US-Iran standoff 2019-

It's not the Iraqi navy we r talking about. Their Kilos r force multipliers & can work together with other subs & ships. If the USN stays out of the Gulf, Iran's goal of closing it to them is achieved. N. Arabian Sea also within range of Iranian forces. In the Med & Red Seas, they have proxies to attack shipping & naval traffic. the US can't count on Turkey, Pakistan & India for any mil. help. If Iran can't sell its oil, no1 else in the Gulf will feel safe, esp. after the latest incidents with tankers.
Iranian Navy/AF may be destroyed, but so will Saudis, UAE, Kuwait, & Qatar oil/mil. assets, as they clearly stated themselves.

Isos wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:[
Iran has way more of an airforce than Iraq had.  Majority of Iraq's military was destroyed during the Kuwait war.  Iraq had little in the means of fighting back.

Local air defenses are much more advanced than what Iraq had since Iraq relied on 100% imported while Iran can produce majority of what they need - its all about logistics and keeping up.  In terms of ballistic missiles, Iran has more than enough to destroy multiple US bases and inflict massive casualties.  As for their armored forces, they are more modern than Iraq's and a lot of it is localized upgrades.  Plus they produce their own ATGM's and MANPADS.  With Iran being rather very mountainous, they would cause havok on US forces.  No, they wouldn't win 1 on 1.  But they have enough to cause so much damage that it would possibly cause mass discontent within the US.

Iran air force sucks. F-14 are well known by US since it's their own plane. The rest are junk. Migs won't be better than in serbia or iraq, mirage f1 were easy targets for old f-14 and no one knows if they can sustain military operations. F-5 are a joke.

What can they produce ? Air def systems ? Even China begs for russian hardware to copy it and you think Iran can develop alone such systems. Their tanks will never see US vehicles.

Their only hope is the ballistic missiles and the 3 kilos.

Manpads and atgms use will be only when US destroy all the country's economic, political and military targets. At the end their country will look like iraq in 2004. But this time US won't stay there, they will just blow up everything.

While I give you that their jets are old and known to US, it still is formidable and would be a challenge if caught by surprised.

Rest of Iran's AD systems are short range and medium range. They are fully reversed engineered and in numbers. Particularly:

Raad


Mersad


and

Ya Zahra


I would wager while they may be knockoffs, they may not be bad at all.

Trump 'Dragging' Tehran to 'Devastating' and 'Unnecessary' War
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/05/14/iran-trump-bolton-dragging-tehran-devastating-and-unnecessary-war/3664144002/

US Believes Iran Proxies May Be Behind Tanker Attacks, Offers No Proof
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-saudi-oil-usa-iran-proxies/u-s-believes-iran-proxies-may-be-behind-tanker-attacks-official-says-idUKKCN1SK1XO

Bernie Sanders Says War With Iran Would Be 'Many Times Worse Than the Iraq War'
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernie-sanders-says-war-with-iran-would-be-many-times-worse-than-the-iraq-war/

https://asiatimes.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2049a8663daea00bd30c32cf2&id=14d8b108ba&e=5455568640

Top Ten differences between the Iraq War and Trump’s Proposed Iran War

AESA provides very little benefit over PESA in terms of capabilities.  It is pointless to rather point it out, especially since now.  As for air combat losses are usually due to much closer combat which would be no different with Iran - US conflict.  F-14 would end up getting close.  Well, same with the F-15's and rest.   But yes, US has the numerical superiority over Iran on that.

As for adding F-22 and F-35 is rather silly since it wasn't long ago P-18 radar was responsible for detecting and spoofing the RQ-170 which would have a lower RCS than F-35 for sure.

Iran also produces microprocessors at Parse semi conductors. They make SPARC based processors and a 32bit processor. Hence they have the capabilities to produce the necessary computers and it wouldn't be much to come up with their own software for the missiles.

If the US attacks Iran, than it will probably be over quickly(I hate to say this but the Iranian technology is no where near the level of US) and I don't think that Russia and China would be able to do anything to help Iran because they would fear sanctions and attacks on their own homelands.

