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US-Iran standoff 2019-

Isos

Isos: Posts : 11379
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Post n°451

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

Isos Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:04 pm

You must be joking. Saudis are well trained in what? How fast they will run away from battlefield? We see Saudi capabilities in Yemen, where they are regularly beaten by Houties. Iran is experienced army. They figh eight years long war with Iraq in eighties. Also they give a lot of experiences to their troops in Iraq and Syria. Who stop ISIS in front of Bagdad? It was Iran Al Quds units under command of general Suleimani. Iraqi army was broken in that time and unable to fight. Iranian troops also got a lot of experiences in Syria and learn a lot about air defense with Syrians and Russians.

I was talking about USA.

Iranian experience against isis won't help against US air force and navy. Again they will just use their airforce and navy. No boots on the ground.

Air defense is quite different story. IRIADS is now independent branch of armed forces and Iran invest a lot in it. They produce old stuff like HAWK, but deaply modernized with digital electronics, new radar homing heads, etc and well improved comparing to original, similar as original S-125 Neva and modernized Pechora-2M. They are producing new domestic stuff and now they muster PESA and AESA radar technology. All their air defense complexes are now integrated in modern IADS, so their effectivenes is now far higher than before. You could see now difference in air defense in Syria after Russians came and modernize their systems and integrate them in IADS comparing to situation before, when every battery was on its own. IRIADS is far bigger than Syrian AD and majority of their complexes are domestic, so sanctions could not degrade their capabilities. They produce their own spare parts and missiles. IRIADS actually is not a joke.

Syrian are disapointed with chinese radars who invest like 100000x more than iranian. Let alone iranian sytems that looks more like toys than anything else. Stop blinding yourself with your hate of US.

Even russians include US made electronics in their last radars because they can't produce everything and you think iran with its budget of some couple million dollars for all the army will do better. Rolling Eyes

Yes, IRIAF is small and old, but they are modernizing their planes and they are producing even new planes and helicopters. Same went for NAVY.

They can stop it right now. Those f-5 copies and missile boats won't go anywhere against US air force and navy.

Wrong again. In case of Attack, Iran will strike back and destroy US bases in ME as well as all oil instalations in KSA, UAE, Qatar, … They will also sink US fleet in persian gulf. They have enough anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles to do the job. US is in no position to fight long war with Iran, because they are bankrupt state. With no money, US army will fall apart.

If an attack occurs it's gonna be US+KSA+israel+gulf states+ UK+ some EU states.

US are not stupid, they know what are iranian capabilities. If it goes hot they will leave the bases, deploy troops outside with their vehicles, send the fighters/bombers out of reach of iranian missiles. Most of their ballistic missiles are not all 2500km ones but smaller.

For the antiship missiles you should check a map. The strait is very small but then the persian gulf is 350km max. Their antiship missiles have not that range. Most are chinese equivalents of older exocets and kh35 which are better than iranian equivalents but still have less than 300km in range.

The US carriers won't even go there. They will attack from the south.

Saudi arabia is planing to buy S-400 which will intercept any of those iranian scud variants. And if they really need something fast they can buy S-300VM.

nomadski

nomadski: Posts : 2903
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Post n°452

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

nomadski Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:32 pm

I remember once , hearing that Usraelis were about to attack Iran . Then Iranians removed nuclear fuel from the Bushehr plant to safe place . I think Iran should now remove nuclear fuel from ALL plants and take them to a undisclosed safe location . They will also be more useful there . Forget IAEA monkeys complain . They should not know location . They are all CIA spies . Also if reactor hit , no danger of radiation . Do this for six months to a year . Until nuclear deterrence ready . Use gas to make electricity for now . Hide gas generator under ground also , safe from air attack .

Also divert fresh water into mountain lakes , in case Dams are hit . Also level of water lower in Dams means less danger of collapse , if hit . All electricity grid should be protected against Graphite Bombs . Circuit breakers fitted , to switch system off , to avoid damage . Back up air traffic and civil traffic control should be ready , in case of cyber attack . EMP . Hostile TV broadcasts should be jammed . Emergency TV mast should be ready , to replace those hit by missile . To keep population normal . Underground fuel depots should be full . I remember , during Dr . Ahmadenejad time , this was done . Small nuclear reactors should start working and making material . Nuclear decoy radiation should be dispersed on land to confuse sattelite ................

AlfaT8

AlfaT8: Posts : 2477
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Post n°453

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

AlfaT8 Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:44 pm

Ok since everyone's trowing their 2 cents in, i might as well.

As far as i can see no matter what happens the Straight is gonna get closed down and effectively turned into a shooting gallery, so no matter what Orange man says, the price of oil is gonna go through the Roof and then some.

S.Arabia shouldn't hold their breath, during such a conflict their refineries and pipelines are gonna be cratered one way or another.
And U.S bases are going to for the first time in a long time get hit as well.

Iraq is going to get completely destabilized too, since it's the Iranian forces there that are actually the ones holding the country together.
Lebanon is going to go full Berserker, but that really depends on what missiles they have and how many.
I see very little change in Syria.
And who knows what's going to happen in Yemen.

