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    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    zorobabel
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    Post  zorobabel Sat Oct 03, 2020 4:36 am

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Armenia was definitely not ready for this which is kinda baffling considering that Azerbaijan hasn't been keeping it a secret that they are buying arms by the boatload

    Plus they had that flare up here several years ago when Azeris already showed that they are not shy about using new toys

    They should have been grabbing Russian (or anyone's) weapons whenever they could

    And they also managed to alienate Russia in between with the whole EU shtick (they will NEVER get to EU, nobody from that neighborhood will)

    I know they don't have piles of cash but they could have just told Russia that they can set up shop and build whatever sized military base they want and park whatever they want there in exchange for weapons and protection

    It would have been one hell of a tripwire and deterrence

    And crazy part is that not even Armenia recognizes Nagorno Karabah as independent, legally it's not even a disputed territory

    How do they expect anyone to cover for them when they don't even do basic stuff?

    Word on the street is that Russia will assist them at later point (scare Azeris into backing off to be more precise lest they want those petroleum wells lit up) but are in no hurry to do it yet and are currently hammering out details of exactly how much it will cost Armenia (Luka-style and yes, it will definitely cost both in territory lost to Azeris and in stuff Russia will want)
    I agree, but I don't know. Armenians were pretty retarded for flouting with a pro-Western stance. Maybe in the future there can be trials for those who held anti-Russian slogans or signs. That said, they seem to be fighting like crazy, even though they are taking heavy losses from drone attacks. I'm honestly shocked that they seem to have checked the offensive.

    I do agree, however, that Armenia should have been prepared for these drone attacks after the 2018 Azerbaijani offensive.
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Sat Oct 03, 2020 5:52 am

    What's the surprise here? When you're leaders attempt to sit in 2 chairs at one time, their bound to fall flat on their ass!

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    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:58 am

    Well Trumpy flumpy got covid, and went to hospital. I don't think so. In the past also, at times when leaders needed a prolonged face to face in private, they also got sick, and disappeared into an island in the middle of Pacific Ocean.

    If I am right, you won't see many other leaders in public, for about three days. The thing is, it never works. And things get worse afterwards.

    The Azeri position, as regards a return to previous map of mixed populations will not work. Not that I think , they genuinely plan for this outcome. Their leader said, that after the recapture of lost territory  by Azeris, that both Armenians and Azeris will live in peace, side by side. He also confirmed that Armenians had turned Mosques into places where they keep pigs!  Not to mention that the ongoing conflict, is not going to endear the two populations, towards each other.

    In reality, if Azeris recapture the old territories,  and Armenians are then surrounded, then there will be ethnic conflict. And the weaker of the two, the Armenians, will have to be entirely displaced. A kind of ethnic cleansing. The comments of Azeri leader, are therefore contradictory. There can be no peace and war, at the same time.

    The only solution, is separation of two communities. Drawing a line down the middle of this territory. This means moving and resettling  some populations. Or as few as possible, if carefully planned. Now watch Trumpy flumpy, come back from " covid". In about three days. Another miracle cure, with no long term effects....?
    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:23 am

    nomadski wrote:Well Trumpy flumpy got covid, and went to hospital. I don't think so. In the past also, at times when leaders needed a prolonged face to face in private, they also got sick, and disappeared into an island in the middle of Pacific Ocean.

    If I am right, you won't see many other leaders in public, for about three days. The thing is, it never works. And things get worse afterwards.

    The Azeri position, as regards a return to previous map of mixed populations will not work. Not that I think , they genuinely plan for this outcome. Their leader said, that after the recapture of lost territory  by Azeris, that both Armenians and Azeris will live in peace, side by side. He also confirmed that Armenians had turned Mosques into places where they keep pigs!  Not to mention that the ongoing conflict, is not going to endear the two populations, towards each other.

    In reality, if Azeris recapture the old territories,  and Armenians are then surrounded, then there will be ethnic conflict. And the weaker of the two, the Armenians, will have to be entirely displaced. A kind of ethnic cleansing. The comments of Azeri leader, are therefore contradictory. There can be no peace and war, at the same time.

