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    Syrian War: News #22

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sun Apr 25, 2021 11:09 am

    When guidance is cut, missile fly ballistically, so its fly path was predictable after missing the plane.

    Is it ballistic though... does it shut down the engine and then just fall, or does it just keep flying till the fuel runs out and then falls?
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Sun Apr 25, 2021 11:21 am

    https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2021/04/25/2491159/iran-s-top-general-warns-israel-to-expect-tough-response-from-resistance-front

    Better approach. However attacker together with general details of injuries or deaths or damage to all sides, should be told to the PEOPLE . No more cover up. No need for officials to do " ANALYSIS" or decide. The people analyse. They decide. THEY DECIDE....... Officials do what they are told by the people ( parliament). They declare war. They accept defeat or victory. You are responsible to supply FACTS. FACTS ONLY.
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:28 pm

    nomadski wrote:If it was not for Iranian complacency and Russian caution in Syria, in the first place, then escalation and killing and continued bombardment by Usraelis in Syria and.... Would have not happened.

    I understand why the Usraelis feel suffocated. All around they see enemies. Because they are not just a displaced people. But also a misplaced people. No cure for their sickness, other than death or emigration.
    Unless you have a death wish you do not provoke a stronger enemy, you wait until you have gained sufficient strength to at least make that enemy think. I'd say that Syria/Russia/Iran have played a pretty astute game, being much better placed now than 5 years ago. That is the game now playing out.

    I'm sorry but the Israelis (or to be more accurate, the Zionists) made their bed, now they can lie in it. Many moons ago they made a few strategic decisions, war not peace with their neighbours, expand as much as possible, implement apartheid, infiltrate the US political system for financial and military gain. They have been amazingly successful in all four areas but it had the consequences we now see writ large.

    In particular, the now unstoppable rise of Iran, once the home of a very large Jewish diaspora, that they have succeeded, again very successfully, in turning into an implacable foe. As a response they are now moving to support the despotic regimes in the Arabian peninsular as their next, increasingly desperate, throw of the dice.

    Yet again, for the umpteenth time in history, Syria is again turning into the anvil. Hence the US and Turkish activity in the country and the slowly increasing confidence and reactions of the Syrians. Putin told Israel that Syrian forces were off the Russian AD leash and the IAF ignored it. I suspect that the IAF have no doubt now that their aircraft, if they strike Syria, will be pursued regardless of who's airspace they are in. They know that, if they keep pushing, the S-300 will come off the leash as well upping the anti. We get an indication from reports that Iran may be upgrading SyAF AD so will be after some real world practice.

    Israel is very aware that they are in a real bind now. Their confidence in their AD has just been shattered. If the SyAF down say an F-15 in Israel what do they do? Take it on the chin or heavy response? If the latter do they get a barrage of SAMs and SSM in response? Before they know it Hamas and Hezbollah will have fingers twitching on their fire buttons.

    They sowed the seed now they live in fear of the whirlwind.

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:30 pm

    nomadski wrote:Better approach. However attacker together with general details of injuries or deaths or damage  to all sides, should be told to the PEOPLE . No more cover up. No need for officials to do " ANALYSIS" or decide. The people analyse. They decide. THEY DECIDE....... Officials do what they are told by the people ( parliament). They declare war. They accept defeat or victory. You are responsible to supply FACTS. FACTS ONLY.

    Dream on.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:14 pm

    @ johninmk


    ".... Unless you have a death wish you do not provoke a stronger enemy, you wait until you have gained sufficient strength to at least make that enemy think....."

    I have thought about this. And you are right, in the sense of thinking about balance of forces. But an enemy may not give you the luxury of timed response. Then what?  Take it on the chin because we do not have X, Y, or Z. Well the enemy by attacking will make sure that we do not get these anyway. So we are best to go to war when we are at the highest possible readiness. Which for Iran is now. Not next year.

    Iran's power will not be growing now, with all the sanctions. No big purchase of fighter aircraft or their manufacture in any significant number. Army probably can not get any stronger. Navy expansion needs decades and massive investment, not displayed by available numbers. Missile force is at maximum. No Nukes because of internal politics. Diplomacy is at dead-end. While there is actual physical damage to infrastructure by attacks, and even worse the continuous psychological damage to morale by attacks not properly responded to.

    ".... Dream on....." ......... Yup..... The fog of war and all that.

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:54 pm

    nomadski wrote:
    Iran's power will not be growing now, with all the sanctions. No big purchase of fighter aircraft or their manufacture in any significant number. Army probably can not get any stronger. Navy expansion needs decades and massive investment, not displayed by available numbers. Missile force is at maximum. No Nukes because of internal politics. Diplomacy is at dead-end. While there is actual physical damage to infrastructure by attacks, and even worse the continuous psychological damage to morale by attacks not properly responded to.
    You are far too pessimistic. Iran is getting stronger all the time, in part due to investing in making its friends stronger. I have no doubt that an oil for fighters deal is underway. The days when Israel could attack are now gone.

