2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

@Seig that's what I said.

Doesn't seem like it. There is confirmed shelling of Verdenis-Sotk highway in Armenia.

Armenian ambassador said they won't ask russian help as of now because that's not a full war and Russia wants to maintain good relations with both.

"Syrian JIHADIST fighters are operating in Nagorno-Karabakh, Macron says, citing ‘credible information’."

"Militants from extremist groups previously active in Syria have arrived in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh amid a military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, French President Emmanuel Macron has said.

“Now, we have credible information, which indicates that Syrian fighters from some jihadist groups have reached the Nagorno-Karabakh battlefield through Gaziantep,” Macron told journalists as he arrived at an EU summit in Brussels, mentioning a southern Turkish city the militants supposedly passed through on their way to the disputed region."

This is huge from Moron, it drives a wedge between Turkey and Europe/NATO, I always wonder how things change so quickly in politics, the same people that Moron is calling " extremist groups previously active in Syria", are the same groups that France helped train.

Russia just needs to stay neutral and try to slowly end this conflict, Russia should not be too quick to end it because the longer this go on, the more Turkey becomes involved and the more it pits Turkey against Europe.

https://www.rt.com/russia/502251-macron-syrian-jihadists-nagorno-karabakh/

Isos wrote:@Seig that's what I said.

Doesn't seem like it. There is confirmed shelling of Verdenis-Sotk highway in Armenia.

Armenian ambassador said they won't ask russian help as of now because that's not a full war and Russia wants to maintain good relations with both.

Okay. I can understand.

lyle6 wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
Uncorrect and correct.

CSTO requires you to be attacked on your home soil, Since not even Russia considers the land in question part of Armenia formally. CSTO would not have to act in any military mnner if request.

Long as Azerbaijan only attacks the disputed region, Russia isn't required to act.

The only part you are correct on is IF they attack land Russia considers to be part of Armenia that it will be forced into action.

Half of Artsakh including the capital Stepanakert is within artillery range from Armenia. The Azeris simply can't advance if those guns can shoot with impunity. But retaliating would involve attacking Armenian soil - just exactly the excuse the Russians need. Ditto for its BMs and heavy rocket artillery.

You are being illogical. Russia risks losing Armenia as an ally and the CSTO framework if they allow the Azeris to capture Karabakh without firing a single Russian bullet, and all for what? The possibility that maybe the Azeris might align with the Russians somehow? That's delusional.

Sorry but there's no end state where the Azeris and Turks come out on top. Just in dead bodies and debt.

I am not being "illogical", Russia does not consider the disputed land to be part of Armenia (No one country in the world considers that region to be part of Armenia) and CSTO requires you are attacked on home soil.

CSTO will not come to the aid of "Disputed Lands" the collective defense treaty doesn't have the clause "if you are attacked on lands considered occupied".

I don't give a shit if Turks or Azeris die, I am simply stating the facts as they are. Which is since Karabakh is considered occupied even by the Russians, the Russians have no obligation under the treaty to assist in defense of that region.

You don't like it? tough that's the facts.

Anyone arguing Russia has an obligation to defend Artsakh is full of crap. I think any reasonable person recognizes that. That doesn't mean Armenians aren't pretty damn tough.

Edit: Ideal scenario would be that Armenia-Artsakh could launch a counter-attack into Azerbaijan, forcing a ceasefire and peace talks. Artsakh would release abandoned lowlands and major Azeri settlements in exchange for recognition of its independence (or part of Armenia). Will it happen? no.

Maximmmm wrote:Today seemed to be more about political posturing than anything else.
We saw the joint US_France-Russia statement calling for peace and of course the Turkish rebuttal, there's the typical mud-slinging at the Armenian-Azeri level as well.

Thinking about it from a different perspective, maybe if this keeps going for a bit the west can finally be distracted from Navalny, Belarus and Nord-Stream2. Maybe we can even get around to restarting the construction of the final stretch while this goes on.

You guys all kidding yourselves.