    The only solution, is separation of two communities. Drawing a line down the middle of this territory. This means moving and resettling  some populations.  Or as few as possible, if carefully planned. Now watch Trumpy flumpy, come back from " covid". In about three days. Another miracle cure, with no long term effects....?

    I believe that the only long term solution there is removing turkish influence and eventually making Azerbaigian a joint russian-iranian protectorate (or even more extremely, making the north part of the country (including Baku)  a republic of the russian Federation and the southern part an iranian province.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:26 am

    Two wrongs don't make a right.

    Just pointing out the inedible western hypocrisy... at the moment the Azeri are in the wrong because they are using violence to get their way... the obvious problem with that is two fold... it leaves things open for the other side to do exactly the same when they are stronger, and it also assumes you have the strongest friends to call on when things go bad.

    There needs to be some sort of land swapping deal that both sides are happy with and neither was forced to sign on threat of getting wiped out by the other... but that never happens.

    I'm all for a peaceful resolution, return of displaced and refugees, and gradual handover to Azerbaijan with guarantees and under UN auspices

    The chance for peaceful resolution has passed... they have tried to take it by force... that should never be rewarded...

    The old UN resolutions are useless.

    New ones aren't much good either...

    The argument that Armenia had to seize the land to protect people is absurd.

    Azeri did not have guns to their heads, the people could have moved into Armenia considering its right next door.

    The Argument that the Serbs were slaughtering the Kosovo Albanians is absurd, the Albanians in Kosovo could have moved back to Albania considering it is right next door...

    so a country has the right to annex parts of another country over an ethnic group, give me a break

    So when does Serbia get Kosovo back then?

    If Armenia is so worried about those people, then they can tell Azeri. They want the land that is all.

    So the American Indians and Mexicans can just tell Americans to fuck off back to where they came from because they want their land back... I am surprised it is so easy...

    "We will mass evacuate anyone who wants to leave first and after that is complete we will hand over the territory, so let's stop shooting each other".

    The first Mexican who comes to your door with a gun to tell you they started this little war to get their land back will get shot in the face.... don't be such an idiot.

    Also if someone wants to bring up Kosovo oh sure, but I better not see those same people complaining say about the kurds wanting to do the same thing or any other situation.

    The Kurds are another fine example.... as an ethnic group are they not entitled to create a new country on the lands they have lived for for thousands of years... you do realise the countries we know of in this entire area didn't exist at the start of the 1900s...

    These borders that seem to be set in stone are not as old as most of the buildings in the region.

    If your going to sit there and say its okay for Armenia to do this under that guise then don't be a hypocrite and deny others the same right because you don't like it.

    The fact is that they did not invade, they already lived there and why should they become part of another country just because of their location on some map?

    Pre WWI maps of the region show no countries called Saudi Arabia or Iraq or Kuwaite... these are western creations post WWI.

    Man, that footage of the 32 ambushed Azerbaijani soldiers is rough. Looks like they were caught completely off guard. Some of them look like they were eating.

    War is no way to sort out these sorts of things...

    The funny thing is that here is SS telling us about the sacredness of borders... after an illegal tour of Syria helping a group of people fight against its government to become a separate country or to commit sedition.

    Self-determination is fine and all, the only thing is people better apply the same standard to all regardless if they like it to not.

    Awww, Grow Up. You know as well as we know.... might makes right and anything else can go whinge and moan on an internet forum... lets call it a unique case... and ignore reality or ethics or morals...


    To pull Russia back into the Armenia-Azerbaijan drama means turning Moscow’s attention towards the Caucasus so there’s more Turkish freedom of action in other theaters – in the Eastern Mediterranean versus Greece, in Syria, in Libya. Ankara – foolishly – is engaged in simultaneous wars on several fronts, and with virtually no allies.

