Russia Defence Forum

Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


+43
d_taddei2
cheesfactory
nero
mnztr
KoTeMoRe
Tai Hai Chen
slasher
Armenian
Godric
ahmedfire
calripson
zorobabel
Mindstorm
Stealthflanker
par far
The Ottoman
Tsavo Lion
Karl Haushofer
Arrow
medo
magnumcromagnon
JohninMK
jhelb
Maximmmm
Sujoy
flamming_python
Hannibal Barca
Rodion_Romanovic
SeigSoloyvov
Walther von Oldenburg
GarryB
Regular
thegopnik
franco
AbdulhamidtheSecond
miketheterrible
kvs
PapaDragon
lyle6
Isos
nomadski
George1
littlerabbit
47 posters

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    PapaDragon
    PapaDragon


    Posts : 11683
    Points : 11751
    Join date : 2015-04-26
    Location : Fort Evil, Serbia

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  PapaDragon Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:02 pm

    slasher wrote:... Serbia...
    Putin is playing this well, make them pay until they break. Until they come to realize it is them that need Russia and not Russia that needs them. The venom and hatred piled on Russia in the past two decades should not be forgotten or lightly forgiven.

    Serbia?

    Venom? Hatred? Two decades?

    Did your auto correct screw up or something?

    Oh and Putin is coming over for the big party in couple of months



    lyle6 wrote:....F*ck them. If they want an escalation they are welcome to it. Start with calibrating the Azeri energy extraction sites...

    Isn't escalation Armenian job?

    They have the missiles, they are next door and they (should) have the motivation and interest

    And why aren't there any Tochkas stationed in Nagorno Karabah already?


    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion


    Posts : 5682
    Points : 5670
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Tsavo Lion Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:06 pm

    And while Russia does need Armenia they don't really need Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia should have known this (not even Armenia seems to need it otherwise they would have recognized it by now)
    Nagorno Karabakh is the high ground & an excellent buffer zone for the Armenia proper; it wasn't recognized by her for political & tactical reasons only. 
    Also in 2006, Russia published its 63-volume Great Encyclopedia which described Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent entity that belonged to Armenians historically, in its introduction to the region.
    Armenia kept supporting Nagorno-Karabakh militarily – without ever recognising its independence – while the breakaway region became the crucible of Armenia’s politics. Two former Armenian presidents and dozens of officials were born in Nagorno-Karabakh and fought in the war, and a sizeable portion of Armenian conscripts go to the breakaway region for military service. At conscription ceremonies, 18 to 20-year-olds sing and dance to celebrate the beginning of what they called “their patriotic duty.”
    I say let these former Soviet and Warsaw Pact states who choose to flirt with the West and spit on Russia pay dearly for their fantasy forays.
    They already paid a lot; if Russia let this conflict to escalate &/ continue, Turkey &/ the West would get a hold in its backyard & the Caspian S. so, Iran won't be sitting on the fence for too long anyway- its Azerbaijan province is bigger than the area controlled by Baku. 
    avatar
    AbdulhamidtheSecond


    Posts : 218
    Points : 220
    Join date : 2017-01-14

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:20 pm

    https://twitter.com/IlgarVOI/status/1312484301024313345?s=20

    Very moments when Azerbaijani soldiers remove occupation flag and reinstall Azerbaijani flag in the town center of Suqovuşan (occupation name Magadhiz)
    lyle6
    lyle6


    Posts : 841
    Points : 843
    Join date : 2020-09-14
    Location : Philippines

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  lyle6 Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:48 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Isn't escalation Armenian job?

    They have the missiles, they are next door and they (should) have the motivation and interest

    And why aren't there any Tochkas stationed in Nagorno Karabah already?
    They have far more restraint than I do, I'll give them that. Non-contact strikes are probably held in reserve for when they are going to get the most effect on the battlefield, unlike the Azeris who insist on showboating on low value targets. No need to target oil and gas infrastructure yet; they aren't going anywhere.

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:https://twitter.com/IlgarVOI/status/1312484301024313345?s=20

    Very moments when Azerbaijani soldiers remove occupation flag and reinstall Azerbaijani flag in the town center of Suqovuşan (occupation name Magadhiz)
    What a clown. He dragged half his flag on the dirt while trying to raise it. Poor bastard probably got taken to the back and disposed off for this offense.
    flamming_python
    flamming_python


    Posts : 5083
    Points : 5163
    Join date : 2012-01-30

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 03, 2020 11:18 pm

    Isos wrote:Russia doesn't care about NK. It doesn't recognize it anyway so they have no obligation to help Armenia.

