US-Iran standoff 2019- #2

From Russian AD expert: https://vz.ru/news/2020/1/11/199924.print.html

Bloomberg: what kind of assistance could the US get from NATO in the Middle East?https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2826470.html

Yes, I think the same. Trump had a tone of.... "  I think they shot down the plane...." meaning you will accept it. Also according to Tsavo article, Russia experts find it unlikely that sattelite can identify TOR strike lasting one second. Analysis given one day later. So this was probably retaliation by yank by manpad or other space based electronic system possessed by yank, and Iran under pressure accepted responsibility.............. Makes sense. And even greater shame on Iranians if true. Thanks Tsavo for good work.

Any admission by Iran that it shot down the Ukr jet is Nth level retardation. The story now is that no matter how bad the USA is
with the extra-judicial killing of Soleimani (that they smeared as a terrorist for pretext), the Iranians are worse for shooting down
the passenger jet:

1) Motive: the USA has the prime motive to have the jet brought down and innocent blood seemingly on Iranian hands. This
motive is deep and immediate, it serves to dilute the crime of shooting down flight 655 and at the same time overshadow the
criminal drone activity involved in the murder of Soleimani.

2) Iran has negative infinity motive to shoot down any civilian passenger jet at exactly this time. Given the MH17 propaganda
racket it is clear that this is a smear job by the USA and its minions. Only in the brainwashed, special needs minds of yanqui
lemmings and a big part of NATzO is the evil Iranians shooting down a passenger jet full of innocents plausible.

3) This is the "remember the Lusitania" shtick. Except that Germany actually did sink the gun running "passenger" ship. Since
the Ukr jet was not running any guns and its spying function could only be marginal, there is no reason for Iran to shoot it down.

4) The story about the Ukr jet going over an Iranian base is total BS since it crashed shortly after take off. Pretty much this
precious Iranian base would have to have been included by Tehran air traffic control on the flight path.

5) People make mistakes is a BS explanation. Mistakes at the right time are extremely improbable. Otherwise we would have
such shoot-downs on a regular basis all around the world. The only similarity would be TWA 800, the Libyan jet brought
down over the Mediterranean and the Russian passenger jet going to Israel shot down by the Ukrs. But the rate of such incidents
is roughly one every 15 years. The Libyan jet was a deliberate shoot down. TWA 800 and the Tu-154 cases were accidental
during AA firing exercises. No such activity was happening in Iran. That includes hair trigger ground crews.

6) The fact that an Ukr jet was involved is just too coincidental. It fits with (1) and Washington using its minions to do such
smear psy ops.

Iran had better do a serious investigation with international participation but no surrender of evidence to US and its minions
such as Holland.

nomadski wrote:Yes, I think the same. Trump had a tone of.... "  I think they shot down the plane...." meaning you will accept it. Also according to Tsavo article, Russia experts find it unlikely that sattelite can identify TOR strike lasting one second. Analysis given one day later. So this was probably retaliation by yank by manpad or other space based electronic system possessed by yank, and Iran under pressure accepted responsibility.............. Makes sense. And even greater shame on Iranians if true. Thanks Tsavo for good work.

The US has no such sci-fi capability. It is much more primitive. It set up a bomb on the Ukr jet and had it detonated to achieve the smear.
This is trivial for the US to do since it knows the exact schedule of the Ukr jets flying to Tehran weeks in advance and it has the power to
put a bomb on board in such a compromised toilet. I bet they were let onboard in Kiev without any checks because the local saps think
Americans are angels.

Agree that it seems most likely the Iranians themselves shot down the 737 in error under the duress of the circumstances. Other theories coming off as too convoluted, have to say.

PR-wise, I think statements like "unforgivable" etc. from Rouhani and Zarif are now just compounding the error. Instead, the Iranians should put the onus right back on the US government for creating the situation in the first place, starting at the very least with the assassination, to which so many commentators agree the Iranians were forced to respond for the sake of maintaining credibility.

The Iranians are fucking this part up big time. It's unfortunate, IMO.

