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    P-800 Oniks and BrahMos

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Fri Nov 04, 2011 12:31 am

    Bet you Gaddafi wished he had bought such things 5 years ago instead of sucking up to the Europeans.
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    Post  GarryB Fri Nov 04, 2011 1:02 am

    I should add that the range of the export Yakhont is 300km and my comment about protecting 600km around your border meant that in addition to your land territory it would protect 300km in each direction beyond the beach.

    Its low flight altitude and high speed make it a very serious threat to any vessel.

    On paper several systems might be able to intercept it, but then on paper the British should not have lost any ships to Exocets in the Falklands as they had that same weapon in service themselves and the Sea Wolf should have been able to deal with it.

    In the event their SAMs were not as useful as their decoy countermeasures systems, and they were very lucky that most of the Exocets seem to have not exploded properly.
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    Post  Austin Mon Nov 07, 2011 6:18 am

    GarryB wrote:I should add that the range of the export Yakhont is 300km and my comment about protecting 600km around your border meant that in addition to your land territory it would protect 300km in each direction beyond the beach.

    I have been told recently by reliable people that the true range of Brahmos is 600 km ( please dont quote me for it ) , I am assuming this is an all high altitude flight with dive to attack trajectory.

    So i would think Russian Onisk has similar range atleast 500 km that is good to replace the Shipwreck , with the advantage it can be use for land attack if it uses Brahmos software stuff.

    As far as interception of Yakhont/Brahmos/Onisk goes it will be tough ball , all will depend on how well they are tracked in flight and how good the sensor capability is , if a AESA/PESA could track it well then i think systems like Aster-15/30.Barak-8,Shtil-1/9M96 or even Sea Sparrow will tackle it effectively , specially if its not a mass attack.
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    Post  GarryB Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:12 am

    So i would think Russian Onisk has similar range atleast 500 km that is good to replace the Shipwreck , with the advantage it can be use for land attack if it uses Brahmos software stuff.

    I have been told that the Oniks is actually larger and heavier than Yakhont and actually has a range of 700km or more and is replacing Granit.

    The Brahmos has the advantage of land attack capabilities over the Oniks and Yakhont, but I believe the Russian Navy will only use it as an anti ship missile and will use Klub for land attack.

    if a AESA/PESA could track it well then i think systems like Aster-15/30.Barak-8,Shtil-1/9M96 or even Sea Sparrow will tackle it effectively , specially if its not a mass attack.

    Engaging very low flying targets is problematic, and very fast low flying targets become even more difficult.

    You would need early warning and time to prepare systems and even then you make one mistake and it will get through.

    On paper Exocet should have been no problem at all for British ships in the early 1980s, but in practise it was a real threat.
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    Post  IronsightSniper Sat Nov 12, 2011 3:10 am

    In theory the USN could shoot down an Onyx, but like Garry says, it'd require early warning first. Which, actually wouldn't be that hard since a missile flying at high speeds at that low altitude will generate plenty of friction which will make it a flying potato to FLIRs (Visual Horizon isn't that far off), though, that would mean a very, very short period to launch say, an ESSM at it.

    Overall, if you want to protect a ship against sea-skimming high-speed death machines:

    1. Get bigger radars
    2. Get faster reacting missiles
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sat Nov 12, 2011 12:28 pm

    When designing weapons you generally create a requirements list based on what you have and what potential enemies have and what you want done.

    The Yakhont is an export missile, so its range cannot exceed 300km and its payload cannot exceed 500kgs.

    The missile it is based on had no such limits and its design requirements were directed at the USN.

    The assumption was that with its air cover it would detect incoming missiles at very long range so from the outset the weapon needs speed to compress the time window for successful interception.

    The intent was to overwhelm the defences and the combination of speed and numbers were to be used to achieve that goal.

    They didn't design a vessel and then put missiles on it they designed missiles and decided how many weapons they would need for a viable attack.

    The Kirov has 20 Granits and the Oscar class SSGNs have 24 because they will use salvos of missiles in an attack on a real fight with a carrier group.

    Against a single vessel one missile has a good chance and is a real threat.

    Against a full carrier group one missile has a chance but it is a small one just because hitting targets very close to the water is hard, but a modern carrier group is well protected and if it detects the threat it has a good chance of stopping it.