    Also re the tanker fire, looks like a welding screw up.

    Tasnim News Agency
    @Tasnimnews_EN
    · 13h
    A fire that erupted on an oil tanker off #Syria’s coast had not been caused by a military attack, but broke out due to incautiousness and lack of safety precautions, said a Syrian military official, correcting an earlier report
    https://tn.ai/2490961

    spriters
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    2h
    Syria
    TankerTrackers: The tanker that burned yesterday off the coast of Baniyas is not an Iranian vessel, but a Beirut-registered tanker called WISDOM. The vessel helped Iranian supertanker ARMAN 114 offload 300-350 thousand barrels at a time due to depth restrictions.

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:44 am

    More on the tanker. Almost all, apart from it not being an attack, not as previously reported

    spriters
    @spriters11
    ·
    12h
    The explosion of a tanker off the coast of Syria:
    The military men of "RussVesna" on the spot managed to find out what really happened.
    The UAV attack is completely ruled out, the fire occurred inside the vessel.

    It is reliably known that an explosion occurred on the Iranian tanker "Wizdom" (under the flag of Panama) in the middle of the deck due to a short circuit in the electrical network, which caused a fire. There are no casualties.

    The commander of the grouping of Russian troops in the SAR made a decision to send an MI-8 helicopter with a spillway device; it made 6 drops to the fire site with a total volume of 30 m³.

    By 18.00 the fire was extinguished, the danger of spillage of fuels and lubricants in the sea was prevented.


    Syrian War: News #22 - Page 29 Ez2YEdpXEAIrCp1?format=jpg&name=small

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    George1
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    Post  George1 Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:08 pm

    Posts about s-200 replacement and Bavar-373 transferred to the topic of syrian air defence here:
    https://www.russiadefence.net/t4460p75-syrian-air-defence-force#322766

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    Post  elconquistador Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:30 am

    Spriters11 has been suspended again.

    Does anyone know if he has a new Twitter handle (or any other platform for that matter, like Telegram/discord/gab)?

    Thanks in advance
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Wed May 05, 2021 2:02 pm

    Try DaggRober.

    Last nights IAF attack was inland halfway between Latakia and Tartous. Must be in the Hmeimen air defence zone and must have been from the sea.

    Aurora Intel
    @AuroraIntel
    ·
    6h
    During the night it appears #Israel conducted an extensive airstrike in Northern #Syria. This was a larger scale operation than the usual airstrikes we have seen in the last several months.

    Andrew
    @AndrewBritani
    ·
    11h
    Multiple sites were targeted. A civilian asset was struck in the Al-Samra / Al-Haffah area, causing the death of a civilian, and a Syrian military site in Deir Shamil, near Masyaf was struck, injuring personnel

    Hadi Nasrallah
    @HadiNasrallah
    ·
    11h
    Israel just killed a Syrian civilian and wounded others. The IDF bombed a plastic warehouse in Lattaquia.
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    Post  ahmedfire Wed May 05, 2021 3:28 pm

    Video of the air strike.

    https://twitter.com/OrientNews/status/1389737420929835008
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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Thu May 06, 2021 3:29 am

    Russian air defense useless. Syria has to be delighted. No good advertising for Russiche products and security. It's just embarrassing that.
    Israel can do what it wants. When is it finally end? That was now in the core area with Russian S-400 coverage. Russia loses all credibility.
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    Post  PapaDragon Thu May 06, 2021 4:03 am

    Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E wrote:...
    Israel can do what it wants. When is it finally end? ...

    When Iranians get it their heads that West Syria is already taken

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Thu May 06, 2021 7:57 am

    The Russian components are there to defend Russian forces and Russian bases, Israel is free to "defend" itself by striking targets it will claim to be Iranian weapon stores or threats to Israel.

    Of course Syria does not have unlimited air defence systems or capabilities and I am sure they don't have all their best systems protecting plastic factories.
    crod
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    Post  crod Thu May 06, 2021 8:56 am

    GarryB wrote:The Russian components are there to defend Russian forces and Russian bases, Israel is free to "defend" itself by striking targets it will claim to be Iranian weapon stores or threats to Israel.

    Of course Syria does not have unlimited air defence systems or capabilities and I am sure they don't have all their best systems protecting plastic factories.

    No indeed not however with them carry out hundreds of strikes already with who knows how many more to come, there won’t be much manufacturing left = less jobs, weaker economic activity post war. Perhaps that’s part of their military strategy, to weaken Syria in every possible way and do it under the guise of their ‘defending’ horse shit mantra.