BKP wrote:Agree that it seems most likely that the Iranians themselves shot down the 737 in error under the duress of the circumstances. Other theories coming off as too convoluted, have to say.

PR-wise, I think statements like "unforgivable" etc. from Rouhani and Zarif are now just compounding the error. Instead, the Iranians should put the onus right back on the US government for creating the situation in the first place, starting at the very least with the assassination, to which so many commentators agree the Iranians were forced to respond for the sake of maintaining credibility.

The Iranians are fucking this part up big time. It's unfortunate, IMO.

They are saying this but you will never hear it in the western media.

I think the most important fact is that Iranians let passenger planes flying around AFTER they've launched their missiles to American bases. How stupid you have to be to let that happen?! They should have immediately close Iranian airspace! Someone f*cked up big time, whatever the reason is for Ukrainian plane crushing like that. It's a master clusterfuck for Iran and that is the only truth here.

littlerabbit wrote:I think the most important fact is that Iranians let passenger planes flying around AFTER they've launched their missiles to American bases. How stupid you have to be to let that happen?! They should have immediately close Iranian airspace! Someone f*cked up big time, whatever the reason is for Ukrainian plane crushing like that. It's a master clusterfuck for Iran and that is the only truth here.  

Why should they do this? There was no AA activity, unlike in Ukraine in 2014.

par far wrote:

BKP wrote:Agree that it seems most likely that the Iranians themselves shot down the 737 in error under the duress of the circumstances. Other theories coming off as too convoluted, have to say.

PR-wise, I think statements like "unforgivable" etc. from Rouhani and Zarif are now just compounding the error. Instead, the Iranians should put the onus right back on the US government for creating the situation in the first place, starting at the very least with the assassination, to which so many commentators agree the Iranians were forced to respond for the sake of maintaining credibility.

The Iranians are fucking this part up big time. It's unfortunate, IMO.

They are saying this but you will never hear it in the western media.

The western media is a propaganda orifice as established by empirical evidence. People are just too hung up on what something should be instead
of what it actually is. CNN was comparing Albanians using passenger cars to leave Kosovo for FYROM in 1999 to Jews being shipped in cattle cars
to death camps. How can any such "news" organization ever have any credibility?

BKP wrote:Agree that it seems most likely the Iranians themselves shot down the 737 in error under the duress of the circumstances. Other theories coming off as too convoluted, have to say.

PR-wise, I think statements like "unforgivable" etc. from Rouhani and Zarif are now just compounding the error. Instead, the Iranians should put the onus right back on the US government for creating the situation in the first place, starting at the very least with the assassination, to which so many commentators agree the Iranians were forced to respond for the sake of maintaining credibility.

The Iranians are fucking this part up big time. It's unfortunate, IMO.

I don't see any evidence that it was shot down by Iran.

I have heard that Soleimani was offed not so much because the yanquis got him, but because he was set up by other factions in Iran.
This explains the current "admissions" for the shoot down and for the only credible situation where it would have been shot down:
by compromised US assets in Iran.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/08/us/iranian-americans-what-will-happen-next/?iid=ob_article_organicsidebar_expansion

After the killing of Soleimani, the Iranians mentioned the A-300 incident in the Gulf. Now Ukraine & the West got the taste of their own medicine. I don't think the full passenger list will reveal anything useful to the investigation. It can't be kept secret for long- relatives & friends will post info. on those lost on social/mass media.
https://www.unian.info/society/10822121-uia-publishes-full-passenger-list-for-flight-ps752-crashed-in-iran.html

https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2020/01/09/students-scholars-killed-iran-plane-crash

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/01/08/ontario-university-students-alberta-family-among-iran-plane-crash-victims.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/08/middleeast/plane-crash-victims-iran-intl/index.html

Admitting to downing Ukraine jetliner will cost Iran regime dearly

Crowds in Tehran and Esfahan currently flood the streets and shout death to ayatollah.

Iran fucked up big.

Anyways, this can be a chance to topple the Mullahs and make Iran a normal country

Crowds in Tehran and Esfahan currently flood the streets and shout death to ayatollah.