    Russia can focus on more than one thing at a time, to suggest they can't is just hopeful thinking... A turkish invasion of Armenia would be grounds for those Armenian missiles to start targeting Turkish assets and to perhaps start encouraging Kurdish separatism in Turkey...

    Technology is only good as the ones operating it you could have the best system in the world operated by morons defeated by the worst system operated by skilled people.

    Saudi Arabia is proof enough of that...

    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Sat Oct 03, 2020 11:26 am

    @ Rodion

    Long term solutions, if we are to speak absolutely from neutral position. Is to recognise , what territories are natural states or countries. And allow for their formation. It is not without reason, that many modern states in Africa, are failed states. Since they are not developed  over long term. With artificial borders. One way of finding position of borders, is to draw lines to represent old borders  on a map. The longevity of a border, could be represented by the intensity of colour. Very short term borders that also formed a long time ago, would also be fainter. If we did this, we get a very different picture of the world. In the case of caucases, one such border are the caucases mountains. Defining the northern boundary. A similar situation to the Alps in northern Italy.

    @ GarryB

    ".... The chance for peaceful resolution has passed... they have tried to take it by force... that should never be rewarded..."

    I would say, that we can describe the present situation as war. In war, there is always a stronger side and a weaker side. The weaker side, is not simply the one with a smaller population. But the one with the greatest diminishing population. Such as Palestinians or Houtis . We have to help the weak, against the strong. Here, I think it means, helping  with defensive capability. Or if not possible, say we can not intercept every artillery shell, with S300. Then supplying artillery to weaker side. Or if easier, remove or stop offensive capability of stronger side. By say a blockade against long range and heavy Rockets, used against civilians. Otherwise we see ethnic cleansing. To have peace, first we must stop war.
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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Sat Oct 03, 2020 12:43 pm

    https://twitter.com/TSKMap/status/1312323251151011840?s=20

    Armenian Invader army is collapsing, in the video above, dead Armenian soldier seen chained to the trench to prevent escape.

    Today Azerbaijan TB2 operators continued to strike Armenian positions and inflicting heavy losses.

    Armenian leadership should come to insanity or they will be annihilated.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Sat Oct 03, 2020 12:47 pm

    This is probably the biggest, most stupid BS I have ever seen.

    No, more like you dumb inbreds chained a dead body to make it look like this for other inbreds to believe it.

    Stupidity is infinite
    Armenian
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    Post  Armenian Sat Oct 03, 2020 12:51 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:https://twitter.com/TSKMap/status/1312323251151011840?s=20

    Armenian Invader army is collapsing, in the video above, dead Armenian soldier seen chained to the trench to prevent escape.

    Today Azerbaijan TB2 operators continued to strike Armenian positions and inflicting heavy losses.

    Armenian leadership should come to insanity or they will be annihilated.

    Chaining dead soldider and create a BS story for propoganda? That's quite low even for your standards.

    I find it funny how years and years after saying that Azerbaijani army can capture Karabakh in 24 hours, they are unable to make any significant advance 1 week later, with direct Turkish military support and Jihadists on the ground.

    Today 3 million Armenia is fighting against 80 million Turkey and 10 million Azerbaijan. Odds were against Armenia in 90s as well but we won.

    We will win again, not for only Armenians but for whole region.

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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:03 pm

    You can deceive yourself as much as you want, the reality on the ground is quite different.

    Agdam and Fuzuli is already on the crosshairs and Xankendi on artillery range. First you will die in hands of MAM L en masse, then soldiers will step forward.

    Your soldiers die before seeing enemy.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:05 pm

    I suspect Putin will end this conflict, if and when, Pashinyan comes to kiss his ass and agree to lower co-operation with the EU, NATO to the same level as Russia. In other words agree to all conditions and become a puppet. And that may require him to agree to some kind of Putin-proposed peace plan territory swap too, most of NKR in return for giving up the other Azeri territories

    Then Russia will confont Turkey with all EW, air-defense means, and supply the Armenians openly, introduce Russian advisers into the theatre, and the Azeri-Erdogan side will be forced to come to terms

    Pashinyan is currently not desperate enough though
    The one unknown factor in all this is the Armenian army and its people themselves. If they somehow manage to counter the Turk drone warfare and fight off the invasion by convention and guerilla means, with only the current low-level Russian support, then Armenia will be able to have its cake and eat it too.
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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:13 pm

    Russian forces has no foothold like they have in Syria. Armenia has only opening through Iran, and I doubt Iran would engage in fight that active, as Tabriz and other Southern Azerbaijani cities are remaining tense.

