The Situation in the Ukraine. #18

Werewolf wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:

zg18 wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:Don't worry. Russia will give Ukraine all the coal, oil and gas it needs, as a gesture of good will of course.

True , but not in quantities necessary to make lasting reserves. Which is good , because any escalation of conflict will not last long like before.

Frankly I don't understand this. What does Russia gain from preventing a more devastating economic collapse of Ukraine?

My guess is that Ukraine has leverage over Russia because Russian gas transit goes through Ukraine so Russia is forced to support Ukraine because otherwise Ukraine would shut the gas flow to Europe. Russia gains billions of dollars from these gas sales to Europe annually.

And you told Vann7 he does not understand politics...


This isn't some sprint but a marathon, russia can't win by just doing all devastating things it could do any second if it did not care about future. They care about future and reintegrating the artificial created Ukraine, since it has shown to have absolutley Zero capability to live and have any rights to exist whatsoever. Russia does not need that russians stand divided due the politics of the west and everything russia does is used to fuel the stupid people to let them believe Russia is enemy of russians which call themselfs Ukrops. As soon russia gives no fucks about its future enough will be lost to comprimize further progress, unity and with that stability of russia domestic and at its boarders. It could shit on economics and just go within 2 weeks to kiev and liberate russian soil from USrael and their little nazi zombies shouting for bandera. Would be also an opportunity to capture every single Banderasite and deliver them to the polish radicals and see how that ends.

Yes, the west produces lies to blame russia for things that never happened or turn 180° the truth like "Russia is coming closer to NATO boarders", what matters is that US is invitebly falling and with it its construct and curtain of lies, their controlled and influenced MSM and their lies will fate in future, but what remains is what was documented and people will call upon that. Russia not going ballistic on little USrael's Nazi lapdog proxy terror state which is russian in nature will shut doors up for further coorperation and changing things like they are now back to how it was and should be.

I disagree.

Russia's relations to Ukraine and Ukrainians will be ruined anyway as long as the current junta is in charge in Kiev. For Russia the best outcome would a fast collapse of Ukraine as a viable state. By delaying this Russia only enables the junta to continue it's war against Donbass and spread more anti-Russian propaganda to young Ukrainian children who will grow to hate Russia. The longer this continues the harder it will be for Russia to "win Ukraine back" (if it is even possible anymore, I'm not sure).

Vann7 wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

Ruthenius wrote:When you think that they all just cannot degrade any lower

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4514313.ece

This is so stupid it's beyond stupid. It's beyond low.

They must think that people have the brains the size of peas. Up to now, humans must have given them reason to think so. Tell humans any lie, any deception, & they believe that. Tell them the facts/truth, and they don't.

& some persons are just so evil.

That report show the American and British Governments are already in plans to use dirty bombs , and later blame it on the Rebels.. No this does not surprise me ,not even remotely. For me the real surprise is how we have not seen yet a nuclear reactor "Accident" in Ukraine and later blamed on Russians or the Rebels. I have been saying since 2014 when Americans began to talk about providing "non lethal" weapons to Ukraine..  the big possibility that Ukraine could be supplied with nukes.. or chemical weapons or any weapon of mass destruction if.. Europe does not stand at closed doors ,while in discussion of Ukraine ,and demand Americans to stop their illegal war in Ukraine. against Russia.

So things like biological weapons ,chemical weapons ,nuclear reactors "accidents" , any thing that can be used to force the eastern ukrainians to flee their territories and stop fighting could be used..  The MH17 Malaysian plane incident is just the tip of the iceberg how far the can go..
The same factions behind the Ukraine conflict ,who financed it and overthrow Yakunovych are
the same factions who created the "Terrorist" attack in 2001 at world trade center..and later blamed it on Jihadist in afgan caves.  So whenever anyone wants to know how far they can go.
the Wallstreet mafia ,who influence US foreign policy ,no lo further than 9/11 WTC 2001.