As for defenses in general.
The Iranian Air-Force and Air-Defense forces are honest to god wild cards here.
We just don't know to what extent Iran has been able to modernize their aircrafts and AA systems, or even how far their AD network itself is integrated.
Hopefully they managed to learn a lot from the Russian/Soviets network and the Iraq war.
One odd issue i see, is the lack of a Pantsir equivalent, Iran seems to have less then 20 units, even Iraq has more, what gives?

The Iranian army is no pushover and they are well armed, but the biggest question is to their Moral and the extent of their unity.
Iraq and Libya were pretty much broken internally, while Syria had a decent grasp on things.

Honestly, depending on the Army's loyalty, let's assume it's at the level of the Vietcong.
The U.S is looking at an incredible bleak situation, there is simply no chance in hell of a quick victory and the Iranians have the capability to deliver a completely devastating levels of damage, the likes of which U.S forces have yet seen.

And then there's Russia and China.
Russia is in no mood for more Terrorist near it's border, so expect some level of support from them, in terms of weapons not just political speeches.
China will probly also follow suite, they are in no mood to have one of their main oil suppliers getting whacked and China seems to be well aware that getting supplies only from Russia would eventually lead to confrontation with Russia down the line, as the U.S hopes.

India looks to be the odd man out, they seem to be trying to play the field and get Russia and the U.S to compete for them.
Let us hope that India playing it smart, and not going full retard.
Still no conformation on their stance on oil imports from Iran.
Where the hell is Pinto??

Isos

Isos: Posts : 11379
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Post n°454

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

Isos Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:49 pm

Where the hell is Pinto??

In his Fiat Punto lol1

ATLASCUB

ATLASCUB: Posts : 1154
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Post n°455

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

ATLASCUB Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:54 am

A lot of indecision within Iran is making it vulnerable and weaker. Its enemies are achieving their objectives.

Two tankers already seized. Word is out. Open season.

They've dialed back their offense and become too defensive. Hearing too much nonsense from its "partners" cautioning restraint plus its own liberal flock who has failed spectacularly. A more proactive approach is needed, this reactive nonsense they've allowed to be boxed into is a losing proposition. Iran gained by being proactive.

The threats from Trump/Pompeo/Bolton are being paid too much heed in my point of view. They're not madman, and if they are and do something stupid, they'll boxed and confined by the American elites themselves.

GarryB

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Post n°456

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

GarryB Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:43 am

Iraq is going to get completely destabilized too, since it's the Iranian forces there that are actually the ones holding the country together.

Actually an enormous opportunity for Iraq to kick the american overlords out of the country with the help of their Iranian neighbours.

Regarding blocking the straight, the Iranians don't need to put a couple of carrier groups there... they just need ground or air based anti ship missiles placed around the area to launch at any ship trying to pass through.

Comments about pathetic F-5 upgraded fighters and 300km or less range Kh-35 type anti ship missiles... put them together and you have potent sea skimming antiship missiles with extended flight ranges...

For chasing down US launched cruise missiles an F-5 is perfectly fine... load up half a dozen AAMs like R-73 on each and you have a potent extra ring of defence... American fighter rushing in to become heros killing these fighters might find the SAMs they are operating above and not so old, plus ground based jamming and electronic warfare equipment might just level the playing field... and imagine the effect of shooting down a couple of F-35s... even if they aren't shot down... even if they suffocate their own pilots... wont matter much, but will certainly matter for export sales...

Tsavo Lion

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Post n°457

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

Tsavo Lion Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:33 am

nomadski wrote:There is no such thing as a superpower WITH nukes . Nukes are similar to other weapons, but more powerful and efficient . I think you missed my point , when I post about Iranians ready for death . Slaying the monster lion by close quarter fighting means death . It is the history and culture of sacrifice . Readiness to die. That is why Iranians with nukes are superpower . Because they will push the button . And the yanks will not . Because they defend their life and rights . So I disagree . Iran is a superpower with nukes. Yanks are not superpower even with nukes.

The US frebombed Tokyo killing more then in Hiroshima & Nagasaki they nuked in 1945. NK, Vietnam, Iraq & Serbia were bombed for months with conventional munitions & depleted uranium shells that caused cancers. Soon they'll have low-yield warheads on Trident II SLBMs- & those will be used sooner or later. They don't care if Iranians ready to die needlessly or defending their nation or not.
Iran has no nukes & won't be a superpower even if it gets them. NK, India, UK, & France r a regional, not super powers with IC/SLBMs.
China is on the brink of becoming 1- she needs to form a squadron of intercontinental range strategic bombers like Russia & the US have.
So, from that angle, Iran is a sick tiger capable of only defending his lair.

And Iran , will not need massive conventional forces . Just efficient launch and delivery of Nukes. And policy of their use , to counter conventional attack . Using theatre tactical Nukes , sub - kiloton.

The US & Israel won't give Iran the time needed to acquire them. Air campaign (the so-called no fly zone) may evolve into ground war by proxies, SOFs, & the 5th column, so Iran may not be stable enough to afford them.

Iran can survive without Russia.

barely; it sunk $Ms into Syria & Hezbollah, drawing protests at home. How long will Iran be able to live under sanctions w/o another revolution?