The Iranians just need to get diplomatic awareness around the world, that is the best thing they can do here.

@GarryB

Both sides declare no intention to go to war . Both sides seem to be preparing  .  Actions speak louder than words . American fleet has left to go out of immediate range . To Arabian sea . Yanks ordered  citizens out of Iraq . Iran claims the attack on oil tankers was false flag by Usraelis . Yet yemen attacks major  oil pipe in Saudi at the same time . Smoke and mirrors.  Whats and ifs ......


The Iranians made , in my view a bad move . This time it was them and not usraelis for sure . They gave ultimatum and 60 days of time .  Without displaying any nukes . A red rag  to a bull . Allowing the yanks time to build forces to attack . While they lacked a nuke defence force . Allowing Europe more time to waste time . Bad tactics . They should have displayed nukes and shut the oil completely . To checkmate the yanks . Without much danger of war . But it is done now . We have to make do with what we have .

It is no good to simply hit oil targets now . They will hit back . They can rebuild . We can not . Iran army must capture oilfields in Iraq , southern persian Gulf and other places . This way , it can cripple the world .  The navy can close in with yank navy . In good position to sink them , if they open fire or interfere .

@ isos

Yes Iran lacks large airforce . But they will fight . Even if they loose three planes for one shot down . That means one hundred US planes down . Or one carrier load . Time Russia sent more mig 29 ?


@jhelb

Some Iranians , especially in western USA are ex- royalist monarchist refugees . Recently joined by MKO terror groups . Eastern USA has more moderate Iranians . Professionals . In Iran most people , eighty percent view yanks with deep suspicion and hatred . The problems go far back .

@Tsavolion

Really Iran also needs nukes now . The world will come to understand . Even a conventional attack by yank without ground troops will be defeat . They need three to one superiority as attacking ground force . So they need 60 million troops we have twenty million !

They are supposed to stay undetected how do you want them to work with other ships if they can't communicate?

By underwater telegraph &/ rising radio antennas.

They have iraq, saudi arabia, emirats, quatar and 20 carriers...Carrier can park in the south and stay there for 2 months and just bomb the shit out of iran. What proxies can attack ships? Babel mandeb strait is fully controled by westerns, China and russia. No one want civilian cargo to be destroyed.

Shiite dominated Iraq will stay neutral or take Iran's side.
The USN can't deploy 20 carriers at the same time; IRBMs/AShMs can keep them out of range of their aircraft. The Iranian Mirages can take on even the USAF F-22s: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/one-americas-top-allies-proved-f-22-can-be-killed-combat-57422

NATO spent 89 days bombing nearby Yugoslavia with less than impressive damage inflicted on the Army/AF there. Iran can shoot back harder than Iraq did at bases in the region.
China & India + others have reserves & can have alternate oil supply from Russia, US, Canada, & Nigeria.

par far wrote:If the US attacks Iran, than it will probably be over quickly(I hate to say this but the Iranian technology is no where near the level of US) and I don't think that Russia and China would be able to do anything to help Iran because they would fear sanctions and attacks on their own homelands.

The Iranians just need to get diplomatic awareness around the world, that is the best thing they can do here.      

US wouldn't dare hit Russia or China on their homeland cause it would get nuclear pretty damn fast.

I take it you are still a youngster with such remarks?

nomadski wrote:
@jhelb

Some Iranians , especially in western USA are ex- royalist monarchist refugees . Recently joined by MKO terror groups . Eastern USA has more moderate Iranians . Professionals . In Iran most people , eighty percent view yanks with deep suspicion and hatred . The problems go far back .

Thanks. So which are the countries that Iranians consider to be friendly ? China, Pakistan, EU countries, any neighboring country ?

Isos wrote:
Underwater tekegraph emits sounds. All the ships around will hear them. Radio antennas need the subs to surface so it will be detected by P8.

