Syrian War: News #21

Isos wrote:

Again WRONG, Closing the straight is not an act of war. Read the dam convention before you parrot facts from this fourm.

You don't really need an act of war to start a war ...

Took me five minutes to find this information, not sure why people on this forum like to ignore facts.



Article 21.

Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war she shall have the right to apply the provisions of Article 20 of the present Convention.

Vessels which have passed through the Straits before Turkey has made use of the powers conferred upon her by the preceding paragraph, and which thus find themselves separated from their bases, may return thereto. It is, however, understood that Turkey may deny this right to vessels of war belonging to the State whose attitude has given rise to the application of the present Article.

Should the Turkish Government make use of the powers conferred by the first paragraph of the present Article, a notification to that effect shall be addressed to the High Contracting Parties and to the Secretary-General of the League of Nations.

If the Council of the League of Nations decide by a majority of two-thirds that the measures thus taken by Turkey are not justified, and if such should also be the opinion of the majority of the High Contracting Parties signatories to the present Convention, the Turkish Government undertakes to discontinue the measures in question as also any measures which may have been taken under Article 6 of the present Convention.

Edit: Your troops getting bombed could easily be used has a context for "threatened with imminent danger of war"

Not confirmed : Many arabic resources is talking about killing five turkish soldiers today in Kansafra village

Isos wrote:In the vest case, Russia would impose economic sanctions against Turkey like they already did and the people will feel it. I doubt Erdogan want to hurt its people this way over some syrian guys and their dreams and lose popularity. Turkey also operates some nuclear plants that without Russia won't work anymore increasing the life for turks.

In the worst case warmongers in Putin's circle will push him to war to destroy Erdogan and its friends.

In the very worst case, Turkey would be destroyed and they would lose the european part above the Bosphorus to the Russian supported Greece. Russia would destroy its air force and navy, top and richest civilian companies, oil stock and electricity supply.

exactly..

Erdogan options are..
1)less bad case.. where he cooperate with russia ,allow syria to retake most of idlib.. and they will give
him some territory for "protecting it" so he save face at home.. and declare it a victory..
2)bad case , he lose in syria in a proxy long war that he started.. and defeated and lose all idlib ..when discover the very painful and hardway..why americans could not win in vietnam and korean war.. ( because china and soviets were aiding the other side. )  
3) very bad case.. is limited war with russia.. that he will lose in an humiliating way.. and he hanged later by his own military.
4)worse possible case.. several scenarios.. is if erdogan goes full retard ,full maniac mode.. and his military and his party dont give up in hostilities with russia.. the russia will use very low tactical nukes against turkey military bases and all turkey trade ports and invade istanbul and kick turkey from there.. it will be a bloody war..
but russia can win.. turkey big army will need to learn to swim to go to istanbull to fight russian army there  and doge nuclear missiles..     the other option is the japan nuclear surrender option.. this is the ultimate worse case option ,that russia could be forced to take.. and that is nuke ankara.. and see how they inconditionally surrender..
and so russia will even things.. if erdogan don't allow russian navy to enter in black sea.. so neither turkey navy will be allowed.    and turkey army hang erdogan.. and agreed to surrender to russia..    And russia will tell turkey ,that they will retreat from istanbul ,when they pay reparations damages to syria and russia for aiding
terrorism for the 10 years of war against them..  in this ultimate worse mode.. turkey will lose a lot of territory..
because russia will not allow americans to rearm turkey again ,and provide nukes to them..so russia navy can lock turkey from commerce with outside world from both sides.. in a full scale war scenario, in worse possible mode.. in this mode all turkey military bases.. including nato ones will be destroyed.. since it is US and nato allies the masterminds of the syrian conflict.. and the syrian war in reality is a war against russia.. and putin knows this.. the world will go in the verge of a major war with US ,but NATO will back down..since its hated by all europe ,and the entire world..and US will have no case ,to go in defend of a murderous criminal like erdogan is.. US military will know they can lose a fight in middle east..versus iran and russia..and will not risk going into erdogan side.. greece will neither support turkey ,or anyone in europe.. he is hated by everyone..  erdogan was left alone.. when he shot down the russian plane.. and if he goes full retard , and start a full scale war..even more.