Hopefully MR Putin will not be caught with pants down , by any chemical or radiation attack on Donetsk and Lugansk and be ready with plan B.. how to develop enough camps for 3 millions citizens from Donetsk and Lugansk if forced to flee. Also be prepared in the diplomatic level to blame ukraine and americans for it..with an investigation. The only way the war can be stopped is with Europe pressure on Americans.. to stop the war.. Something as simple as Europe threatening Americans ,with lifting all the sanctions in Russia and recognizing Crimea as Russia and Russia rights to defend civilians in Donetsk and Lugansk will be enough to keep their dirty fingers away of any major crime.  The Biggest Nightmare and Terror of US Government and political elite will be that Europe leave NATO and makes alliance with Russia. SO Europe do have ways to pressure Americans to stop their war in Ukraine.

There are other ways too to sabotage DOnetsk and lugansk ,to make it more costly for Russia to help them..and that is why kiev forces shell Donetsk electricity plants and water plants. and bomb the mines and have an economic embargo on them.   other things they could also try is  sabotage to DOnetsk and LUgansks agriculture. using Poison and biological or chemical agents.

It (Kiev and Donbass) reminds me of...a person, or persons who would rather kill someone, another person, than let them go. It's sick.

Instead of growing close with the catholic hungarians and slovaks who have historically done great atrocities against them ,there should be an effort to make the rusyn national consciosness to identify itsself with the orthodox east slavic family, them being the westernmost members of the russian people.

08.01.15 Donetsk, shelling the village APU North and co-thou October
VIDEO: Shelling of Oktyabrsky district, Donetsk. August 1 2015. Via @xuilolala

par far wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:IMF loans Maidan another 1.7 billion dollars to pay for war.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/gulf-news-imf-approves-17b-loan-instalment-for-ukraine-despite-debt-concerns-394844.html

The IMF jerks are just throwing away their money away, the money go in the bank accounts of the thugs in Kiev. Also winter is just around the corner, Ukraine will need more for gas, food and shelter.

True. IMF is the authority. IMF sends billions or even trillions at the tap of a keyboard.

Ukraine's Rivne Region Might Start Uprising Against Kiev

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150801/1025309952.html


First time I hear about this place...

PapaDragon wrote:
Ukraine's Rivne Region Might Start Uprising Against Kiev

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150801/1025309952.html


First time I hear about this place...

Given the lack of support for the Svoboda party in this region compared to regions like Lviv, this story has some
credibility. But I seriously doubt anything will materialize.

Ukraine needs to have its economy collapse enough to produce universal pain outside of the Donbas. Then
there will be some phase change.

flamming_python wrote:
Bad example - Somalia did not maintain its territorial integrity - it ultimately collapsed into 2 countries; present-day Somalia and Somaliland, which is a lawless warzone ruled by warlords and one that split from Somalia proper.

The Ukraine is not ethnically homogenous and the Crimea and the Donbass proves it. Ethnic Russians feared prosecution and Ukrainian nationalism so they split. The same process can repeat in Kharkov and Odessa; those regions are on the verge and dissent is only being suppressed with violence and repression.
Furthermore, the Transcarpathian region; with its heterogenous population of Hungarians, Rusyns and so on - and no the official demographic statistics don't tell the whole story.

But I wasn't really talking about the Ukraine disintegrating, I was talking about its government collapsing and being overthrown by its own people - which I believe is what Russia is waiting for; not neccesserily for the Ukraine to fracture into lots of small countries.

Ukraine is anything but homogenous ..is a multi ethnic Group of Russians ,Ukrainians ,Hungarians ,Then you have Jews Elite and Regular Orthodox Jewjs ,and muslins.  A quick look
at elections results were Yakunovych won ,legally.. will reveal that more than 50% of Ukrainians
voted for good relations with Russia and Europe. .and neutral position. So right away the posibility that about half the nation will switch to Russia in case their flag fails and no longer have not even food to eat and their family start to starve to death... you can be sure that Ukrainians will not remain idle doing nothing when the only choice they have is to die or to fight back. They will see Russia as their only hope ,because Neither Americans or Europeans solve their problems.  So when Ukraine economy collapse and its currency have zero and no longer any Job , the loyalty to Kiev and the patriotism will go to hell.    And they all will united DOnetsk and Lugansk and create a new Russia in Ukraine..  MY prediction is from Odessa to Kharkiv all the zones that borders The black sea and Russia borders will split from Kiev.. Kiev will also lose the zones near HUngary... already Hungarian flags being used in the official buildings in that region and the Government of Hungary saying will not stay idle doing nothing if hungarians start to be killed there.  So it will be IMPOssible for kiev and Americans to hold power.. if they continue with the war. Ukraine will disband in many parts and even Belarus will take territory.