    The whole purpose of a carrier group is airborne early warning of threats, plus aircraft that can intercept hostile vessels before they get close, plus AEGIS cruisers with plenty of long range missiles.

    In the real world, like the Falklands and in the Vincennes incident however problems can occur. (note in the Vincennes incident there was a malfunction with the SAM so the final attack was delayed about a minute and a half before a missile could be fired... in the event it didn't matter to the USN ship because the threat was an Iranian Airbus, but had it been a missile that problem would obviously have been more serious.)
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    Post  Guest Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:31 pm

    IronsightSniper wrote:In theory the USN could shoot down an Onyx, but like Garry says, it'd require early warning first. Which, actually wouldn't be that hard since a missile flying at high speeds at that low altitude will generate plenty of friction which will make it a flying potato to FLIRs (Visual Horizon isn't that far off), though, that would mean a very, very short period to launch say, an ESSM at it.

    Overall, if you want to protect a ship against sea-skimming high-speed death machines:

    1. Get bigger radars
    2. Get faster reacting missiles

    Very Happy
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    Post  Russian Patriot Sun Apr 01, 2012 9:21 pm

    Russia and India are in talks to jointly develop a hypersonic cruise missile and will soon agree on a general outline of the design, the head of the BrahMos Indian-Russian cruise missile program, Praveen Pathak, said on Friday at the Defexpo defense show in Delhi.

    "In the near future, we will set up a joint working group which will work out the parameters of the missile in cooperation with developers, and also decide how much each side will contribue to the project," Pathak said.

    The weapon will be capable of flying at Mach 5-Mach 7 speeds, he said.

    "We want to create a weapon which would not differ much from the existing BrahMos missile in weight and dimensions, so that it could be used in existing launchers on ships or mobile launchers. In this case it would not take too much work to convert such systems to hypersonic," he said.

    "Russia has a longstanding interest in high-speed weaponry and scramjet propulsion, which an Indo-Russian programme could draw on," said Douglas Barrie, air warfare analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The design of a genuine hypersonic missile, given the performance requirements, would likely be 'new' rather than using the present 3M55 Onyx/Brahmos design which uses a ramjet for sustained supersonic flight," he added.

    India's Defence Research and Development Organization has previously displayed a demonstrator model of Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator at airshows. NPO Mashinostroeniye, India's partner in the BrahMos program, developed a hypersonic missile known as 3M25 Meteorit, but it was never deployed.

    India will also carry out the first test-firing of the air-launched variant of the BrahMos Russian-Indian supersonic cruise missile by the end of this year, Pathak said.

    "We hope by the end of the year we'll carry out the first launch from an aircraft. It will be an air-launch," he said.

    Work on adapting the air-launched variant of BrahMos to arm India's Su-30MKI aircraft is being undertaken for the Indian air force, he said. Several aircraft have already been modified to carry the weapon, he added.

    Su-30MKI (Flanker-H) multirole fighter

    The Indian air force has already taken delivery of enough of the ground-launched variant to equip two battalions. The missiles will be based near India's borders to strike at enemy airfields, air defense sites and radar stations, said Pathak.

    India tested a ground-launched BrahMos earlier this month. "The missile flew its maximum range, 290 km. The terminal phase of the flight was a steep diving trajectory. This is one of the requirements for the ground forces," he said, adding that a steep diving attack profile was necessary for hitting targets in mountainous terrain.

    BrahMos, a derivative of the Russian NPO Mashinostroeniye 3M55 Yakhont naval cruise missile, is one of the most capable weapons of its class, combining long-range (up to 290 km), high speed (up to Mach 2.Cool a heavy warhead of up to 250 kg, a low radar profile and a variable attack profile, including low level flight down to 10 meters and up to 14,000 meters. The weapon operates on a fire-and-forget principle.

    The ground-launched variant weighs around three tons at launch.

    http://www.en.ria.ru/world/20120330/172478672.html
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    Post  GarryB Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:02 am

    "Russia has a longstanding interest in high-speed weaponry and scramjet propulsion, which an Indo-Russian programme could draw on," said Douglas Barrie, air warfare analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The design of a genuine hypersonic missile, given the performance requirements, would likely be 'new' rather than using the present 3M55 Onyx/Brahmos design which uses a ramjet for sustained supersonic flight," he added.