dude..@SeigSoloyvov


you are speaking about piece of papers.. nobody will give a shit of Erdogan claims.. US neither Israel respect
any rules... or any international laws.. so no idea why you bring bullshit papers claims..  Russia taking crimea
was illegal under international laws and several treaties.. so what?  NATO violated all treaties in yugoeslavia war.. and supporting terrorism.. in syria.. do any paper matter ? no..  force is what will matter in the end.. when dialogue fails.. but at same time.. Erdogan have no valid claims at all.. he is at war with russia.. is an undeclared one.. and Russia will be justified to bomb to hell turkey ..

Is turkey the one threatening russia and not the other way.. Russia is in syria to bomb united nations declared
terror organizations.. just like americans claims to be there doing the same.. turkey military is not safe in syria
because they are fighting with the terrorist against syria and russia.. so this is not russia fault.. if turkey army
illegally invade a country.. and goes to a war zone without permission.. and try to use its military to help terrorist.. then is turkey dude the one to blame for its soldiers killed.. they will be safe in their country..

erdogan can't say.. russia operations in syria vs alqaeda threatens their nation security..    

if erdogan try to block the russian navy passway to its nation.. is an act of war on russia.. period..  then russia will declare war.. is that simple... and he also risk losing istambul too , if the war goes ,the worse case possible..  in my best guessing NATO will not benefit ,from a full scale war between russia and turkey ,
out of time.. when they are not ready to help.. because they need turkey to control istanbul ..by the time they are ready to a war with russia.. and losing istanbul now or even turkey territory  will be a disaster for nato..
since will have no way to lock russia navy ,in case of a major war..  so say what you want.reality is... erdogan can't lock the russian navy ,without facing major war.. period..  and europe and america public opinion will be 95% on russian side.. not turkey side..   only israel zionist fanatics and muslim sympathizers with terrorist will support erdogan in the entire west..  no matter how much you twist things.. nothing that erdogan does are legal ,in syria and neither in turkey.. with its own people and no blockade of russia will be legal.. since russia is not at war with turkey.. is the other way dude.  Erdogan for imperial ambitions have chosen to go in a proxy war versus russia in syria.. trying to torpedo any defeat of alqaeda.. Erdogan was trying to over run damascus with his backed Alnusra and free syrian army terrorist and you still have the cynism to claim Erdogan actions have any legality.. they not.. the context.. on which Erdogan actions are based.. are all wrong.. turkey can't claim "self defense"  when you are  invading another nation.. that have done nothing to you.. ..

Russia is not the one threatening the security of turkey.. is turkey the one threatening the nation security of russia ,by helping nato to overrun the entire middle east with terrorist they finance ,give weapons and give training.NATO mayor powers are trying to create a million man terrorist army.. and fund them with the oil they steal from iraq and syria.. and once syria and iraq over run.. they can move them to ukraine ,give them ukraine army uniforms and attack russia. so any claim of erdogan is just bullshit.. UN under pressure of US might support turkey ,but this will not change anything.. russia is the nation attacked in syria.. not turkey.. by turkey targeting russian ally ,he is officially provoking russia into a fight and so any claims of "national security" when Turkey is the one provoking russia into a war is invalid.. no matter with article of any paper you can bring..  turkey army have been caught even trying to shot down russian planes..    and turkey provide or turn blind eye to the drones terrorist get to attack russian base.. so who is aggressor ? turkey or russia.?  no law or treaty or argument will justify any anti russian move by erdogan , if he dares to block russian navy ,it will be defacto a declaration of war on russia ,and this is exactly the way they will see it.. and not self defense.
and this will only mean gloves will be off.. and turkey wiped by russian navy ,airforce and missile forces..
and im sure iranian will help a lot more ,will take russian side..

The only thing the UN can say is "hey you can't do that" after a review is called. Turks would ignore the UN if it even said that, the UN is useless everyone knows that.

So no Turks do not need UN help to invoke article 21

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The only thing the UN can say is "hey you can't do that" after a review is called. Turks would ignore the UN if it even said that, the UN is useless everyone knows that.