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    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Thu May 06, 2021 9:42 am

    West Syria is taken ? OK. Suppose this to be true. And suppose also Iran not having any direct military involvement in Syria. Then question is , should Russia protect Iranian or Syrian trade and supply convoys , from Usrael attack , passing through territory it has taken or controls? ( Red Sea / Black Sea convoy route).

    Putting it another way , should or would Iran protect Russian / Syrian trade and supply convoys passing through it's territory or area it has taken or controls , from Usrael attack ? Should Russia / Syria be unable to act in this area ( Iran / Iraq / Syria air and land  route).

    The answer to both these questions is yes.

    Edit : I already posted about importance of keeping military balance in regions of high instability or geographical choke points, such as Balkans or caucases or holy lands. The Usraelis as a small nation or city state, have too much power and Nukes. This enables aggressive attacks against weaker neighbours. Therefore they have no cause for complaints, if Iran or Russia builds up their neighbour's forces.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Thu May 06, 2021 11:45 am

    I actually agree that Russia should be also intercepting those missiles Israel launches if they are getting closer to Russia's controlled sector. To make it clear to Israel without actually posturing hard.

    But it may be a case that such missiles can only be intercepted at rather close ranges. What most posters here forget, or ignore, is that missiles that fly low, doesn't matter if the S-400 has 300km range. That range is reduced greatly unless there is an AWACS flying around and picking up said objects at long ranges.

    Otherwise, the system is there to protect against fighter jets, bombers and other bigger targets that do not fly low. For engaging missiles, it is more up to Tor, Buk or Pantsir to hit those and I'm not sure Russia has BUKS in Syria.

    So that would mean those missiles would have to be flying within range of about 20km or so.
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    Post  Hole Thu May 06, 2021 11:52 am

    So the american and european taxpayers spend another 100 million bucks to destroy an old factory worth 50.000 bucks. Great victory for the western countries! Rolling Eyes
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    Post  crod Thu May 06, 2021 1:22 pm

    Hole wrote:So the american and european taxpayers spend another 100 million bucks to destroy an old factory worth 50.000 bucks. Great victory for the western countries! Rolling Eyes

    Perhaps they use soon to be expired munitions for simple targets like civilian infrastructure? Still real time training for pilots too win/win.
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Thu May 06, 2021 4:12 pm

    Can't remember attacks by Israeli helicopters for a while.

    Status-6
    @Archer83Able
    ·
    16h
    SANA confirms IDF helicopters carried out strikes in the Quneitra Governorate of Syria earlier this night, reportedly causing no casualties.
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    Post  Vann7 Fri May 07, 2021 2:41 am

    crod wrote:
    GarryB wrote:The Russian components are there to defend Russian forces and Russian bases, Israel is free to "defend" itself by striking targets it will claim to be Iranian weapon stores or threats to Israel.

    Of course Syria does not have unlimited air defence systems or capabilities and I am sure they don't have all their best systems protecting plastic factories.

    No indeed not however with them carry out hundreds of strikes already with who knows how many more to come, there won’t be much manufacturing left = less jobs, weaker economic activity post war. Perhaps that’s part of their military strategy, to weaken Syria in every possible way and do it under the guise of their ‘defending’ horse shit mantra.


    i have been explaining for years already ,with out much success in enlighting the zombies in this
    forum ,that Israel is not only at war with Iran , they are at war with Russia too. as a matter of fact
    Russia is far more important target , than iran for the zionist state. The Syrian war ultimate goal ,
    the most important of all goals , was to create a new Soviet vs afghan war part 2 , to give Russia
    a vietnam in syria. This is why israel is attacking Syria economic infrastructure ,sabotage the pipelines underwater of syria , hit at syria oil facilities , this is why neyanyahu also help azerbaijan to attack armenia ,that they know russia is under obligation to protect.

    So US ,UK and israel are at war with Russia.. is an undeclared war , and putin is pretending that this
    is a "syrian issue" but is Russia destruction through a slow ,bleeding war ,what the anglozionist nazis states wants. The day Israel intentionally ambush a Russian spy plane , they intentionally provoked the death of russian officers about 12 of them and Russia own animations ,of how their intel plane was shotdown ,shows Israel was bombing right there very close to Russian base in latakkia.


    So israel is not a friend of Russia, they are enemies ,and they fought against Russia soviet times too during union too , during the egyptian war vs israel. israel is an enemy of russia ,but in front of cameras ,they just say is only iran what they want to target. but vast majority of their attacks are against syria and not iran. When israel airforce ambushed the russian spy plane to get hit by an s-200s missile (the putin official story , most likely they shot it down with an f-16 missile) Russia sputnik news even detailed how israel military , not only did not apologized to russia , but were making fun of how poor precision and how outdated are russian s-200s. They travelled to moscow
    "for talks" to explain "what really happened" but in reality there were there to humiliate Russian military and putin even more and make fun of it. They even found a solution to the problem , and told they need to use better precision weapons , next time to bomb syria.