I wouldn't be surprised if the US organized & financed them like the Maidan coup in Kiev; they may succeed in a new military junta taking over which will disband the IRGC.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps

Tsavo Lion wrote:

Crowds in Tehran and Esfahan currently flood the streets and shout death to ayatollah.

I wouldn't be surprised if the US organized & financed them like the Maidan coup in Kiev; they may succeed in a new military junta taking over which will disband the IRGC.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps

You dont need to finance them. They are outraged, most passengers were students from Tehran University. Those students lost their friends.

For sustained protests, some1 has to pay for them.
Update: https://wtop.com/j-j-green-national/2020/01/2nd-assassination-attempt-by-us-creates-more-tension-with-iran/

@ KVS

Agree that no fly zone can not be immediately close to airport. Therefore plane did not divert from flight path. The Canadian PM trudo said very abruptly after Iran " admission", that Canada wants to draw a line under incident. Because they know who really did it. They don't want to pick argument with uncle scumbag. The plane engine was hit. And video shows small rocket hit it again. And Iran IRGC commander tried to explain to people without spilling the beans that reason for plane not exploding, was that a very small warhead was used by short range missile. Because people question why plane not exploded, if hit by missile. He also said that, when he heard the news, he wanted to die!  A grave over statement of a simple error or shoot down of errant plane. Indicating a more serious incident. That I think they have covered up, so as not be forced to retaliate. Iran in effect accepting defeat by non retaliation to yank murder and stating this outside the country by FM and at UN. While making brave statement at home.......... A sell out and capitulation...........

Agree that it looks less likely Iranians shot down the plane. At first they said, that this was impossible. Before the politicians told them to make it possible. They  ( the IRGC commanders) are now being sacrificed by the Iranian Liberal press and face possible ousting.............. The liberals.............. The liberals.................

@ Aristide

The British Embassador was briefly arrested at university with scumbag agitators. Britain should be kicked out of Iran for interfering in internal affairs and supporting assassination of Soliemani by pig face in Parliament of UK.

You do realize that the mullah regime is incredible unpopular by iranian youth?

You do realize that shooting down an aircraft full of iranians is not so good for regime?

You know what? USA kills iranian general. Iran says it will take revenge. Its revenge means 60 dead iranians at a mass stampde and shooting down aircraft full of iranians.

They dont appear very bright

kvs wrote:

littlerabbit wrote:I think the most important fact is that Iranians let passenger planes flying around AFTER they've launched their missiles to American bases. How stupid you have to be to let that happen?! They should have immediately close Iranian airspace! Someone f*cked up big time, whatever the reason is for Ukrainian plane crushing like that. It's a master clusterfuck for Iran and that is the only truth here.  

Why should they do this?  There was no AA activity, unlike in Ukraine in 2014.

IRGC commander said they were expecting American attack and IRGC demanded from authorities to close the air space, but for some reason they didn't do it. This (if true) is the proof that something (or a lot of something) isn't functioning there as it should. If you think that the air attack is imminent, then you will close your air space for sure, it's logic thing to do. They managed to f*ck up everything they've achieved with that missile attack on American bases and now they look ridiculous in the eyes of many people. What a blunder.

If the US didn't try to oust Assad, tear up the Nuclear Deal & change the Iranian regime, all those people would still be alive today. So, the US can be blamed for their deaths as well.
Trump said "no more endless wars" but now demands $ for leaving Iraq. To Iran & its proxies in Iraq, the US troops at all those bases r like a red cloth to a bull in Spain. Iran is just defending itself at what it perceives as US destabilizing influence. Similar to what the PRC & USSR did in Korea & Vietnam.

https://www.juancole.com/2020/01/soleimani-against-support.html

littlerabbit wrote:

kvs wrote:

littlerabbit wrote:I think the most important fact is that Iranians let passenger planes flying around AFTER they've launched their missiles to American bases. How stupid you have to be to let that happen?! They should have immediately close Iranian airspace! Someone f*cked up big time, whatever the reason is for Ukrainian plane crushing like that. It's a master clusterfuck for Iran and that is the only truth here.  