    I had a Southern azerbaijani collegue group jn university and all their hatred was against Iranian regime, like 25 million others in Iran.
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:18 pm

    GarryB wrote:

    The chance for peaceful resolution has passed... they have tried to take it by force... that should never be rewarded...


    The problem is that any taking of territory by either side in this war will entail mass ethnic cleansing
    There is no other way for either side to secure anything, the Azerbaijani side in this instance, without a population replacement.

    Because of this whole war in the early 90s Russia was hit with a ton of refugees. The same Azeris, Armenians and also Sunni Kurds from the Azeri territories in between NKR and Armenia which Armenia took control of.

    Right now we're looking at a humanitarian disaster if the Azeris/Turks fulfill their objectives.

    So we can't really evaluate this war in the same way as say Sri Lanka retaking its territory from an ethnic minority rebel group, or Russia retaking Chechnya - because in those instances the states involved actually fulfilled their functions as civilized states albeit still pretty bloodily, but nevertheless focused their energy just on tackling the armed militants themselves.

    The first thing that Russia needs to do, if/when it decides to become more deeply involved, is to minimize Erdogan's role by neutralizing Turkish strategy and and interfering with its technology.
    I already mentioned how to get leverage over Armenia; the next step after that will be to gain leverage over Aliyev. And then Russia will have enough of a foothold to force a peace plan and some sort of territory swap.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:24 pm; edited 2 times in total

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:19 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:Russian forces has no foothold like they have in Syria. Armenia has only opening through Iran, and I doubt Iran would engage in fight that active, as Tabriz and other Southern Azerbaijani cities are remaining tense.

    I had a Southern azerbaijani collegue group jn university and all their hatred was against Iranian regime, like 25 million others in Iran.

    Military access through Iran is really all that Russia needs. And if land is a problem, Russia can always come in by air. So far at least, both have been given, and I doubt Iran is pleased with Erdogan's meddling and the protests in Tabriz as a result.

    At the moment all Turk resupply is done through Georgia. Russia has no leverage over this, but it will need to form a similar constant logistics route through Iran; it has the means.

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    medo
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    Post  medo Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:22 pm

    https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1312332760808411136

    Armenian army in Artzakh inflict heavy losses to Azerbaijani army, which is now retreating.

    https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1312317229573255168

    Iranians watching destruction of Azerbaijani army positions over the border.
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:30 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:You can deceive yourself as much as you want, the reality on the ground is quite different.

    Agdam and Fuzuli is already on the crosshairs and Xankendi on artillery range. First you will die in hands of MAM L en masse, then soldiers will step forward.

    Your soldiers die before seeing enemy.

    Yet the Azeri's are falling back on the ground and taking heavy losses....

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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:41 pm

    And all the proof of that is some low resolution crap videos.

    Here is a video from front, not with lies, but with destroyed Armenian vehicles.

    https://youtu.be/e0WfcXktoYM
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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:53 pm

    https://twitter.com/cavidaga/status/1312316562511212545?s=20

    There is a saying you know,

    Pravda crap

    Lol
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    Post  Isos Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:55 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:Russian forces has no foothold like they have in Syria. Armenia has only opening through Iran, and I doubt Iran would engage in fight that active, as Tabriz and other Southern Azerbaijani cities are remaining tense.

    I had a Southern azerbaijani collegue group jn university and all their hatred was against Iranian regime, like 25 million others in Iran.

    Russia shares a border with Azerbaijanand can cut their supply lines in 2 hours. They also have hundreds of toshka U they just replaced by Iskander that they could use to get ride of.

