The Situation in the Ukraine. #18

Flagship Victory wrote:I can name 5 foreign policy failures on Russia's part.

1. failure to back client Gaddafi in 2011

2. failture to back client Assad in 2011

3. failture to stop Euro Maidan in 2013

4. absorbing Crimea in 2014 therefore made Ukrainians hate Russia forever

5. failure to back NAF resistance in Donbas, Kharkov, Odessa

auslander wrote:I've really got to start taking lessons from OSCE on creative writing. Just read part of their report from 17 July, apparently promulgated in the early evening of that day. Here's an excerpt:

"The level of violence at and around the destroyed “Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”)-controlled airport (12km north-west of Donetsk) continued to decrease as already observed during previous days. Positioned at the “DPR”-controlled central railway station (8km north-west of Donetsk) between 08:00 and 15:22hrs, the SMM heard 20 explosions, out of which 13 were consistent with mortar rounds (82mm and 120mm) incoming, while seven were undetermined, at locations ranging from 1 to 5.6km and from the north-north-east to the west of the SMM’s position. The SMM concluded that this was the lowest number of observed explosions during this week. The rounds were followed by exchanges of small-arms fire, at locations 1-6km west, north-west and north-east of the SMM’s position.[1]  

Positioned at its observation point on the eastern outskirts of Berdianske (government-controlled, 1.5km west of Shyrokyne, 18.5km east of Mariupol), the SMM did not observe any ceasefire violations in the area during the day. The SMM visited Shyrokyne (20km east of Mariupol) and did not observe any ceasefire violations. The SMM noted that crates of small-arms ammunition and rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) seen during its last visit to Shyrokyne on 12 July, were no longer there. The SMM discovered full boxes of anti-personnel mines."

Taras Bulba wrote:ATO in Transcarpathia !?

whir wrote:

Taras Bulba wrote:ATO in Transcarpathia !?

Ivan the Colorado wrote:Really reminiscent of when the National Guard rolled into Kramatorsk a little more than a year ago. Here is hoping that the local Right Sector units there has at least half the balls of the rebels that held  Slavyansk and Kramatorsk too.

Russia Insider wrote:Ukrainian far-right militants are getting ready for more war in Ukraine

Анатолий Чубаченко wrote:"Donbass" in Shirokino kidnapped in separable lined with BMP-2

Подробности wrote:In Avdeevka beat direct-fire 18.07

Ivan the Colorado wrote:[ I asked you earlier but I think it got buried in all the replies in the old thread.

Since you are the closest to all the excitement going on right now and your predictions have been pretty accurate, how do you think the current situation regarding the infighting among the Ukrops and their increased bombing of Donetsk will play out over the next several days?

Oh, and has there been anything different or unusual back on Krim regarding the tense situation in Banderastan?

auslander wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:[ I asked you earlier but I think it got buried in all the replies in the old thread.

Since you are the closest to all the excitement going on right now and your predictions have been pretty accurate, how do you think the current situation regarding the infighting among the Ukrops and their increased bombing of Donetsk will play out over the next several days?

Oh, and has there been anything different or unusual back on Krim regarding the tense situation in Banderastan?

I think the infighting between the ukes is more window dressing than anything else, good theater for EUUS and not much more. As for the fuss in Zakarpatya in my opinion it was nothing more than an attempt to replace one gang with another gang. The RS boys who started it will probably never be found until long after the fuss is forgotten. The air attack yesterday was in all probability an attack against an unrelated gang of smugglers in the forests, again probably nothing more than good PR for the masses.

As for the east, Nuland was just in Kiev visiting her serfs and gave them their orders. The bombardments will continue to increase until and if the ukes attack. The purpose of the bombardments, as we all know, is to goad NAF to attack. This the NAF will not do, they are going to sit there and take it for the entire summer if needs be.

There is a small possibility that NAF will attack, it partly depends on what, if anything, Kiev signs next week in regards to the additional withdrawal of weapons, IOW smaller caliber weapons, and taking in to consideration what NAF Command said a few days ago. The ukes will not honor anything they may or may not sign next, actually now this, week. From what I can see both sides are ready to attack and defend, NAF in particular is now very well trained and organized. NAF will do what Moscow says to do in general but at this time, and for the foreseeable future, NAF is outnumbered by a considerable amount. Individual NAF units are generally better organized and trained than the uke units but there are some uke units that have shown they can fight well. NAF did send a very clear message to UAF and Kiev the other day in regards to the bombardments and NAF is not in the habit of making idle threats. We will see what comes in the next few days.

Our situation here has not changed. All is calm and quiet both in our little village and up north on the borders. There is zero increased military activity on the uke side of the border and almost no patrols on their part anywhere near the borders. EUUS/Kiev can fuss and bluster about this peninsula but all understand that any attack on Krim or Sevastopol would be regarded as the same as an attack on St. Pete or Moskau and the response would be devastating. In the event of a NAF attack or successful defense against a uke attack we will instantly have as many more sanctions as can be piled on to us and Moskau. Not much we an do about that.

whir wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:Really reminiscent of when the National Guard rolled into Kramatorsk a little more than a year ago. Here is hoping that the local Right Sector units there has at least half the balls of the rebels that held Slavyansk and Kramatorsk too.

We have yet to see contact with angry locals, things can get ugly very fast even without armed people on the streets as we saw last year.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:They practically have all of Lvov on their side.

Ivan the Colorado wrote: Thank you for your insight Auslander. It is always interesting to hear what you have to say.
So you don't think the situation between the Ukrop Government and Right Sector and their friends will get worse?

whir wrote:

Taras Bulba wrote:ATO in Transcarpathia !?

JohninMK wrote:MOSCOW, July 19. /TASS/. The self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) begins a unilateral withdrawal from the line of engagement of the weapons under 100-mm calibre, Sergei Kozlov of the People’s militia said on Sunday.

"Following the order from head of the Lugansk People’s Republic Igor Plotnitsky, we begin today a unilateral withdrawal from the line of engagement of the weapons under 100-mm calibre to the distance of at least three kilometres," the LuganskInformCentre quoted him. "Despite the complicated military and political situation in Ukraine, we are not going to use this advantage and provoke a new circle of conflict," he said. "While demonstrating the adherence to the Minsk agreements, we are making this step openly and unilaterally hoping the Ukrainian side follows suit."

In order to avoid whatever provocations, he said, the withdrawal will be organised in presence of the OSCE mission representatives.

Andrey Filatov wrote:I occupant

Neutrality wrote:
Slavyansk 2.0
Watch the shit hit the fan. The amount of manpower they brought in is alot more and you can already see the trigger-horny idiots aiming at bystanders like the guy with the camera. It's going to get ugly.

Flagship Victory wrote:What's terrible in this war is that there are so many ethnic Russian Ukrainians who are NATO lovers, who are eager to kill ethnic Russian Ukrainians who love Russia, who are eager to have NATO bases in Donbas along the border with Russia. Klimkin who was born in Russia himself is a fine example of such degenerates. During WW2 all Austrians were pro Germany. There were no nation traitors in Austria. Turchynov and this Olha Reshetilova, whoever she is, should be lined up and executed for being traitors of the Russian nation.  

http://zik.ua/en/news/2015/07/18/ukraine_may_turn_tide_of_war_its_way_with_arta_artillery_control_system_608501

A strong nation must not have nation traitors.