    However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall. As long as it is a war for and in NK they won't act. But if it gets bigger than that Azeri will get some clear messages and will have to sign a cease fire.

    A bit like in Syria. They did nothing untill their bases were threatened and then bombed the shit out of everyone. Azeri are not stupid.

    If NK falls Armenia will go over to NATO the next day.

    And it doesn't matter that Turkey is in NATO and Turkey has been making use of all the same NATO training, intel, satellite reconnaisance, and of course mutual defense to keep itself safe - everywhere it has stuck its nose in, and this latest episode in Karabakh is no different.

    Without NK the Armenian motive for dependency on Russia evaporates. Which in of itself is fine, that's their decision; but it would mean further advancement of NATO with the next member being Azerbaijan, and Iran effectively being encircled from the north while Russia's south flank loses ground too.

    Added to that the humanitarian and refugee aspect, a lot of which will fall on Russia.

    And just generally the fact that you don't betray allies; it will cause your rep to nosedive. Whatever BS the Kremlin oligarchs promised to Armenia in the 90s, whatever the deal was for Russian support - Russia still has to hold up its end of the bargain even if it doesn't want to.
    Of course if Russia has an avenue for ending the conflict then it can certainly use some extra levers on Armenia (and Azerbaijan too), which it can bargain for in return for assistance.

    Armenian likes this post

    SeigSoloyvov
    SeigSoloyvov


    Posts : 2610
    Points : 2594
    Join date : 2016-04-08

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sat Oct 03, 2020 11:25 pm

    It isn't betraying allies to help them keep grounded considered occupied by everyone including Russia.

    If Russia attacks Azeri over NK Azeri will IMMEDIATELY seek to join NATO and so will any other country who was on the ropes.

    That would set off a domino effect far worse then Armenia losing NK.

    After all the standard you are asking to be set is simple, so An ally of Russia marches into another country which is what Armenia did. The country that has their land occupied attacks to retake what is legally recognized by everyone in the world as belonging to that country. But Russia attacks them for trying to retake their land. Solely on the premise, the country occupying the land is an ally of theirs.

    Yes that will look very good for Russia.
    Hannibal Barca
    Hannibal Barca


    Posts : 1377
    Points : 1389
    Join date : 2013-12-13

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Hannibal Barca Sat Oct 03, 2020 11:36 pm

    Mr. Soloyvov overwhelm us with a BS saturation attack.
    SeigSoloyvov
    SeigSoloyvov


    Posts : 2610
    Points : 2594
    Join date : 2016-04-08

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sat Oct 03, 2020 11:39 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:Mr. Soloyvov overwhelm us with a BS saturation attack.

    I need more salt for my food, can you spare me more please?.
    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion


    Posts : 5682
    Points : 5670
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Tsavo Lion Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:15 am

    If Russia attacks Azeri over NK Azeri will IMMEDIATELY seek to join NATO and so will any other country who was on the ropes.
    Ukraine (whose rebels were helped by the RF resisting reoccupation) & Georgia also have territorial disputes & won't be allowed to join anytime soon. Turkey is in NATO but been treated as an outcast even before the war in Syria, not being allowed to join the EU in any capacity. The Azeris can only dream of joining, & Russia knows it.

    https://www.rbc.ru/politics/03/10/2020/5f7067be9a794753f86fb7b5


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:33 am; edited 1 time in total
    kvs
    kvs


    Posts : 11275
    Points : 11422
    Join date : 2014-09-11
    Location : Canuckistan

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  kvs Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:30 am

    So much concern who joins NATzO. Let the losers jump on the sinking ship. Delusion is strong in them.

    slasher and Hole like this post

    thegopnik
    thegopnik


    Posts : 573
    Points : 579
    Join date : 2017-09-20

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  thegopnik Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:32 am

    Man I am sure that Russia has many smaller EW systems like Repellent-1 and a whole more EW systems. Azerbaijan takes a lot of pride in their drone strikes, I am just curious about the purchasing options of EW systems. If Repellent-1 is too expensive there are alternative cheap options like this for Armenia.

    http://www.ruselectronics.ru/news/?id=3524
    Isos
    Isos


    Posts : 8218
    Points : 8202
    Join date : 2015-11-06

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Isos Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:46 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    Isos wrote:Russia doesn't care about NK. It doesn't recognize it anyway so they have no obligation to help Armenia.

    However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall. As long as it is a war for and in NK they won't act. But if it gets bigger than that Azeri will get some clear messages and will have to sign a cease fire.

    A bit like in Syria. They did nothing untill their bases were threatened and then bombed the shit out of everyone. Azeri are not stupid.