    I disagree with the last bit, the only 'new' part that is needed is a change from ramjet propulsion to scramjet propulsion and improved surface protection from heat... either surface cooling by pumping fuel through the skin or the use of ablative material.

    Otherwise the missiles are already designed for high speed flight it was an engine limitation that limited their top speed, so replacing that with an engine able to operate at much higher flight speeds is really the only solution needed.

    They might change the design a little as square cheek inlets would be easier to control their shape/internal geometry than the original circular Mig-21 like air intake, but otherwise keeping as much of the rest the same will allow compatibility with existing standard launchers like the UKSK bins to be fitted to all new and upgraded ships in the Russian Navy and also fitted to submarines as well...

    This means that when the new missile becomes available it can be immediately deployed in numbers and of course an enemy force will just have to guess what they are carrying...
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    Post  Russian Patriot Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:49 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    "Russia has a longstanding interest in high-speed weaponry and scramjet propulsion, which an Indo-Russian programme could draw on," said Douglas Barrie, air warfare analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The design of a genuine hypersonic missile, given the performance requirements, would likely be 'new' rather than using the present 3M55 Onyx/Brahmos design which uses a ramjet for sustained supersonic flight," he added.

    I disagree with the last bit, the only 'new' part that is needed is a change from ramjet propulsion to scramjet propulsion and improved surface protection from heat... either surface cooling by pumping fuel through the skin or the use of ablative material.

    Otherwise the missiles are already designed for high speed flight it was an engine limitation that limited their top speed, so replacing that with an engine able to operate at much higher flight speeds is really the only solution needed.

    They might change the design a little as square cheek inlets would be easier to control their shape/internal geometry than the original circular Mig-21 like air intake, but otherwise keeping as much of the rest the same will allow compatibility with existing standard launchers like the UKSK bins to be fitted to all new and upgraded ships in the Russian Navy and also fitted to submarines as well...

    This means that when the new missile becomes available it can be immediately deployed in numbers and of course an enemy force will just have to guess what they are carrying...







    Well it gets more interesting:

    BrahMos develops anti-aircraft variant of the missile

    IRNA - Islamic Republic News Agency

    New Delhi, April 1, IRNA -- Indo-Russian joint venture BrahMos has developed an anti-aircraft carrier variant of the 290-km supersonic cruise missile.

    'We have achieved the capability to attack aircraft carriers using the supersonic vertical diving variant of the missile and after demonstrating the capability recently with high precision, we will now offer this to the Indian Navy,' BrahMos chief A Sivathanu Pillai said here Saturday, pti reported. He was asked to comment on the recent two successful test firings of the missile.

    Pillai said the test firing for the steep dive variant was done for the Army and after its success, the path is clear for the induction of the fourth regiment of the missile for mountain warfare.

    The army has plans of deploying this missile regiment in the Northeast along the borders with China and the proposal was accorded sanction in a Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) meeting last year.

    The development comes in the backdrop of China's first aircraft carrier undergoing scientific testing and training exercises ahead of its commissioning in August.

    The BrahMos chief said the tests were also to evaluate certain new systems of the missile, which are produced by the Indian industries so that bulk production clearance can be given for integration.

    'This will facilitate faster induction in the Indian armed forces,' he said.

    Pillai said with the Indian forces planning to induct a number of new aircraft such as the 126 multirole combat fighter jets and the MiG 29K naval fighters, BrahMos was considering developing a smaller version of the BrahMos missile for them.

    At present, the company is developing an air-launched version of the Su-30MKI, which falls in the heavy weight category among fighter jets.

    2160**1771
    Islamic Republic News Agency/IRNA NewsCode: 80057140

    http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/india/2012/india-120401-irna03.htm?_m=3n.002a.469.dd0ao031i6.f99
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    Post  GarryB Tue Apr 03, 2012 1:31 am

    Interesting.

    A mach 3 target that performs manouvers would be a tricky target even at medium or high altitude so a steep dive at the target could be a viable option for use against ships.

    The problem there is that the incoming threat will be detected at long range so it needs to use its speed to evade and SAMs directed at it.

