2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

And while Russia does need Armenia they don't really need Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia should have known this (not even Armenia seems to need it otherwise they would have recognized it by now)

Nagorno Karabakh is the high ground & an excellent buffer zone for the Armenia proper; it wasn't recognized by her for political & tactical reasons only. 
Also in 2006, Russia published its 63-volume Great Encyclopedia which described Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent entity that belonged to Armenians historically, in its introduction to the region.
Armenia kept supporting Nagorno-Karabakh militarily – without ever recognising its independence – while the breakaway region became the crucible of Armenia’s politics. Two former Armenian presidents and dozens of officials were born in Nagorno-Karabakh and fought in the war, and a sizeable portion of Armenian conscripts go to the breakaway region for military service. At conscription ceremonies, 18 to 20-year-olds sing and dance to celebrate the beginning of what they called “their patriotic duty.”

I say let these former Soviet and Warsaw Pact states who choose to flirt with the West and spit on Russia pay dearly for their fantasy forays.

They already paid a lot; if Russia let this conflict to escalate &/ continue, Turkey &/ the West would get a hold in its backyard & the Caspian S. so, Iran won't be sitting on the fence for too long anyway- its Azerbaijan province is bigger than the area controlled by Baku. 

https://twitter.com/IlgarVOI/status/1312484301024313345?s=20

Very moments when Azerbaijani soldiers remove occupation flag and reinstall Azerbaijani flag in the town center of Suqovuşan (occupation name Magadhiz)

PapaDragon wrote:
Isn't escalation Armenian job?

They have the missiles, they are next door and they (should) have the motivation and interest

And why aren't there any Tochkas stationed in Nagorno Karabah already?

They have far more restraint than I do, I'll give them that. Non-contact strikes are probably held in reserve for when they are going to get the most effect on the battlefield, unlike the Azeris who insist on showboating on low value targets. No need to target oil and gas infrastructure yet; they aren't going anywhere.

AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:https://twitter.com/IlgarVOI/status/1312484301024313345?s=20

Very moments when Azerbaijani soldiers remove occupation flag and reinstall Azerbaijani flag in the town center of Suqovuşan (occupation name Magadhiz)

What a clown. He dragged half his flag on the dirt while trying to raise it. Poor bastard probably got taken to the back and disposed off for this offense.

Isos wrote:Russia doesn't care about NK. It doesn't recognize it anyway so they have no obligation to help Armenia.

However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall. As long as it is a war for and in NK they won't act. But if it gets bigger than that Azeri will get some clear messages and will have to sign a cease fire.

A bit like in Syria. They did nothing untill their bases were threatened and then bombed the shit out of everyone. Azeri are not stupid.

If NK falls Armenia will go over to NATO the next day.

And it doesn't matter that Turkey is in NATO and Turkey has been making use of all the same NATO training, intel, satellite reconnaisance, and of course mutual defense to keep itself safe - everywhere it has stuck its nose in, and this latest episode in Karabakh is no different.

Without NK the Armenian motive for dependency on Russia evaporates. Which in of itself is fine, that's their decision; but it would mean further advancement of NATO with the next member being Azerbaijan, and Iran effectively being encircled from the north while Russia's south flank loses ground too.

Added to that the humanitarian and refugee aspect, a lot of which will fall on Russia.

And just generally the fact that you don't betray allies; it will cause your rep to nosedive. Whatever BS the Kremlin oligarchs promised to Armenia in the 90s, whatever the deal was for Russian support - Russia still has to hold up its end of the bargain even if it doesn't want to.
Of course if Russia has an avenue for ending the conflict then it can certainly use some extra levers on Armenia (and Azerbaijan too), which it can bargain for in return for assistance.

It isn't betraying allies to help them keep grounded considered occupied by everyone including Russia.

If Russia attacks Azeri over NK Azeri will IMMEDIATELY seek to join NATO and so will any other country who was on the ropes.

That would set off a domino effect far worse then Armenia losing NK.

After all the standard you are asking to be set is simple, so An ally of Russia marches into another country which is what Armenia did. The country that has their land occupied attacks to retake what is legally recognized by everyone in the world as belonging to that country. But Russia attacks them for trying to retake their land. Solely on the premise, the country occupying the land is an ally of theirs.

Yes that will look very good for Russia.

Mr. Soloyvov overwhelm us with a BS saturation attack.

Hannibal Barca wrote:Mr. Soloyvov overwhelm us with a BS saturation attack.

I need more salt for my food, can you spare me more please?.

If Russia attacks Azeri over NK Azeri will IMMEDIATELY seek to join NATO and so will any other country who was on the ropes.

