank is not production. We are not dealing with toys.

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    Post  VARGR198 Thu Mar 25, 2021 6:47 pm

    kvs wrote:Banderastan is riven with corruption.   They are also detached from reality and tried to fob off their ridiculous products onto
    various countries.   The T-64s in the Donbass are forensic proof that they have non-functional industrial production.   Faking
    up a tank is not production.   We are not dealing with toys.


    I don't currently have a link, but I do remember in 2016 a country (Croatia) that was getting Ukraine to refit and upgrade its MIG-21s as well as sell them several more planes. When returned they found the planes to be completely unusable with several airframes coming from an unknown source (and as such none were airworthy)

    Edit: Found the article https://www.rt.com/news/337010-ukraine-fake-jets-croatia/

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    Post  lyle6 Thu Mar 25, 2021 7:06 pm

    kvs wrote:
    The Ukr T-64s produced in Kharkov from the more recent generations have clear construction problems.   The manner in which
    these tanks were destroyed in 2014 is inconsistent with the damage taken by T-64s built during the Soviet period.   The primary
    damage mode should involve the turret popping off.   But you see catastrophic failure in the tank hull.   This indicates that
    both the metal and its welding are not conforming to design specifications.  

    The T-64 is supposed to have 7 cm side plates, in many of the catastrophically destroyed units the thickness is 3 cm and
    it is clear that the steel is inferior in characteristics (there is a whole spectrum of steel grades).

    I recall seeing one video showing that the interleaved composite armour in the frontal section of one of these T-64s was not
    actually finished.  There were missing sheets between the metal layers.   This made the whole structure worthless.

    Probably doesn't help that the ammunition are of 80s vintage at best, and considering the state of ammo dumps in the FSU it isn't surprising if the rounds are prone to exploding with so much as a love tap. At least Russia has factories working to create new shells when Ukraine can't even make their own small arms ammo.

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    Post  kvs Thu Mar 25, 2021 7:47 pm

    The tank damage involves detonation of all of its shells resulting in the ejection of the turret. The damage evident in the later Ukr T-64s
    in the full cook-off scenario is all about substandard production and not munitions age.

    Munitions age would manifest as failures to properly detonate or detonate on handling. This makes no difference to the fact that 3 cm
    boiler sheet metal is being substituted for 7 cm armour steel.

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    Post  Hole Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:54 pm

    It still looks better then the turkish Leo2´s hit by russian ATGM´s. Laughing

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    Post  medo Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:39 pm

    lyle6 wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    The Ukr T-64s produced in Kharkov from the more recent generations have clear construction problems.   The manner in which
    these tanks were destroyed in 2014 is inconsistent with the damage taken by T-64s built during the Soviet period.   The primary
    damage mode should involve the turret popping off.   But you see catastrophic failure in the tank hull.   This indicates that
    both the metal and its welding are not conforming to design specifications.  

    The T-64 is supposed to have 7 cm side plates, in many of the catastrophically destroyed units the thickness is 3 cm and
    it is clear that the steel is inferior in characteristics (there is a whole spectrum of steel grades).

    I recall seeing one video showing that the interleaved composite armour in the frontal section of one of these T-64s was not
    actually finished.  There were missing sheets between the metal layers.   This made the whole structure worthless.

    Probably doesn't help that the ammunition are of 80s vintage at best, and considering the state of ammo dumps in the FSU it isn't surprising if the rounds are prone to exploding with so much as a love tap. At least Russia has factories working to create new shells when Ukraine can't even make their own small arms ammo.

    Ukrainian tanks have older 125 mm gun barrels, which could not use modern ammunition. Too powerfull for their guns. It's no wonder, that LDNR more prefer T-72 tanks. They could get from Russia more modern guns with more modern ammuniton.

    Ukrainian ammunition factories are on the territories of LNR and DNR and they produce ammo for LDNR army.
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    Post  littlerabbit Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:47 pm

    I was thinking about this situation around DNR/LNR...is it possible that ukrops(NATO) actually can't concentrate their troops too fast, so they need a lot more time to finish it? Maybe they are using a mud season to make sure DNR/LNR can't do anything to interrupt the forward move of their echelons?  Question  

    Maybe they want to tire out DNR/LNR troops...do some false troop concentrations, to deceive...? Neutral

    By the way, they actually did few empty threats in past, so they might hope defenders/Russia won't take their new threats too serious...or whatever.

