Bad example - Somalia did not maintain its territorial integrity - it ultimately collapsed into 2 countries; present-day Somalia and Somaliland, which is a lawless warzone ruled by warlords and one that split from Somalia proper.
The Ukraine is not ethnically homogenous and the Crimea and the Donbass proves it. Ethnic Russians feared prosecution and Ukrainian nationalism so they split. The same process can repeat in Kharkov and Odessa; those regions are on the verge and dissent is only being suppressed with violence and repression.
Furthermore, the Transcarpathian region; with its heterogenous population of Hungarians, Rusyns and so on - and no the official demographic statistics don't tell the whole story.
But I wasn't really talking about the Ukraine disintegrating, I was talking about its government collapsing and being overthrown by its own people - which I believe is what Russia is waiting for; not neccesserily for the Ukraine to fracture into lots of small countries.
Ukraine is anything but homogenous ..is a multi ethnic Group of Russians ,Ukrainians ,Hungarians ,Then you have Jews Elite and Regular Orthodox Jewjs ,and muslins. A quick look
at elections results were Yakunovych won ,legally.. will reveal that more than 50% of Ukrainians
voted for good relations with Russia and Europe. .and neutral position. So right away the posibility that about half the nation will switch to Russia in case their flag fails and no longer have not even food to eat and their family start to starve to death... you can be sure that Ukrainians will not remain idle doing nothing when the only choice they have is to die or to fight back. They will see Russia as their only hope ,because Neither Americans or Europeans solve their problems. So when Ukraine economy collapse and its currency have zero and no longer any Job , the loyalty to Kiev and the patriotism will go to hell. And they all will united DOnetsk and Lugansk and create a new Russia in Ukraine.. MY prediction is from Odessa to Kharkiv all the zones that borders The black sea and Russia borders will split from Kiev.. Kiev will also lose the zones near HUngary... already Hungarian flags being used in the official buildings in that region and the Government of Hungary saying will not stay idle doing nothing if hungarians start to be killed there. So it will be IMPOssible for kiev and Americans to hold power.. if they continue with the war. Ukraine will disband in many parts and even Belarus will take territory.
About the somalia comparisons with Ukraine are really bad because Somalia do not have any history.. it have always been a no man lands nation that nobody cares and have no major power
interested in them other than Americans... So essentially Somalia "do not split" simply because there is no one for them to unite.. no one wants them..
The Ukraine scenario is totally different. Russia is a major power and do cares about Ukraine..
Ukraine is part of Russia history and the natural choice for ALL UKRAINIANS when Europe and Americans does not solve their problems is to return to their mother land Russia. So at very least 50% of Ukraine will "Return to RUssia" , how this return will happen is what is not really clear yet.. It could be a ABkhazia way.. where remains a colony of Russia in real practice.. but
in official terms is an independent nation.. or it could be the crimean way..with referendum to join Russia.. this one is the more expensive for Russian budget... so it will all depend of a word
called PUBLIC SUPPORT
. How strong is the public support in those zones , after the Ukraine project failed.. to "return to Russia". In Crimea.. 96% of the people supported Russia ,
so they got exacly what they wanted. a real return to Russia.. in the case of Kharkiv ,Odessa ,
Mariupol all those zones that are coast to the Black sea and Russia.. it remains to be seen
how strong Russia support will be there after Refendum.
This is why the Americans needs desperately to destroy Russia economy more than ever..
Because they cannot allow Russia to influence Ukrainians with a solid economy. with solid salaries jobs.. and with a solid and stable nation.. So the US government needs to weaken
Russia economy as much as their political capabilities and undercover attacks can. TO make
Ukrainians not consider "joining the Russia world" as an option. This only could work if
Russia economy sinks..
So the way i see it.. the competition between Americans and Russia is on Russia economy.
Americans do every desperate move to isolate Russia economy.. and Russia do every desperate
move to not allow americans isolate them..and lift its economy.. why the Turkey-Ruso pipeline deal..and the Saudi arabia "closer cooperation". Russia is seeking to get away of the economy recession because they know they will need a stable economy ..if they want to really help stop
the Ukraine conflict . and become an alternative to Ukrainians ,other than Europe and US.
Here is Ukraine 2012 results.. this map could be Re-used indeed to show which Strong division existed in Ukraine in that time.. the Pro NATO vs PRO RUssia camp..
on a side note.. if this same elections were made today..it will be nearly All Blue
the image ,since the Euromaidans factions all feel dissapointed with Europe and americans for not accepting them.. even the Right Sector are no longer using EU flags..and say bad things about them..
The blue zones are Russia friendly zones.. the Red zones , some unfriendly and other simply
voted for Tymoshenko because of promises of castles in the air if Ukraine was part of NATO and Europe. So the people saying Ukraine will not lose territory if totally collapse its economy....
and no longer any jobs ..LOLOLOLOL Good luck.. it will be similar to the soviet union collapse.
Notice how Ukraine and Belarusia ,they are Russians slavic.. and still voted for their independence.. The Moral of the Story is that in moments of crisis.. the economic security will
always win over any flag ,or patriotism or even political prefferences. Money for feeding your family is everything.. and even the NeoNazis will seek Russia help and will show a happy face to Russia if they find themselves jobless and without future . and will be speaking about "Russian
Brothers.". If thats the only way they see out of their personal economic problems.
But i dont think Russia will take the risk to Anex ukraine right away and have to finance their pensions without a period of test for Ukrainias of how they live together unders a new nation.
and without the Russian economy being stable. and most likely Ukraine will divide ,similar to Georgia.but losing most of its territory this time. That lost forever South Ossetia ,and ABkhazia. Belarus will also take territory from Ukraine.. and so Poland and Romania. So Ukraine could lose up to 75% of its territory across all its neighbors. and Russia will take the biggest Piece..
I really think that after Ukraine collapse .it is better to sink the entire project forever...
and influence the separated zones into creating a new flag..with new identity .. Ukraine needs
to die ,so its people can live and move to the future.
ONly when Ukrainians give up their Stupid Blind patriotism and their idea that Europe or americans will give them economic prosperity they need.. only then ,they will be ready to
move forward into a better future. Possibly a New Russia in Ukraine ,with a new economic
model ,that is a democratic communism-socialism with open business , if it works ,it could serve as a model for Russia Federation to implement in their future.