About the somalia comparisons with Ukraine are really bad because Somalia do not have any history.. it have always been a no man lands nation that nobody cares and have no major power
interested in them other than Americans...  So essentially Somalia "do not split" simply because there is no one for them to unite.. no one wants them..  

The Ukraine scenario is totally different. Russia is a major power and do cares about Ukraine..
Ukraine is part of Russia history and the natural choice for ALL UKRAINIANS when Europe and Americans does not solve their problems is to return to their mother land Russia.  So at very least 50% of Ukraine will "Return to RUssia"  , how this return will happen is what is not really clear yet.. It could be a ABkhazia way.. where remains a colony of Russia in real practice.. but
in official terms is an independent nation..  or it could be the crimean way..with referendum to join Russia.. this one is the more expensive for Russian budget... so it will all depend of a word
called   PUBLIC SUPPORT . How strong is the public support in those zones , after the Ukraine project failed.. to "return to Russia".  In Crimea.. 96% of the people supported Russia ,
so they got exacly what they wanted. a real return to Russia..   in the case of Kharkiv ,Odessa ,
Mariupol all those zones that are coast to the Black sea and Russia..  it remains to be seen
how strong Russia support will be there after Refendum.

This is why the Americans needs desperately to destroy Russia economy more than ever..
Because they cannot allow Russia to influence Ukrainians with a solid economy.  with solid salaries jobs.. and with a solid and stable nation.. So the US government needs to weaken
Russia economy as much as their political capabilities and undercover attacks can. TO make
Ukrainians not consider "joining the Russia world" as an option.   This only could work if
Russia economy sinks..

So the way i see it.. the competition between Americans and Russia is on Russia economy.
Americans do every desperate move to isolate Russia economy.. and Russia do every desperate
move to not allow americans isolate them..and lift its economy.. why the Turkey-Ruso pipeline deal..and the Saudi arabia "closer cooperation". Russia is seeking to get away of the economy recession because they know they will need a stable economy ..if they want to really help stop
the Ukraine conflict . and become an alternative to Ukrainians ,other than Europe and US.

Here is Ukraine 2012 results.. this map could be Re-used indeed to show which Strong division existed in Ukraine in that time.. the Pro NATO vs PRO RUssia camp..

on a side note.. if this same elections were made today..it will be nearly All Blue
the image ,since the Euromaidans factions all feel dissapointed with Europe and americans for not accepting them.. even the Right Sector are no longer using EU flags..and say bad things about them..

The blue zones are Russia friendly zones.. the Red zones , some unfriendly and other simply
voted for Tymoshenko because of promises of castles in the air if Ukraine was part of NATO and Europe.  So the people saying Ukraine will not lose territory if totally collapse its economy....
and no longer any jobs ..LOLOLOLOL  Good luck..  it will be similar to the soviet union collapse.
Notice how Ukraine and Belarusia ,they are Russians slavic.. and still voted for their independence..  The Moral of the Story is that in moments of crisis.. the economic security will
always win over any flag ,or patriotism or even political prefferences.  Money for feeding your family is everything.. and even the NeoNazis will seek Russia help and will show a happy face to Russia if they find themselves jobless and without future . and will be speaking about "Russian
Brothers.". If thats the only way they see out of their personal economic problems.

But i dont think Russia will take the risk to Anex ukraine right away and have to finance their pensions without a period of test for Ukrainias of how they live together unders a new nation.
and without the Russian economy being stable. and most likely Ukraine will divide ,similar to Georgia.but losing most of its territory this time. That lost forever South Ossetia ,and ABkhazia. Belarus will also take territory from Ukraine.. and so Poland and Romania. So Ukraine could lose up to 75% of its territory across all its neighbors. and Russia will take the biggest Piece..

