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    US-Iran standoff 2019- #2

    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sat May 01, 2021 12:37 am

    They can't do anything militarly. Too far.

    Even in Syria their air operation have mediocre results let alone thousand km away with limited package.

    The counter attack would be also painfull. Iran showed its missile capacity. Israel can face 2 or 3 rockets from Hamas but certainly not a coordinated iranian attack.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Sun May 02, 2021 4:57 pm

    @ISOS

    ".... They can't do anything militarly. Too far.Even in Syria their air operation have mediocre results let alone thousand km away with limited package.The counter attack would be also painfull. Iran showed its missile capacity. Israel can face 2 or 3 rockets from Hamas but certainly not a coordinated iranian attack..... "

    By" they", I suppose you mean the Usraelis. But in reality " they " may start hostilities, but the Americans will be dragged in also. And the American conventional force , deployable in  PG region, their Navy and Airforce far exceeds Iranian ones. They managed to cause severe damage in the region. And they will be able to do so again. Without loosing  much in terms of killed or wounded. The warmongers will make money. Civilian contractors will quickly repair damage caused by missiles. But Iran will have great difficulty in rebuilding. They win in a short war.

    Iran only hope is to have Nuke ICBM as detterent. Only way for peace. But right now the defeatist bunch in Iran are selling the family HEU for a miserly  7 billion USD ( American Gold) exchanging I am sure all the HEU. Then the Zionist and Americans will attack. What a cheap way to win a war.........if you have Gold, people attack you and kill and Rob you and you are left with nothing, but if you have HEU, then no one attacks you and you are alive, the richest man on Earth.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Mon May 03, 2021 12:22 am

    US under Trump didn't go at war when he had total green lights after the ballistic missile attack. Forget a war with Biden as president.

    Biden is looking at restarting the Iran deal and will never follow Israeli in an attack with no UN authorization.

    And Iranian will never answer to such an israeli attack by attacking US forces.

    Israel is alone and can't do anything with its military capabilities. They may hit some targets but that will be useless. They have nothing to hit deap enough to touch iranian critical nuclear stuff that is burried in the ground.
    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Mon May 03, 2021 1:07 am

    Isos wrote:US under Trump didn't go at war when he had total green lights after the ballistic missile attack. Forget a war with Biden as president.

    Biden is looking at restarting the Iran deal and will never follow Israeli in an attack with no UN authorization.

    And Iranian will never answer to such an israeli attack by attacking US forces.

    Israel is alone and can't do anything with its military capabilities. They may hit some targets but that will be useless. They have nothing to hit deap enough to touch iranian critical nuclear stuff that is burried in the ground.

    They could use the Jericho missile with a derated warhead.

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    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Mon May 03, 2021 8:29 am


    Isos wrote :

    US under Trump didn't go at war when he had total green lights after the ballistic missile attack. Forget a war with Biden as president.Biden is looking at restarting the Iran deal and will never follow Israeli in an attack with no UN authorization.And Iranian will never answer to such an israeli attack by attacking US forces.Israel is alone and can't do anything with its military capabilities. They may hit some targets but that will be useless. They have nothing to hit deap enough to touch iranian critical nuclear stuff that is burried in the ground.

    Trump DID go to war in a limited way. He authorised killing of top General and...... The reason there was no full scale war, was because Iran did not defend itself , as it should have. Ofcourse this position of Iran is not sustainable in the long term. Without a total collapse in morale for Army and resignation for government and ensuing social chaos.

    The Americans supply Israeli Army. They have recently not even bothered with obtaining security Council approval for military action in Syria. In a war with Iran by Usrael aggression, their supply lines become legitimate targets. As do their other assets, such as providing intelligence.

    Usrael military is ranked fourth in the world. So I can not see why we want to diminish them or threat from them. Ofcourse Russia fears not Usrael. They have Nukes and Airforce. By collapse of Iran, does Russia benefit? Maybe occupy the North? The South then occupied by the Americans? So we see why the Russians may not be sensitive to defeat of Iran.

    Iranian civil infrastructure is vulnerable. They can destroy it, like Iraq. Unless Iran develops AND displays Nukes. Only solution. Only solution to keep all foreigners out of Iran soil. But with present sell out bunch, does not look good.



    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Mon May 03, 2021 11:05 am

    nomadski wrote:
    Isos wrote :

    US under Trump didn't go at war when he had total green lights after the ballistic missile attack. Forget a war with Biden as president.Biden is looking at restarting the Iran deal and will never follow Israeli in an attack with no UN authorization.And Iranian will never answer to such an israeli attack by attacking US forces.Israel is alone and can't do anything with its military capabilities. They may hit some targets but that will be useless. They have nothing to hit deap enough to touch iranian critical nuclear stuff that is burried in the ground.

    Trump DID go to war in a limited way. He authorised killing of top General and...... The reason there was no full scale war, was because Iran did not defend itself , as it should have. Ofcourse this position of Iran is not sustainable in the long term. Without a total collapse in morale for Army and resignation for government and ensuing social chaos.

