The Situation in the Ukraine. #25

The "ceasefire". In LNR 526 ukrops violations since start of "ceasefire". In DNR, tho the briefing yesterday spoke about even more ukrops forces moving to the front, in particular almost another brigade to Gorlovka and multiple Pion and other heavy artillery batteries to Gorlovka and Mariupol, no mention, for whatever reason, of ukrops shelling at Avdeevka, Spartak, Kuibishevsky and Oktyabr in the South. Also, tho Peskov has denied any knowledge of events in PMR, if they unilaterlly accede to RF, then this could be a trigger for events to change rapidly. The small seeming protests/rioting in Kiev and other parts of 404 do not go away, and in fact seems set to escalate as now the channels NewsOne and 112 have been warned that they will be attacked same as Inter was. A number of Inter staff were hospitalised in the latest attack. Interestingly, that the attackers were known, and all veterans from nationalist battalions, and six arrested on the day, all six were released without charges and no action against the nationalists. This is essentially a low level civil war between oligarchs/politicians in 404 with the radikals acting for both sides and as a third force when it suits them.

JohninMK wrote:
A bit on Spartak from DONi

I looked, and see DONi is now official news agency, good, as I think DNR was lagging behind in providing news in English directly and officially, and with new citizen Putkonen often from the front line.

franco wrote:The Ukraine Navy yesterday challenged and forced the Russian Black Sea fleet to back down  

Seeing is believing

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2117945.html

Delusional beyond belief. Perhaps they think they can stop this, the culmination of "Kavkaz-2016" in Crimea. I will not bet against all this appearing off the coast of Odessa one day in the future, but hopefully they will have unopossed landing.

Few days ago I sort of jokingly and quietly said about rumors of coup in Kiev next month. Today Basurin is saying about possibility of coup in Kiev...


And this follows from that. Kiev channel "NewsOne", which is now under threat with "112" from attack by radikals, publish a survey most days, often with former minister Evgen Chervonenko being the talking head. The last survey published was about Ukraine/Russia relations. 78% of the 20,000 who took the survey said that relations between Ukraine and Russia should be improved. Chervenenko is saying that reasons for this are large unemployment, 500,000 lost jobs directly due to the political difficulties, and that people are tired of endless problems and unemployment. Chervenenko also says that the agriculture situation is terrible [in Donbass it is extremely good btw] and that there could be large protests as people know they are being deceived by the government, and that if things do not improve there will be chaos [but the situation will only get worse]. This survey can now not be found on NewsOne, only the one from two days ago and further back, and this info is from those who read it while it was still visible. However, there is a difference between bitching on a poll and taking to the streets....

one of the most interesting videos of Russia military ,defending its waters..
This time defending Crimea..

In Khmelnytskiy oblast of 404 there are protests today outside a dairy because farmers have not been paid for their milk for several months. This has also been an ongoing problem in Kherson oblast all this year. https://112.ua/video/akciya-protesta-krestyan-pod-stenami-molokozavoda-v-hmelnickoy-oblasti-cherez-zadolzhennost-v-oplate-za-moloko-210357.html

I'm not sure what is burning in the backgroud as 112 have changed their video system to prevent viewing with adblockers and I'm not turning them off except for really important events.


Last night Savchenko was involved in auto accident when drunk driver rammed into back of her vehicle. She was uninjured, which given her trouble making I am not sure is a good or bad thing....
https://112.ua/avarii-chp/nochyu-avtomobil-s-nardepom-nadezhdoy-savchenko-popal-v-dtp-337724.html

I cannot remember if I said this here or elsewhere, but I have at some time in the past said that one of the reasons for success of VSN is that in cases, particulary tanks, artillery and other more technical areas, it was experienced grandads fighting against ukrops recruits. As VSN was formed of volunteers, then men of all ages stepped forward, while ukrops formations where filled with recruits, which is normal, but was a liability. The tank crew in this photo fought at the battle of Elenovka in January 2015 and then at Logvinovo in February during the battle for Debaltsevo. From left to right as we view them and their age at the time of battle. Andrei Zaitsev, gunner, 39. Valery Bebko, commander, 46. Sergei Rogulenko, driver, 60. All of these are local men.

Glad somebody did a full translation of Tsarev's article. I was going to do a short synopsis of the main points as it is so interesting. IMO, that while Tsarev is a bit pompous at times and also responsible for some stuffing that emerges, on this I think he has hit nail on head. That these groupings, even between some oligarchs/politicians who would probably prefer not to join forces, is occuring, and that they are resorting to force by proxy, the attacks on Inter and the threat of attack on other channels, and the stirring up of people over various issues around 404, is a sign that the situation is close to exploding. This is the reason for "rumors of coup in October". Not necessary an armed coup, tanks on Kreshchatik, but that Poroshenko will be told to leave and will have little option other than use armed force against business/political adversaries and so bring down all 404 in blood.

JohninMK wrote:A voice of reason but in the wilderness. This is about the delayed £1.7B.

The Russian representative at the IMF will vote against granting a new loan to Ukraine, RIA Novosti reported citing Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

“Today we will instruct our representative at the International Monetary Fund to vote against a decision to lend more money to Ukraine because we see it as running counter to the Fund’s standing rules,” Siluanov said during a news briefing on Monday.

He also described as “unfounded” an earlier statement by the IMF that Ukraine had allegedly met all the necessary requirements for obtaining another tranche, adding that the IMF had violated its own regulations. Siluanov said that, as a full member of the IMF, Russia had the right to vote and would stand by its position.

Russia to Submit Results of Debt Talks With Ukraine to IMF on Monday “Just how exactly [the IMF managing directors] are going to decide is hard to say. All I know is that the majority of them may think otherwise and that Russia’s voice will not be decisive there,” Siluanov noted.

