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It's not genocide, it's ethnic cleansing.Ghoster wrote:The attacks against Donetsk, Gorlovka and other cities can only be classed as a genocide. Doing nothing to stop or condemn it is akin to supporting it.
Genocide is what the Germans did to the Jews or the Turks did to the Armenians. Not eviction - but industrialized, organized extermination of ethnic groups in their entirety. So let's not cheapen those events by equating absolutely everything to them.
I haven't seen any condemnation from Russia or any threats of sanctions against junta for killing innocent civilians every day.
Russia is not talking about sanctions - it's doing them. Everything Ukrainian is being thrown out of our economy, our defence industries in particular but not only. Counter-sanctions on Ukrainian agricultural produce are in place. Gas discounts have been annulled. Even migration control for workers from the Ukraine (except for refugees from the Donbass) has been tightened as of 1-2 weeks ago.
I'm sure more tightening of the screws is under way. But really, these aren't sanctions - as much as annulment of preferences, and benefits - that have been given for the past 23 years for I don't know what reason.
Now, everything is fair, and the Ukraine has to play by the same rules as everyone else. And this is sanction enough - as having to play by the same rules as everyone else; there is absolutely nothing that the Ukraine's rusty, old, chronically underinvested in industries and products can offer Russia, or anyone else.
No-one can accuse Russia of being unfair to the Ukraine. Which is something that Russia can point to in its propaganda efforts.
As for condemnation - Russia expresses it's disapproval of what the Ukraine is doing all the time, Lavrov is always talking about Ukrainian violations of the Minsk deal, the media here runs footage of the latest destruction wrought by Ukrainian artillery every day, etc...
Here's what Russia's patience will do. In Gorlovka alone there are 6 civilians wounded and 2 killed every day. And this will only increase. That means that by the end of the year there will be 300 more civilian victims and about a thousand wounded.
And half the Russians in Chechnya were evicted before Russia acted against the seperatist government there, and the rest were killed or fled when Russia itself reduced Grozny to ruins which was a city that was mostly populated by Russian-speakers anyway.
So clearly Russia is willing to lose a few battles to win the war, make a few sacrifices if it strengthens its position in the longer term.
Harsh truth for you but there it is. I don't like it any more than you do but Russia can't just invade an entire country and crush its army on humanitarian reasons - even NATO waited some 8 years before directly intervening in the former Yugoslavia.
Russia doesn't have to give a damn about what the US and its most zealous allies think, but there are many other countries; such as China, India, even some US allies, etc.. that avoided judging Russia or taking sides against it; while some others only agreed with US-led sanctions reluctantly. But if Russia starts ignoring international law even more blatantly than the West, even they might have to come out and condemn it.
What Russia however can do; is what it did in Chechnya, Georgia, Moldova, etc... which is to help out the rebels with volunteers and arms and other forms of support. In Georgia and Moldova it worked at least, and froze those conflicts. In Chechnya it didn't. In the Ukraine it has worked half-way; however terrible the situation is - it's not full-scale war as it was last summer.
In the end though, it's a waiting game. Russia didn't win the battle in Chechnya, but it did win the war.
By the time Russia entered Chechnya for the 2nd time; half the factions rushed to support it - the same ones who battled against it before - as by that time it saw Russia as the better alternative to the absolute chaos and terrorism that had engulfed their country.
The very same thing can happen in the Ukraine. Yarosh is already making overtures to Zakharchenko. Haushofer here keeps bringing up the subject of ethnic homogenity - I am saying that that sort of thing doesn't matter; or at the very least, it stops mattering once there is no more food to put on the table and everyone's familiy is starving.
Ukraine won't collapse because of some energy crisis. It was 10 times worse last winter, and everyone was sure the government would collapse just after a week or two. It won't. As long as it has access to IMF and other western aid, not to mention transit fees and cheap gas from Russia, it won't collapse.
It wasn't 10 times worse last winter, it will be 10 times worse this winter, as this winter the Ukraine just doesn't have the money for gas and there is no more discount.
Most serious analysists didn't expect the Ukrainian government to collapse last winter; it was far too early and the economy's decline was still manageable and hadn't started cascading yet.
I don't think the Ukrainian government will collapse this winter either, but it will be further damaged, the economy will keep getting worse and dissent will keep building.
In case you hadn't noticed, the IMF is giving the Ukraine the bare minimum just to manage its own repayments to its debtors (most from the same IMF), while the other Western aid has kept it on a lifeline that would ensure minimal gas supplies. However, now however, default looks more and more likely as the IMF might not want to dish out the $3 billion needed to pay Russia's loan, and the Ukraine's private debtors are playing hardball. I also find it hard to believe that the IMF or anyone else will want to pay for the gas supplies at full market price that the Ukraine will need for the winter.
There won't be any NAF offensive. Russia doesn't want more economic sanctions and problems for its economy, so it won't allow it to happen either.
Threats to Russia's own economy and economic sanctions is a consideration; it's just the most minor one for Russia out of all the others. Far more important is to try and drive a wedge between America and Europe by showing that it's doing the most possible to abide by the Minsk agreements, to show the Ukrainian population that it's not the aggressor that the Ukrainian government portrays it as, to not give the Ukrainian government a chance to excuse its economic failures as due to some new Russian offensive and thus imperil the rising dissent and opposition inside the Ukraine, and so on.
All these things are far more important for Russia to get right, than the fear of having the wrath of some vague new sanctions slapped on it that will likely come with just as much of a fat silver lining as the previous sanctions did for the Russian economy (acceleration of BRICS/SCO integration, boost to Russian agriculture, increased competitiveness of Russian exports due to rouble decline, etc...)
Of course, the fact that Russia can fulfill all its objectives in the Ukraine w/o having to take any more risks that would bring further economic sanctions to it is also good. Like I said, all Russia has to do is act like a saint, and wait. Time will do its work for it.
Keeping these things in mind, there probably is a higher chance of Novorossiya being destroyed in these 18 months rather than Ukraine. Its civilians are getting massacred every day by artillery after all. That would seem like a much more important problem, and inaction would more likely lead to a collapse.
Novorussia will survive, many new nations are born and tempered in fire, and that ultimately makes them more unified and stronger.
The people of the Donbass, with each new atrocity and death, hate Kiev more and more and want independence more and more.
The people of the rest of the Ukraine don't have this motivation, they just grow more and more tired of the propaganda and the sacrifices they are being asked to make, and poorer and poorer.
