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    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

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    par far


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    Post  par far Sat Oct 03, 2020 5:06 pm

    Russia is also making suicide drones, the question is how do you defend against them?

    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sat Oct 03, 2020 5:17 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    I don't really like Putin's approach but it does make sense. If he doesn't have someone dependent on him he won't be able to push through a peace plan and the whole conflict will just go on forever.

    In some ways it could be a bit like Russia's support in Donbass, nothing that could actually be pinned on them but everyone knew they were there.

    But, as I suggested a couple of days ago, an Iskander strike on a bit of minor feeder pipeline, especially the gas line to Turkey, could have them round the negotiating table before you could blink.

    Not really that would also make the Azeri's target none military positions which could lead to a catastrophic result if both start gong there.
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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Sat Oct 03, 2020 5:45 pm

    https://twitter.com/seyyah_medya/status/1312415486504730625?s=20

    Madagiz is captured by Azerbaijan army.
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Oct 03, 2020 5:54 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    JohninMK wrote

    But, as I suggested a couple of days ago, an Iskander strike on a bit of minor feeder pipeline, especially the gas line to Turkey, could have them round the negotiating table before you could blink.

    SeigSoloyvov wrote

    Not really that would also make the Azeri's target none military positions which could lead to a catastrophic result if both start gong there.

    Maybe, but the Armenians have no target that is anywhere near the value and vulnerability of the two pipelines, oil and gas, out of Azeriland. The Azeris are absolutely dependent on the money flow from them and the Turks depend on the gas (as well as probably good pay, they desperately need $, from the Azeris for their help, like in Libya). The gas pipe in particular is the elephant in the room but the Armenians have to demonstrate that they they have the balls to hit it if they have to.

    This is a bit like the UK passing the Law that nullifies the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU. Until we did that the EU did not believe that we would so felt they were in a better negotiating position.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:15 pm


    • Drones playing big role in Nagorno-Karabakh fight


    https://telegraf.com.ua/mir/aziya/5564045-boi-za-nagornyiy-karabah-chto-izvestno-o-poteryah-i-situatsii-na-utro-3-oktyabrya.html



    • 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1
      Armenia Says It Is Ready to Work for Ceasefire
       
       2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1Syrian Fighter Details His Experience in Nagorno-Karabakh



    Bus Carrying Russia, Armenian Journalists Hit by Artillery Fire in Nagorno-Karabakh: RIA
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Ministry Reports 54 More Military Casualties
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1'We Want More': Armenians in US Push Trump Administration to Support Homeland
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1Azerbaijan Denies That Warplane and Two Drones Shot Down
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1Armenian PM Claims Evidence of Turkish Support for Azerbaijan
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1Russia, Iran Concerned About Syrian and Libyan Fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh: Moscow
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1Armenian PM Says Turkey Taking New Genocidal Path
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1Putin, Armenian PM Discuss Nagorno-Karabakh in Third Phone Call in Six Days: Kremlin
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Blkbullet1Canada Probing Allegations Azeri Forces Are Using Canadian Technology in Nagorno-Karabakh
    If the Azri oil/gas facilities & pipeleins r hit, Armenian NPP will be hit.


    War for Oil, again? Why are Russia and Turkey intervening in the Azerbaijan-Armenia Clashes?

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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:49 pm

    Azerbaijani Armed Forces took control of Madagiz - Aliyev village

    Armenia announces destruction of Azerbaijani Armed Forces helicopter

    The French connection

    Is another war between Russia and Turkey possible?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZOpsRL0vHc

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO1yG5V3fGQ

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    Post  Arrow Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:20 pm


    Drones playing big role in Nagorno-Karabakh figh

    Drones rule this battlefield. There are tons of movies about how the Azeris destroy Armenian technology with drones.
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:35 pm

    Armenian officials on their way to Moscow

    https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1312405024769814528

    Ought to be interesting. At least Georgia didn't block this flight.

    Also significant that Putin hasn't phoned up with Aliyev since the conflict began.
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:38 pm

    flamming_python wrote:Armenian officials on their way to Moscow

    https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1312405024769814528

    Ought to be interesting. At least Georgia didn't block this flight.

    Also significant that Putin hasn't phoned up with Aliyev since the conflict began.

    Perhaps they hope to have Moscow commit the armed forces but that won't happen.

    CSTO is under no obligation to protect the region.
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    Post  Isos Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:40 pm

    One thing no one mentionned is that Russia can help through Hmeimim. They can bring stuff there with their ships and use il-76 to fly through Iraq/Iran.

    For that matter even through Caspian/Iran/Armenia is also a quick road.
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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:51 pm

    Putin will tell him to fuck off until they remove all the US and NATO related personnel within Armenian government and politics, and abandon any policy that would eventually benefit NATO.