Ukraine (whose rebels were helped by the RF resisting reoccupation) & Georgia also have territorial disputes & won't be allowed to join anytime soon. Turkey is in NATO but been treated as an outcast even before the war in Syria, not being allowed to join the EU in any capacity. The Azeris can only dream of joining, & Russia knows it.

https://www.rbc.ru/politics/03/10/2020/5f7067be9a794753f86fb7b5

So much concern who joins NATzO. Let the losers jump on the sinking ship. Delusion is strong in them.

Man I am sure that Russia has many smaller EW systems like Repellent-1 and a whole more EW systems. Azerbaijan takes a lot of pride in their drone strikes, I am just curious about the purchasing options of EW systems. If Repellent-1 is too expensive there are alternative cheap options like this for Armenia.

http://www.ruselectronics.ru/news/?id=3524

flamming_python wrote:

Isos wrote:Russia doesn't care about NK. It doesn't recognize it anyway so they have no obligation to help Armenia.

However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall. As long as it is a war for and in NK they won't act. But if it gets bigger than that Azeri will get some clear messages and will have to sign a cease fire.

A bit like in Syria. They did nothing untill their bases were threatened and then bombed the shit out of everyone. Azeri are not stupid.

If NK falls Armenia will go over to NATO the next day.

And it doesn't matter that Turkey is in NATO and Turkey has been making use of all the same NATO training, intel, satellite reconnaisance, and of course mutual defense to keep itself safe - everywhere it has stuck its nose in, and this latest episode in Karabakh is no different.

Without NK the Armenian motive for dependency on Russia evaporates. Which in of itself is fine, that's their decision; but it would mean further advancement of NATO with the next member being Azerbaijan, and Iran effectively being encircled from the north while Russia's south flank loses ground too.

Added to that the humanitarian and refugee aspect, a lot of which will fall on Russia.

And just generally the fact that you don't betray allies; it will cause your rep to nosedive. Whatever BS the Kremlin oligarchs promised to Armenia in the 90s, whatever the deal was for Russian support - Russia still has to hold up its end of the bargain even if it doesn't want to.
Of course if Russia has an avenue for ending the conflict then it can certainly use some extra levers on Armenia (and Azerbaijan too), which it can bargain for in return for assistance.

You are wrong.

Nato won't stop then Turkey to take all Armenia and reunite with Azerbaijan. Armenia is afraid to loose all its territory not just NK. And the only one that can protect them is Russia.

Nato won't throw Turkey/Bosphorus for Armenia. They will just close their eyes. NK is not an issue for Russia.

NK is not an issue for Russia.

it's part of the bigger issue, namely pan-Turkism:
https://www.mk.ru/politics/2020/10/02/satanovskiy-predrek-gibel-rossii-v-sluchae-pobedy-erdogana.html

Turks are not willing to remove Armenians.

Today, there are literally zero (0) Turks living in Armenia, although YeRevan was inhabited by Revan Turks. In Turkey, Armenians have their Patriarchy, their locas, organizations and they are not expelled from their homes -unless they uprise and aggress-

Hayko Cepkin, who is an Istanbulite Armenian, is one of the most famous singers in Turkey, I like him as well. Some of his work I like more than those of "original" Turkish singers.

Armenia expelled everybody out who is not Armenian, but still, an Armenian country would not be an enemy if they had come to sanity.

Had they accepted historical settlers back, this would all be over. They said no and now suffer consequences.

Armenia started talking about Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aewADcynfGs


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NaJZMeLtwu4

Well if the Russians require both permissions from Armenia and Azeri that alone shows they have zero interest in supporting Armenia in this war.

The question now becomes.

A. Can Armenia hold onto NK on its own?

B. Will Azeri completely recapture the region.

C. Will Azeri only get parts of the region.

Place your bids.

Well if the Russians require both permissions from Armenia and Azeris.. 

that may change- they'll have to chose the lesser of 2 evils if they don't get any permission.

Tsavo Lion wrote:

Well if the Russians require both permissions from Armenia and Azeris.. 

that may change- they'll have to chose the lesser of 2 evils if they don't get any permission.

Keep dreaming, not that I care if Russia does but this fantasy people seem to think will happen with Russia coming into save Armenais ass in NK is just fairy tales.

or hey maybe Armenia will save their own ass, remains to be seen on that part. But the Russians aren't going in plain and simple

The problem with that theory is if Armenia attacks Azeri first in that manner, the return attack may just be viewed as that a response.

If that happened and Azeri only did it once in return Russia might still not be willing, Azeri would need to pound Armenia multiple times.

Putin &/ Iran may just wait till both Azeri & Armenian regimes get destabilized or fall before installing his own men there who would then stop the fighting. They can also form their gov's in exile from the expatriates living in Russia &/ Iran. Why not? The Georgian president came from France.

Russia sitting back and letting both sides get tired is the best possible route. WWI demonstrated what happens when there is knee-jerk reaction
in support of "allies". Two bit countries should never be allowed to set the stage for world wars.