The Situation in the Ukraine. #25

Pushilin has spoken about the possible resumption of war, that the situation is growing worse every day and that in the last five to six days has increased to maximum level, [below actual full scale war], and if Ukraine does not comply with first three paragraphs of Minsk, then there will be fighting.

1. Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment as of 00:00 midnight EET on 15 February 2015.

2. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka-U tactical missile systems:
for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.
This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.

3. Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.

JohninMK wrote:Do you think he is saying this on his own or has he been 'authorised' to say it?

I doubt Pushilin says anything important without authorization, tho in the first instance that authorization is from Zakharchenko, and then.....
A little later Kiev said almost the same as Pushilin, but from their perspective. Frontline residents are not impressed by these comments as for them war is happening every day.

JohninMK wrote:MOSCOW (Sputnik) — An international investigation report into the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in eastern Ukraine is set to be published until the end of this year, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said Thursday.

"We are waiting for the criminal investigation report [on the flight MH17] that is expected to be tabled towards the end of this year," Najib said during a press conference in Kiev after a meeting with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.

He added that after the criminal report is published the five countries comprising the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) — Australia, Belgium, Netherlands, Malaysia and Ukraine — would call a meeting to determine a plan of action to bring perpetrators to justice.

I smell some BS being cooked in here i hope Novorosiya will be prepared by then to defend itself against hostilities from Pukraine (with the blessing from USAtan) under the pretext of whatever BS they will invent to justify an attack..,

Zakharchenko continues the theme by Pushilin yesterday. What he says is not new except the final part. He is talking about Kiev ready to attack and that DNR does  not want an escalation, and that if Kiev attacks then they should not then complain [when defeated] and call for "Minsk 3" as there will be no "Minsk 3". The final part that I think he has not said before, is that an attack by Kiev may be the only chance for the regime to remain in power, and this is what some of us have been saying for a long time.

As support for Kiev falters, then they will become ever more desperate and have no choice but to roll the dice of war and hope for at least some small localized success, such as in the south, and hope to be able to put pressure on DNR to accept a "Minsk 3" even if Zakharchenko says there will not. In the face of war, all words spoken before, all promises made, everything, it all becomes nothing.

http://dnr-news.com/dnr/34545-zaharchenko-vsu-gotovy-k-nastupleniyu-no-esli-napadut-minska-3-ne-budet.html

Also, Vitaly Zakharchenko, ex head of Ukraine MVD under Yanukovich, is saying the same, that the situation in Ukraine is desperate and that war started by them is inevitable. http://www.politnavigator.net/vojjna-neizbezhna-poroshenko-prigotovil-donbassu-novuyu-myasorubku.html

2 Ukrainian civilian killers wounded yesterday in Donbas

Who cares about Olympics? Georgia invaded South Ossetia in 2008 Olympics and Russia beat Georgia out. If Ukraine invade New Russia in 2016 Olympics then Russia will beat Ukraine out

JohninMK wrote:
Do you pick up anything as to whether Zakharchenko/Pushilin believe that they can withstand the assault and then reverse it on their own or are they reliant on support from the East?

As you have said, the really vulnerable area is in the south where there is little depth to absorb a big strike. Both sides know this but I suppose that the only people who know what Russia has in position to respond if it wants to that is Russia and US Int as I doubt either has passed much onto the locals. If true that means there are a lot of assumptions in the plans. Is there much open intel on what is there?

If Kiev plans to hide behind the Olympics they only have until the 21st, 16 days. Poro is in the Far East, presumably on his way to Rio as no way will he want to miss that opportunity to hobnob with his (in his mind only) peer group, Obama, Merkel etc! Will he want to be there if war starts?

The support from the West does seem to be very patchy. The most seems to be NATO related with lots of low level training stuff, probably plenty of skilled tactical advisors, odds and ends of military supplies. But very importantly, continued delays to the really crucial stuff, IMF money, the stuff that, if nothing else, they can loot and escape with.

There must be good strategic reasons why the money has stopped as the IMF is normally quite happy to lend to dictators and other basket cases in the knowledge that as it is a state debt they will get it back one day even if the cash 'disappeared'. To make it worse, no-one from the West is rushing in to buy State owned assets. The combination, and they must be linked given Western banking relationships, means that someone either does not believe any loan will ever be repaid or that one day the assets will be reclaimed or be much cheaper. Which leads to a painful lack of cash in the bank but at least with the weak Ruble what they have goes further on their crucial energy purchases.

All this leads to a simple choice, peace or war or run for the hills. Sadly history tells us it will be war and the longer they leave it the worse it gets for them.