    If NK falls Armenia will go over to NATO the next day.

    And it doesn't matter that Turkey is in NATO and Turkey has been making use of all the same NATO training, intel, satellite reconnaisance, and of course mutual defense to keep itself safe - everywhere it has stuck its nose in, and this latest episode in Karabakh is no different.

    Without NK the Armenian motive for dependency on Russia evaporates. Which in of itself is fine, that's their decision; but it would mean further advancement of NATO with the next member being Azerbaijan, and Iran effectively being encircled from the north while Russia's south flank loses ground too.

    Added to that the humanitarian and refugee aspect, a lot of which will fall on Russia.

    And just generally the fact that you don't betray allies; it will cause your rep to nosedive. Whatever BS the Kremlin oligarchs promised to Armenia in the 90s, whatever the deal was for Russian support - Russia still has to hold up its end of the bargain even if it doesn't want to.
    Of course if Russia has an avenue for ending the conflict then it can certainly use some extra levers on Armenia (and Azerbaijan too), which it can bargain for in return for assistance.

    You are wrong.

    Nato won't stop then Turkey to take all Armenia and reunite with Azerbaijan. Armenia is afraid to loose all its territory not just NK. And the only one that can protect them is Russia.

    Nato won't throw Turkey/Bosphorus for Armenia. They will just close their eyes. NK is not an issue for Russia.

    slasher likes this post

    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion


    Posts : 5682
    Points : 5670
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Tsavo Lion Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:06 am

    NK is not an issue for Russia.
    it's part of the bigger issue, namely pan-Turkism:
    https://www.mk.ru/politics/2020/10/02/satanovskiy-predrek-gibel-rossii-v-sluchae-pobedy-erdogana.html
    avatar
    AbdulhamidtheSecond


    Posts : 218
    Points : 220
    Join date : 2017-01-14

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:09 am

    Turks are not willing to remove Armenians.

    Today, there are literally zero (0) Turks living in Armenia, although YeRevan was inhabited by Revan Turks. In Turkey, Armenians have their Patriarchy, their locas, organizations and they are not expelled from their homes -unless they uprise and aggress-

    Hayko Cepkin, who is an Istanbulite Armenian, is one of the most famous singers in Turkey, I like him as well. Some of his work I like more than those of "original" Turkish singers.

    Armenia expelled everybody out who is not Armenian, but still, an Armenian country would not be an enemy if they had come to sanity.

    Had they accepted historical settlers back, this would all be over. They said no and now suffer consequences.
    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion


    Posts : 5682
    Points : 5670
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Tsavo Lion Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:21 am

    Armenia started talking about Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aewADcynfGs


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NaJZMeLtwu4
    PapaDragon
    PapaDragon


    Posts : 11683
    Points : 11751
    Join date : 2015-04-26
    Location : Fort Evil, Serbia

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  PapaDragon Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:11 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Armenia started talking about Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh

    And Russia replied that peacekeepers can only be sent with approval of both sides:

    https://ria.ru/20201004/peskov-1578166479.html



    Looks to me that Armenia wants Russia to both solve their problems for them and take the publicity heat for doing so

    And Russia simply isn't interested in that setup, stopping offensive quickly would mean attacking targets in Azerbaijan but not even Armenia is willing to do that despite supposedly being at war with them

    How the hell is Russia supposed to sugar-coat going in guns blazing to their public when even Armenians themselves aren't willing to make a pass for the end zone?

    And what if Russia does stomp on Azerbaijan and several years later some EU friendly administration in Yerevan decides to condemn such behavior because they wanted some points from Brussels?



    Message seems to be that Armenians need to start doing some heavy hitting themselves first if they want others to move in and that first and foremost current political direction and those who are responsible for it need to disappear like yesterday



    FlamingPython wrote:If NK falls Armenia will go over to NATO the next day.

    Unless someone made a whole new NATO without Turkey in it I seriously doubt it





    Maximmmm and slasher like this post

    SeigSoloyvov
    SeigSoloyvov


    Posts : 2610
    Points : 2594
    Join date : 2016-04-08

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:28 am

    Well if the Russians require both permissions from Armenia and Azeri that alone shows they have zero interest in supporting Armenia in this war.

    The question now becomes.