    For a land attack weapon the vertical dive is for targets in cities with targets between tall buildings that are normally difficult targets for air power, and also targets in mountains where some targets would be hard to hit due to terrain.

    For a hypersonic scramjet powered Brahmos II a vertical dive would be even more useful because its speed will make interception even more difficult.

    To make it clear to intercept a target it is not sufficient to know where the target is, because by the time the interceptor reaches that location the target will have moved on. The faster the target the further it will have moved on.

    Increase speed of the target means increased lead of aim for the interceptor.

    If the target is a boring artillery shell that has been fired and follows a very predictible path then interception is fairly straight forward. With a target moving at mach 7, or 320m/s x 7 or 2.24km/s that means if the target is T minus 3 seconds from interception you interceptor needs to be well on its way to being at a point about 6.5km in front of where the target is right now... it needs to get there in 3 seconds time... and if it is just half a second late or early then it will miss by a kilometre or more.

    If you think of the interception point as being a big long stick... the end of which is where the target will be when the interceptor intercepts the further away the interceptor is the longer the stick is because the more time the interceptor will need to get to the intercept point.

    Now imagine a 20 degree turn swinging that stick to the left for just 0.5 of a second... the defence will detect the deviation in trajectory and recalculate in real time the change in interception point and immediately command the interceptor to change direction for the new interception point, but what happens if the incoming target then turns back on course and then turns 20 degrees to the right... a 40 degree sweep of that stick that is several kilometres long means a shift in interception point of several kilometres, should the defence now send the interceptor immediately to this new interception point or should it risk waiting to see if it changes direction again... it could also climb or descend or perform a combination of manoeuvres that could shift the interception box dozens of kilometres at a time with the interceptor manoeuvring hard to get to the exact precise place at the right time.

    All this manoeuvring will change the speed performance of both the interceptor and the target which will also effect the interception position.

    It would be a challenge.

    The idea of a smaller Brahmos for lighter aircraft would be interesting too.

    I rather suspect the Oniks, which the Yakhont is based on, was designed for a flight range of 400km or perhaps even up to 600km range so there should probably be room for a significant reduction in size and weight with a range limit of 300km. I would suspect the size of the Yakhont was kept the same to ensure compatibility of launchers and systems.


    Of course with the late model Kh-31s with 250km range and 90kg warheads you could certainly argue that mini Brahmos has been available for a while. Obviously with a 90kg warhead if you want to use it as a dedicated anti carrier weapon that a nuclear warhead would be mandatory, but then if you are firing on carriers then that means there is something very serious happening.
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    Post  Austin Sat Feb 09, 2013 11:24 am

    Indo-Russian Supersonic Cruise Missile, BrahMos - From Concept To Product

    Dr. Sivathanu Pillai, speaking at the Aero India 2013 Airshow Seminar


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    Post  Austin Fri Aug 09, 2013 6:55 am

    Russian supersonic missiles behave like wolves

    In that article Onyx range is mentioned as more than 372.8 miles which is around 600 km , So Brahmos should be around that range if MTCR is not clipping it also the wolf like hunting capability should be there in Brahmos too ...a legacy of Shipwreck.
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    Post  ricky123 Fri Aug 09, 2013 10:10 am

    is this the reason why russian wont induct brahmos in their navy ? why they went in JV with india if they were not planning to buy those missiles themselves ?censored 
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    Post  GarryB Fri Aug 09, 2013 10:47 am

    They will likely induct Oniks and then Zirconium when it is ready... think of it in the same way as they didn't put the Su-30MKI into Russian service either, but many of the things they learned joint developing the Su-30MKI they incorporated into their other upgrades like Su-35 etc.

    Asking why they don't buy Brahmos is like asking them why they don't use Yakhont instead of Oniks...
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    Post  ricky123 Fri Aug 09, 2013 11:56 am

    GarryB wrote:They will likely induct Oniks and then Zirconium when it is ready... think of it in the same way as they didn't put the Su-30MKI into Russian service either, but many of the things they learned joint developing the Su-30MKI they incorporated into their other upgrades like Su-35 etc.

