Isos wrote:Russia doesn't care about NK. It doesn't recognize it anyway so they have no obligation to help Armenia.
However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall. As long as it is a war for and in NK they won't act. But if it gets bigger than that Azeri will get some clear messages and will have to sign a cease fire.
A bit like in Syria. They did nothing untill their bases were threatened and then bombed the shit out of everyone. Azeri are not stupid.
If NK falls Armenia will go over to NATO the next day.
And it doesn't matter that Turkey is in NATO and Turkey has been making use of all the same NATO training, intel, satellite reconnaisance, and of course mutual defense to keep itself safe - everywhere it has stuck its nose in, and this latest episode in Karabakh is no different.
Without NK the Armenian motive for dependency on Russia evaporates. Which in of itself is fine, that's their decision; but it would mean further advancement of NATO with the next member being Azerbaijan, and Iran effectively being encircled from the north while Russia's south flank loses ground too.
Added to that the humanitarian and refugee aspect, a lot of which will fall on Russia.
And just generally the fact that you don't betray allies; it will cause your rep to nosedive. Whatever BS the Kremlin oligarchs promised to Armenia in the 90s, whatever the deal was for Russian support - Russia still has to hold up its end of the bargain even if it doesn't want to.
Of course if Russia has an avenue for ending the conflict then it can certainly use some extra levers on Armenia (and Azerbaijan too), which it can bargain for in return for assistance.