Zelensky, war and the propaganda trap
Just recently, not more than six months ago, no adequate expert would have called the danger of Ukraine intensifying military operations in the Donbas significant
Today, few people doubt that Kiev will provoke a war. Disputes are only about whether this will happen in the spring or later, and whether the Donbass can be considered the only place of possible provocation, or whether Crimea, Transdniestria, the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, as well as the section of the Ukrainian-Russian border in the Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv regions should also be considered as such.
What has happened to change the assessment of the prospects for the transition of the Ukrainian crisis to a hot phase?
First, it should be borne in mind that the United States was engaged in provoking a conflict with Russia and/or China. Washington came to the conclusion that within three to five years (that is, by the end of the current us President's reign) America will lose any hope of success in the event of a direct military conflict, both with Beijing and Moscow (not to mention the high probability of their interaction). According to its own experts, the United States has already lost the financial and economic competition. This view is confirmed by the fact that over the past five years, Washington has not even tried to play by the rules in the financial and economic field, forcing its still allies to engage in economic conflicts with Moscow and Beijing. Having lost the advantage (albeit conditional) of force, the United States loses the last argument, after which its defeat goes from a state of high probability to a state of inevitability.
America sees a way out in drawing Russia and / or China into a full-scale conflict with the participation of American allies, while the United States itself will try to refrain from participating in active hostilities at the first stage, providing moral and technical support to the allies. Washington is considering two possible scenarios. In the first case, the fighting takes a prolonged character, undermining the potential of Russia and China and allowing America to throw its capabilities (not necessarily entering the war, but threatening to use force) into the balance at the final stage and turn the political situation in the world in its favor. Roughly speaking, the United States is not averse to repeating the focus of the First and Second world wars, in which everyone lost except America.
In the second scenario, America's allies will be defeated by Moscow and Beijing relatively quickly and without much strain, but the result should be a stalemate in which the winners destroy the very markets that should give them an economic advantage over the United States. In other words, the us administration believes that the war will allow Washington to draw the current global crisis in the worst case, while preserving the potential for the next round of struggle for hegemony.
To implement this strategy, the United States needed warmongers, because it is clear that neither France nor Germany nor Japan nor Australia will not attack Russia or China. It is necessary to create conditions in which they would not be able to avoid participating in military operations because of their fulfillment of allied obligations, as well as because a military conflict would affect their own interests.
The United States is trying to use South Korea (by provoking a conflict with the DPRK), Taiwan, as well as Vietnam and the Philippines (which have unresolved disputes over sovereignty over groups of Islands in the South China sea) as arsonists against China.
Arsonists of the Russian border should serve as the Baltic States and Poland, trying to blow up Belarus, Georgia, where the Americans are trying to return to power the opposition, which considers its leaderSaakashvili. It is possible to use the Armenian-Azerbaijani contradictions to ignite a major war in Transcaucasia, but after the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh, this option has become much harder to implement. Attempts to shake up Central Asia continue, but for its full use, the United States needs to provide its rear from Afghanistan, and in negotiations with the Taliban, Moscow is still outplaying Washington, although not very much.
As you can see, Ukraine is a key link in this strategy, providing a link between the Belarusian and Caucasian theaters of military operations (TVD). In addition, it is easier for Kiev to transfer frozen conflicts to the hot stage. The easiest way to do this is in the Donbas. Finally, the EU is already involved in the Ukraine crisis, so it will be harder for Paris and Berlin to avoid being drawn into a conflict with Russia over Ukraine. In addition, we can expect active actions, at least in Western Ukraine, by Poland, which is a member of the EU and NATO and whose problems will be even more difficult to ignore. In addition to Poland, there is a chance to connect the Baltic States to the crisis (for the deployment of American troops, which the Balts, together with the poles, so persistently sought, you must pay, if not with money, then with participation in adventures).
There is hope that Georgia will actively support the anti-Russian bloc politically (it is unlikely to decide on military actions by Tbilisi after 2008), and also that Kazakhstan will be sensitive to a full-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as it will try the situation on itself. Northwest Kazakhstan is a former Cossack land, and when Putin spoke of Russia's" gifts " to the fledgling republics, he clearly wasn't just referring to Ukraine.
Secondly, the Ukrainian leadership is in an extremely difficult situation. Zelensky was unable to ensure the continuation of lending from the IMF, and there is nothing to plug the hole in a third of the budget. Moreover, as a result of the failed struggle of the Ukrainian authorities with the coronavirus pandemic, this hole risks growing to 2/3 of the budget — business is ruined, the tax base is reduced, the departure of guest workers to earn money abroad has sharply decreased, which means that the inflow of currency has also decreased. The unpopular government is trying to strengthen its position by moving to an open dictatorship. Dictatorial methods of government and terror against the opposition are motivated by the "war with Russia". Oppositionists are massively declared "agents of the Kremlin" and accused of high treason.