This whole thing is from the same halls of power that gave us Navalny, Belarus and the Nord-Stream 2 cockblocking, and they'll find a way to blame Russia for this one too

Now Tabriz in Iran is protesting; South Azerbaijan province
https://twitter.com/ISCResearch/status/1311701645462573064
https://twitter.com/aydiniran/status/1311678039630270465
https://twitter.com/trtworld/status/1311719017799921667

If Iran ends up with a seperatist conflict supported by Turkey-NATO and losses that territory; then Armenia's only remaining open border will be with NATO puppet Georgia. Hence Armenia will also be forced to become a NATO puppet; which explains Micron's feelers to it. And then united Azerbaijan will go over to NATO too and link up with Central Asia.

That's a big if though. Iran has enough inertia and cohesion to withstand destablization, not to mention an effective police apparatus.

It is no mistake this happened after Turkey complained of Russian inflexibility in Syria. Turkey is not and never will be an ally of Russia. Selling them military hardware is a mistake. Before his death, Brzezinski was a huge proponent of expanded pan-Turkic nationalism: it is not difficult to figure out why.

Armenia is in a very difficult spot geographically and frankly has little to offer Russia in return. Russia should not become militarily involved in Armenia. If Armenia goes NATO/EU route who cares? Georgia borders Russia and is already doing the same thing.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
I am not being "illogical", Russia does not consider the disputed land to be part of Armenia (No one country in the world considers that region to be part of Armenia) and CSTO requires you are attacked on home soil.

CSTO will not come to the aid of "Disputed Lands" the collective defense treaty doesn't have the clause "if you are attacked on lands considered occupied".

I don't give a shit if Turks or Azeris die, I am simply stating the facts as they are. Which is since Karabakh is considered occupied even by the Russians, the Russians have no obligation under the treaty to assist in defense of that region.

You don't like it? tough that's the facts.

You simply don't get it. Its immaterial whether Russia considers Artsakh a part of Armenia or not - their ally Armenia certainly does. Artsakh is not just a historic territory of the Armenian peoples - its home to people the Armenian state has a responsibility to protect simply because they are kin. Its basic human instinct, a matter that you can't horse trade with. Whether Russia is behind them or not, the Armenians will fight, and it will get ugly and they are going to require Russia's help. If Russia fails to follow through, then Armenia is simply lost to them. Expect a NATO brigade at the gates of the 102nd coming to evict. To support Armenia is simply pragmatism, to do otherwise is to reserve a spot in the nearest loony bin.

S-300 finally got her cherry popped:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1311750826277380100
First combat use over the skies of Kotayk province in Armenia.

So let's do nothing. Since the fighting is in disputed territory. Let's allow one or other side to make gains and losses. Create more refugees and more  disputed territory. And since fighting is  within this increasing disputed territory, we will  increasingly do nothing. Until one nation is swallowed by another and occupied, and the entire territory is disputed, and we can do absolutely  nothing, since entire territory is disputed.

Irrespective of recognition by one state of another, an occupying power is de- facto power and has legal responsibility, for territory under control. Therefore the boundary is the line of contact. And Armenia is attacked, if attacked at any point along this line, or on territory it excersises control. And so is Azerbaijan.

Therefore, even if territories not recognised or in dispute, the line of contact defines legal boundaries. The best plan is a negotiation, leading to new boundaries that both states find more agreeable. Not further war, refugees and destruction.

lyle6 wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
I am not being "illogical", Russia does not consider the disputed land to be part of Armenia (No one country in the world considers that region to be part of Armenia) and CSTO requires you are attacked on home soil.

CSTO will not come to the aid of "Disputed Lands" the collective defense treaty doesn't have the clause "if you are attacked on lands considered occupied".

I don't give a shit if Turks or Azeris die, I am simply stating the facts as they are. Which is since Karabakh is considered occupied even by the Russians, the Russians have no obligation under the treaty to assist in defense of that region.

You don't like it? tough that's the facts.

