eehnie wrote:A new phase of the war begins. A new phase of open fronts, where every side has the opportunity to supply their own forces. It means a more difficult war.
The war vs pockets finished. But where are the real fronts?
A complete map of the region can help:
In the Southern side the frontline is clear:
- Lebanon-Israel border.
- Golan border inside Syria.
- Syria-Jordan border.
- Al-Tanf are border inside Syria.
- Iraq-Jordan border.
- Iraq-Saudi Arabia border.
- Iraq-Kuwait border.
In the Southern frontline only the areas of Al-Tanf and the Golan remain occupied by foreign forces, but the borders between countries are part of the real frontline and complete the line.
And in the North? Where is the real frontline?
When analizing wars and conflicts you need to take into account Politics interest.
For example for Trump will be suicide to start a ground invasion from Jordan into Syria to remove
Assad ,when he promising to get along Russia and a policy of peace.. he will lose all his supporters..
or most of them.. a ground invasion from AL-tanf base will require at least 30k or 40k soldiers.. that they dont
have and they will be no cover , no close air support from NATO in such illegal operation..and Russia will be bombing US and its rebels ,if dare to capture more territory.. from that front line in Al-tanf.
In short the Al- Tanf front line is a dead one.. for Americans.. it is similar to the position of Russia in serbia ,when captured a military base. too little ,too late.. so it will be hard to advance there with Russia airforce
bombing every inch they invade. The only thing US can do with Al-tanf is harrass and annoy SYrian army..
or try to target Syria air defenses with artillery ,but Syria can easily retaliate.
The kurds zone.. is not worth of taking it.. for now, is more problematic for Edogan than for Syria that zone.
is another dead/frozen front line ,at least for Syria is.. Since it will be hard to do a major advance in the other side
of the euphrates river. The kurds zone can be a pain in the ass for Americans to hold , if Turkey seeks to remove kurds by force.. So for Russia will be better to grab popcorn and observe Turkey and US military to face each other. and see Kurds kicked from there..
IRAQ will not attack Syria.. they are friends.
So the only frontlines that Syria needs to clear is idlib. that is not fa from Russian base.
so probable future in Syria could be..
-Americans gets tired of being there and leave..
-Turkey invade kurds zones and take control of it..
-Russia start an offensive in IDlib to do the same..
-Syria take control of parts of idlib and turkey too.
-eventually when Erdogan no longer inpower ,Turkey future governments will recall its troops
to restore relations with Syria, so eventually Syria can retake all its remaining lands without firing a shot.
So in my opinion only IDLIB is the zone Russia and Syria need to try to take at earliest as possible..
is the zone targeting Russian base. but in the east of Euphrates ,this is a zone Russia can use for their advantage.
to get Turkey and US and its backed rebels fighting each other.. so the kurds and the Americans eventually will be forced out of all their lands by Turkey. and later after that Turkey forced to leave ,and Russia retake all Syria without a fight.. the crimean way. in the case of Kurds zones. inthe southern border.. Israel army is small and weak.it will suffer major casualties if invade lebanon .. with well armed hezbolah..