    I think Putin does not fully commit Russia in favor of Armenia as this would draw more US/Israel attention and favor towards Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani oil involves big amount of European investors, especially BP, and Russia does not want to push all these guys to an unescapable corner. Just like cats. If a cat is cornered, then it attacks with what it has.

    I think their strategy will involve non military mediation for a permanent peace, but I dont really think some chunk of Karabakh territory really makes difference for Russia.

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    Post  zorobabel Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:55 pm

    Azerbaijan claims to have captured the town of Madaghis: https://t.me/isayevios/1663

    If true, unlike other advances, it is not an abandoned town.
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    Post  lyle6 Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:01 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:Putin will tell him to fuck off until they remove all the US and NATO related personnel within Armenian government and politics, and abandon any policy that would eventually benefit NATO.

    I think Putin does not fully commit Russia in favor of Armenia as this would draw more US/Israel attention and favor towards Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani oil involves big amount of European investors, especially BP, and Russia does not want to push all these guys to an unescapable corner. Just like cats. If a cat is cornered, then it attacks with what it has.

    I think their strategy will involve non military mediation for a permanent peace, but I dont really think some chunk of Karabakh territory really makes difference for Russia.
    Anything that furthers Turkish aims in the region at the expense of Russia is a NATO win. For this reason alone it makes little sense to punish Armenia with losing Artsakh when they clearly are going for a course correction. Why should Russia cut off its nose to spite itself?

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Perhaps they hope to have Moscow commit the armed forces but that won't happen.

    CSTO is under no obligation to protect the region.
    We're under no obligation to hear you repeat the same tired tripe over and over like a broken record yet here we are. But do go on, eventually you'll actually learn to believe what you've been saying.

    zorobabel wrote:Azerbaijan claims to have captured the town of Madaghis: https://t.me/isayevios/1663

    If true, unlike other advances, it is not an abandoned town.
    The frontlines are quite fluid. Expect a counter-attack to retake the town just like they did with other positions.

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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:07 pm

    If you believe CSTO has any obligation to protect Karabakh you are delusional plain and simple.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:13 pm

    Putin may wait 2-3 weeks more till both sides get exhausted & run out of ammo. before coming in & annexing both Armenia & Azerbaijan or at least Nagorno-Karabakh.
    E. Georgian areas r also claimed by Armenia & Russia may want to take it as well to have a land corridor to Armenia.
    Most of the fighters from Syria that Turkey sent there r C. Asians from the Stans & China; Russia & Armenia r now justified to target anywhere incl. in Azerbaijan itself. Otherwise, the area will become another Chechnya, Dagestan & Afghanistan infested with jihadis.
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:16 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Putin may wait 2-3 weeks more till both sides get exhausted & run out of ammo. before coming in & annexing both Armenia & Azerbaijan or at least Nagorno-Karabakh.
    E. Georgian areas r also claimed by Armenia & Russia may want to take it as well to have a land corridor to Armenia.
    Most of the fighters from Syria that Turkey sent there r C. Asians from the Stans & China; Russia & Armenia r now justified to target anywhere incl. in Azerbaijan itself. Otherwise, the area will become another Chechnya, Dagestan & Afghanistan infested with jihadis.

    Are you high? Putin isn't going to annex Armenia and Azerbaijan...

    No Russia isn't justified to target Azerbaijan because some terrorists are there, that's like saying that gives the US the right to bomb Russia if it had a group we consider terrorists....

    Everything you just said is crazy talk.
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    Post  lyle6 Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:35 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Putin may wait 2-3 weeks more till both sides get exhausted & run out of ammo. before coming in & annexing both Armenia & Azerbaijan or at least Nagorno-Karabakh.
    E. Georgian areas r also claimed by Armenia & Russia may want to take it as well to have a land corridor to Armenia.
    Most of the fighters from Syria that Turkey sent there r C. Asians from the Stans & China; Russia & Armenia r now justified to target anywhere incl. in Azerbaijan itself. Otherwise, the area will become another Chechnya, Dagestan & Afghanistan infested with jihadis.
    That's too much. It makes no sense to go for annexation. Historically the region was always underdeveloped and required far too much Russian blood and treasure to keep than it gave back. Losing these states has been a net boon for the Russians.

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:If you believe CSTO has any obligation to protect Karabakh you are delusional plain and simple.
    Projections aside, by what arcane motivation do you think would propel Russia to act in the manner that you are predicting it would?
    What would Russia gain if Armenia is thrown under the bus?

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:58 pm

    Russia doesn't care about NK. It doesn't recognize it anyway so they have no obligation to help Armenia.

    However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall. As long as it is a war for and in NK they won't act. But if it gets bigger than that Azeri will get some clear messages and will have to sign a cease fire.