    Asking why they don't buy Brahmos is like asking them why they don't use Yakhont instead of Oniks...
    but isnt brahmos better then oniks ?
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    Post  Austin Fri Aug 09, 2013 12:02 pm

    If Oniks range is truly 600 km plus then Brahmos with 300 km MTCR restricted range will be of little interest to Russian Navy.

    But they can still use Brahmos on their Corvette 20385 as 300 km range is good for corvette class ships.
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    Post  ricky123 Fri Aug 09, 2013 7:12 pm


    Cheaper Russian options

    One of the biggest hurdles for BrahMos Aerospace to convert those interests into orders will be availability of cheaper Russian Built P-800 Oniks (Yakhont) anti-ship cruise missile, BrahMos is reportedly based on P-800 Oniks which has 300Km range and carries same range as the BrahMos. Russians have been having back door talks with many prospective customers of BrahMos to lure them to buy Russian Built P-800 Oniks, Even though BrahMos is technically more advance and incorporates stealth features, better accuracy, navigation and also features manoeuvrability at supersonic speed to hit moving targets making it only Supersonic missile with this feature in the world, also making it harder to intercept by current anti-missile systems. When Pillai informed that BrahMos cannot be intercepted in next 20 years recently in a public event, he was not bragging about the systems, but just mentioning technologically how BrahMos can defeat current generation of Anti Missile systems, but very same technological edge which makes BrahMos more potent missile over Yakhont but it also makes BrahMos more expensive than Yakhont, making it less affordable to many prospective customers.

    http://idrw.org/?p=25346
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    Post  Austin Sat Aug 10, 2013 8:21 am

    Typical idrw analysis BS , here is what pillai said

    BrahMos cruise sparks interest

    HYDERABAD, July 30. (Itar-Tass) - Fourteen countries have already expressed interest in buying different modifications of a BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, CEO and Managing Director of the Russian-Indian joint venture BrahMos Aerospace A. Sivathanu Pillai told reporters on Tuesday.

    “As far as I understand Russian authorities have nothing against such exports and the Indian government has final say,” he said, declining to disclose potential customers.

    A. Sivathanu Pillai took part in BrahMos Industry Consortium Meet-2013, a conference devoted to public-private partnership in India’s defence industry, of which Brahmos Aerospace is a prime example.
    ( via itar-tass )
    The total amount of orders missiles of different versions of a supersonic cruise missile "BrahMos" naval, military and air forces of India today has reached Rs 250 billion / $ 4.2 billion /. This was today told reporters the president of the Russian-Indian venture "BrahMos Aerospace" / BrahMos Aerospace /, which is developing missiles Sivathanu Pillai.

    "By 2015 is expected to total orders of 450 billion rupees / $ 7.5 billion," - he said, without becoming, however, to disclose details of all orders.
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    Post  TheArmenian Sat Aug 10, 2013 8:22 am

    http://tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/content/201308050923-n60n.htm

    In the above recent video from tvzvezda, it mentions that Russia is acquiring Onyx missiles. It also mentions that the missile has a range Greater" than 300 km. For exact translation, we must ask a Russian speaker.
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    Post  GarryB Sat Aug 10, 2013 11:18 am

    but isnt brahmos better then oniks ?
    It is better than Yakhont in every way... Yakhont and Onix are anti ship only in their original forms

    Brahmos is land attack and anti ship... it is also limited in payload to less than 500kgs and in range to less than 300km.

    The Yakhont is also limited to a payload of less than 500kgs and a flight range of less than 300km.

    Onix is what Yakhont is based on, but Yakhont is a dumbed down reduced range and reduce payload version of Onix.

    Actually sorry about the spelling... Yakhont actually means Jewel and an Onyx is a jewel... just like Zirconium is a precious stone too.

    Onyx probably has more than double the range of the brahmos because it is the missile they are using to replace the Granit (granite... stone).

    The original Onyx would have had old electronics... but then so did Granit and it was pretty formidable too.

