Russia Defence Forum

Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


+43
d_taddei2
cheesfactory
nero
mnztr
KoTeMoRe
Tai Hai Chen
slasher
Armenian
Godric
ahmedfire
calripson
zorobabel
Mindstorm
Stealthflanker
par far
The Ottoman
Tsavo Lion
Karl Haushofer
Arrow
medo
magnumcromagnon
JohninMK
jhelb
Maximmmm
Sujoy
flamming_python
Hannibal Barca
Rodion_Romanovic
SeigSoloyvov
Walther von Oldenburg
GarryB
Regular
thegopnik
franco
AbdulhamidtheSecond
miketheterrible
kvs
PapaDragon
lyle6
Isos
nomadski
George1
littlerabbit
47 posters

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    avatar
    par far

    Posts : 2627
    Points : 2870
    Join date : 2014-06-27

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  par far Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:06 pm

    Russia is also making suicide drones, the question is how do you defend against them?

    SeigSoloyvov
    SeigSoloyvov

    Posts : 2610
    Points : 2594
    Join date : 2016-04-09

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:17 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    I don't really like Putin's approach but it does make sense. If he doesn't have someone dependent on him he won't be able to push through a peace plan and the whole conflict will just go on forever.

    In some ways it could be a bit like Russia's support in Donbass, nothing that could actually be pinned on them but everyone knew they were there.

    But, as I suggested a couple of days ago, an Iskander strike on a bit of minor feeder pipeline, especially the gas line to Turkey, could have them round the negotiating table before you could blink.

    Not really that would also make the Azeri's target none military positions which could lead to a catastrophic result if both start gong there.
    avatar
    AbdulhamidtheSecond

    Posts : 218
    Points : 220
    Join date : 2017-01-14

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:45 pm

    https://twitter.com/seyyah_medya/status/1312415486504730625?s=20

    Madagiz is captured by Azerbaijan army.
    JohninMK
    JohninMK

    Posts : 9385
    Points : 9492
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  JohninMK Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:54 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    JohninMK wrote

    But, as I suggested a couple of days ago, an Iskander strike on a bit of minor feeder pipeline, especially the gas line to Turkey, could have them round the negotiating table before you could blink.

    SeigSoloyvov wrote

    Not really that would also make the Azeri's target none military positions which could lead to a catastrophic result if both start gong there.

    Maybe, but the Armenians have no target that is anywhere near the value and vulnerability of the two pipelines, oil and gas, out of Azeriland. The Azeris are absolutely dependent on the money flow from them and the Turks depend on the gas (as well as probably good pay, they desperately need $, from the Azeris for their help, like in Libya). The gas pipe in particular is the elephant in the room but the Armenians have to demonstrate that they they have the balls to hit it if they have to.

    This is a bit like the UK passing the Law that nullifies the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU. Until we did that the EU did not believe that we would so felt they were in a better negotiating position.
    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

    Posts : 5685
    Points : 5673
    Join date : 2016-08-16
    Location : AZ, USA

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Tsavo Lion Sat Oct 03, 2020 11:15 pm


    • Drones playing big role in Nagorno-Karabakh fight


    https://telegraf.com.ua/mir/aziya/5564045-boi-za-nagornyiy-karabah-chto-izvestno-o-poteryah-i-situatsii-na-utro-3-oktyabrya.html



    • 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1
      Armenia Says It Is Ready to Work for Ceasefire
       
       2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1 Syrian Fighter Details His Experience in Nagorno-Karabakh



    Bus Carrying Russia, Armenian Journalists Hit by Artillery Fire in Nagorno-Karabakh: RIA
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1 Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Ministry Reports 54 More Military Casualties
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1 'We Want More': Armenians in US Push Trump Administration to Support Homeland
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1 Azerbaijan Denies That Warplane and Two Drones Shot Down
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1 Armenian PM Claims Evidence of Turkish Support for Azerbaijan
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1 Russia, Iran Concerned About Syrian and Libyan Fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh: Moscow
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1 Armenian PM Says Turkey Taking New Genocidal Path
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1 Putin, Armenian PM Discuss Nagorno-Karabakh in Third Phone Call in Six Days: Kremlin
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1 Canada Probing Allegations Azeri Forces Are Using Canadian Technology in Nagorno-Karabakh
    If the Azri oil/gas facilities & pipeleins r hit, Armenian NPP will be hit.


    War for Oil, again? Why are Russia and Turkey intervening in the Azerbaijan-Armenia Clashes?