Why should they do this?  There was no AA activity, unlike in Ukraine in 2014.

IRGC commander said they were expecting American attack and IRGC demanded from authorities to close the air space, but for some reason they didn't do it. This (if true) is the proof that something (or a lot of something) isn't functioning there as it should. If you think that the air attack is imminent, then you will close your air space for sure, it's logic thing to do. They managed to f*ck up everything they've achieved with that missile attack on American bases and now they look ridiculous in the eyes of many people. What a blunder.  

The IRGC acts like a stats in the state. In Iran is a massive conflict, normal people against the religious nutjobs.

In the streets they chant now "west is not our enemy, enemy is inside!" And death to ayatollah.

The IRGC acts like a stats in the state. In Iran is a massive conflict, normal people against the religious nutjobs.

In the streets they chant now "west is not our enemy, enemy is inside!" And death to ayatollah

The same slogans as in Irak, Lybia, Syria ... at the end they were the one who suffered the more because of western troops. That creates a civil war and west can't protect them because they are actually a minority and they  get killed by the ones who are more motivates to have their country for themselves and not sell it to US.


Here is an exemple of few hours ago :

Why would the rebels allow a US salvage team (under any guise) on their territory?!
Didn't they turn over the black boxes to Malaysians?

How would they know who they turned the black boxes over to?

Why would they consider refusing... what are they going to do with the black boxes?

Well they would refuse to hand them over if they had something to hide... but they clearly handed them over...

So just has I said the sam crew thought it was a bomber and took it down. Facts are facts. You all let your hatred blind your reasoning, it's sad really.

Iran admitted the fault and took the blame, that's respectable.

I will believe the Iranian government over people having a rant on the internet or proven bold faced liars like Trump and Pompeo.

Lets just agree my government has not one shred of autonomy or independence.
Handing any evidence to them is handing evidence over to the U.S.A's personal opinion.

I remember reading a reporters article where he went to the region and talked to a lot of people and recorded the interviews but when he returned to Europe everything was confiscated and he was afraid they would hand the materials over to the Ukrainians so they could hunt down the witnesses and eliminate them from the information pool so to speak... really scary stuff... imagine being in that position handing over stuff that is going to get people you spoke to killed...

The guy that was air traffic controller has been on holiday for a couple of years now... don't think he is coming back...

Lets just say i i rather wish to be on the receiving end of an firing squad than be part of this new "ukrainian democracy".

Ignorant pricks... I hope they get treated in their old age the way they are treating their fellow citizens now...

You were right Seig, I apologize if I said anything bad to you about this incident.

The Iranians should just give the control of their airspace to Russia, how the fuck do you don't know what is a civilian aircraft? We're the responders off? Total fucking morons. There is still more to come out but this is a big fuck up.

Ohh please... you can call them morons... but that makes them one all doens't it... both America and Iran have shot down a civilian airliner in Iranian airspace... and both times it was the fault of the US...

What happens now? More US Tomahawks flying at Iran?

No Americans on board... I doubt they could care less... it was only a Ukrainian plane after all...

I do not expect any Military action over this.

They said the plane was the reason for the economic sanctions so they will just remain in effect.

If Iranian forces actually shot down the Ukr plane, then they need better trained personnel operating their equipment. The notion that it
was "mistaken" for an UAV because it flew over an Iranian base is breathtakingly inane. Tehran air traffic control is what sets the flight
path. Target tracking is essential under any conditions, knee jerk reaction to objects above magical geographic points is beyond retarded.
Following this brain dead reaction the Iranians would be shooting down their own civilian jets as well.

Well the real questions are... do they have a unified IADS and was the launcher that fired this missile part of that IADS (I suspect not).

The fact that US drones can't sneak in to Iranian territory it seems they have good coverage... the question is... is it sectors and areas or is it one air defence space... I suspect the former.

Also, even if they did it, they should never admit it.

They are not America.

I still don't buy it. The plane was taking off, the crew can watch a boieng at max range and even more. The guy inside the tor was not an amateur. He was trained and experienced because they wouldn't put inexperienced guys inside such systems defending Teheran knowing US could strike the Ayatollahs there.