    These are times when I would like to be a fly in the Kiev's military headquarters. What a Face

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    Post  LMFS Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:49 pm

    Zelensky, war and the propaganda trap

    Rostislav Ishchenko

    Just recently, not more than six months ago, no adequate expert would have called the danger of Ukraine intensifying military operations in the Donbas significant

    Today, few people doubt that Kiev will provoke a war. Disputes are only about whether this will happen in the spring or later, and whether the Donbass can be considered the only place of possible provocation, or whether Crimea, Transdniestria, the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, as well as the section of the Ukrainian-Russian border in the Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv regions should also be considered as such.

    What has happened to change the assessment of the prospects for the transition of the Ukrainian crisis to a hot phase?

    First, it should be borne in mind that the United States was engaged in provoking a conflict with Russia and/or China. Washington came to the conclusion that within three to five years (that is, by the end of the current us President's reign) America will lose any hope of success in the event of a direct military conflict, both with Beijing and Moscow (not to mention the high probability of their interaction). According to its own experts, the United States has already lost the financial and economic competition. This view is confirmed by the fact that over the past five years, Washington has not even tried to play by the rules in the financial and economic field, forcing its still allies to engage in economic conflicts with Moscow and Beijing. Having lost the advantage (albeit conditional) of force, the United States loses the last argument, after which its defeat goes from a state of high probability to a state of inevitability.

    America sees a way out in drawing Russia and / or China into a full-scale conflict with the participation of American allies, while the United States itself will try to refrain from participating in active hostilities at the first stage, providing moral and technical support to the allies. Washington is considering two possible scenarios. In the first case, the fighting takes a prolonged character, undermining the potential of Russia and China and allowing America to throw its capabilities (not necessarily entering the war, but threatening to use force) into the balance at the final stage and turn the political situation in the world in its favor. Roughly speaking, the United States is not averse to repeating the focus of the First and Second world wars, in which everyone lost except America.

    In the second scenario, America's allies will be defeated by Moscow and Beijing relatively quickly and without much strain, but the result should be a stalemate in which the winners destroy the very markets that should give them an economic advantage over the United States. In other words, the us administration believes that the war will allow Washington to draw the current global crisis in the worst case, while preserving the potential for the next round of struggle for hegemony.

    To implement this strategy, the United States needed warmongers, because it is clear that neither France nor Germany nor Japan nor Australia will not attack Russia or China. It is necessary to create conditions in which they would not be able to avoid participating in military operations because of their fulfillment of allied obligations, as well as because a military conflict would affect their own interests.

    The United States is trying to use South Korea (by provoking a conflict with the DPRK), Taiwan, as well as Vietnam and the Philippines (which have unresolved disputes over sovereignty over groups of Islands in the South China sea) as arsonists against China.

    Arsonists of the Russian border should serve as the Baltic States and Poland, trying to blow up Belarus, Georgia, where the Americans are trying to return to power the opposition, which considers its leaderSaakashvili. It is possible to use the Armenian-Azerbaijani contradictions to ignite a major war in Transcaucasia, but after the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh, this option has become much harder to implement. Attempts to shake up Central Asia continue, but for its full use, the United States needs to provide its rear from Afghanistan, and in negotiations with the Taliban, Moscow is still outplaying Washington, although not very much.

    As you can see, Ukraine is a key link in this strategy, providing a link between the Belarusian and Caucasian theaters of military operations (TVD). In addition, it is easier for Kiev to transfer frozen conflicts to the hot stage. The easiest way to do this is in the Donbas. Finally, the EU is already involved in the Ukraine crisis, so it will be harder for Paris and Berlin to avoid being drawn into a conflict with Russia over Ukraine. In addition, we can expect active actions, at least in Western Ukraine, by Poland, which is a member of the EU and NATO and whose problems will be even more difficult to ignore. In addition to Poland, there is a chance to connect the Baltic States to the crisis (for the deployment of American troops, which the Balts, together with the poles, so persistently sought, you must pay, if not with money, then with participation in adventures).

    There is hope that Georgia will actively support the anti-Russian bloc politically (it is unlikely to decide on military actions by Tbilisi after 2008), and also that Kazakhstan will be sensitive to a full-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as it will try the situation on itself. Northwest Kazakhstan is a former Cossack land, and when Putin spoke of Russia's" gifts " to the fledgling republics, he clearly wasn't just referring to Ukraine.