Isos

Isos: Posts : 11379
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Post n°458

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

Isos Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:43 am

Actually an enormous opportunity for Iraq to kick the american overlords out of the country with the help of their Iranian neighbours.

Regarding blocking the straight, the Iranians don't need to put a couple of carrier groups there... they just need ground or air based anti ship missiles placed around the area to launch at any ship trying to pass through.

Comments about pathetic F-5 upgraded fighters and 300km or less range Kh-35 type anti ship missiles... put them together and you have potent sea skimming antiship missiles with extended flight ranges...

For chasing down US launched cruise missiles an F-5 is perfectly fine... load up half a dozen AAMs like R-73 on each and you have a potent extra ring of defence... American fighter rushing in to become heros killing these fighters might find the SAMs they are operating above and not so old, plus ground based jamming and electronic warfare equipment might just level the playing field... and imagine the effect of shooting down a couple of F-35s... even if they aren't shot down... even if they suffocate their own pilots... wont matter much, but will certainly matter for export sales...

1. Iraq will be even worse without US army. They already fighting btw themselve and it will only lead to a civil war when US move.

2. And those antiship missiles need radars to spot the ships. US jets will destroy them once they turn them on. US carriers will be outside oof the strait. Protected by 10 or more destroyers ...

3. The f-5 copy, to use its kh-35 copy, needs to spot the ship with its radar. US destroyers have very long range air def missiles and AEGIS. They will destroy any iranian fighter they can see. The best iranian weapon there is the kilo subs but they will be hunted by hundred of helicopters.

US won't go inside iranian air space like idiots. They will clean the coast of air defences and go in step by step. Cruise missiles will destroy any valuable target inside iran.

You guys are really blinded by your hate of US. Iran can dammage them but the result will be the same. At the end Iran will be totally destroyed.

SeigSoloyvov

SeigSoloyvov: Posts : 3752
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Post n°459

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

SeigSoloyvov Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:00 am

Correct Iran cannot win any conventional fight is it simply to hopeless for them, they may damage or get some aircraft sure but it won't be much.

With our allies, we can simply bring to much power to bare against them.

Garry thinking our Airforce is shit is funny, I didn't think they where that freaking blinded by their BS.

USAF is one of the best in the world, Iran has only a very small amount of modern AD which will be easily destroyed by swarms of tomahawks.

Their older AD is useless, Our pilots are well and highly trained. Considering all the damage we have done, I'd thought people would have known better.

Russia won't help Iran nor will China if it starts hostilities it's on its own and good has dead.

This is simply fact, regardless if you hate the US and want Iran to win. That is just wishful thinking based on emotions.

nomadski

nomadski: Posts : 2903
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Post n°460

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

nomadski Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:51 pm

@ Atlasclub

Agree . But you must realise that the balance of political forces in Iran , since the revolution was in favour of the right wing group or class . Supported by the minority of wealthy or well connected . Factory owners and big land owners. The Iranian left wing was destroyed . The representatives of working class ( Tudeh party ) and other socialists and social democrats .Thousands were murdered without guilt and thousands exiled .

The attack by right wing liberals ( MKO ) was also against the religious folk . ( Hezbollah ) . Some people called them ( Hezbollah ) the small bourgeoisie . Who has primacy in Iranian politics now ? Well take a newspaper like Mashregh news in Iran . They celebrate the killing of Iranian socialists and democrats . Call them traiters . At the same time , they celebrate the possible joining of sardar Azemoun , football player to Liverpool football club . English football clubs are a particularly virulent and racist reactionary body . At a time when SAS , is bumfucking Iranian oil Tanker in the Med ! A disgraceful appetite for reaction and cultural Imperialism , and cultural brainwashing of Iranian youth . They now call themselves Hezbollah . The most revolutionary wing of Iranian politics ! God help us with the reactionary elements of Iranian society . So you see the problem ? The weakness you see is political . But as pressure builds by yanks . These liberals will have their religious mask removed . People will see them for who they are and sometimes I think this religious mask in Iranian society , serves the interests of minority and confuses the line between friend or foe . More revolutionary national forces will take power .

AlfaT8

AlfaT8: Posts : 2477
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Post n°461

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

AlfaT8 Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:35 pm

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Russia won't help Iran nor will China if it starts hostilities it's on its own and good has dead.

Sorry Charly, but there's no chance that Russia and China would not assist in some way, especially Russia.
Another ISIS near their borders, F no.

SeigSoloyvov

SeigSoloyvov: Posts : 3752
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Post n°462

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

SeigSoloyvov Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:50 pm

AlfaT8 wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Russia won't help Iran nor will China if it starts hostilities it's on its own and good has dead.

Sorry Charly, but there's no chance that Russia and China would not assist in some way, especially Russia.
Another ISIS near their borders, F no.

No they will leave Iran good has dead in that event, you can think otherwise but they will not help it.

medo

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Post n°463

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

medo Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:01 pm

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Russia won't help Iran nor will China if it starts hostilities it's on its own and good has dead

Wrong, Russia and China are already in war with US. They both will more like to destroy US on Iranian soil, than on their own soil.