I really think that after Ukraine collapse .it is better to sink the entire project forever...
and influence the separated zones into creating a new flag..with new identity .. Ukraine needs
to die ,so its people can live and move to the future.

ONly when Ukrainians give up their Stupid Blind patriotism and their idea that Europe or americans will give them economic prosperity they need.. only then ,they will be ready to
move forward into a better future.  Possibly a New Russia in Ukraine ,with a new economic
model ,that is a democratic communism-socialism with open business , if it works ,it could serve as a model for Russia Federation to implement in their future.

PapaDragon wrote:
Ukraine's Rivne Region Might Start Uprising Against Kiev

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150801/1025309952.html


First time I hear about this place...

Also known as Rovno.

You might remember it as the home of Sashko 'Belyj'; you know, the Banderite who 'skip skipped' around a little too much..

Posted again this map..bigger size.. is really important.. Shows the 2012 elections Results
where Yakunovych promoting good relations with Russia won..and NO NATO integration.




Pay close attention to the eastern blue zones of Ukraine.. How can Russia influece those zones
in case Ukraine collapse the soviet style . will not be difficult for Russia to get all the zones near their borders and all the zones near the black sea. Effectively making the rest of the remaining Ukraine (the red zones) into a land locked nation..doomed to fail even more. Become the new Moldova. the poorest country in Europe.

Today if real democratic elections were held again. in kiev.with pro Russian parties allowed to participate.and their security guarantee. you will see a HUGE turnover in favor of Russia.. The euromaidans and even kiev parliament is dissappointed with Europe not helping them economically or giving them their Free VIsa..they wanted.. and the Americans the only thing they have done is to continue giving them weapons to continue the war against their own people. It was the Donetsk ministers sarkanshenko who told he received calls from Kiev parliament asking them to help them overthrow Poroshenko and turn Ukraine again into the Russian side..

Pardon my words, but those OSCE morons need to be lined up and shot in both legs.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/ukraine-today-russian-backed-fighters-provoke-return-fire-from-ukrainian-troops-394852.html

"Sorry Kiev, you're on your own"
http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150731/1025279587.html

And in other news, the leader of People's Rada of Bessarabia; I think this new formation mentioned a few pages back; has been kidnapped by the SBU on July 30th. She was allowed to make a phone call to her relatives from local SBU headquarters to explain where she was. After that, nothing has been heard from her, and her phone doesn't answer.
http://antifashist.com/item/v-odesse-pohitili-lidera-narodnoj-rady-bessarabii.html

Flagship Victory wrote:Pardon my words, but those OSCE morons need to be lined up and shot in both legs.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/ukraine-today-russian-backed-fighters-provoke-return-fire-from-ukrainian-troops-394852.html

Honestly I liked your idea with the body bags better, even if it was too harsh.

flamming_python wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:Pardon my words, but those OSCE morons need to be lined up and shot in both legs.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/ukraine-today-russian-backed-fighters-provoke-return-fire-from-ukrainian-troops-394852.html

Honestly I liked your idea with the body bags better, even if it was too harsh.

Body bags?

KomissarBojanchev wrote:Instead of growing close with the catholic hungarians and slovaks who have historically done great atrocities against them ,there should be an effort to make the rusyn national consciosness to identify itsself with the orthodox east slavic family, them being the westernmost members of the russian people.

What Slovak atrocities?

Flagship Victory wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:Pardon my words, but those OSCE morons need to be lined up and shot in both legs.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/ukraine-today-russian-backed-fighters-provoke-return-fire-from-ukrainian-troops-394852.html

Honestly I liked your idea with the body bags better, even if it was too harsh.

Body bags?

Didn't you write it that way before you edited your post?

Nevermind, my mind must have just projected something that wasn't there.

Odin of Ossetia wrote:

KomissarBojanchev wrote:Instead of growing close with the catholic hungarians and slovaks who have historically done great atrocities against them ,there should be an effort to make the rusyn national consciosness to identify itsself with the orthodox east slavic family, them being the westernmost members of the russian people.