Well that is the thing I am thinking... who said it was a TOR... only people on this site... the offical statement said it was friendly fire but they didn't say what hit the aircraft... and I pretty much stand by what I said there is no reason to believe a TOR battery would have shot this aircraft down.

Might have been a shoulder fired missile or a HAWK or other ancient piece...

The Russians shot down several of their own Frogfoot aircraft in Georgia by mistake too...

And of course the US Navy loves to shoot down civilian airliners.

(Don't mean they do it all the time, but they don't take responsibility but instead give their sailors medals for the kills...)

the truth could slap people on the face in this forum and they'd still refuse to believe it.

Until Iran had confirmed it I wouldn't take the word of the US President or Pompeo. Trump also said America is doing great things in Venezuela... should I believe that too? You don't even believe that.

Yes because Iran who hates the United States, would do Washington a favor and take false blame for something like this. Mhm Rouhani was all like "Let's help America and falsely convict ourselves".

They wont do them a favour, but they will say things they think could prevent a war...

This forum is a riot, It's so funny to me watching people see the truth but make up excuses like this one and try and create situations where it's the US's fault.

But it clearly is Americas fault... they tell Iran they want to talk terms so that lures a target out in the open whom they kill, and Iran responds, but Iranian air defence missile operators would not be on high alert if there was no assassination to start this... which pretty much makes it Trumps fault.

That is where human error comes input guys in high-pressure situations, They attacked the US base. Trump was ranting he would hit 52 Sites if they did, They knew USAF was in the air.

That is a very very tense situation, The plane was nearby a Military base with its lights turned off, chances are the pilots felt they didn't need to turn them on just yet being so close to the Airport.

The Iranian crew sees something that shouldn't be in the air let alone near a Military base. The radar would suggest it's a big plane, they think. It's a bomber getting ready for an attack run and they act.

That is reallll high-pressure situation, I have been in these situations. You have but a second to make a choice and sadly for the civilians. The Iranian SAM crew made the wrong one, UNKNOWINGLY. You may think they have minutes but real in the field, you need to make spilt second decisions.

Plausable... but missing the obvious ingredients that the civilian plane would be sqwalking a civilian code and that the Iranian missile unit would ignore it because they know Americans are  and will use any dishonest method of killing people... they have a history...

Mindstorm you are lying. How this attack could show the sensitivity of air defense. This US base was not protected by PAC 3 or THAAD. If PAC 3 and THAADs were there, most of the missiles would be intercept. This is how it looks. Many ballistic missiles were intercepted in Saudi Arabia, which shows that the US missile defense is in good shape.

You are not getting it... PAC-3 and THAAD are fucking expensive... not every little HQ and base in the Middle East with US soldiers in it can have PAC-3 or THAAD defending them... PAC-3 has an effective radius against ballistic targets of less than 30km... the message it sent is that the US can't protect all its people in the Middle East.

Look at the composition of US military these days. Mostly latinos, blacks, buddhist, hindus, muslims and other colored races. These people are coerced to join the military, because it doesn't matter if these fellows get killed in some third world hell hole.

Yeah, but when their media tells it they talk about American soldiers so religion and and race don't matter much... Terrorists killed (ie civilians and people who happened to be there included as majority of deaths) allies killed and American soldiers killed can be mentioned when it suits the story.

That's why I think this whole story weired. There were 10 such flights that nigh so the crew was very well aware that planes come from that direction and use those path. The plane was going upwards gaining speed something very normal for a civilian aircraft taking off and not a the way a bomber or a missile would fly.

Which is why it wont be a TOR, and will more likely be a MANPAD or other less well supported missile system.

The operator stated they thought it was a cruise missile, that is some next level incompetence. Cruise missiles do fly low to avoid detection and pop into the air higher last second, So since the plane had no lights on. That is what they are saying.

An operator of a MANPAD might have thought it could be a cruise missile but a TOR operator would notice the shear size of the target... and that it was heading away from an airport...

I don't know how you mistake a 737 for a Cruise missile but hey. I can understand mistaking a bomber for one but a missile is another story.