As a result, the positions of right-wing radicals, who have always advocated open war with Russia, have strengthened. The most stupid of them believed (some still believe) that Ukraine could win such a war.
Most people believe that the West will definitely stand up for Kiev if war is officially declared on Moscow, and help it win the conflict (it will win the war for Ukraine). The only problem is that it is necessary to demonstrate unprovoked aggression on the part of Russia.
To do this, since the beginning of the year, Kiev has switched to the standard tactic of increasing shelling of the Donbass and organizing clashes on the demarcation line. The bet was that sooner or later the defenders of Donbass would lose their nerve and respond so vividly that it could be passed off as a Russian offensive.
At the same time, information and propaganda pumping of Ukrainian society began. The Kiev authorities managed to get 42 percent of the population to support a military solution to the Donbass crisis. Despite the fact that only 25% are against it. Moreover, 37.4% of Ukrainian citizens also support the forcible return of Crimea. Against only 27%. Kiev's information and political preparations for war are almost complete.
Third, there were a number of events that were unpleasant for Ukraine and the West, but hardly capable of canceling the war:
1. Russia pointed out to France and Germany the unwillingness and inability of Kiev to implement the Minsk agreements and invited them to ensure a more constructive position of their wards. Paris and Berlin have tacitly acknowledged their inability to change Kiev's position.
2. the Donbass, clearly with the consent of Moscow, declared its claims to statehood within the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
3. the authorities of Donetsk and Luhansk gave the command to the corps of the republics not just to start responding to attacks, but to open fire on Ukrainian positions "in advance". Moscow, Paris and Berlin remained silent on this issue.
Thus, Kiev was caught in its own trap. Ukrainian volunteers have begun to regularly report losses in killed and wounded from " shrapnel and explosive wounds." At the same time, we are talking about mine explosions in exceptional cases, mainly the armed forces of Ukraine suffer losses from the actions of artillery of the republics. So far, Kiev has not particularly focused on this, since, as mentioned above, Russia has managed to get silence from Paris and Berlin on the Ukrainian issue.
But, first of all, the United States will obviously try to push its allies as much as possible to respond to anti-Russian statements at the upcoming NATO summit. Secondly, Kiev cannot ignore the current situation for a long time. The armed forces of Ukraine are used to the fact that they shoot at the Donbass almost with impunity. The current state of Affairs is extremely unnerving for the personnel of units coming under fire from the Republican artillery. It should be understood that most of the military personnel are the same guest workers who only decided that trench alcoholism and entertainment in the form of shelling residential areas are more interesting than picking strawberries in Poland. They signed a contract with the armed forces of Ukraine in order to kill for money (if they are lucky, then Rob), and not at all to die.
Sitting in the trenches under fire completely decomposes the Ukrainian army, which is already far from the heights of morale. If it is not sent on the offensive in time, it can break into an independent spontaneous retreat, turning into a flight. In addition, the Nazis and other radical citizens will not understand the government if it takes a passive position.
Thus, the overall diplomatic, military, political, financial, and economic situation imperiously requires the Kiev authorities to step up military operations in the Donbas. By the way, the Americans deeply do not care whether Ukraine will last for any long time or it will be torn to shreds instantly. They believe that they will benefit from any development of events. Only the personal indecision of Zelensky and some of his advisers keeps Kiev from quickly defrosting the conflict in the Donbass. But cowardice is a bad adviser. Today Zelensky is more afraid of war, and tomorrow he will be more afraid of the Nazis setting fire to his Office door.
In addition, official Kiev still lives in a regime of provocations, and not only on the contact line in the Donbass, but also on the border with the Crimea, where provocative exercises are held. Provocation is a double-edged weapon. In the course of whipping up military hysteria, events easily get out of control and begin to develop according to their own (not calculated by provocateurs) algorithm. The higher the tension, the greater the risk of an accidental collision igniting a large fire.
That is why today most observers say that there is a high risk of Ukraine launching full-scale military operations. As she wrote about the beginning of the First world warBarbara Tuckman in "August guns", " no one wanted war. War was inevitable."
After all, it has long been clear to everyone that the Ukrainian crisis cannot be resolved peacefully. Ukraine is not ready for this. Therefore, the question of war is only a matter of choosing the place and time of the parties concerned.