    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

    Posts : 5685
    Points : 5673
    Join date : 2016-08-16
    Location : AZ, USA

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Tsavo Lion Sat Oct 03, 2020 11:49 pm

    Azerbaijani Armed Forces took control of Madagiz - Aliyev village

    Armenia announces destruction of Azerbaijani Armed Forces helicopter

    The French connection

    Is another war between Russia and Turkey possible?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZOpsRL0vHc

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO1yG5V3fGQ

    avatar
    Arrow

    Posts : 1015
    Points : 1013
    Join date : 2012-02-13

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Arrow Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:20 am


    Drones playing big role in Nagorno-Karabakh figh

    Drones rule this battlefield. There are tons of movies about how the Azeris destroy Armenian technology with drones.
    flamming_python
    flamming_python

    Posts : 4987
    Points : 5067
    Join date : 2012-01-30

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  flamming_python Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:35 am

    Armenian officials on their way to Moscow

    https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1312405024769814528

    Ought to be interesting. At least Georgia didn't block this flight.

    Also significant that Putin hasn't phoned up with Aliyev since the conflict began.
    SeigSoloyvov
    SeigSoloyvov

    Posts : 2610
    Points : 2594
    Join date : 2016-04-09

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:38 am

    flamming_python wrote:Armenian officials on their way to Moscow

    https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1312405024769814528

    Ought to be interesting. At least Georgia didn't block this flight.

    Also significant that Putin hasn't phoned up with Aliyev since the conflict began.

    Perhaps they hope to have Moscow commit the armed forces but that won't happen.

    CSTO is under no obligation to protect the region.
    Isos
    Isos

    Posts : 8030
    Points : 8014
    Join date : 2015-11-07

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Isos Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:40 am

    One thing no one mentionned is that Russia can help through Hmeimim. They can bring stuff there with their ships and use il-76 to fly through Iraq/Iran.

    For that matter even through Caspian/Iran/Armenia is also a quick road.
    avatar
    AbdulhamidtheSecond

    Posts : 218
    Points : 220
    Join date : 2017-01-14

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:51 am

    Putin will tell him to fuck off until they remove all the US and NATO related personnel within Armenian government and politics, and abandon any policy that would eventually benefit NATO.

    I think Putin does not fully commit Russia in favor of Armenia as this would draw more US/Israel attention and favor towards Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani oil involves big amount of European investors, especially BP, and Russia does not want to push all these guys to an unescapable corner. Just like cats. If a cat is cornered, then it attacks with what it has.

    I think their strategy will involve non military mediation for a permanent peace, but I dont really think some chunk of Karabakh territory really makes difference for Russia.

    kvs likes this post

    zorobabel
    zorobabel

    Posts : 279
    Points : 279
    Join date : 2015-09-21

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  zorobabel Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:55 am

    Azerbaijan claims to have captured the town of Madaghis: https://t.me/isayevios/1663

    If true, unlike other advances, it is not an abandoned town.
    lyle6
    lyle6

    Posts : 795
    Points : 797
    Join date : 2020-09-14
    Location : Philippines

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  lyle6 Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:01 am

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:Putin will tell him to fuck off until they remove all the US and NATO related personnel within Armenian government and politics, and abandon any policy that would eventually benefit NATO.

    I think Putin does not fully commit Russia in favor of Armenia as this would draw more US/Israel attention and favor towards Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani oil involves big amount of European investors, especially BP, and Russia does not want to push all these guys to an unescapable corner. Just like cats. If a cat is cornered, then it attacks with what it has.

    I think their strategy will involve non military mediation for a permanent peace, but I dont really think some chunk of Karabakh territory really makes difference for Russia.
    Anything that furthers Turkish aims in the region at the expense of Russia is a NATO win. For this reason alone it makes little sense to punish Armenia with losing Artsakh when they clearly are going for a course correction. Why should Russia cut off its nose to spite itself?

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Perhaps they hope to have Moscow commit the armed forces but that won't happen.

    CSTO is under no obligation to protect the region.
    We're under no obligation to hear you repeat the same tired tripe over and over like a broken record yet here we are. But do go on, eventually you'll actually learn to believe what you've been saying.

    zorobabel wrote:Azerbaijan claims to have captured the town of Madaghis: https://t.me/isayevios/1663

    If true, unlike other advances, it is not an abandoned town.
    The frontlines are quite fluid. Expect a counter-attack to retake the town just like they did with other positions.

    flamming_python, OminousSpudd and miketheterrible like this post

    SeigSoloyvov
    SeigSoloyvov

    Posts : 2610
    Points : 2594
    Join date : 2016-04-09

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:07 am

    If you believe CSTO has any obligation to protect Karabakh you are delusional plain and simple.
    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