You simply don't get it. Its immaterial whether Russia considers Artsakh a part of Armenia or not - their ally Armenia certainly does. Artsakh is not just a historic territory of the Armenian peoples - its home to people the Armenian state has a responsibility to protect simply because they are kin. Its basic human instinct, a matter that you can't horse trade with. Whether Russia is behind them or not, the Armenians will fight, and it will get ugly and they are going to require Russia's help. If Russia fails to follow through, then Armenia is simply lost to them. Expect a NATO brigade at the gates of the 102nd coming to evict. To support Armenia is simply pragmatism, to do otherwise is to reserve a spot in the nearest loony bin.

Russia does not have an obligation to protect its ally's annexations and Armenia is well aware of this fact, if Armenia wants to keep the land let them but the Russians aren't going to support them with military force while doing so and honestly they shouldn't. This is a war Armenia started when it occupied land recognized by everyone including Russia has being part of another country, so Armenia will be fighting this war on their own.

Demanding the Russians protect is ignorant they have no treaties or obligations to protect that region and they aren't going to do it period, Armenia is well aware of this fact.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1311752504334524417

More video about the S-300 use. Shit down an UAV.

It seems also that Azeri modified their An-2 into UAV abd test armebian defences with them. 2 or 3 were shot down.

nomadski wrote:So let's do nothing. Since the fighting is in disputed territory. Let's allow one or other side to make gains and losses. Create more refugees and more  disputed territory. And since fighting is  within this increasing disputed territory, we will  increasingly do nothing. Until one nation is swallowed by another and occupied, and the entire territory is disputed, and we can do absolutely  nothing, since entire territory is disputed.

Irrespective of recognition by one state of another, an occupying power is de- facto power and has legal responsibility, for territory under control. Therefore the boundary is the line of contact. And Armenia is attacked, if attacked at any point along this line, or on territory it excersises control. And so is Azerbaijan.

Therefore, even if territories not recognised or in dispute, the line of contact defines legal boundaries. The best plan is a negotiation, leading to new boundaries that both states find more agreeable. Not further war, refugees and destruction.

Azer will not march into Armenia....you silly to even suggest that. They simply want Karabakh back that is all.

If Azer tried to march into actual Armenia territory then Russia would react.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
Russia does not have an obligation to protect its ally's annexations and Armenia is well aware of this fact, if Armenia wants to keep the land let them but the Russians aren't going to support them with military force while doing so and honestly they shouldn't. This is a war Armenia started when it occupied land recognized by everyone including Russia has being part of another country, so Armenia will be fighting this war on their own.

Demanding the Russians protect is ignorant they have no treaties or obligations to protect that region and they aren't going to do it period, Armenia is well aware of this fact.

It doesn't but it will be forced to act all the same. Or Armenia would find an ally that will. I hear NATO is in the neighborhood for try outs, and Iran is free.

This is really getting tiresome but have you even considered that Russia could and did abrogate its responsibilities whenever the calculus of realpolitik decides against it? Ukraine and the Budapest Memorandum is the fastest that comes to mind. Russia may preen at the UN that the US is 'agreement incapable' but she herself is guilty of that sin quite a few times.

I am against any state, taking sides here to advance the cause of either side as well. But according to this CSTO, ...... ".. come to aid, if attacked on home soil....." Since a long time passed since territory changed hands, enough time for homes to be built and children born and new generation. Then Armenia is on home soil. Many refugees who made homes elsewhere and had children, also are now on home soil. A new generation. A regenerative cycle. Those that have not made homes or children  in new territory, are not on home soil. They have more right of return or exit. The world should help in this. Stop the fighting. Stop offensives, by providing defense. Come to aid.