    Secondly, the Ukrainian leadership is in an extremely difficult situation. Zelensky was unable to ensure the continuation of lending from the IMF, and there is nothing to plug the hole in a third of the budget. Moreover, as a result of the failed struggle of the Ukrainian authorities with the coronavirus pandemic, this hole risks growing to 2/3 of the budget — business is ruined, the tax base is reduced, the departure of guest workers to earn money abroad has sharply decreased, which means that the inflow of currency has also decreased. The unpopular government is trying to strengthen its position by moving to an open dictatorship. Dictatorial methods of government and terror against the opposition are motivated by the "war with Russia". Oppositionists are massively declared "agents of the Kremlin" and accused of high treason.

    As a result, the positions of right-wing radicals, who have always advocated open war with Russia, have strengthened. The most stupid of them believed (some still believe) that Ukraine could win such a war.

    Most people believe that the West will definitely stand up for Kiev if war is officially declared on Moscow, and help it win the conflict (it will win the war for Ukraine). The only problem is that it is necessary to demonstrate unprovoked aggression on the part of Russia.

    To do this, since the beginning of the year, Kiev has switched to the standard tactic of increasing shelling of the Donbass and organizing clashes on the demarcation line. The bet was that sooner or later the defenders of Donbass would lose their nerve and respond so vividly that it could be passed off as a Russian offensive.

    At the same time, information and propaganda pumping of Ukrainian society began. The Kiev authorities managed to get 42 percent of the population to support a military solution to the Donbass crisis. Despite the fact that only 25% are against it. Moreover, 37.4% of Ukrainian citizens also support the forcible return of Crimea. Against only 27%. Kiev's information and political preparations for war are almost complete.
    Third, there were a number of events that were unpleasant for Ukraine and the West, but hardly capable of canceling the war:

    1. Russia pointed out to France and Germany the unwillingness and inability of Kiev to implement the Minsk agreements and invited them to ensure a more constructive position of their wards. Paris and Berlin have tacitly acknowledged their inability to change Kiev's position.

    2. the Donbass, clearly with the consent of Moscow, declared its claims to statehood within the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

    3. the authorities of Donetsk and Luhansk gave the command to the corps of the republics not just to start responding to attacks, but to open fire on Ukrainian positions "in advance". Moscow, Paris and Berlin remained silent on this issue.

    Thus, Kiev was caught in its own trap. Ukrainian volunteers have begun to regularly report losses in killed and wounded from " shrapnel and explosive wounds." At the same time, we are talking about mine explosions in exceptional cases, mainly the armed forces of Ukraine suffer losses from the actions of artillery of the republics. So far, Kiev has not particularly focused on this, since, as mentioned above, Russia has managed to get silence from Paris and Berlin on the Ukrainian issue.

    But, first of all, the United States will obviously try to push its allies as much as possible to respond to anti-Russian statements at the upcoming NATO summit. Secondly, Kiev cannot ignore the current situation for a long time. The armed forces of Ukraine are used to the fact that they shoot at the Donbass almost with impunity. The current state of Affairs is extremely unnerving for the personnel of units coming under fire from the Republican artillery. It should be understood that most of the military personnel are the same guest workers who only decided that trench alcoholism and entertainment in the form of shelling residential areas are more interesting than picking strawberries in Poland. They signed a contract with the armed forces of Ukraine in order to kill for money (if they are lucky, then Rob), and not at all to die.

    Sitting in the trenches under fire completely decomposes the Ukrainian army, which is already far from the heights of morale. If it is not sent on the offensive in time, it can break into an independent spontaneous retreat, turning into a flight. In addition, the Nazis and other radical citizens will not understand the government if it takes a passive position.

    Thus, the overall diplomatic, military, political, financial, and economic situation imperiously requires the Kiev authorities to step up military operations in the Donbas. By the way, the Americans deeply do not care whether Ukraine will last for any long time or it will be torn to shreds instantly. They believe that they will benefit from any development of events. Only the personal indecision of Zelensky and some of his advisers keeps Kiev from quickly defrosting the conflict in the Donbass. But cowardice is a bad adviser. Today Zelensky is more afraid of war, and tomorrow he will be more afraid of the Nazis setting fire to his Office door.

    In addition, official Kiev still lives in a regime of provocations, and not only on the contact line in the Donbass, but also on the border with the Crimea, where provocative exercises are held. Provocation is a double-edged weapon. In the course of whipping up military hysteria, events easily get out of control and begin to develop according to their own (not calculated by provocateurs) algorithm. The higher the tension, the greater the risk of an accidental collision igniting a large fire.

    That is why today most observers say that there is a high risk of Ukraine launching full-scale military operations. As she wrote about the beginning of the First world warBarbara Tuckman in "August guns", " no one wanted war. War was inevitable."