    Posts : 5685
    Points : 5673
    Join date : 2016-08-16
    Location : AZ, USA

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Tsavo Lion Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:13 am

    Putin may wait 2-3 weeks more till both sides get exhausted & run out of ammo. before coming in & annexing both Armenia & Azerbaijan or at least Nagorno-Karabakh.
    E. Georgian areas r also claimed by Armenia & Russia may want to take it as well to have a land corridor to Armenia.
    Most of the fighters from Syria that Turkey sent there r C. Asians from the Stans & China; Russia & Armenia r now justified to target anywhere incl. in Azerbaijan itself. Otherwise, the area will become another Chechnya, Dagestan & Afghanistan infested with jihadis.
    SeigSoloyvov
    SeigSoloyvov

    Posts : 2610
    Points : 2594
    Join date : 2016-04-09

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:16 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Putin may wait 2-3 weeks more till both sides get exhausted & run out of ammo. before coming in & annexing both Armenia & Azerbaijan or at least Nagorno-Karabakh.
    E. Georgian areas r also claimed by Armenia & Russia may want to take it as well to have a land corridor to Armenia.
    Most of the fighters from Syria that Turkey sent there r C. Asians from the Stans & China; Russia & Armenia r now justified to target anywhere incl. in Azerbaijan itself. Otherwise, the area will become another Chechnya, Dagestan & Afghanistan infested with jihadis.

    Are you high? Putin isn't going to annex Armenia and Azerbaijan...

    No Russia isn't justified to target Azerbaijan because some terrorists are there, that's like saying that gives the US the right to bomb Russia if it had a group we consider terrorists....

    Everything you just said is crazy talk.
    lyle6
    lyle6

    Posts : 795
    Points : 797
    Join date : 2020-09-14
    Location : Philippines

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  lyle6 Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:35 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Putin may wait 2-3 weeks more till both sides get exhausted & run out of ammo. before coming in & annexing both Armenia & Azerbaijan or at least Nagorno-Karabakh.
    E. Georgian areas r also claimed by Armenia & Russia may want to take it as well to have a land corridor to Armenia.
    Most of the fighters from Syria that Turkey sent there r C. Asians from the Stans & China; Russia & Armenia r now justified to target anywhere incl. in Azerbaijan itself. Otherwise, the area will become another Chechnya, Dagestan & Afghanistan infested with jihadis.
    That's too much. It makes no sense to go for annexation. Historically the region was always underdeveloped and required far too much Russian blood and treasure to keep than it gave back. Losing these states has been a net boon for the Russians.

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:If you believe CSTO has any obligation to protect Karabakh you are delusional plain and simple.
    Projections aside, by what arcane motivation do you think would propel Russia to act in the manner that you are predicting it would?
    What would Russia gain if Armenia is thrown under the bus?

    flamming_python likes this post

    Isos
    Isos

    Posts : 8030
    Points : 8014
    Join date : 2015-11-07

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Isos Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:58 am

    Russia doesn't care about NK. It doesn't recognize it anyway so they have no obligation to help Armenia.

    However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall. As long as it is a war for and in NK they won't act. But if it gets bigger than that Azeri will get some clear messages and will have to sign a cease fire.

    A bit like in Syria. They did nothing untill their bases were threatened and then bombed the shit out of everyone. Azeri are not stupid.
    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

    Posts : 5685
    Points : 5673
    Join date : 2016-08-16
    Location : AZ, USA

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Tsavo Lion Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:03 am

    No Russia isn't justified to target Azerbaijan because some terrorists are there, that's like saying that gives the US the right to bomb Russia if it had a group we consider terrorists....
    She felt justified enough intervening in Syria to protect the Assad regime from ISIS/other "terrorists", many of whom came from the Caucasus & killing them there; now some of them r in the Caucasus which is a natural barrier for large scale invasion of S. Russia with its Black & Caspian coasts, roads & internal waterways. It's also a platform to watch/keep in check Turkey & Iran, just like Tibet is for China to watch/keep in check India.
    However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall.
    Ditto. Ms of  Azeris also live in Dagestan which is in RF & elsewhere in the RF, not to mention Ms of Armenians. If the war goes on, it will spread to Russian cities were they will engage in pogroms & killings- some of it already happened. Other Muslims & Christians will join them. Is it better for Russia to expel them all instead & become more exposed on her Southern flank?


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:23 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    Isos
    Isos

    Posts : 8030
    Points : 8014
    Join date : 2015-11-07

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Isos Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:05 am

    Another failed attack with israeli missile. The LORA missile used yesterday targeted this bridge and failed to destroy it. Using missiles to destroy bridges isn't the best choice.


