From a German MoA poster on the electricity problem already there and coming. My highlights.
The lack of gas is hitting them hard already although that seems to be kept quite quiet. Hope for Europe's sake that there are emergency disconnect switches on the Ukraine/EU transmission lines.
You wanted to know if things are really that bad in Germany because of the power supply. I have a nice toy for you, with which you can check it yourself. Before that, a few introductory words.
Our politicians are convinced to be smarter than physics. Even though the political leaders often have neither a professional education nor a degree. They were also not attentive enough in school. Otherwise, they would know that at every second exactly as much electricity must be generated as is consumed in order to keep the grid frequency of 50 Hz stable. Small deviations up or down, i.e. 49 Hz or 51 Hz, lead to emergency shutdowns.
Germany wants to be the world champion in renewable energy and the politicians think that if you build extra wind turbines and shut down coal-fired power plants, it will somehow work. Even my little son understands that it doesn't matter whether I have 100 or 1,000,000 wind turbines. If the wind doesn't blow, there's no electricity. And the wind only blows for 2,000 hours at most in Germany. But the year has 8760 hours.
Where does the electricity come from in the remaining 6760 hours? Now we come to the dirty little secret of green technology in Germany. While we shut down our nuclear power plants and coal-fired power plants, nuclear power from France and coal-fired power from Poland should supply us. And the gas power plants. A large part of the gas from Russia is needed for electricity production. France can't help us because more than half of their nuclear power plants are broken. The Poles don't have enough coal. They got it from Russia and they don't want it anymore.
But it is even worse. There is no national power grid. It's a European interconnected grid. A blackout in one country can therefore drag the whole of Europe into the abyss.
While people were happy to have Ukraine integrated in March, they are now realizing that the idea was probably not such a good one after all. Experts now believe that a Europe-wide blackout could occur. Duration 2 to 4 weeks. If that happens, we'll all be living in the Stone Age. Not like in the Middle Ages.
At that time, people still had the tools and knowledge that no longer exist today. Except for the Amish in the USA.
Here you can see how the power generation in Germany is composed. https://www.smard.de/home If you click on the box "Compare market data interactively", you can choose any time period. The upper red line shows the required electricity. Below it, you can see how much electricity was generated and from which sources. You can see that gas and nuclear power play an important role. You can also see that the generated electricity is not always sufficient. So it had to be imported.
It is actually a matter of luck that our power grid still works. This is shown by the number of redispatch measures. Redispatch is intervention in the transmission system to prevent a collapse. Fifteen years ago, there were only 3 of these per year. This year alone there have been 10389 to date,
so about 32 per day to prevent a blackout or brownout. It's a dance on a razor's edge that could end any day.
Posted by: Uwe | Nov 21 2022 0:57 utc | 156