True, but it'll be in the littorals with different sound propagation; antennas can be extended from a submerged sub.
P-8s & E-2s can be easily shot down by S-200/300 or the like.

They are in Iraq since 2003. What did the chiite do to remove them ? Nothing they can't. It's not like US bases are full of iraqis.

They'll immobilize them there if need be, like Turkey has done at Incirlick AFB- there r more Iraqis than Americans around those bases.

The Iranian Mirages can take on even the USAF F-22s:
No they can't. Stop being stupid.

Why so? Even an F-16 scored a "kill". I'm Jewish; we been blamed for many things, but never for being stupid.

Nato destroyed Iraq in matters of weeks. Some couples of thousand of military vehicle were destroyed. All the air force was destroyed. All the missile boats were destroyed.
If they wanted they could have destroyed Yugoslavia pretty easily. Iran is a desert where you can't hide.

Most of Iraq is flat; besides vast deserts, Iran has mountains & forests where the Caspian Tiger used to roam. Leopards still live there. Plenty of places to hide.
If it was so easy, why spend 89 days on bombing the Serbs, btw killing scores of civilians & losing a few planes?

Russia and China don't care about Iran. They can deal oil with the successor. Iran buys nothing from them too.

I beg to differ. Iran will be partitioned & they'll need to deal with several state-lets & may lose all investments there. About trade, FYI:
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/22/energy/china-iran-oil-us-sanctions/index.html
https://theiranproject.com/blog/2019/05/06/chinese-media-beijing-does-not-follow-irans-sanctions/
https://theiranproject.com/blog/2019/04/28/chinese-investment-in-iran-to-bring-win-win-outcome/
https://theiranproject.com/blog/2019/04/09/china-interested-in-more-investments-in-iran/
https://theiranproject.com/blog/2019/03/17/one-belt-one-road-a-path-to-economic-resilience/
https://theiranproject.com/blog/2019/01/21/iran-receives-first-china-cargo-shipment-via-kazakhstan/
https://theiranproject.com/blog/2019/03/02/iran-china-trade-exceeds-1-73b-in-january/
https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/exports/russia
https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/imports/russia
https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-eu-trade-plunges-as-iran-increases-imports-from-russia-u-s-/29803182.html

Iran is the weak link in the chain around Russia's perimeter defense.
That's why its Northern half was occupied by the USSR in WWII, & it was not easy to make them leave. If there is an implosion, Russia may help the Azeris to take over Iranian Azerbaijan + the S. Caspian coast will be invaded by the RF Marine Infantry. The Army & AF will follow.

@jhelb

It is difficult to say exactly . Apart from obvious hostility to yanks ( and British ) imperialists and usraelis zionists and saudi takfiri terrorists . I don't think they are hostile to any other nation or group . Among top country in Europe that they like are Germans . They are mostly friendly with Russia and China . And rest of the world . But fortunes change quickly in politics . And they rely on themselves most and their god .

@Tsavolion

The invasion of Iraq and defeat of Saddam took at least four wars and lasted many years . Iran is three times the population of Iraq . It is united . Far better armed . Sharing a coast to world oil . I remember reading that US has oil reserves for 50 days . Some nations less . In reality a major disruption to oil of a couple of weeks , will prove unbearable to world economy . Granted a third country may join yanks to defeat Iran , and open oil routes take the side of the bully. That is why to enforce oil blockade against world . Iran needs a good few nukes .

@ yavar

The American demands voiced by pompeo , were not serious or realistic attempt at finding political solutions . They were deliberately made to be Unnegottiable. An insult . A dictat . No negotiation are possible with trump. But an open channel now can be used to exchange POW or MIA ...........

If Iran or what's left of it is going to be dominated by US/NATO, China may decide to invade it via Pakistan & perhaps Afghanistan with it's huge army to defend her economic independence.

http://sbarrkum.blogspot.com/2013/12/pipelineistan-iran-pakistan-syria-qatar.html

They have ancient ties & Iran would make a good colony for ~40M single Chinese men.