With our allies, we can simply bring to much power to bare against them

No, you can not. US could not bring whole army from around the World to face Iran. You still need army tom face China, North Korea, Russia, Venezuela,... Iran is not that small and their army will count in millions. Saudis are not realy a force, that could caunt against Iran.

USAF is one of the best in the world, Iran has only a very small amount of modern AD which will be easily destroyed by swarms of tomahawks.

Their older AD is useless, Our pilots are well and highly trained. Considering all the damage we have done, I'd thought people would have known better.

You are not really aware of IRIADF, which is now independent branch of armed forces. Yes, IRIAF is small with old planes, which they are upgrading to be more modern. They will mostly fight inside Iranian air space together with IRIADF. But IRIADF is actually very capable. Iran produce new domestic complexes as well as deeply modernised older complexes. Their older AD is not useless. They are modernized and integrated in modern IADS. Iran is building powerfull air defense for decades and they invest a lot in modern AA artilery for exactly that job to shot down swarms of Tomahawks and odher stand off munitions. Their SHORADs are also capable to do that job. IRIADF is ready and you could not surprise them. IRIAF will work in coordination with IRIADF and that Will make them more effective as if they are on their own.

Tsavo Lion

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Post n°464

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

Tsavo Lion Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:08 pm

2. And those antiship missiles need radars to spot the ships. US jets will destroy them once they turn them on. US carriers will be outside of the strait. Protected by 10 or more destroyers ...

they have LR non-transmitting radars deep inside Iran, still have their F-4/14s, & Russia may help with A-50/100 AWACS & MiG-25/31s to detect & defend against ships, fighters & CMs, given them Intel & real combat experience. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alim_radar_system

Their satellites & VMF may also pass USN ships coordinates to Iran in real time. It happened before during the 1979 PRC-Vietnam war: the Soviet satellites provided the Vietnamese target data for their artillery strikes on the PLA positions.

Deep in the Desert, Iran Quietly Advances Missile Technology
An Iranian facility 25 miles from Shahrud, Iran, where missiles testing is believed to be taking place.
When an explosion nearly razed Iran’s long-range missile research facility in 2011 — and killed the military scientist who ran it — many Western intelligence analysts viewed it as devastating to Tehran’s technological ambitions.
Since then, there has been little indication of Iranian work on a missile that could reach significantly beyond the Middle East, and Iranian leaders have said they do not intend to build one.
So, this spring, when a team of California-based weapons researchers reviewed new Iranian state TV programs glorifying the military scientist, they expected a history lesson with, at most, new details on a long-dormant program.
Instead, they stumbled on a series of clues that led them to a startling conclusion: Shortly before his death, the scientist, Gen. Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, oversaw the development of a secret, second facility in the remote Iranian desert that, they say, is operating to this day.
For weeks, the researchers picked through satellite photos of the facility. They found, they say, that work on the site now appears to focus on advanced rocket engines and rocket fuel, and is often conducted under cover of night.
It is possible that the facility is developing only medium-range missiles, which Iran already possesses, or perhaps an unusually sophisticated space program.

But an analysis of structures and ground markings at the facility strongly suggests, though does not prove, that it is developing the technology for long-range missiles, the researchers say.
Such a program would not violate the international deal intended to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, or any other formal agreement. Still, if completed, it could threaten Europe and potentially the United States. And if Iran is found to be conducting long-range missile work, that would increase tensions between Tehran and the United States.
Five outside experts who independently reviewed the findings agreed that there was compelling evidence that Iran is developing long-range missile technology.
“The investigation highlights some potentially disturbing developments,” said Michael Elleman, a missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who reviewed the material. The evidence was circumstantial, he said, but it could show preliminary steps “for developing an ICBM five to 10 years down the road, should Tehran wish to do so.”
Asked about the conclusions drawn by the weapons researchers, Alireza Miryousefi, the press officer at Iran’s United Nations mission, said in emailed statement that “we do not comment on military matters.”