What Slovak atrocities?

Damned if I know what he's refering to either.

Rusyns should conscious themselves up and join Slovakia or Hungary; either would make a good home for them - Ukraine is sure to progress into an absolute wreck.

PapaDragon wrote:
Ukraine's Rivne Region Might Start Uprising Against Kiev

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150801/1025309952.html
First time I hear about this place...

Some locals including apparently miners had the nerve to complain that they had not been paid over the last few months, a demonstration was held, the thugs arrived followed by right sector, some locals got beat up and several shot with 'non lethal rounds', people ran, some got arrested, end of story.

auslander wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
Ukraine's Rivne Region Might Start Uprising Against Kiev

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150801/1025309952.html
First time I hear about this place...

Some locals including apparently miners had the nerve to complain that they had not been paid over the last few months, a demonstration was held, the thugs arrived followed by right sector, some locals got beat up and several shot with 'non lethal rounds', people ran, some got arrested, end of story.

Kiev has definitely developed an effective anti-separatist mechanism. No one uprising in one will be successful. Definitely not the first time this is happening. What I want to see is how well will Kiev be able to respond to multiple uprisings in multiple places.

Parachute drop on Donetsk!

Why don't rebels put some AD systems around Donetsk and Gorlovka to shot down these goddamn artillery shells?

Not much is needed - just some stationary AD systems linked to a decent radar and that's all. Rebels were even reproted to be in possession of a Pantsir.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:
Kiev has definitely developed an effective anti-separatist mechanism. No one uprising in one will be successful. Definitely not the first time this is happening. What I want to see is how well will Kiev be able to respond to multiple uprisings in multiple places.

Each city, each town, each village, each settlement has their own cadre of right sector and/or svoboda thugs. Since the populace is unarmed nothing is going to happen for the near future. Cadre are immediately on the spot of any gathering and/or complaints by the locals and have no inhibitions what so ever about applying violence instantly. For a parallel see Germany 1936.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Why don't rebels put some AD systems around Donetsk and Gorlovka to shot down these goddamn artillery shells?

Not much is needed - just some stationary AD systems linked to a decent radar and that's all. Rebels were even reported to be in possession of a Pantsir.

First there is a lack of trained personel, there are only few AD systems in the hands of separatists because there is almost no air threat to them.
Second things is to intercept such amount of artillery shells would be very hard even with best AD systems. It's not sporadic shelling like in Gaza, but proper artillery barrages. How many % of shells will be intercepted and how many of them will land?
And lets be honest, targets Ukras are usually hitting are not very high military value. Saving lives is a good thing, but it would be waste of resources. They move their artillery and start shelling other places and then what? You can't cover all country, as You see they are not targeting military concentrations where I would think it would be more important to have such systems.
I know shelling destroys infrastructure and takes civilian lives, but it doesn't effect separatist military forces, it only boosts their morale to get revenge.
Pretty much works against Ukraine in the long run.
No matter how Ukraine tries to starve Donbas it won't work. Because Russia committed itself after first white trucks crossed the border.

There was a picture of Pantsir and supposedly remains were found of it's booster, but so far I don't think it was given to rebels. It was probably used as AD umbrella for something important, maybe it was covering artillery radar or something of high importance. If it was in Ukraine then most likely it wen't back to Russia same day.

auslander wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:
Kiev has definitely developed an effective anti-separatist mechanism. No one uprising in one will be successful. Definitely not the first time this is happening. What I want to see is how well will Kiev be able to respond to multiple uprisings in multiple places.

Each city, each town, each village, each settlement has their own cadre of right sector and/or svoboda thugs. Since the populace is unarmed nothing is going to happen for the near future. Cadre are immediately on the spot of any gathering and/or complaints by the locals and have no inhibitions what so ever about applying violence instantly. For a parallel see Germany 1936.

I've heard that same titushki who were kicking early maidan buts were happily employed back by new "democratic" government. Since Right sector chain loosened a bit and dissident became more apparent. We can see people hitting the streets and showing their anger. Still You have to be very careful as SBU knows their job well. But it's already apparent that Ukraine is a house build of cards.