I think that if ukrops try the various "route one" scenarios, between Donetsk and Gorlovka on an axis towards Shatersk, but not necessarily going that far, or under Donetsk from Elenovka and up to Makeevka, and in the south directly east either north or south of Telmanovo, then they will be held. The area to the NW of Shaktersk could be a huge killing field for ukrops, and they likely know this. I think in open warfare VSN can hold, tho there will be problems in some areas, it is inevitable in war if enough force is applied, even badly, that some form of success can be had, but not for long, and they may only need enough penetration to cause panic among civilians and all the problems that causes for defending, or withdrawing army. The issue, as I see it, is that Minsk allowed them to sit with one foot almost in Gorlovka and Donetsk. This is bad, very very bad. Here any "help" to an extent is negated as there is limit to how many forces can fit in one street fighting house to house, that is more a matter of fighting ability and being able to replace casualties, not brigades of Buryats or Kantemirovskaya division making dramatic advance in tanks. A cynical and hugely costly to civilian lives major bombardment of northern Donetsk with mass attack could breakthru and have ukrops tanks within ten minute drive of central Donetsk. There will be a plan against this of course, but while civilians live and work as normally as they can in what should be, in normal war, heavily defended urban zone, means that what should be done, the evacutaion of civilians and fortifying their homes and preparing to mine roads in the city, cannot be done, and with ukrops already on doorstep, no time when offensive comes. This is serious Achilles heel. Any breakthru, even if not major, into Donetsk could have disasterous consequences as civilians will be running, and it will be a morale problem if the ukrops rag is seen flying over Kievsky admin building for instance. This potential ability to make a very strong drive into heart of Donetsk is more threat than any open warfare, and if they make some progress into the center, and they could, then if they cannot be quickly thrown out, it will mean end of DNR as Donetsk cannot operate as capital if it is part occupied and major residential districts in south of city come within range of anything ukrops have, and the industrial areas are taken. If Kievsky and Kuibishevsky are taken, and they are vulnerable, or ukrops penetrate very far, they will not be viable as industrial areas. Kievsky houses Tochmash and that cannot be lost. Many mines are right on front line and could also be lost, and here Petrovsky is vulnerable. I'm sure ukrops cannot attack in force in all the areas that seem to be targets, for instance I think they cannot attack Telmanovo, Elenovka, Gorlovka, Dokuchaevsk with sufficient force at the same time, only in two with other attacks being diversions. I'm not sure thay can attempt drive into Donetsk and launch more than one other major attack anywhere on the entire front. We can all guess, but never know until it happens. I still think that a major attack will be launched in the south, but that maybe no offensives inbetween the cities, but straight into Donetsk, and enough diversions to make re-enforcement a problem. As for Lugansk, that is very cloudy and anything could happen in any direction, or nothing except diversions to keep LNR busy, and it will only be when ukrops are defeated at Donetsk that LNR will advance over the Donets. A caveat in that the possibility of ukrops attempting to encircle Donetsk and not try direct assault into city cannot be excluded. That would be the preffered attack they make as it will fail, and the pen ready to draw circles on the map of the pots they end up in is already poised.

24th August will of course feature more and more, and it did seem very certain they were going to attack either on evening of 24th or early morning of 25th last year, but otherwise I don't see Olympics as a factor and that 2008 and 2014 were simply co-incidence and that events were going to happen anyway. I still maintain that the offensive could happen at any day and they have been ready for months.

War? yes, without question, and in future years it will be seen as naive to think now that there is any solution other than war, unless there is a coup/revolution, but most normal UA officers have long defected and all senior commanders from the top down to brigade level are now seriously compromised as war crimminals and cannot afford to loose this war as they will be severely dealt with if they do not get out of Ukraine very quickly, if they survive the firestorm on the battlefield.....

The headwounds suffered by Plotnitksy in the attempted assasination this morning are said to be not life threatening. http://news-front.info/2016/08/06/ranenie-glavy-lnr-plotnickogo-ne-ugrozhaet-ego-zhizni-istochnik/



Before this attempt on Plotnitsky, Zakharchenko said about last nights bombardments of Donetsk "Coffins are ready for Ukrainians"

In such cases war usually follows immediately or not long afterwards, however, this situation is not normal and it may simply have been an attempt at disrupting Donbass, not overture for offensive. Ukrops are shouting that he is dead of course. Likely this will not have any effect on the situation, but anything could happen, so a dangerous time. The bomb was hidden inside a lampost by the road near his house and if his jeep was not armored would probably have died. Who is in charge of Lugansk at this time is not clear, and one of his advisors was assasinated a little while ago. Perhaps time now to merge DNR and LNR into Novorossiya as the rumors have said may happen, doubt it.