The Shahrud Facility
The researchers, based at the nonpartisan Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, Calif., came across the Iranian facility shortly after a young research fellow, Fabian Hinz, proposed studying a flurry of recent Iranian state media material on General Moghaddam. He wanted to see if it contained clues as to how far Iran’s missile program had progressed before the general’s death.
But offhand comments from General Moghaddam’s colleagues and family members in the Iranian media seemed to imply that his work had quietly continued, the researchers say.
Mr. Hinz also found a big hint as to where the work was taking place. In a 2017 post by an Iranian journalists association, he saw an undated photo of General Moghaddam alongside a top lieutenant and a box marked “Shahrud.”
That name caught Mr. Hinz’s attention.
Shahrud, named for a town 40 kilometers away, was the site of a single missile test-launch in 2013. It had been considered dormant ever since and, when viewed by satellite, appeared disused.
Was there more than met the eye?
Poring over years of satellite imagery, the researchers noticed something: The number of buildings, they say, had slowly increased over time.
They also spotted a detail that would stand out only to an obsessive follower of General Moghaddam’s career: The buildings were painted a striking aquamarine.
General Moghaddam, known as eccentric and strong willed, had ordered his first facility, the one that was destroyed, painted that color. Now the same color appeared 300 miles away on a cluster of nondescript buildings in the desert.
On its own, this proved little, but it led the researchers to look more closely. Once they did, they saw more than just suspicious paint.
Researchers say they have found ground markings apparently left by rocket-engine tests at a crater near the Iranian facility.
Ground Scars
Many military technologies can be developed, at least in early stages, indoors. Ballistics labs, wind tunnels and enrichment facilities can be hidden in buildings or underground.
Missiles are an exception. Their engines must be fitted into stands and test-fired — hazardous work that is typically done outdoors. And engine tests, when conducted in desert landscapes like those around Shahrud, can burn ground scars, shaped like candle flames, into the terrain.
The researchers, piecing through satellite photos of the area around Shahrud, found, in a crater a few kilometers away, what they say were two telltale ground scars. They were larger than those at General Moghaddam’s publicly known facility.
The scars were recent. One appeared in 2016, the other in June 2017.
The researchers scrutinized the test stands. Such structures typically weigh between four and six times the thrust of the engine being tested. And they are concrete, allowing their weight to be inferred from their dimensions.
The researchers say Shahrud’s 2017 test used a stand estimated to be 370 tons, suggesting the engine powered between 62 and 93 tons of thrust — enough for an intercontinental ballistic missile. Two as-yet-unused test stands are even larger.

Hidden Activity
There were other hints. Shahrud appears to house three pits of the sort used for casting or curing rocket components, the researchers say. One pit, at 5.5 meters in diameter, is far larger than those used for Iran’s medium-range missiles.
The researchers confirmed that the facility remains active by using a new type of satellite imagery known as synthetic-aperture radar. By firing radio waves and measuring their echo, the satellite reveals greater detail than a photograph. Because of how it stores data, it can track minute changes between two sets of images, such as dirt kicked up by someone walking between buildings.
“We can see human traffic, human activity that isn’t visible on your traditional satellite,” said David Schmerler, one of the California-based researchers. “They’ve been driving all over the crater where the engine tests are done.”
And there appeared to be heavy vehicle traffic in and out of a tunnel leading underground, suggesting that Shahrud sits atop a large subterranean structure, the researchers say, though they could not say what it is for.
The researchers were especially struck by the fuel — or, more precisely, they say, the fact that there was none to be seen. No storage tanks, fuel trucks or fueling stations. This underscored suspicions that Shahrud is building engines that burn solid fuel, they say.
Solid fuel is far more difficult and dangerous to develop than the liquid kind. While it is also used in civilian programs like spaceflight, its military applications are considerable.
Liquid-fueled missiles must be fueled right before launch, which requires time and access to special fueling facilities, making them easier for enemy forces to find and destroy. But solid-fueled missiles can be hidden in remote locations and fired at a moment’s notice.
A photograph from the Fars news agency in Iran of a missile said to have been fired in March 2016.
A photograph from the Fars news agency in Iran of a missile said to have been fired in March 2016.CreditOmid Vahabzadeh/Fars News Agency, via Associated Press
Unanswered Questions
“We’ve stumbled onto this program that was much closer to being done than we’d realized,” said Jeffrey Lewis, who leads the California-based team that uncovered the facility.
But closer to completing what, precisely?
Perhaps only a more advanced version of Iran’s existing medium-range missiles. Still, this would not explain why the structures appear sized for larger missiles or why the work is conducted in such secrecy. Another explanation could be rockets designed to fire into space — though this is not necessarily benign. Countries will often develop space-launch rockets as a kind of test model for intercontinental ballistic missiles. North Korea and India both started their ICBM programs this way.
Mr. Lewis estimated that Shahrud’s casting or curing pits could produce three rockets per year — not enough for an arsenal, but the right amount for a space-launch program. This could develop the technical know-how for an ICBM without one actually being built.
A Revolutionary Guards officer named Majid Musavi, who is thought to be Mr. Moghaddam’s successor, seemed to suggest as much in his only known interview. A space program, Mr. Musavi said in 2014, allowed the scientists to continue their work while complying with orders from Iranian leaders not to produce missiles over 2,000 kilometers in range.
Still, Shahrud’s focus on solid-fuel engines suggests that any space program there is intended for missile technology, said David Wright, a missile expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
“If the goal is to launch satellites, it makes more sense to use liquid-fuel rockets,” he said. Solid fuel brings few upsides for civilian use, he said, but is “a convenient way to also develop the technology for a solid ICBM.”
It is difficult to assess whether Iran would develop this technology as a precaution in case tensions spike with the United States, as leverage for future negotiations or as experimental testing for missiles that are still years away.
Hedging Bets
Work at the facility is most likely intended as “a hedge” should the nuclear agreement collapse, said Dina Esfandiary, an Iran expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The country does not appear to be sprinting toward a long-range missile, but preparing the ground in case Iranian leaders should one day deem that necessary.
“It keeps the option open,” Ms. Esfandiary said.
Mr. Lewis concluded that the program is holding deliberately short of a functional long-range missile. But if President Trump succeeds in tearing up the agreement, or if Tehran feels threatened, Mr. Lewis warned, Shahrud suggests that Iran could acquire a long-range missile more quickly than has been previously known.
“Like we did with North Korea, we are underestimating how capable they are,” he said, referring to North Korea’s surprisingly rapid development of an ICBM.
“The Iranians are choosing to restrain themselves for political reasons,” Mr. Lewis said, “and if we tell them to go to hell, we’re not going to like what they do.”
‘For How Long’?
In July 2017, a Revolutionary Guards officer named Amir Ali Hajizadeh, in comments to military families, complained that “certain gentlemen” in the government were holding back work on a space-launch rocket that, though “ready for launch,” was being “put into storage because of fear of America.”
“This is unacceptable for us,” Mr. Hajizadeh said. “For how long do we have to humiliate ourselves?”
With Mr. Trump’s exit from the nuclear agreement, hard-liners like Mr. Hajizadeh may be better positioned to push for resuming this work, Ms. Esfandiary said. “The situation has changed, because there’s no cap on their missile work and they have proof that the West doesn’t uphold its commitments,” she said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/23/world/middleeast/iran-missiles.html#

Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:18 pm; edited 1 time in total

ultimatewarrior

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Post n°465

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

ultimatewarrior Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:08 pm

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

AlfaT8 wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Russia won't help Iran nor will China if it starts hostilities it's on its own and good has dead.

Sorry Charly, but there's no chance that Russia and China would not assist in some way, especially Russia.
Another ISIS near their borders, F no.

No they will leave Iran good has dead in that event, you can think otherwise but they will not help it.

Troll harder, American dog.

ultimatewarrior

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Post n°466

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

ultimatewarrior Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:12 pm

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Correct Iran cannot win any conventional fight is it simply to hopeless for them, they may damage or get some aircraft sure but it won't be much.

With our allies, we can simply bring to much power to bare against them.

Garry thinking our Airforce is shit is funny, I didn't think they where that freaking blinded by their BS.

USAF is one of the best in the world, Iran has only a very small amount of modern AD which will be easily destroyed by swarms of tomahawks.

Their older AD is useless, Our pilots are well and highly trained. Considering all the damage we have done, I'd thought people would have known better.

Russia won't help Iran nor will China if it starts hostilities it's on its own and good has dead.

This is simply fact, regardless if you hate the US and want Iran to win. That is just wishful thinking based on emotions.

Are you serious? American kids these days are mostly single children. Let's see how many of their parents are willing to send them to get killed by Kornet anti tank missiles in Iran. I would wager none.

AlfaT8

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Post n°467

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

AlfaT8 Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:18 pm

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

AlfaT8 wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Russia won't help Iran nor will China if it starts hostilities it's on its own and good has dead.

Sorry Charly, but there's no chance that Russia and China would not assist in some way, especially Russia.
Another ISIS near their borders, F no.

No they will leave Iran good has dead in that event, you can think otherwise but they will not help it.

Gotta agree to disagree with you then.

Isos

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Post n°468

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

Isos Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:28 pm

Saudis are not realy a force, that could caunt against Iran.

61 f-15, 53 typhoon, 81 tornado, 167 f15E. 5 E3, 2 Saab 2000 awacs. 24 tankers.

That's a huge air force.

Iran has like 20 mig-29 and 20 f-14. All the rest is from vietnam war era.

Air defence don't win wars.

@tsavo who cares if they have a good picture of the battlefield, they have no weapons that can come close to US carriers. Why do you think soviet developed supersonic bombers and antiship missiles of 1000km range flying at mach 4 in huge quantities.

Iran can't win any war against US. Get over. Once they launch their BM they will be left with nothing. That would be painful for US and KSA but won't destroy them. Right now neither wabt to risk that, but if Iran makes a wrong move they will be destroyed.

Tsavo Lion

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Post n°469

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

Tsavo Lion Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:09 pm

Their MRBMs & new CMs can hit ships in the Arabian, Red & even the E. Med. Seas:
US-Iran standoff 2019- - Page 19 010-3-2-s

https://vitalperspective.typepad.com/vital_perspective_clarity/2006/04/israeli_militar.html

https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/worldarmedforcesforum/iran-unveils-new-long-range-cruise-missile-called--t68588.html

https://fanack.com/iran/history-past-to-present/irans-ballistic-missiles-program/

nomadski

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Post n°470

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

nomadski Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:06 pm

I was thinking that maybe some posters here have anxiety about Iranian missiles hitting yank ships . Are they on these ships now ? Look I suggested also in Syria waters , after yank launch cruise that Russia can launch anti -ship with less than lethal warhead as demonstrator. Nobody killed and little damage . And captain of American ship can say big damage now unreliable, must go to Florida for repair ! So Iranians can settle all this stupid argument by non- lethal warhead . Nobody dead! So yank sailor not get anxiety attack . Ok ? The other way is to give advance warning so ship abandoned. When hit . Is this acceptable? Proves a point to stupid warmonger politicians in US . We all go home ? If agree send code NOMAD to Iran navy .

Also this ICBM of Iran , I almost forgot about it , I think is three stage solid / solid / solid rocket . Quite unusual I think . Yes we have that design . Good work . But problem is political . Damn politics . ( present politician is included ! ) .