So no Turks do not need UN help to invoke article 21

Few if any of the Parties to the Convention would side with Russia anyway so, to all intents and purposes you are correct.

If Turkey decided to close the Bosporus there is sod all anyone can do about it apart from exerting pressure, of various types but excluding anything that could fall within Article 5 just in case.

A major change is happening in the tone of europe in the syrian conflict....
specially germany..

Y.N.M.S
@ynms79797979
·
7h
A representative of the German Foreign Ministry recognizes the presence of terrorist groups in Idlib. It says it is impossible to save them at the expense of the civilian population

Y.N.M.S
@ynms79797979
·
7h
Urgent
Lavrov:
We hope that during the upcoming consultations with Ankara we will agree that the terrorists will have no place in Idlib

Al Sura
@AlSuraEnglish
·
8h
#BREAKING - #Russian airstrikes hit #Turkish convoy in #Syria. Convoy has been evacuated towards Turkish border with unknown number of casualties.
Y.N.M.S
@ynms79797979
·
9h
Rats sources
10 members of the Turkish army were killed and wounded due to the Russian aerial bombardment that targeted the Turkish point in Kansafra, south of Idlib, in addition to burning 4 vehicles.

@SeigSoloyvov ...not that Russia was not going to strike at turkey army?
does this add more wrongs to your your evaluation list about the syrian conflict? Turkey army is all split
through all idlib.. and many of it.. surrounded their positions. Erdogan will have no way to effectively
protect their soldiers in idlib ,while fighting a war with Russia in the black sea.. no idea what kind of foolish
strategy erdogan is leading.. he is using large convoy parades of military hardware to intimidate syrian army to abandon its own land.. and intimidate russia to abandon to its luck its allies.. I don't see any circustance that russia will abandon syria to the slaugther of turkey army...specially when turkey have been trying to destroy the entire syrian country partition it in many parts.. with erdogan support for hundred of thousands of terrorist.


Also Erdogan support from nato in europe is not only fading..
among the civilian population..but also government too. germany government
is now justifying Russia position in idlib.. that alqaeda linked groups needs to go..
and can't coexist with civilians in Syria..  

another interesting report..

Details of the Israeli attack on Damascus and Netanyahu’s admiting his failure

https://www.syrcenter.com/en/sdc/4143

Isos wrote:In the vest case, Russia would impose economic sanctions against Turkey like they already did and the people will feel it. I doubt Erdogan want to hurt its people this way over some syrian guys and their dreams and lose popularity. Turkey also operates some nuclear plants that without Russia won't work anymore increasing the life for turks.

In the worst case warmongers in Putin's circle will push him to war to destroy Erdogan and its friends.

In the very worst case, Turkey would be destroyed and they would lose the european part above the Bosphorus to the Russian supported Greece. Russia would destroy its air force and navy, top and richest civilian companies, oil stock and electricity supply.

Possible, it depends on how much Turkey wants to escalate. And Russia does not need to use nukes at all. Conventional armed iskanders plus tu22m from the black sea (a couple of them did a long patrol there a couple of days ago, as if they wanted to remind Erdogan of the consequences if he exaggerates) should be enough to give them considerable damage and suggest them to mitigate their actions... if they continue.. well they can destroy their navy, air force and air defence, and give aerial support while other countries (e.g. syria, armenia, greece and even the curds) get revenge on Turkey and split the country anong themselves...

As I said before, I believe that Turkey will be lucky if it maintains all its territories after everything will be finished.
The Hatay region (Antiochia) just above Latakia could be the first loss.


P.S. I would be the first to rejoice if after more than 500 years Constantinople will be freed from the Ottomans (I would seriously consider moving there if it becomes greek or russian territory), but I doubt that Russia would be allowed to control it.

JohninMK wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The only thing the UN can say is "hey you can't do that" after a review is called. Turks would ignore the UN if it even said that, the UN is useless everyone knows that.

So no Turks do not need UN help to invoke article 21

Few if any of the Parties to the Convention would side with Russia anyway so, to all intents and purposes you are correct.