Read more: https://sputniknews.com/russia/20160912/1045225012/imf-ukraine-loan.html

Very right argument.

Was hoping for some entertainment today at the start of the trial of fifteen regional heads and deputy heads of "Svoboda" for the fighting, four deaths and 150 wounded at Verkhovna Rada on August 31 last year. Unfortunatley it has been postponed until September 22 as two of the defendents did not appear. There is also possibility trial may be postponed for three years. Tyagnibok is making thinly veiled threats and that the courts must be fair, or answer to the public, but he has nothing behind him these days except a few thugs. Yesterday members of "Azov" were protesting outside court in support of their members who were arrested due to the rioting at the construction site. While they were protesting they got hit by a barrage of tomatoes thrown from nearby buildings. There is a video but I cannot find it right now.

In more important news, the other day a rabid cat bit three people in Sumy.

Plotnitsky today ordered a strict prohibition on VSN 2nd Corps from opening fire in response to any attacks and provocations by Ukranian Army and National Guard from midnight tonight until midnight tomorrow. http://glava-lnr.su/content/zayavlenie-glavy-luganskoy-narodnoy-respubliki-iv-plotnickogo

At the same time Zakharchenko has issued the same decree to 1st Corps http://www.novorosinform.org/news/60496

Total waste of time, IMO, as the worlds press are not camped along the Donets or around Gorlovka and Donetsk to report on anything, and certainly not any attacks made by Kiev. Entire ukrops artillery brigade could lay down bombardment and Western media will not report it.

There are full reports in other places, so only briefly here. Last night were bombardments from Gorlovka down to Sakhanka. The bombardment of districts of Gorlovka and Makeevka lasted for two hours, with four civilians wounded, two very seriously, and a number of houses destroyed. Into Gorlovka and Makeevka were fired a total of 79 122mm artillery shells and 237 mortar rounds of 82 and 120mm. Before this there had been fighting at Zaitsevo with ukrops using tanks and BMP to fire at VSN positions and into the village.

No news of the rabid cat at Sumy, presumed headed for Kiev......

Two articles about "Azov", the first, Russian, mostly quotes the second, Ukranian, but also has fresh info.
http://vz.ru/news/2016/9/14/832339.html
http://strana.ua/articles/analysis/31366-azov.html

A lot of what is in them is already known so no need to go over old ground, but what is relvant to today is that "Azov" is a different organisation to what is was two years ago, better organised, bigger, and much bigger ambitions. We know there is funding from Kolomoisky, but here it is strongly suggested that "Azov" works closely with Avakov, and that while politically "Azov" do not attack Avakov for any crimminal activity, as they do other government figures, Avakov employs veterans of "Azov" in the police, even to the level of district police chiefs. The level of violence at the construction site was high, and much tougher police action was needed to stamp on them, but very little force was used and very few arrests were made, and of those arrested all but four were released without charges against them.

Two main elements to "Azov" are known, the regiment and the "Civilian Corps" comprised of veterans, and it is those who are responsible for the disturbances. A third echelon to "Azov", a political force, is in the process of being formed and not much is known about it, tho it seems that it is intended to be a nationwide organisation with a core of 500 members in each oblast. The leader of "Azov" Andriy Biletsky, publicly states that this is simply a political party the same as any others and he has no intention of armed coup. However, reading between what he says and looking clearly at what "Azov" has become and the way it is evolving, it is being seen as a potential main force in a third Maidan, and could, despite Biletsky's denials, launch an armed coup against Poroshenko, and presumably with the support of Avakov and the police forces at his disposal.

There is much more, but that is the essentials of the articles. That it is Ukranians themselves saying this about "Azov" shows a potential that they prepare the public for a "Night of the long knives" against "Azov" at some stage, or that, and it is what I think, society is now so damaged in Ukraine that the always existing divisions within the junta cannot be hidden and we see a stage of serious manouvering to seize power.

It is true that some of what is said about "Azov" now is very similar to what was said about "Pravy Sektor" and "Svoboda", who are both now spent forces, but they did not have the support, if that element is true, of Avakov.  Also, while of course much is made of the nazi symbols used by "Azov" and that they are neo nazis, I would go further and say that they may see themselves as a new SS, and I do not simply mean as a new Waffen SS, but as what the SS really was in it's totality, and what it was becoming, the state itself, above NSDAP, above even Hitler.

Verkhovna Rada deputy from "Opposition Blok", Yuri Miroshnychenko, has said that Kiev has no option to Minsk other than war. He says it is irresponsible to have no option to Minsk other than war, and that failure to implement Minsk will cause loss of support from the West and Kiev will be isolated. He is of course right, but it shows the "catch 22" that Kiev has put itself in, as they cannot implement Minsk as it will be an admission that they have lost Donbass, and to continue to break Minsk will sooner or later lead to a war they cannot win and the loss of at least the part of Donbass they occupy, and probably much more, if not everything. That Miroshnychenko, previously a supporter of Poroshenko, says this and in so doing admits that Kiev breaks Minsk, shows a further unravelling of the situation for Kiev.http://izvestia.kiev.ua/item/show/95043

Also within the last 30 minutes ukrops began firing mortars onto Zaitsevo and Golmovskiy.

The orcs are doing everything they can to goad Novorossiya to attack them, it's their only hope. For the rest of your diagnosis, spot on. VVP tied them and their supports in knots in fall of '14 and early '15, they were so desperate to get something signed to reign in NAF they would sign anything. And they did, and it's coming back to bite them in the ass, both the orcs and Golland/Merkel.

War is coming.