SeigSoloyvov wrote:Turkey can legally close it based on two conditions of the agreement.
1. They are at war with Russia
2. They feel threatened.
The second one would be easy to pull off, etc get Russia to bomb some of their troops that aren't a retaliation strike and then use that act to claim condition 2. That's if they wanted to do it legit.
Otherwise, they can lie and just say Russia did it and do it anyways.
Still, this is a move Putin should have been prepared for so shouldn't be to big a deal.
-they can only close it in a declaration of war against Russia..
"Feelings" will not apply for a justification for anything...
if Erdogan close the strait.. the gloves of Russia will be off.. that will be a defacto declaration of war
to Russia.. because it treathens Russia ability to defend its nation and its allies... attacked by terrorism..
and if Erdogan do that.. it will be a total break of relations ,and Russia still will send their warships there..
and reopen it.. if russian warships attacked , Russia declares war on turkey.. and then the turkey forces
will have to go on the run in syria... to support their main nation that will be at war..
the thing is that in order to declare a war on russia.. they will need to remove first.. all their turkey military
from syria..because it will be bombed and lose all the territory of idlib very easily ,terrorist will also leave.. knowing they have zero chance.
So it will be great if Erdogan shows his claw to Russia for once.. and stop pretending to be a putin friend.
Erdogan is a radical islamic moron... and he had to be offered a big fortune for them to hold idlib.. because
it makes absolutely no sense to risk so much for so little.. muslim brotherhood is a US ,UK and Qatar creation.
and no amount of money that they had offer to Erdogan will be worth of it , for start a war with Russia.
What Putin will do is give ultimatum to turkey ,to reopen it.. but if he don't listen.. you will see a dramatic shift
if Russia policy towards turkey.. Russia will have no options to declare war on turkey for aiding terrorism and helping alqaeda to attack Russian forces in idlib and civilians .
The prestige of Russia as a super power will be at risk.. if putin becomes polite and allow its military to be locked.. this is an act of war make no mistake..and the Russian military will not allow it.. to block Russian navy to transit to the mediterranean sea.. is defacto a declaration of war because it allow NATO to lock Russia in the black sea. so if they threaten the security of Russia ,by limiting the navigation of its navy ,then Russia all they need to do is start sinking turkey navy warships , start hitting turkey commercial ports.. hit their s-400s with hypersonic missiles.. and hit the entire turkey economy...
Russia ...crimea and main land will become like a giant aircraft carrier ,just 600km away of turkey for endless
waves of missiles and planes to hit turkey.. the bridge between istanbul and turkey main land will be the first casualty.. then Russia will then threaten an invasion on istanbul...
Really Erdogan options to fight Russia is are very limited.. they do have a powerful army ,but their air defenses and navy ,which is the only thing protecting them ,is not a match for Russian navy and russian airforce..
Also all those people who were claiming NATO article 5.. will be silenced , when they see US will not interfere in that war between Russia and Turkey regardless of who start it.. which turkey started it.. by the way..
Erdogan popularity will sink ,to the lowest. .and turkey economy sent back decades... and the if turkey insist...
in attacking syria and russia.. just 1 one small nuclear strike.. it will be enough to change even the most fanatic crazy man... into submission..
ERdogan is going to lose...he have no chance to win in a war with Russia.. or in a war with syria ,with russia and iran helping endlessly Syria.. The only question is ,in what way Turkey will lose.. if it will be in a negotiated way ,with Russia ,so that he get some territory in syria ,so that he can save face.. and hold it for a few years until his mandate as president last.. ,and turkey army retreat voluntarily . or if it will be removed from syria ,by the use of force.. or lethal force..
like i said , turkey will not want to continue in syria ..at the moment putin threaten them with tactical nuclear strikes.. on naval ports , and is more than likely he will back down as soon turkey warships are sinked one by one.. at one point he will break.. is a guarantee death.. what Erdogan will face if provoke a war with Russia.
in fact .. Erdogan already by just discussing the possibility of closing the bosphurus strait... it teach Russia that will never again will be able to trust in Erdogan and that Russia needs a very big ,military base.. in the mediterranean sea to confront Turkey from the other side.. for example Russia having a military base in egypt.. will allow to block turkey from any commerce with asia.. those turkey refineries will also be bombed.. so they will be without energy.. without gasoline.. without electricity..
Erdogan will be hanged by his own military .. as soon they see Erdogan , risking the existence of the entire nation.. interesting times indeed.... Russia have all the cards to win.. and Erdogan have none... then you have
IRAN that will be helping russia too.. it will be a very japan like defeat.. what erdogan will face... if provoke
Russia into a full scale war.. and no one in NATO will dare to fight Russia in defense of Erdogan.. the public opinion of erdogan in europe and in america is even worse than the one of saudi arabia..
What is important here to understand..
Is that precisely.. what slow down Russia operations in Syria ,is that Russia is not using force against Syria invaders.. aiding terrorism.. but if all gloves were off.. and full war declared by Russia on turkey.. both Turkey and US forces can be neutralized , in syria and iraq.. by Russian and iranian missile forces.. a full scale IRAN army will invade in IRAQ with iraq permission to remove US bases from there.. and Russian airforce and navy will be non stop smashing turkey territory.. until they surrender... which they will do if they don't want to lose all their navy ,and airforce.. or worse be nuked..