If Turkey decided to close the Bosporus there is sod all anyone can do about it apart from exerting pressure, of various types but excluding anything that could fall within Article 5 just in case.

Only in the fake alliance of HATO can you get Bulgarians, Greeks/Cypriots, Romanians, Balkanites (excluding Albanians and Kosovars) to militarily align themselves with Islamic Jihadist enabling Neo-Ottoman Turks. Not to mention the growing disgust from Germans towards Turkey. Romanians don't like Russians, and Bulgarians have mixed feelings towards them, but to get their average citizen to support the military conquests of the modern day Ottoman empire would be a stretch, at bare minimum their troops would have low morale supporting their Jihadist enabling. A lot of their hatred towards Turks is multi-generational, your talking several hundred years!

Besides, if they pull their nuclear option, the Russians can put full support behind the Kurds to hurt them in kind in their homeland.

Isos wrote:Syrian_MC
@Syrian_MC
·
1h
Missiles from Idlib launched by the Turkish backed terrorists into the Syrian coast line

AD units are reacting

very dangerous games.. erdogan is playing..



russian army forces.. had to be on high alert level..  and doing meetings of when a red line
will be crossed by turkey and when to declare war..  attacking russian base with turkey supplied missiles or closing the busphurus strait.. for russian military will be justified enough for russia to declare a limited war on turkey. in syria or more.. depending on the level of agression.

Igor Bundy
13 Turkish Soldiers Were Killed In Airstrike In Southern Idlib as a result of the joint Russian-Syrian airstrikes near the town of Kansafra. A source from the Syrian Army said that Turkish artillery has targeted their positions around Nayrab and that they are currently confronting the militants.
comment image

Bat Terrorist signal has gone up…. help me help me…

According to the latest report from the Idlib front, the Syrian Arab Army has captured more towns and villages near Kafr Sijnah amid the complete collapse of the jihadist defenses in the southern part of this governorate.

Should the jihadist rebels lose the Jabal Al-Zawiya region, this will be a major blow to their forces in Idlib, as the Syrian Army will essentially be in control of most of the Aleppo-Latakia Highway (M-4).

@Canthama
The sequence of villages announced late yesterday has been completed….Marrat al Seen was liberated. There is skirmishes at Hzarrin and Kursaa.

Expect new liberations tonight, defenses have collapse and resistance are fluctuating from some to run.

Al Nayrab saw today another day of fierce fight, at one point the terrorists occupied most of the town just to see RuAF and SAAF bomb the hell out, as a SAA ex officer said…Nayrab is Kafr Nabudah all over again for the terrorists and the turkish military.

It will be a very long night, many more liberations are expected tonight in southern Idlib, the SAA is now getting dangerously close to Kansafra, al Bara and Kafr Oweid (controls al Ghab) , the most important towns of northern al-Zawiyah mountain, this is the highest ground, 8-12 kms away from them as of now.



https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/jihadist-defenses-collapse-in-southern-idlib-as-syrian-army-advances-across-jabal-al-zawiya/

CanthamaOFFLINE#310037
TEP, there is a lot of conflicting info from al Nayrab today. I would be careful to state anything at the moment, believe AMN jumped the gun to soon.
What we know :
1) Two waves of attack today, first wave fully repelled, second wave it got into the village and the turkish backed al Qaeda and their turkish military allies kept most of the town.
2) RuAF and SAAF hit hard, the city is no more for few days, only damaged buildings remain.
3) It is said that part of village is under the SAA.
4) Situation has been similar in Kafr Nabudah and other villages, were waves of terrorists attack, then the SAA partially retreat, set up traps and counter attack.
5) Saraqib is now a major center for the SAA all over the M5, there are thousands of soldiers station there, huge firepower, and it is also known reinforcements arrived few hours ago.

I am not there of course, so my take on is that al Nayrab is a battle zone, used to maximize terrorits’ casualties, I mean way over 500 top terrorists died there, and some turkish military as well, so the SAA has a strategic interest to concentrate the fight at that village, attracting their attention and using the fact that there are 4 turkish obs post around Saraqib and Erdoggy wants to success case at all cost…liberate the siege of the 4 obs posts and cut M5 again.