Isos wrote:
Trophy can be destroyed by snipers or machine guns fire on radars too.

They can also make suicide drones for top attack where aps can't do anything.

They can't rely on snipers or machine guns to neutralize Trophy systems on a bunch of tanks especially if they're a few kms away. Top attack is a great idea but the best way may be an ATGM like the javelin. I don't know if the Russians have a good equivalent system available for sale.

I find it fascinating how people think Russia and China are the 'only' nuclear powers that opposes an attack on Iran: People forget the India (despite their close relations with Israel) maintains good relations and opposes an attack, you have Pakistan (despite it's close relations to Saudi Arabia, and Iran's relations with India) who also oppose the attack on Iran, and there's also North Korea. You have no less than 5 nuclear powers (Russia, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea) in Iran's corner. Who's to say that North Korea hasn't moved in any assets with the Persian theater?

Isos wrote:

AESA provides very little benefit over PESA in terms of capabilities.  It is pointless to rather point it out, especially since now.  As for air combat losses are usually due to much closer combat which would be no different with Iran - US conflict.  F-14 would end up getting close.  Well, same with the F-15's and rest.   But yes, US has the numerical superiority over Iran on that.

As for adding F-22 and F-35 is rather silly since it wasn't long ago P-18 radar was responsible for detecting and spoofing the RQ-170 which would have a lower RCS than F-35 for sure.

Iran also produces microprocessors at Parse semi conductors. They make SPARC based processors and a 32bit processor. Hence they have the capabilities to produce the necessary computers and it wouldn't be much to come up with their own software for the missiles.

Iran has no aesa neither pesa in its fighters. So it matters since the technological gap is huge.

Amraam are ARH missiles. Add lpi feature of aesa and Iranian won't know if US fighters are launching them. Without proper jamers they will destroy all iranian fighters from stand off distance. They can launch easily 10 amraam at each target.

E-2 and other awacs and command planes have huge advantage over p-18.

By underwater telegraph &/ rising radio antennas.

Underwater tekegraph emits sounds. All the ships around will hear them. Radio antennas need the subs to surface so it will be detected by P8.

Shiite dominated Iraq will stay neutral or take Iran's side.

They are in Iraq since 2003. What did the chiite do to remove them ? Nothing they can't. It's not like US bases are full of iraqis.

The Iranian Mirages can take on even the USAF F-22s:

No they can't. Stop being stupid.

NATO spent 89 days bombing nearby Yugoslavia with less than impressive damage inflicted on the Army/AF there. Iran can shoot back harder than Iraq did at bases in the region.
China & India + others have reserves & can have alternate oil supply from Russia, US, Canada, & Nigeria.

Nato destroyed Iraq in matters of weeks. Some couples of thousand of military vehicle were destroyed. All the air force was destroyed. All the missile boats were destroyed.

If they wanted they could have destroyed Yougoslavia pretty easily. Iran is a desert where you can't hide.

US wouldn't dare hit Russia or China on their homeland cause it would get nuclear pretty damn fast.

I take it you are still a youngster with such remarks?

Russia and China don't care about Iran. They can deal oil with the successor. Iran buys nothing from them too.

That isn't how LPI works. LPI works by individual modules working in small wattage use so it can do basics of scanning and tracking...sort of. It lets off radiation so even basic radioactive sensors will pick it up. Does Iran have those onboard their planes? Probably since it is rather old technology. Maybe not as effective to geolocate where the radiation is from but enough to know it is being locked.

P-18 may work better than what you describe since 1) none of those even correlate to ground based radar systems and has nothing to do with what we are talking about so you are just adding apples to oranges for reasons unknown. And 2) ground based radar has easy access to energy compared to flying devices. Meaning it can intake and pump out much more energy. Since it is also VHF band, it will pick up its targets at rather long ranges.

starman wrote:

Isos wrote:
Trophy can be destroyed by snipers or machine guns fire on radars too.