    A. Can Armenia hold onto NK on its own?

    B. Will Azeri completely recapture the region.

    C. Will Azeri only get parts of the region.

    Place your bids.
    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion


    Posts : 5682
    Points : 5670
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Tsavo Lion Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:52 am

    Well if the Russians require both permissions from Armenia and Azeris.. 
    that may change- they'll have to chose the lesser of 2 evils if they don't get any permission.
    SeigSoloyvov
    SeigSoloyvov


    Posts : 2610
    Points : 2594
    Join date : 2016-04-08

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:57 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    Well if the Russians require both permissions from Armenia and Azeris.. 
    that may change- they'll have to chose the lesser of 2 evils if they don't get any permission.

    Keep dreaming, not that I care if Russia does but this fantasy people seem to think will happen with Russia coming into save Armenais ass in NK is just fairy tales.

    or hey maybe Armenia will save their own ass, remains to be seen on that part. But the Russians aren't going in plain and simple
    PapaDragon
    PapaDragon


    Posts : 11683
    Points : 11751
    Join date : 2015-04-26
    Location : Fort Evil, Serbia

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  PapaDragon Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:01 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    Well if the Russians require both permissions from Armenia and Azeris.. 
    [size=12]that may change- they'll have to chose the lesser of 2 evils if they don't get any permission.
    [size]

    You haven't been paying attention, have you?

    This is Russia's way of telling Armenia that they will not be sending anything over there

    They couldn't be any clearer

    If Armenia is softballing it then there's no reason for Russia to play hardball (or to play at all)


    SeigSoloyvov likes this post

    PapaDragon
    PapaDragon


    Posts : 11683
    Points : 11751
    Join date : 2015-04-26
    Location : Fort Evil, Serbia

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  PapaDragon Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:10 am


    Come to think of it the only scenario where Russia could be hassled with this is if following happens:

    1) Armenia lights Azeri oil infrastructure on fire with missiles or airforce (all of it, every last thing, Azerbaijan is no longer a petrostate)

    2) Azerbaijan goes in full bore on Armenia proper

    3) Turkey may or may not decide to try and get involved which will not matter anyway because...

    4) Azeri attack on Armenians soil triggers CSTO assistance from Russia, Azerbaijan is now out of the game and Turks won't be sticking their dicks into that blender

    5) Russia now de facto owns Armenia


    Keep in mind that even this would still be a long shot for Armenia to get Russia involved, it would depend on how hard Russia wants Azeri oil industry gone and I seriously doubt they care nearly close enough for that

    But this is pretty much the only hail Mary pass Armenia has left if they don't stop this offensive




    SeigSoloyvov
    SeigSoloyvov


    Posts : 2610
    Points : 2594
    Join date : 2016-04-08

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:20 am

    The problem with that theory is if Armenia attacks Azeri first in that manner, the return attack may just be viewed as that a response.

    If that happened and Azeri only did it once in return Russia might still not be willing, Azeri would need to pound Armenia multiple times.

    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion


    Posts : 5682
    Points : 5670
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Tsavo Lion Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:31 am

    Putin &/ Iran may just wait till both Azeri & Armenian regimes get destabilized or fall before installing his own men there who would then stop the fighting. They can also form their gov's in exile from the expatriates living in Russia &/ Iran. Why not? The Georgian president came from France.
    PapaDragon
    PapaDragon


    Posts : 11683
    Points : 11751
    Join date : 2015-04-26
    Location : Fort Evil, Serbia

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  PapaDragon Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:30 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:The problem with that theory is if Armenia attacks Azeri first in that manner, the return attack may just be viewed as that a response.

    If that happened and Azeri only did it once in return Russia might still not be willing, Azeri would need to pound Armenia multiple times.

    I did say that it's a hail Mary pass

    And as I said as well it hinges on Russia actually seeing benefits for themselves in it, if they were to see it then any hit big enough by Azerbaijan on Armenia is enough, no need for repeats (and roasting their oil infrastructure and whole present and future economy with it will definitely result in sizeable retaliation)

    You would have colossal local old school state-on-state war of extermination and Russia ending it even by picking sides would be seen as lesser of two evils

    But currently it would be colossal gamble with pretty low odds of paying off for Armenia



    All this would not have happened had Armenians kept their eyes on the ball and not started torching bridges with their biggest security guarantor

    I honestly don't know what was going through their heads, like Russians are right there in the spitting distance and they had already kept them in one piece for 30 years but still they decided to experiment with their own physical existence






    slasher likes this post

    kvs
    kvs


    Posts : 11275
    Points : 11422
    Join date : 2014-09-11
    Location : Canuckistan

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  kvs Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:58 am

    Russia sitting back and letting both sides get tired is the best possible route. WWI demonstrated what happens when there is knee-jerk reaction
    in support of "allies". Two bit countries should never be allowed to set the stage for world wars.

    slasher likes this post


    Sponsored content


    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 12 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:31 pm