    A bit like in Syria. They did nothing untill their bases were threatened and then bombed the shit out of everyone. Azeri are not stupid.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:03 pm

    No Russia isn't justified to target Azerbaijan because some terrorists are there, that's like saying that gives the US the right to bomb Russia if it had a group we consider terrorists....
    She felt justified enough intervening in Syria to protect the Assad regime from ISIS/other "terrorists", many of whom came from the Caucasus & killing them there; now some of them r in the Caucasus which is a natural barrier for large scale invasion of S. Russia with its Black & Caspian coasts, roads & internal waterways. It's also a platform to watch/keep in check Turkey & Iran, just like Tibet is for China to watch/keep in check India.
    However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall.
    Ditto. Ms of  Azeris also live in Dagestan which is in RF & elsewhere in the RF, not to mention Ms of Armenians. If the war goes on, it will spread to Russian cities were they will engage in pogroms & killings- some of it already happened. Other Muslims & Christians will join them. Is it better for Russia to expel them all instead & become more exposed on her Southern flank?


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:23 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:05 pm

    Another failed attack with israeli missile. The LORA missile used yesterday targeted this bridge and failed to destroy it. Using missiles to destroy bridges isn't the best choice.


    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 11 Eja-pr10
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    Post  PapaDragon Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:21 pm

    Isos wrote:One thing no one mentionned is that Russia can help through Hmeimim. They can bring stuff there with their ships and use il-76 to fly through Iraq/Iran.
    For that matter even through Caspian/Iran/Armenia is also a quick road.

    They can't really, Turkey has the Bosphorus Strait

    And why would they when mainland Russia is closer?



    lyle6 wrote:For this reason alone it makes little sense to punish Armenia with losing Artsakh when they clearly are going for a course correction.

    They are going for course correction now when everyone else dropped them cold and are getting ripped to shreds

    Like with Belarus Russia was not their first option (or anything other than dead last and only in absolute desperation) and this fact is not lost on Russia

    Armenia simply failed to do it's homework on Nagorno Karabah despite having years to do so and knowing full well that Azerbaijan is getting ready to move



    And while Russia does need Armenia they don't really need Nagorno Karabah and Armenia should have known this (not even Armenia seems to need it otherwise they would have recognized it by now)

    And this will not stop with Nagorno Karabah, that pan-Turckic corridor or whatever is still bisected by Armenia itself and while Azeris may want to stop after this the Turks will definitely not stop (and Azeris will be owing them big time)

    So this will not be stopping for a very long time and Armenians should have figured it out by now



    What's left to be seen is if they still even have anything they could offer to Russia in exchange for help (as in something that Russia would not be able to get much cheaper anyway once this is done)

    I doubt they do, they are now forced to ask for a lot and with very little to offer in return





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    Post  lyle6 Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:24 pm

    Isos wrote:Russia doesn't care about NK. It doesn't recognize it anyway so they have no obligation to help Armenia.

    However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall. As long as it is a war for and in NK they won't act. But if it gets bigger than that Azeri will get some clear messages and will have to sign a cease fire.

    A bit like in Syria. They did nothing untill their bases were threatened and then bombed the shit out of everyone. Azeri are not stupid.
    And yet I fail to see exactly any reason at all for Russia to just allow the Azeris to take Artsakh. Nothing. The Azeris and Turks are no military threats at all. They don't have nearly a fraction of the influence Russia commands in the region. They don't have the economy to pursue a war or even to bankroll their diplomacy. They aren't even stable domestically - one suffered a coup relatively recently and the other is a gulf shithole transplanted to the Caucasus complete with neutered military for coup-proofing. Why should Russia cower to these two jokes of a country?
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    Post  Isos Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:37 pm

    An intervention is easy but then maintaining the peace is quite impossible (Syria, Iraq, Afghan.) and that would bring more instability and impact Chechnya which is something Putin doesn't want.

    A rich muslim country at your border is better than a poor one.

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    Post  lyle6 Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:44 pm

    Isos wrote:An intervention is easy but then maintaining the peace is quite impossible (Syria, Iraq, Afghan.) and that would bring more instability and impact Chechnya which is something Putin doesn't want.

    A rich muslim country at your border is better than a poor one.

    The status quo was a perfectly fine state of affairs. The Azeris had no need for Artsakh dirt-poor that it is and filled with people who despise the Azeris. They only want Artsakh because they got their egos mauled badly by the Armenians who refused to lie down and die. F*ck them. If they want an escalation they are welcome to it. Start with calibrating the Azeri energy extraction sites, and deporting Azeri guest workers en masse. See how they like being plunged in poverty like they did the Artsakhians.
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    Post  slasher Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:48 pm

    I say let these former Soviet and Warsaw Pact states who choose to flirt with the West and spit on Russia pay dearly for their fantasy forays. Let them come to terms with reality the hard way and pay the full price. The whole lot of them... Armenia, Ukraine, Belarus, Serbia...
    Putin is playing this well, make them pay until they break. Until they come to realize it is them that need Russia and not Russia that needs them. The venom and hatred piled on Russia in the past two decades should not be forgotten or lightly forgiven.

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