SeigSoloyvov

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Post n°471

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

SeigSoloyvov Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:14 pm

@Medo

Russia nor China aren't in a conventional war with us, you need to stop posting this delusional BS.

China doesn't want international conflict. Iran is of no value to China economics.

Putin also isn't going to war over Iran he has made it crystal clear from day one, he doesn't want a wide scale war.

NK and Vene? LOL what are they going to do.

Only Reason NK continues to exist is because of China.

and Vene? they are in our backyard we could wipe them out with ease.

NK and Vene militaries are worthless and amount to nothing on a professional scale.

So stop trying to argue your delusional rants, it's annoying.

If Iran starts a conflict it's dead, period it cannot beat us 1v1 no matter the propaganda BS you and others try and rant on this matter.

Tsavo Lion

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Post n°472

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

Tsavo Lion Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:31 am

China doesn't want international conflict. Iran is of no value to China economics.

BS- she needs Iran for OBOR/BRI as bridge to the ME, esp. via Iraq, Turkey & Syria: The Russia-China strategic partnership – directly involved in linking Belt and Road with the Eurasia Economic Union and also the International North-South Transportation Corridor – considers Turkey and Iran as absolutely indispensable key hubs for the ongoing, multi-layered Eurasia integration process.
A new Turkey-Iran-Qatar geopolitical and economic axis is slowly but surely evolving in Southwest Asia, ever more linked to Russia-China. The thrust is Eurasia integration, visible for instance via a frenzy of railroad building designed to link the New Silk Roads, and the Russia-Iran transportation corridor, to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Red Sea and, eastwards, the Iran-Pakistan corridor to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, one of Belt and Road’s highlights.
This is all being supported by interlocking transportation cooperation agreements involving Turkey-Iran-Qatar and Iran-Iraq-Syria.
The end result not only consolidates Iran as a key Belt and Road connectivity hub and China’s strategic partner, but also by contiguity Turkey – the bridge to Europe. ..In conjunction with his success at the court of the Dragon King, Erdogan now feels emboldened enough to offer his services as mediator between Tehran and the Trump administration – picking up on a suggestion he made to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the G20.
Erdogan would not have made that offer if it had not been discussed previously with Russia and China – which, crucially, are member signatories of the Iran nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA).
It’s easy to see how Russia and China should consider Turkey the perfect mediator: a neighbor of Iran, the proverbial bridge between East and West, and a NATO member. Turkey is certainly much more representative than the EU-3 (France, UK, Germany).
Trump seems to want – or at least gives the impression of imposing – a JCPOA 2.0, without an Obama signature. The Russia-China partnership could easily call his bluff, after clearing it with Tehran, by offering a new negotiating table including Turkey. Even if the ineffective – in every sense – EU-3 remained, there would be real counterbalance in the form of Russia, China and Turkey.
Out of all these important moves in the geopolitical chessboard, one motivation stands out among top players: Eurasian integration cannot significantly progress without challenging the Trumpian sanction obsession.
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/07/article/sultan-shines-in-the-court-of-the-dragon-king/

Putin also isn't going to war over Iran he has made it crystal clear from day one, he doesn't want a wide scale war.

no, he didn't, besides, going to war & helping 1 side isn't the same thing. He didn't say something that can be understood as "we won't help Iran in any war with the US"

Only Reason NK continues to exist is because of China.

they only recently improved relations- with nukes & BMs they don't need China, except for trade & diplomatic support. By the same token, Colombia, SK & Israel continue to exist thanks to US mil. & economic support.

and Vene? they are in our backyard we could wipe them out with ease.

but at what cost? Cuba is even closer, yet F. Castro died a natural death long after JFK got his head blown off.

NK and Vene militaries are worthless and amount to nothing on a professional scale.

tell that to Seoul & other SK residents who r within range of NK long range artillery.

So stop trying to argue your delusional rants, it's annoying

so is ur stinking gung ho hubris!

If Iran starts a conflict it's dead, period it cannot beat us 1v1 no matter the propaganda BS you and others try and rant on this matter.

Iran with help of Russia, Turkey & possibly China will not start, but finish a conflict. They don't want another mess like those u left in Yugoslavia, Iraq, Syria & Afghanistan. https://fpif.org/trumps-bluster-diplomacy/

Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:38 am; edited 6 times in total (Reason for editing : add a quote)

SeigSoloyvov

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Post n°473

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

SeigSoloyvov Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:51 am

Your article is cute but full of many bogus claims like Turkey for example. Nor does China's project the Silk Rod go through Iran.

Oh he did, maybe he would supply some weapons sure. But that wouldn't change anything, Putin wouldn't commit ground forces against us. he isn't stupid, so get used to it Russia isn't going to war over Iran it's a joke people here think they will.

Improving relations means ditto, even then it's all surface level crap nothing substantial has happened long as he has short range ICBM's with those nukes he will never reach the point he wants with us.

Very easy cost we can bomb them back to the stone age in a week, blockade their points, make the situation so terrible in that country the people get rid of him for us. The average person is so weak-willed you take away something they need and they will do just about anything to get it back.