At the same time, southern Idlib is gone for the terrorists, Kafranbel, Hzarrin and Hass may be liberated of check mate tonight, opening the opportunity for the SAA to advance toward Kansafra, al Bara and Kafr Oweid, the very core of the whole mountain, highest picks and controls northern al Ghab and some descent to M4.

Jeepers some of those Turkish OPs are isolated now.

Crimes of the Assad Regime in Syria.


https://twitter.com/mohmad_rasheed/status/1232038346039451649

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The only thing the UN can say is "hey you can't do that" after a review is called. Turks would ignore the UN if it even said that, the UN is useless everyone knows that.

So no Turks do not need UN help to invoke article 21

Dude.. you keep bringing forward absurd arguments..  

Erdogan can't justify any of his actions.. against Syria or Russia .
all those treaties you mention are null and void ,because turkey is already at  war
with syria and russia since 2011. He is violating all treaties ,all laws.. not only international but his own country
laws..   and russia for 9 years have been incredibly patient with turkey ,is not at war with turkey ,neither threatening turkey security.. even after turkey attacked russian airforce first..
you can't claim another nation threatens your security ,when you are invading another nation with thousands of terrorist extremist and directly targeting another country armies.. defending themselves. Turkey military was caught firing stinger missiles at russian airforce.. so STFU, with your bullshit that turkey "feels threatened" ,they are the one provoking Russia into a fight .  you sound like the troll above.. mentioning "Assad warcrimes" as if that justified what his idol , Erdogan is doing to Syria and his support of terrorism.

yes erdogan can give the order to attack russian warships ,he also have the power to execute in public all diplomats from Russia and all other nations too..   and his fanatics will obbey..Erdogan can be as crazy as he wants.. but that doesn't that his actions are legal .. because legality ,go hand in hand with morality.. something that Erdogan terrorist government doesn't have.  Russia is not fighting Turkey, is the other way.. and until you get that fact right.. then you  can't continue promoting your bullshit claims... he can say whatever thing he wants.. to justify hostilities against russia.. as hitler did the same too.. but erdogan and hitler both were wrong.. an you are wrong too. and in the past proven you wrong too..   

Erdogan consider a "security problem" that Russia is fighting alqaeda.. in idlib.. and this is why he is furious
and mad..  and this is the real reason he wants to ban russian navy from using the bosphurus strait. Erdogan simply don't want to see Alqaeda linked groups defeated in Syria.. and this is what is causing him ,to be hostile towards Russia.. so unless you get those fact right.. first.. you can't quote any law or any treaty or any rule ,no matter which one.. because Erdogan is violating all the rules , all the conventions ,all the treaties all international laws.. by using his nation as an Alqaeda forward base to attack his neighbors and those helping them. heck he even invading iraq.. and didn't saw you complaining about that.   he need to be stopped his illegal and criminal actions in syria and this is what Russia is doing..

if he don't want his soldiers to be harmed.. he should not allow his military join alqaeda to fight Russia and Syria operations of liberating cities away of them. Erdogan  have no right to anything ,when he is behaving like a lunatic ...madman and murderous criminal.. other than be put on jail and hanged later in public ,like musolinni.

Is worth to remember that hitler had a bigger army than turkey and still was defeated.. for Russia it will be way easier to plant the russian flag in ankara and remove erdogan by force.. but such a thing is not necessary ,until now , but who knows in the future he could go full retard and show total disconnection from reality as you are doing and provoke a worse of all cases war with Russia..

Russia is doing the correct thing..  and contrary to your never ending bullshit arguments .. Russia will fight back.. is doing it already... and Syria is doing it too. If he close the strait ,he will get a much bigger war. that he will not be able to handle .. because Russia will not allow turkey/NATO to condition the Russian navy to the black sea ,something that threatens their nation security ,which is a major military siege on a foreign nation without any provocation.. is an act of war .. nothing more ,nothing else. and Russia will respond with lethal force.. and you will look like an idiot ,when they do it.. because you were claiming russia will "not fight turkey".. if attacked.. as blocking their nation access to the mediterranean sea ... good luck with that troll..