    They don't need to hit from Armenia.

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    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Sat Oct 03, 2020 2:08 pm

    So Georgian clowns claiming neutrality are now giving police escort for Turkish military aid for the Azeri's:
    https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1312338128544309248

    When the Turks eventually reconquer these retarded South-Eastern Eupornean toilets (like Bulgaria and Georgia) no ones going to come to their aid to save these jackasses...and the great irony is the leadership for Georgia and Armenia are both pro-EU/US Soros backed useful idiot politicians. It goes to show there's no unity between these Soros meat puppets!

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    Post  lyle6 Sat Oct 03, 2020 2:47 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:And all the proof of that is some low resolution crap videos.

    Here is a video from front, not with lies, but with destroyed Armenian vehicles.

    https://youtu.be/e0WfcXktoYM
    I've actually watched some bits and to any observer its plain to see that Azerbaijan and Turkey are losing, and badly. All those sullen and crestfallen faces in front of the camera and just that overall posture and tone really hammers that point home. Baku Bob is no better in this regard. Find some better actors next time.

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    Post  par far Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:37 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:So Georgian clowns claiming neutrality are now giving police escort for Turkish military aid for the Azeri's:
    https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1312338128544309248

    When the Turks eventually reconquer these retarded South-Eastern Eupornean toilets (like Bulgaria and Georgia) no ones going to come to their aid to save these jackasses...and the great irony is the leadership for Georgia and Armenia are both pro-EU/US Soros backed useful idiot politicians. It goes to show there's no unity between these Soros meat puppets!


    I think Russia has a chance to replace the Pro NATO puppet in Armenia.
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 03, 2020 4:08 pm

    par far wrote:
    magnumcromagnon wrote:So Georgian clowns claiming neutrality are now giving police escort for Turkish military aid for the Azeri's:
    https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1312338128544309248

    When the Turks eventually reconquer these retarded South-Eastern Eupornean toilets (like Bulgaria and Georgia) no ones going to come to their aid to save these jackasses...and the great irony is the leadership for Georgia and Armenia are both pro-EU/US Soros backed useful idiot politicians. It goes to show there's no unity between these Soros meat puppets!


    I think Russia has a chance to replace the Pro NATO puppet in Armenia.

    He's going to have to step aside if he wants Russia's help I suspect

    But it's the Armenian people's choice; if they can handle this on their own with only covert and low-key Russian help then go for it and defend your independence.

    I don't really like Putin's approach but it does make sense. If he doesn't have someone dependent on him he won't be able to push through a peace plan and the whole conflict will just go on forever.
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    Post  PapaDragon Sat Oct 03, 2020 4:25 pm

    flamming_python wrote:...If they somehow manage to counter the Turk drone warfare and fight off the invasion by convention and guerilla means, with only the current low-level Russian support, then Armenia will be able to have its cake and eat it too.

    That cake is costing them a lot of meat though



    magnumcromagnon wrote:So Georgian clowns claiming neutrality are now giving police escort for Turkish military aid for the Azeri's:
    https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1312338128544309248

    I really have to ask what were relations between Georgia and Armenia like before this?

    I mean they couldn't have been too friendly considering that Georgians are totally throwing them under the bus so openly

    And what are the prospects now? I expect some awkward moments (including with immigrant communities in​ Russia)



    Armenia says they are ready to negotiate

    http://classic.newsru.com/world/02oct2020/arm_peregovor.html



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    Post  JohninMK Sat Oct 03, 2020 4:27 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    I don't really like Putin's approach but it does make sense. If he doesn't have someone dependent on him he won't be able to push through a peace plan and the whole conflict will just go on forever.

    In some ways it could be a bit like Russia's support in Donbass, nothing that could actually be pinned on them but everyone knew they were there.

    But, as I suggested a couple of days ago, an Iskander strike on a bit of minor feeder pipeline, especially the gas line to Turkey, could have them round the negotiating table before you could blink.

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