The American Navy thought an Airbus A300 was an F-14 and they managed to kill 290 people...

A Boeing plane can be taken over remotely via satellites & computers to override any inputs from its pilots.
There have been claims that the technology has been secretly fitted to some commercial airliners. Some have blamed it for the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, whose cause is unknown as of 2018.

A modern airliner... the controls and indicators in the cockpit tell you what is happening but it would be easy to falsify readings... yes the lights are on... yes the civilian IFF code is broadcasting... yes the tacan signal to mark you on civilian radar is active...

He was the Judas/traitor who was perfectly willing to betray harsh truth for the comfort of illusion and lies. The thing that was off was that there was only one of him. For better accuracy, pretty much all the humans should have been Cyphers.

The entire western world doesn't want to see the truth that gives them their comfortable lives... take people to a meat factory and they wont eat meat again... or wont buy store bought meat... but there is not enough empty space for everyone to hunt their meat naturally...

The western world doesn't want to see the dirty tricks the west does to build its own wealth... but the funny thing is that dirty tricks on paper makes the US wealthy... all the wars make the US wealthy... but in actual fact most of the wealth is in the hands of the few and that is going to catch them up and bite them on the ass... it is of course reversable but they need to completely change their ways so I really don't think they can.

It is like the Ukraine... they could have a much better standard of living and much better economy if they got down off their high horse and got rid of everyone in power and put most of them in jail that deserve it and strip them all of all the money they were and are stealing and then just say we want good relations with everyone speak any language you feel comfortable with... it wont instantly turn into a land of milk and honey but it would be the first step to fix what has been broken. Wont happen though.

Russia experts find it unlikely that sattelite can identify TOR strike lasting one second. Analysis given one day later.

I really doubt it was TOR... MANPADS would be much more believable.

The story now is that no matter how bad the USA is
with the extra-judicial killing of Soleimani (that they smeared as a terrorist for pretext), the Iranians are worse for shooting down
the passenger jet:

Not really... that Ukrainian plane would never have been shot down in ordinary situations... the heightened level of stress was directly created by the US murdering an Iranian official.

Anyways, this can be a chance to topple the Mullahs and make Iran a normal country

Over a years protests in France and you still don't have a normal country so it will probably take more than this.

For sustained protests, some1 has to pay for them.

Or they need genuine grievances like the yellow jackets in France...  

You do realize that the mullah regime is incredible unpopular by iranian youth?

People under the age of 25 should not be allowed to vote...

If the US didn't try to oust Assad, tear up the Nuclear Deal & change the Iranian regime, all those people would still be alive today. So, the US can be blamed for their deaths as well.
Trump said "no more endless wars" but now demands $ for leaving Iraq. To Iran & its proxies in Iraq, the US troops at all those bases r like a red cloth to a bull in Spain. Iran is just defending itself at what it perceives as US destabilizing influence. Similar to what the PRC & USSR did in Korea & Vietnam.

X2

Here is an exemple of few hours ago :

The Iraqis should say lock the money and the accounts and get the fuck out of our country... we will now take payment in Euros and other currencies and we will move our money to China or Europe.  And in time we will want our money back too whether from your accounts or in blood.

The Iranians are fucking this part up big time. It's unfortunate, IMO.

Mistakes happen... my dad said during the war that if the German planes were coming the British would duck, if the British planes were coming the Germans would duck and when the American planes came everybody ducked...

I admit it, Iran is messed up. The clowns operating the MANPADs need to be shot. Summarily. Having these sorts of morons for defense renders
the defense pointless. But their bosses are idiots too. They should provide them with information about targets and not have them fire off missiles
at any random point of light in the sky. And such elements are easy to manipulate by foreign intelligence operations. Only a 3rd world toilet would
use irregular units like MANPAD operators for national defense.

But the psy op smell remains. Trump didn't launch a wave of Tomahawks at Iran because he knew that the civilian jet was going down.
I am also starting to think that there was nothing much at Al Assad in Iraq for the Iranians to destroy. The Iranian government must
be seriously compromised.