Let Iran and NK attack them again it will only lead to their destruction, you act like they will win. Naw they may hurt, they may leave a bruise but they will in the end die.

Tsavo Lion

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Post n°474

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

Tsavo Lion Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:37 am

Nor does China's project the Silk Road go through Iran.

A branch of it will go there, as in the ancient times:
http://www.iranchamber.com/history/articles/silk_road.php

https://www.theverge.com/2016/2/15/10999826/first-train-iran-china-silk-road-trade-route
US-Iran standoff 2019- - Page 19 Z

Putin saved Bashar Assad w/o going to an all-out war with Israel, Turkey, & the US. The Shiites & probably other Muslims from all over the World, incl. from Russia & Central Asia, will come in their thousands to Iran to fight the US & Israeli proxies. Russia only needs to help with weapons, training, S-300/400 crews, Intel, logistics, & other non-lethal support. The US may bomb, but w/o ground invasion they won't win on their terms. A new regime may emerge worse than the 1 there now. Israel defeated Arab regimes in several wars; Iran stopped the Iraq invasion & defeated KSA & UAE in Yemen & Syria so far, & will defeat (or at least not lose to) them again if a big war comes.
do ur homework before posting garbage next time!

GarryB

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Post n°475

Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

GarryB Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:19 am

Garry thinking our Airforce is shit is funny, I didn't think they where that freaking blinded by their BS.

Love the ego... your air force looks great when it is bombing from 10km up targets defended by air defence systems from the 50s and 60s, but you really are not used to fighting a dedicated enemy.

When the enemy can fire back then things will become interesting, but as I said all your females will suddenly get mysteriously pregnant and will need to be replaced to start with.

Your high opinion of yourself and low opinion of others will lead to serious trouble for you, but don't listen to reason now...

I see America is trying to get Germany and France to send troops to Syria... do they want replacements for when they leave perchance?

AFAIK Germany has already declined that offer...

Their older AD is useless, Our pilots are well and highly trained. Considering all the damage we have done, I'd thought people would have known better.

Oh big deal... it is easy to break things... especially in poor places... you can really break third world countries from in a bad way to largely screwed... we are all so impressed because dropping bombs from 10km is just so hard.

No they will leave Iran good has dead in that event, you can think otherwise but they will not help it.

As Medo says.... Russia is in Syria because they knew they could fight ISIS in Syria or in Russia later on when ISIS took over complete control of Syria.

The US is clearly more than an economic rival... it is expressly making itself so... so what option does Russia have but to support those countries that the US is trying to destroy?

61 f-15, 53 typhoon, 81 tornado, 167 f15E. 5 E3, 2 Saab 2000 awacs. 24 tankers.

That's a huge air force.

On paper it is impressive, but what sort of quality goes into training and practise... will be entertaining to see how they stack up against Iran to be honest, but if the Americans have any brains they will keep the Saudi Air Force out of it because f-15s and tornados getting shot down all over the place is bad for sales of western gear...

Iran can't win any war against US. Get over. Once they launch their BM they will be left with nothing. That would be painful for US and KSA but won't destroy them. Right now neither wabt to risk that, but if Iran makes a wrong move they will be destroyed.

You mean like all of NATO destroyed Serbia over a three month period that was supposed to take less than a week?

Look I suggested also in Syria waters , after yank launch cruise that Russia can launch anti -ship with less than lethal warhead as demonstrator. Nobody killed and little damage .

Even if you replace the HE warhead of a Yakhont missile with concrete the kinetic damage to a ship will be dramatic and people will be killed... a cargo ship is enormous and might have 30 people on board but your average US aircraft carrier has 5-6 thousand people on board... besides firing an inert anti ship missile at a US ship hands them a new model Russian anti ship missile largely intact... WTF would you do that for?

That would be like making a stealth drone that costs more than an F-35 and flying into enemy airspace... wait...

Russia nor China aren't in a conventional war with us, you need to stop posting this delusional BS.

The active sanctions of Russia and China and those that trade with them is actually an act of war.

China doesn't want international conflict. Iran is of no value to China economics.

Nobody does... except america.

Cockroaches survive best under war conditions...

Putin also isn't going to war over Iran he has made it crystal clear from day one, he doesn't want a wide scale war.

And the best way to prevent a war might be to sell Iran 400 new Su-30 fighter planes as well as new AAMs and some new SAMs too... not to mention anti ship missiles and shore launched long range torpedoes...

If Iran starts a conflict it's dead, period it cannot beat us 1v1 no matter the propaganda BS you and others try and rant on this matter.

Yeah, on paper you would thrash Serbia and Vietnam and Korea and Somalia... but it didn't happen did it?

Very easy cost we can bomb them back to the stone age in a week, blockade their points, make the situation so terrible in that country the people get rid of him for us. The average person is so weak-willed you take away something they need and they will do just about anything to get it back.

I think Madeline Allbright said Serbia will capitulate in 3 days over Kosovo... in the end NATO had to grovel to Moscow to ask them to get Serbia to the table... and then you double crossed the Russians... so I am guessing that wont work this time...

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