    The Americans supply Israeli Army. They have recently not even bothered with obtaining security Council approval for military action in Syria. In a war with Iran by Usrael aggression, their supply lines become legitimate targets. As do their other assets, such as providing intelligence.

    Usrael military is ranked fourth in the world. So I can not see why we want to diminish them or threat from them. Ofcourse Russia fears not Usrael. They have Nukes and Airforce. By collapse of Iran, does Russia benefit? Maybe occupy the North? The South then occupied by the Americans? So we see why the Russians may not be sensitive to defeat of Iran.

    Iranian civil infrastructure is vulnerable. They can destroy it, like Iraq. Unless Iran develops AND displays Nukes. Only solution. Only solution to keep all foreigners out of Iran soil. But with present sell out bunch, does not look good.

    What's the use of the nuclear weapons if they can't hit the US?
    The Iranians are doing things properly by developing the delivery platforms first.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Mon May 03, 2021 11:45 am

    I wish I could agree Lacelot. But the religious ruling against Nukes, was the faulty foundation for defence, to start with. No doubt  made under duress. Then there was the freezing of research in 2003, for fear of yank attack. And designs for 3 stage solid Rocket have been collecting dust on a table. For no practical or technical reasons, other than political ineptitude or servitude . The result as we see, is a continuation of instability and war and foreign............. ( American and Usraelis ) adventurism. Iranians must set aside political expediency to the west and overcome fears of attack and internal servitude and incompetence by politicians in power. Be stoic to survive.
    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Mon May 03, 2021 2:14 pm

    nomadski wrote:I wish I could agree Lacelot. But the religious ruling against Nukes, was the faulty foundation for defence, to start with. No doubt  made under duress. Then there was the freezing of research in 2003, for fear of yank attack. And designs for 3 stage solid Rocket have been collecting dust on a table. For no practical or technical reasons, other than political ineptitude or servitude . The result as we see, is a continuation of instability and war and foreign............. ( American and Usraelis ) adventurism. Iranians must set aside political expediency to the west and overcome fears of attack and internal servitude and incompetence by politicians in power. Be stoic to survive.

    Well, when Khomeini got into power he even blocked the construction of nuclear power plants. Look at Iran today. They have nuclear power plants. They produce nuclear fuel, and they produce heavy water.

    As for the missiles, just look at what they are doing with their "satellite launchers".
    Iran launched the Zuljanah rocket this year which is a two stage solid, third stage hypergolic liquid rocket with 1.5m diameter and 25.5m tall.



    It can be launched from a Transport Erector Launcher vehicle.
    Those are precisely the technologies you would need for an ICBM.
    But that missile still isn't large enough to hit targets in the US.

    There are reports they are testing larger diameter rockets (2-3m) on a test stand.

    This article from last year describes their solid rocket program history.
    https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208906/irans-solid-propellant-slv-program-is-alive-and-kicking/

    This was written before the Zuljanah was launched this year.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Mon May 03, 2021 2:33 pm

    Not enough. Iran needs a minimum credible Nuclear detterence. This means at least two hundred ICBM with MIRV Nuke tipped warheads . Plus a couple of Nuke powered submarines with Cruise missile Nuke warheads. Tactical BM Nukes. Nuke tipped SAM Long range. Nuke AA missile. Nuke torpedo. Nuke sea Mines. Nuke sattelite killers. Nuke suitcase device. Nuke toothpaste........In fact all warheads that can accommodate Nukes, should do so ! And Iran needs to display this force. Put it on parade. Put it on TV. Anything less, is not a detterent. Half measures. It needed all these years ago.

    I will believe it, only when I see it. And so will others.


    Last edited by nomadski on Mon May 03, 2021 2:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Mon May 03, 2021 2:38 pm

    nomadski wrote:I wish I could agree Lacelot. But the religious ruling against Nukes, was the faulty foundation for defence, to start with. No doubt  made under duress. Then there was the freezing of research in 2003, for fear of yank attack. And designs for 3 stage solid Rocket have been collecting dust on a table. For no practical or technical reasons, other than political ineptitude or servitude . The result as we see, is a continuation of instability and war and foreign............. ( American and Usraelis ) adventurism. Iranians must set aside political expediency to the west and overcome fears of attack and internal servitude and incompetence by politicians in power. Be stoic to survive.

    The fatwa was insane. There is no moral counter-balance to nuclear weapons. Only nuclear weapons can balance nuclear weapons. When your
    enemies have them and are fully prepared to use them, then you need to defend yourself. The only reason that Israel keeps going on and on about
    taking out Iran is because it has nuclear weapons and is backed by nuclear powers. But the backers are not enough and it is Israeli nukes that
    will be used instead of American, French or British.

    There is no legal or moral barrier to Iran arming itself for defense with nuclear weapons and ICBMs.

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