Yesterday Turchynov was saying about the parameters for full war mobilisation. In this he included Russian forces not even needing to invade, but simply be on the border. He also said, and this is probably preparing public for war, that Donetsk is occupied and that Russia knows that Kiev will not fire into Donetsk, so they fire artillery from residential areas onto ukrops forces. Due to what happens already in Donetsk and that Voronezh part of Western Military District went to full war preparedness two days ago, exercise of course, the reqirements for war, from perspective of Turchynov, are already met, so.....

I'm pulling together a number of small things from the last two days that were not that newsworthy at the time, but now perhaps are, like any garbage from Turchynov I would not normally repeat here, and yesterday Alexander Khodakovsky was saying that both sides are ready for war, and he means ready to fight right now, and that the smallest provocation can start it, even unintentionally as it is so tense. He also said about VSN under strictest orders not to return fire in order to avoid giving casus beli to Kiev.

Perhaps I was wrong about events happening at Olympics simply being co-incidence...

No substantial official information, and it seems only Oleg Tsarev has any info on Plotnitsky. He says that while what was confirmed from hospital that Plotnitsky's injuries are not life threatening, he was saved only because one of his bodyguards pulled him from the burning vehicle, and that he also has internal injuries, liver, spleen and kidneys, so likely Plotnitsky will be out of the picture for some time. Was hoping for some statement from perhaps Kiselyov who should take over, but so far silence.

Edit: Technically I think Vladimir Degtyarenko should take over as he is Chairman of the National Council, but its silence on all official sources. IMO they quickly need to confirm 100% the condition of Plotnitsky.

Another aspect to consider is that ukrops are vulnerable in open warfare as they have no substantial AF, but if they are fighting inside Donetsk and maybe Gorlovka and the front line is fluid, it will be difficult to hit them from the air without the possibility of large numbers of civilian casualties or hitting VSN in error.

Statement from Sergei Kozlov, prime minister of LNR, that Plotnitsky is alive and in stable condition. Rest of the statement is simply that the attack happened, and he says by terrorists, and that it is being investigated, and contains no other info not already known.

Thank you Khepesh, and JohninMK for your posts.

...just looking at twitter yesterday, I thought I could see that as recently as July, August Eastern rebels are still getting ready for war.

After yesterday, just my opinion, not based on your excellent reporting, there will be war, and the Eastern rebels will be as prepared as they can be.

I was going to write yesterday about a serious ukrops "friendly fire" incident at Avdeevka, but there was no proof. However, "John Connor" has posted today about another incident last night at Avdeevka. In his post he says that soldiers of ukrops 1st battalion of 54th Brigade and soldiers of the [notorious for incompetance] 16th battalion of 58th Brigade have made an attack using weapons banned at the front by Minsk. Due to their incompetance, four soldiers of 58th and one soldier of 54th were wounded by their own side. He also says about a soldier from 16th battalion dying of heart attack due to alchohol. Anyway, the report from yesterday was about something like 12 soldiers killed and twenty wounded from 16th battalion when they were fired on by ukrops 26th Artillery Brigade. 26th brigade are equiped with Msta-S. I think in Connor's report he is meaning about mortar fire from 16th battalion on to their own guys. Few months back when it was hot at Yasinovataya, it was 16th battalion that fired on 11th battalion soldiers and killed about six. http://john-connor85.livejournal.com/158412.html

I was going to edit my post to say about that. It is now at least twice, and likely far more times, that 16th battalion of 58th brigade have fired on various battalions of 54th brigade, usually the 11th, so I imagine there is probably some bad blood by now, good. And on the "friendly fire" incidents it is a lot to do with the situation as well as incompetance. With the front lines being so close, 50m in some cases, it is not surprising that errors in targetting are made, particulary in the grey zone in southern Avdeevka were the front can move forwards and backwards, and it needs professionalism and care to communicate so everybody knows were their own forces are. Also that there are problems with "friendly fire" between two brigades. Within a battalion or brigade, unless on left or right wing, you will have formations you know either side of you, and so less chance of errors. When it comes to being on the flank of brigade, then it is likely that the join will be betwen forces who either do not know each other, or not very well. These junctions between formations are always a problem, even up to corps and army level. This needs good communication and professionalism from commanders on the flanks down to level of platoon. After more than a year at Avdeevka it seems that flank units of 58th and 54th brigade have not bothered to get to know each other, except by bullets....