Babak Taghvaee - Μπάπακ Τακβαίε - بابک تقوایی (B)
·
20 min
#BREAKING: According to a #Russian military source, LORA ballistic missiles were launched at #Yerevan by #Azerbaijan Army. Their target is unknown. Also a surveillance drone which probably assisted the ballistic missile attack is shot-down by S-300PS of #Armenia Air Defense Force

How a new adventure around Nagorno-Karabakh was prepared
https://regnum.ru/news/polit/3078783.html

New Armenia-Azerbaijan fighting a long time in the making

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcvpexfBys4


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLmAAUlteUg

I said S400 or Bavar 373 defensive is legal aid for Armenia. As well as stopping shipment of this BM to Azerbaijan, used offensively. I think Russia can ship by air, over Georgia. For immediate  shipment installation. Iran can put blockade around Baku ( Badkoobeh) . Against this offensive missiles.

Georgia blocked access to its airspace to Russia. So no, they have to go through Iran

nomadski wrote:I am against any state, taking sides here to advance the cause of either side as well. But according to this CSTO, ...... ".. come to aid, if attacked on home soil....." Since a long time passed since territory changed hands, enough time for homes to be built and children born and new generation. Then Armenia is on home soil. Many refugees who made homes elsewhere and had children, also are now on home soil. A new generation. A regenerative cycle. Those that have not made homes or children  in new territory, are not on home soil. They have more right of return or exit. The world should help in this. Stop the fighting. Stop offensives, by providing defense. Come to aid.

This nothing more than an emotional drabble, the region is recognized worldwide as belonging to Azerijiban.

What if this is a joint Turko-Russian plan?

1.- Both nations lost a vast amount of armour, weapons, vehicles, aircraft and ammo. Both sides will place orders by Russia and Turkey.

2.- This war is decreasing the attention for Nordstream 2, Belarus and Navalny. Good for Russia.

3.- This war is also decreasing the attention for the Aegean, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Turkish economy. Good for Erdogan.

4.- This is the 6th theater where Turkey and Russia are involved in.

- Syria (fighting eachother with proxys & cooperating for peace)
- Libya (fighting eachother with proxys)
- Afghanistan (cooperating for peace)
- Balkan Theater (cooperating economicly with Turkstream and Serbian-Bosnian highway project)
- Eastern Mediterranean (silently observing eachothers maneuvers and drills)

Putin and Erdogan talked on the phone, and Cavusoglu and Lavrov did also today. They said it were good talks.

Something is happening, something is planned behind closed doors. I dont know what to think.

miketheterrible wrote:Georgia blocked access to its airspace to Russia. So no, they have to go through Iran

Don't know what's the situation between Armenia and Georgia but this will not go unnoticed come Christmas card time...

The Ottoman wrote:What if this is a joint Turko-Russian plan?

1.- Both nations lost a vast amount of armour, weapons, vehicles, aircraft and ammo. Both sides will place orders by Russia and Turkey.

2.- This war is decreasing the attention for Nordstream 2, Belarus and Navalny. Good for Russia.

3.- This war is also decreasing the attention for the Aegean, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Turkish economy. Good for Erdogan.

4.- This is the 6th theater where Turkey and Russia are involved in.

- Syria (fighting eachother with proxys & cooperating for peace)
- Libya (fighting eachother with proxys)
- Afghanistan (cooperating for peace)
- Balkan Theater (cooperating economicly with Turkstream and Serbian-Bosnian highway project)
- Eastern Mediterranean (silently observing eachothers maneuvers and drills)

Putin and Erdogan talked on the phone, and Cavusoglu and Lavrov did also today. They said it were good talks.

Something is happening, something is planned behind closed doors. I dont know what to think.

Highly unlikely, Russia knows not to trust Turkey.

Tsavo Lion wrote:Yerevan and Baku are not satisfied with the prospect of a protracted war


The Turks r more warlike, but the Armenians & Iranians (whom Turks once controlled) r more ancient culturally & smarter.

Armenia and Azerbaijan are not rich enough to blow their economies on a war. Pride will never replace food.

This confrontation is for sure being fueled by Uncle Swine-shit meddling. Recall that there was a colour revolution in Armenia recently. The stooge who took over
likely acted to facilitate the confrontation.