    After all, it has long been clear to everyone that the Ukrainian crisis cannot be resolved peacefully. Ukraine is not ready for this. Therefore, the question of war is only a matter of choosing the place and time of the parties concerned.

    https://ukraina.ru/opinion/20210325/1030946222.html

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    Post  kvs Fri Mar 26, 2021 12:03 am

    First, it should be borne in mind that the United States was engaged in provoking a conflict with Russia and/or China. Washington came to the conclusion that within three to five years (that is, by the end of the current us President's reign) America will lose any hope of success in the event of a direct military conflict, both with Beijing and Moscow (not to mention the high probability of their interaction). According to its own experts, the United States has already lost the financial and economic competition. This view is confirmed by the fact that over the past five years, Washington has not even tried to play by the rules in the financial and economic field, forcing its still allies to engage in economic conflicts with Moscow and Beijing. Having lost the advantage (albeit conditional) of force, the United States loses the last argument, after which its defeat goes from a state of high probability to a state of inevitability.

    This is central to the whole story. Just as the USSR could crank up its war potential by 40% after the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact before the
    onset of the war, the current situation sees very rapid capacity growth. Five years is not some 1% per year change. We are talking integer factors
    of growth likely in the range of 2-4. At the same time, the US military potential is shrinking thanks to the growing idiocracy and the rampant corruption.
    The F-35 program is a prime example of a total fail.

    But these US deciders are wrong already. Russia today could whoop their asses. If they think they can fight a war against Russia (not even including China),
    then they are terminally deluded.

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    Post  LMFS Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:02 pm

    It is easy for the West to know they must act, the hard part is having the right timing. And there they have failed, in part because of their arrogance and incompetence, but also and crucially because Russia has been preparing for this moment for twenty years and developed the right kind of weapons and the military capable of using them quietly and without raising suspicions. Now there is simply no way a conventional NATO attack against Russian territory may succeed because the power balance and escalation control is already solidly in Russia's favour and improving by the hour, while US and the West are melting before our eyes.

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    Post  miketheterrible Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:17 pm

    Well, also take into account that NATO forces are kind of lacking Besides US and the logistics is all in Germany. Would be easy to notice their movements. They also lack the ability to move quick.

    In even Russia's worst times, they managed to move units real quick into combat and they were very effective for being poorly equipped and not nearly as prepared as they are now (2008. Back then, there wasn't much training Besides basic unlike how they do war games which is like every couple of months).
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    Post  littlerabbit Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:28 pm

    President Volodymyr Zelensky has approved the Military Security Strategy of Ukraine.
    The President signed relevant decree No.121/2021, which puts into effect the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine as of March 25, 2021 "On the Military Security Strategy of Ukraine,” Ukrinform reports with reference to the president’s press service.

    The document provides for the introduction of a comprehensive approach to the defense of Ukraine in the face of a military threat to national security associated with the use of hybrid methods.

    "Ukraine's comprehensive defense corresponds to the sovereign inalienable right of every state to self-defense against aggression enshrined in the UN Charter and is not aimed at achieving military parity with the Russian Federation, which would lead to excessive militarization of the state. It provides for maintaining the balance and combination of military and non-military means to ensure the military security of Ukraine,” reads the document.

    The strategy defines the goals, priorities and objectives of state policy in the military, defense and military construction. The document is aimed at protecting national interests from military threats, repelling and deterring armed aggression against Ukraine, preventing or restraining the enemy from full-scale use of military force against Ukraine, termination of the temporary occupation by the Russian Federation of part of the territory of Ukraine, protection of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine primarily through the implementation of international legal, political and diplomatic, security, humanitarian and economic measures.
    They are definitely going for a war option, no doubt about that. pirat

    Here is the link:

    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/3215642-zelensky-approves-military-security-strategy.html
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:24 pm

    littlerabbit wrote:
    They are definitely going for a war option, no doubt about that. pirat


    termination of the temporary occupation by the Russian Federation of part of the territory of Ukraine, protection of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine primarily through the implementation of international legal, political and diplomatic, security, humanitarian and economic measures.


    They may well do but that doesn't say that.

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    Post  LMFS Fri Mar 26, 2021 4:24 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:Well, also take into account that NATO forces are kind of lacking Besides US and the logistics is all in Germany. Would be easy to notice their movements.  They also lack the ability to move quick.

    In even Russia's worst times, they managed to move units real quick into combat and they were very effective for being poorly equipped and not nearly as prepared as they are now (2008. Back then, there wasn't much training Besides basic unlike how they do war games which is like every couple of months).