    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Eja-pr10
    PapaDragon
    PapaDragon

    Posts : 11564
    Points : 11632
    Join date : 2015-04-26
    Location : Fort Evil, Serbia

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  PapaDragon Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:21 am

    Isos wrote:One thing no one mentionned is that Russia can help through Hmeimim. They can bring stuff there with their ships and use il-76 to fly through Iraq/Iran.
    For that matter even through Caspian/Iran/Armenia is also a quick road.

    They can't really, Turkey has the Bosphorus Strait

    And why would they when mainland Russia is closer?



    lyle6 wrote:For this reason alone it makes little sense to punish Armenia with losing Artsakh when they clearly are going for a course correction.

    They are going for course correction now when everyone else dropped them cold and are getting ripped to shreds

    Like with Belarus Russia was not their first option (or anything other than dead last and only in absolute desperation) and this fact is not lost on Russia

    Armenia simply failed to do it's homework on Nagorno Karabah despite having years to do so and knowing full well that Azerbaijan is getting ready to move



    And while Russia does need Armenia they don't really need Nagorno Karabah and Armenia should have known this (not even Armenia seems to need it otherwise they would have recognized it by now)

    And this will not stop with Nagorno Karabah, that pan-Turckic corridor or whatever is still bisected by Armenia itself and while Azeris may want to stop after this the Turks will definitely not stop (and Azeris will be owing them big time)

    So this will not be stopping for a very long time and Armenians should have figured it out by now



    What's left to be seen is if they still even have anything they could offer to Russia in exchange for help (as in something that Russia would not be able to get much cheaper anyway once this is done)

    I doubt they do, they are now forced to ask for a lot and with very little to offer in return





    lyle6
    lyle6

    Posts : 795
    Points : 797
    Join date : 2020-09-14
    Location : Philippines

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  lyle6 Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:24 am

    Isos wrote:Russia doesn't care about NK. It doesn't recognize it anyway so they have no obligation to help Armenia.

    However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall. As long as it is a war for and in NK they won't act. But if it gets bigger than that Azeri will get some clear messages and will have to sign a cease fire.

    A bit like in Syria. They did nothing untill their bases were threatened and then bombed the shit out of everyone. Azeri are not stupid.
    And yet I fail to see exactly any reason at all for Russia to just allow the Azeris to take Artsakh. Nothing. The Azeris and Turks are no military threats at all. They don't have nearly a fraction of the influence Russia commands in the region. They don't have the economy to pursue a war or even to bankroll their diplomacy. They aren't even stable domestically - one suffered a coup relatively recently and the other is a gulf shithole transplanted to the Caucasus complete with neutered military for coup-proofing. Why should Russia cower to these two jokes of a country?
    Isos
    Isos

    Posts : 8030
    Points : 8014
    Join date : 2015-11-07

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Isos Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:37 am

    An intervention is easy but then maintaining the peace is quite impossible (Syria, Iraq, Afghan.) and that would bring more instability and impact Chechnya which is something Putin doesn't want.

    A rich muslim country at your border is better than a poor one.

    lyle6
    lyle6

    Posts : 795
    Points : 797
    Join date : 2020-09-14
    Location : Philippines

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  lyle6 Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:44 am

    Isos wrote:An intervention is easy but then maintaining the peace is quite impossible (Syria, Iraq, Afghan.) and that would bring more instability and impact Chechnya which is something Putin doesn't want.

    A rich muslim country at your border is better than a poor one.

    The status quo was a perfectly fine state of affairs. The Azeris had no need for Artsakh dirt-poor that it is and filled with people who despise the Azeris. They only want Artsakh because they got their egos mauled badly by the Armenians who refused to lie down and die. F*ck them. If they want an escalation they are welcome to it. Start with calibrating the Azeri energy extraction sites, and deporting Azeri guest workers en masse. See how they like being plunged in poverty like they did the Artsakhians.
    avatar
    slasher

    Posts : 197
    Points : 197
    Join date : 2015-09-28

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  slasher Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:48 am

    I say let these former Soviet and Warsaw Pact states who choose to flirt with the West and spit on Russia pay dearly for their fantasy forays. Let them come to terms with reality the hard way and pay the full price. The whole lot of them... Armenia, Ukraine, Belarus, Serbia...
    Putin is playing this well, make them pay until they break. Until they come to realize it is them that need Russia and not Russia that needs them. The venom and hatred piled on Russia in the past two decades should not be forgotten or lightly forgiven.

    kvs likes this post


    Sponsored content

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:08 pm