Btw,.@SeigSoloyvov

Pay close attention to the next video.. Turkey tanks.. (apparently attacking syrian army).. bombed to hell..
and Turkey outpost bombed too..  so not that turkey army was not going to be hit ?    



So just like i expected.. and i warned you before , Russia airforce and Syrian army both will return the fire
to any force that attack them.. is that simple.. Turkey outpost was clearly attacking syrian army and got
destroyed..

So You are only embarrassing yourself every time you claim anything.. proven to be false later..  Last year 2019
you were saying how Russia  was "losing the war " when they were advancing.. now aleppo fully free and
about half of idlib taken.. cities are falling like dominoes..  and this doesn't mean im not aware of the danger of Turkey in a full scale war.. i don't think the war will end any time soon ,it could last weeks or years.. depends of how crazy Erdogan wants to be . but still he will face even in his best favorable outcome a vietnam war but with syrian army and kurds and iran forces much better armed and trained for combat than turkey army.. so is lose in weeks in a proxy war..or lose in years in a vietnam war or lose very fast in a direct war with Russia... The only thing erdogan can do is choose how he want to lose..

Some maps from the last couple of days




Quite a good map showing how the critical M4 road running across at the top fits in. Mucho mountains.





This one is where the main action is taking place, south of Idlib city and north of the M4. The Turks and terrorists really have to make a stand here but the more they concentrate their forces in this area the better the target they present to aircraft and artillery.

Apart from lack of helmets, this SAA unit looks like packhorse soldiers worldwide, rather than how they did and others still do, look.

This soldiers can be dropped by helicopter to top of hill or mucho  mountain to stop Rat climbing up and using the anti - Tank against advancing armour inside low mountain pass and Roads and valley. Before air drop to top of Hill, then artillery make sure landing zone safe. They need a few weeks supply. So Helicopter does not have to risk coming too often and getting damaged. Iran trains special mountain troops with winter snow Camouflage.

About Russia policy of Iranians in Syria. Even if Iranians in Syria are non - combatants and just doing civilian things like building nuclear reactor or setting up a machine shop or just homes or hospitals. Then Usrael will still attack. With planes. And since Russia does not want to shoot down pilot. Then logic says Iran should be able to defend own interests and Syrian interest under legal right. So Russia should change ideas about this problem. Usrael can not be allowed to dictate who is legal in Syria or not. If Usrael does not inform Russia before attack, then this problem between Russia and Usrael.

The air strikes by Usrael. Have they been accurate? Can sattelite pick up the nationality of operative on the ground?  How about UAV?  Can they pick up the colour of insignia on uniform?  So if air strike accurate in killing Iranians. Then it is human intelligence. So the allies in Syria must find spies. Are there any Jews in Syria? In different army?  One way to make sure, is only allow Iranian troops to work with Syrian in the south. And not wear Iranian uniform.  Difficult for spy to infiltrate. Be able to tell, who is who. Also Russia, can stop sending any jew soldier to Syria. Could be Zionist, black hundreds ancestor.

JohninMK wrote:Apart from lack of helmets, this SAA unit looks like packhorse soldiers worldwide, rather than how they did and others still do, look.

Its a russian fsb unit...

cheesfactory wrote:
Its a russian fsb unit...

No wonder then

Thanks.

SAA shot down a turkish UAV
@Syrian_MC

cheesfactory wrote:
Its a russian fsb unit...

Couple more comments, if I'd realised I'd have put them in the other thread.

Samir
@obretix
·
7m
geolocation of Russian SOF west of A'jaz, in southeastern Idlib countryside https://maps.google.com/maps?ll=35.627393,36.912281&q=35.627393,36.912281&hl=en&t=h&z=18

Rob Lee
@RALee85
· 11h

Russian SOF, presumably SSO, near the front lines in Idlib. Looks like a sniper team with suppressed sniper rifles, likely Steyr SSG 08. 18/

ahmedfire wrote:SAA shot down a turkish UAV
@Syrian_MC

This is what it looked like before it hit the deck





Armed with Roketsan MAM- L semi-active laser seeker high precision missile.