    NATO cannot get even remotely close to matching RF mobilization capability. They would need to spend months airlifting and moving by sea with all their resources to be considered a threat by Russia. That is the ugly reality of being the other side of the ocean while trying to face a continental superpower like Russia, they stand no chance...

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    Post  Backman Fri Mar 26, 2021 5:40 pm

    Anatoly Karlin upped his chances of war in Donbass to "over 50%" for this summer. He is usually a little more conservative than the Saker.
    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Fri Mar 26, 2021 7:39 pm

    LMFS wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Well, also take into account that NATO forces are kind of lacking Besides US and the logistics is all in Germany. Would be easy to notice their movements.  They also lack the ability to move quick.

    In even Russia's worst times, they managed to move units real quick into combat and they were very effective for being poorly equipped and not nearly as prepared as they are now (2008. Back then, there wasn't much training Besides basic unlike how they do war games which is like every couple of months).

    NATO cannot get even remotely close to matching RF mobilization capability. They would need to spend months airlifting and moving by sea with all their resources to be considered a threat by Russia. That is the ugly reality of being the other side of the ocean while trying to face a continental superpower like Russia, they stand no chance...
    the chances of USA beating Russian army in Ukraine, Georgia or the Baltic are better than the chances of Russia beating USA in Mexico or Canada, but still close to zero.

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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:37 pm

    Backman wrote:Anatoly Karlin upped his chances of war in Donbass to "over 50%" for this summer. He is usually a little more conservative than the Saker.

    According to Saker war in Donbass was starting in 5 days for the past 5 years

    Dude is completely delusional, I wouldn't pay any attention to crap he drops


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    Post  kvs Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:49 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
    LMFS wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Well, also take into account that NATO forces are kind of lacking Besides US and the logistics is all in Germany. Would be easy to notice their movements.  They also lack the ability to move quick.

    In even Russia's worst times, they managed to move units real quick into combat and they were very effective for being poorly equipped and not nearly as prepared as they are now (2008. Back then, there wasn't much training Besides basic unlike how they do war games which is like every couple of months).

    NATO cannot get even remotely close to matching RF mobilization capability. They would need to spend months airlifting and moving by sea with all their resources to be considered a threat by Russia. That is the ugly reality of being the other side of the ocean while trying to face a continental superpower like Russia, they stand no chance...
    the chances of USA beating Russian army in Ukraine, Georgia or the Baltic are better than the chances of Russia beating USA in Mexico or Canada, but still close to zero.

    The difference is that Russia has no ambitions to fight the US army in Mexico and Canada but the same cannot be said for the USA which clearly
    has military ambitions against Russia.

    And Crimea is the lamest pretext in history. If the US foreign policy was not malicious, it would not have willy nilly recognized the annexation of Crimea
    by Ukraine in 1991. Crimea was not part of Ukraine after the 1990 referendum. So it simply being given over to Ukraine is total BS. Maybe I should
    be given the property of all my neighbours. After all, I live near them.

    BTW, there is no "international law" of the common law species that gives some sort of "precedent" justification. We can start with the case of Kosovo.





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    Post  Hole Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:01 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
    LMFS wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Well, also take into account that NATO forces are kind of lacking Besides US and the logistics is all in Germany. Would be easy to notice their movements.  They also lack the ability to move quick.

    In even Russia's worst times, they managed to move units real quick into combat and they were very effective for being poorly equipped and not nearly as prepared as they are now (2008. Back then, there wasn't much training Besides basic unlike how they do war games which is like every couple of months).

    NATO cannot get even remotely close to matching RF mobilization capability. They would need to spend months airlifting and moving by sea with all their resources to be considered a threat by Russia. That is the ugly reality of being the other side of the ocean while trying to face a continental superpower like Russia, they stand no chance...
    the chances of USA beating Russian army in Ukraine, Georgia or the Baltic are better than the chances of Russia beating USA in Mexico or Canada, but still close to zero.

    If Russia could bring in 4 to 5 Brigades the chances would be pretty good for a victory because most of the american stuff is in Europe, Asia and the ME. Very Happy

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    Post  LMFS Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:21 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:According to Saker war in Donbass was starting in 5 days for the past 5 years

    Dude is completely delusional, I wouldn't pay any attention to crap he drops

    I agree the topic sounds quite tired by now, but we all know there is no other way out for Ukraine than a further military confrontation. When it will happen is difficult to say.

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