    Israel is at war with Russia and putin is doing nothing about it , he allows they to continue threatening their soldiers lives , and he is fully responsible for the shutdown of their spy plane for his passive and weakness vs israel that only encourage them to continue to attack syria .

    and their intention is to destroy every missile that russia give to syria ,oppose Syria recovery from the war , keep the war going , and keep russia military there , in an endless war ,and to humilliate russia even more , So the zionist state is pushing to keep alive the war as long as possible.. the more time Russia is forced to stay in syria ,the more money russia will have to spend in protecting syria and their soldiers.


    This is why i have been saying putin , is a bad president , he allows nations to harm his soldiers with impunity , he don't have any policy to stop israel or the west ,other than to hope one day israel will get tired of slapping the face of putin in syria. Rolling Eyes Because putin don't draw lines to israel , and threaten them with shoting down their planes if continue attacking syria ,they see no reason to stop ,because no consequences for their actions .

    the entire thing ,the entire syrian conflict could have even been avoided , had putin did not developed russia as a gas station ,that depends of stability in oil prices to survive , reason why
    russia is in the middle east.

    So the slow death ,the anglo zionist powers are planning for Russia is to create as many syrian/ukraine like scenarios in zones of russia major economic interest ,to keep russia in a dead trap , of an endless wars in as many places as possible.

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    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Fri May 07, 2021 9:07 am

    Yes, I tend to agree. Since Russia recognises the State of Usrael. And aims for good relations with it , as does China and many other countries. What they miss, is that they think this to be purely Arab / Usrael problem. But Usrael as you said is a projection of USA and Europe into region. Still Russia can not go to war against Usrael or USA over Syria. Nor will they want to. Nor can anyone else risk full open war. Because of Usrael Nukes. I think Russia is also limited in dealing harshly with Usrael, since they have a large Jewish population, a lot of them migrated to Northern Usrael. I think that in the present conditions, Russia wished a quick war. They wanted to leave, but others got involved in Syria. The best policy is to build up the Syrian state and Army, so it can defend itself and unify the country. Then no need for Russia to be heavily involved in wars with external players. Iran managed to help the Lebanese forces build domestic Rocket force. They were defeated by them in short war. The Usraelis fear this organised force. Surely Russia can do the same for Syria. Here is where I think Russian policy needs change. Or Syria can ask Iran to help them as well.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Fri May 07, 2021 2:25 pm

    Russia aims for good relations with all countries... only the west demands obedience from all the countries it will trade with.

    Russia has very specific goals and objectives in Syria, but they are not there to help Syria fight Israel, or Iran fight Israel.

    Getting dragged into such a conflict in no way benefits Russia and I don't really think it would help Syria either in the end.

    The minor occasional attacks by Israel probably do less damage than their current support for terrorists... take that away and they will likely expand support for their terrorists and try to escalate things in other ways.

    Would be nice to see some country give Israel a bit of a bitch slap, but the US and the west will rise up and defend their puppet master no matter what...

    Syria and Iran need to start by cleaning house because Israel is obviously getting intel from more than just satellites.

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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Fri May 07, 2021 5:16 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:I actually agree that Russia should be also intercepting those missiles Israel launches if they are getting closer to Russia's controlled sector.  To make it clear to Israel without actually posturing hard.

    But it may be a case that such missiles can only be intercepted at rather close ranges.  What most posters here forget, or ignore, is that missiles that fly low, doesn't matter if the S-400 has 300km range. That range is reduced greatly unless there is an AWACS flying around and picking up said objects at long ranges.

    Otherwise, the system is there to protect against fighter jets, bombers and other bigger targets that do not fly low. For engaging missiles, it is more up to Tor, Buk or Pantsir to hit those and I'm not sure Russia has BUKS in Syria.

    So that would mean those missiles would have to be flying within range of about 20km or so.

    The question is: Why does Russia do not provide TOR-M1 to Syria? I already asked this question in 2012.  PanzirM1 is not sufficient and reliable enough. Only TOR sufficient and reliable . We also see that on your own Russian Air Force Base.

    The attack was in the core area of the Russian air defense. A distinction where the attack was limited to 10 to 25sec. Russia must have previously known where the attack goes.

    Either Russia stops these attacks diplomatically or it stops this military. The credibility is otherwise zero.

    Iran uses this more and more and continues to turn China. Russia is not reliable. Iran and Syria could provide important capacities for the future but Russia lets both hang because of Israel.
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    Post  Isos Fri May 07, 2021 5:30 pm

    Russia doesn't give a **** about israel/iran mini war in Syria. They never hided that fact.

    And they won't give tor for free. Neither did they gave any new weapon for free. Mostly what they gave is outdated stuff that they want to get ride off.

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