    The new build models of Onyx will have much more sophisticated electronics, but likely still just for anti ship use as their standard land attack missile is the Kalibre with a range of either 2,500km or 5,000km in its new version depending upon who you speak to... note 2,500km was its range in the 1980s when it was called Granat... SS-N-21 note the spelling difference from the Granit.

    of cheaper Russian Built P-800 Oniks (Yakhont) anti-ship cruise missile, BrahMos is reportedly based on P-800 Oniks which has 300Km range and carries same range as the BrahMos. Russians have been having back door talks with many prosp
    He is talking about Yakhont and Onyx like they are the same missile... they are not. Onyx is NOT for export. Yakhont is the reduced performance missile that is for export and is the missile the Brahmos is based on.

    I suspect Brahmos is not selling like hot cakes because India wants to get them into service first and that is their priority.
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    Post  Vann7 Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:43 pm

    ricky123 wrote:
    GarryB wrote:They will likely induct Oniks and then Zirconium when it is ready... think of it in the same way as they didn't put the Su-30MKI into Russian service either, but many of the things they learned joint developing the Su-30MKI they incorporated into their other upgrades like Su-35 etc.

    Asking why they don't buy Brahmos is like asking them why they don't use Yakhont instead of Oniks...
    but isnt brahmos better then oniks ?
    I don't think Russia will use missiles inferior to what India have ,even if they are shared project. A reason for Russia not using brahmos , my best guess is not only for its limited range of 300km but also is not safe to use the same technology that India use ,since India is not a 100% loyal ally to Russia ,they buy weapons to US and Israel and other NATO members and had have been neutral in times Russia asked them for support. So is risky to their nation security to use weapons they fully have no control of its security and that India plans to sell to NATO countries ,that for sure they will look to reverse engineer.

    Also , if im not mistaken there is a weapon treaty between US and Russia where neither one can sell ,or help in the creation of Cruise Missiles or Rockets that exceed 300km range. This is why no NATO country (aside US) have anti-ship missiles or rocket system beyond the 300km range. I think also apply to air defense systems.  SAme with Russian Allies.. all exports never pass the 300km range.

    So range alone make the Onix way better anti-ship missiles for Russia than Brahmos.. since lets not forget USA have harpoons? with 1,200km range. In case of a real war India will not have a chance to fight an enemy at the sea that can fire a hundred of anti-ship missiles from 600 -1000 km away. Their Navy will be first destroyed before they have a chance to get in combat range that is if they rely only on brahmos missiles. So India will have to rely on their Navy combat jets to counter the limitations of their range of attack with their cruise missiles.

    And when it come to very long range attacks , there is also another problem for brahmos but also could be to any european NATO member if they develop anti-ship missiles missiles. . that is precision. You cannot hit anything beyond the horizon that is moving ,unless you have a strong satellite network around the planet. And so far only US and Russia have enough satellites to cover all the planet and upgrade the guidance of any sensor and keep its precision under 10m of any target. I think China is the next country with more satellites in space but still way behind of US and Russia. and somewhere i read the precision of their satellites at best today is in the 50m. You need at least 20-30 satellites orbiting earth for any military use and long range missiles. So for Russia it will be very easy to lure away any buyer of brahmos by just explaining them , that still the missile will depend on Russian navigational network to operate at long distances.

    developing Anti-ship missiles , ICBM or any rocket for military purposes beyond the horizon require either they be a space power and have a full network of satellites working or that they allied to a power that is one. expect in the next few couple of years truly revolutionary weapons from Russia with extreme long range and precision never before seen.

    here is a good read of Russia Glonass modernization program until 2020

    http://www.insidegnss.com/node/3353

    TR1
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    Post  TR1 Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:21 pm

    Harpoons do not have range anywhere near 1200km.

    You are thinking of Naval Anti-ship Tomahawk, which was retired in any case.
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    P-800 Oniks and BrahMos - Page 2 Empty Aster-30 against P-800 'Oniks'

    Post  Deep Throat Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:44 am

    Is MBDA's Aster 30 capable of intercepting P 800 Oniks and Brahmos ?


    In the Dubai Air Show , MBDA is showcasing the Aster 30 as an interceptor which in their words can intercept sea skimming cruise missiles like P 800 and Brahmos . ( They are actually showing a model of the Type 45 Destroyer with the Aster 30 on it ) .

    Are their any credibility in such assessments ? Is the P 800 or Brahmos actually vulnerable to the Aster 30 ?
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    Post  TR1 Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:08 pm

    Yes.

    Now can it intercept a salvo with certainty? That is the real question....

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