They can also make suicide drones for top attack where aps can't do anything.

They can't rely on snipers or machine guns to neutralize Trophy systems on a bunch of tanks especially if they're a few kms away. Top attack is a great idea but the best way may be an ATGM like the javelin. I don't know if the Russians have a good equivalent system available for sale.

Trust me, Javelin isn't what's its cracked up to be. You can look up GarryB's and Mindstorm's post to get a better picture of Javelin's faults. Ru MOD has developed better ways to defeat APS (of course they pioneered the use APS, they should know). The 2 best solutions are RPG-30 and Kornet-EM. RPG-30 fires a decoy rocket (used to trigger APS) that precedes the real rocket, and Kornet-EM fires 2 rockets in tandem within split seconds of each other making it hard for APS to react in time to the second rocket.

RPG-30








Kornet-EM

miketheterrible wrote:AESA provides very little benefit over PESA in terms of capabilities.  It is pointless to rather point it out, especially since now.  As for air combat losses are usually due to much closer combat which would be no different with Iran - US conflict.  F-14 would end up getting close.  Well, same with the F-15's and rest.   But yes, US has the numerical superiority over Iran on that.

As for adding F-22 and F-35 is rather silly since it wasn't long ago P-18 radar was responsible for detecting and spoofing the RQ-170 which would have a lower RCS than F-35 for sure.

Iran also produces microprocessors at Parse semi conductors.  They make SPARC based processors and a 32bit processor.  Hence they have the capabilities to produce the necessary computers and it wouldn't be much to come up with their own software for the missiles.

I don't doubt that the archaic P-18 detected the RQ-170, but I'm pretty sure the spoofing was done by Autobaza, which were sold a few years prior to the incident. Then again Autobaza could of passively detected the 'Beast of Kandahar' and probably was helped by P-18 triangulation.

magnumcromagnon wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:AESA provides very little benefit over PESA in terms of capabilities.  It is pointless to rather point it out, especially since now.  As for air combat losses are usually due to much closer combat which would be no different with Iran - US conflict.  F-14 would end up getting close.  Well, same with the F-15's and rest.   But yes, US has the numerical superiority over Iran on that.

As for adding F-22 and F-35 is rather silly since it wasn't long ago P-18 radar was responsible for detecting and spoofing the RQ-170 which would have a lower RCS than F-35 for sure.

Iran also produces microprocessors at Parse semi conductors.  They make SPARC based processors and a 32bit processor.  Hence they have the capabilities to produce the necessary computers and it wouldn't be much to come up with their own software for the missiles.

I don't doubt that the archaic P-18 detected the RQ-170, but I'm pretty sure the spoofing was done by Autobaza, which were sold a few years prior to the incident. Then again Autobaza could of passively detected the 'Beast of Kandahar' and probably was helped by P-18 triangulation.

Possibly.

But regardless, system worked as it was intended.

Once again, that isn't how LPI works or radars for that matter of fact.

Radar works in essentially transceiver and receiver module must obtain an image from a reflection of the radiation wave.  The strength behind the pulses is from power input/output.  LPI mode essentially reduces power apparatus of the modules in order to scan an area using individual T/R Modules. It wont be working at its full capacity if it isn't letting off full signal power.  If there are 1,500 T/R modules operating at 15W each, then it will produce the corresponding detection/tracking range based upon the power output and sensitivity of the electronics in translating the radiation wave return.  Do you seriously think a radar will see 300km if its top range is 300km detection/tracking range with 1,500 modules at 15w each will be same if they were operating at lets say 5w each and only small scans in individual areas so not all modules are scanning in same time?  No.  Radar systems will pick that radiation signal wave up as well. Doesnt matter if it changes its frequencies, first set of radiation picked up by RWR will know radiation has reflected off of it thus can figure out where that first frequency came from.

As for AWACS, yes, they may see those Iranian jets first.  But they are rather big and heavy targets, who will get to who first?

I am more interested to see if Iran has any EW/ECCM systems for their aircrafts.