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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #18

    Cowboy's daughter
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #18 - Page 36 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #18

    Post  Cowboy's daughter Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:25 am

    Ситуация Новороссии ‏@EgoRZemtsoV 4h4 hours ago

    Когда #военторг дарит тебе оружие. 5 МСР взвода "Тайфун"

    When # Voentorg gives you a weapon. 5 MCP platoon "Typhoon"

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #18 - Page 36 CLRb8-mXAAAE59J

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #18 - Page 36 CLRb9F5WgAAUm5k
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:32 am

    Ситуация Новороссии ‏@EgoRZemtsoV 6h6 hours ago

    Financial Times:Ukrainian army is demoralized and losing confidence in Kiev

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #18 - Page 36 CLRH0bpWwAAUTwP
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    Post  PapaDragon Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:58 am

    Cowboy's daughter wrote:Ситуация Новороссии ‏@EgoRZemtsoV 4h4 hours ago

    Когда #военторг дарит тебе оружие. 5 МСР взвода "Тайфун"

    When # Voentorg gives you a weapon. 5 MCP platoon "Typhoon"

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #18 - Page 36 CLRb8-mXAAAE59J

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #18 - Page 36 CLRb9F5WgAAUm5k

    Photo of the diplomatic representative of Russian Federation in Novorossia:

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #18 - Page 36 Santa-Claus-01-450x300

    lol1 Very Happy santa
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    Post  Vann7 Sat Aug 01, 2015 2:08 am

    Sudenly Yatsenyuk is not as crazy behind the scenes as he shows today,when he was not told what to say or how to behave by his American Government mentors..

    Yatsenyuk in 2012 : Putin saved Russia and completed his historical mission




    Does that looks like the same cracy Prime Minister ,that today have kiev?
    Not at all.. What we have today is a circus.. Paid Actors in Kiev..at least ..from the top positions in power.



    The former Ministry of Defense of Ukraine , who lead the war against Donetsk and Lugansk
    for the first year.. received a "gift" by mysterious friends of a property of 36 millions $$ dollars
    in UK.. when he was removed with honors from his position by Poroshenko after the petition his bad performance in the war.

    Just imagine ..if that was the defense ministry.. how much moneyPoroshenko and Yatsenyuk now have to be offered if they continue with the war against Ethnic Russians? and their Anti Russian hostile policy?

    Behind the scenes if there was no Big money under the table ,what you saw in the video above.
    is the real politicians what they really believe and think.. Yatsenyuk falled short of prasing
    Putin for saving Russia.  Moral of the story ..what you see in Kiev from its top leadership ,
    what they say in public is a show... and not really what they think or believe..  The Ukraine Government today is financed and paid to keep Ukraine as a hostile nation to RUssia. There might be real Rushopbic people in kiev.. but the people that the White house needs in Kiev
    are not exactly crazy people.. but leaders they know can do the job they were asked to do..
    That is use Ukraine to Split Russia from Europe.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #18 - Page 36 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #18

    Post  Guest Sat Aug 01, 2015 7:07 am

    drunken drunken drunken drunken drunken
    I hear that incidents of drunk Ukrop soldiers are now more or less part of every day life around the ATO zone. Here is a fun little clip from Kharkov: http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201508010703-pyni.htm


    Last edited by Ivan the Colorado on Sat Aug 01, 2015 7:09 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Snleiplg)
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Aug 01, 2015 7:45 am

    auslander wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:And some of the recent messages from Gorlovka. Tanks and howitzers at Maiorsk, 5th quarter and Kalinovka under bombardment. Also seems some developments at Krasny Partizan again, a likely axis of advance when they come.

    I guess OSCE only works 9 to 5, after that it's party time in the hotel bar. Damn them too.
    May I ask where is Russia's condemnation for Kiev's murder of civilians? Russia not only lacks action but it also lacks words.

    Eastern Ukrainians are like Tutsis. Nobody gives a f!ck even if they are all killed.
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    Post  Ruthenius Sat Aug 01, 2015 7:48 am

    When you think that they all just cannot degrade any lower

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4514313.ece

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    Post  whir Sat Aug 01, 2015 8:06 am

    Ruthenius wrote:When you think that they all just cannot degrade any lower
    The Times wrote:Ukraine rebels ‘building dirty bomb’ with Russian scientists
    Maxim Tucker Donetsk Published at 12:02AM, August 1 2015

    Rebels in Ukraine are working to develop a radioactive dirty bomb with the help of Russian nuclear scientists, according to a Ukrainian security service dossier obtained by The Times.

    The report draws on hacked emails between rebels and intercepted radio communications, as well as a field agent’s findings. It claims that Russian specialists have withdrawn radioactive industrial waste from a secure bunker at the Donetsk state chemical plant and moved it to a rebel military base, where it can be combined with explosives to create a devastating effective weapon. Continue reading.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Aug 01, 2015 8:41 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:Which is the reality? what are the reasons not to go on the offensive for either side?

    Novorossiya will not attack as that will break Minsk and will be the excuse for ukrops offensive and bad PR for Russia and be against the "cunning plan", geopolitics etc etc.
    But: VSN cannot long delay an attack because of growing internal dissent about inactivity and, more importantly, ukrops defences will become too great for VSN to overcome without direct Russian assistance, which will not happen. Minsk is already broken by Kiev, the anti Russian hysteria is in full swing and Russia will get all the blame no matter who is responsible for any offensive, so what is there to loose by a VSN offensive?

    Kiev will not attack as they do not want to be seen as the side that breaks Minsk.
    But: They clearly break Minsk, they know they break Minsk and their handlers know they break Minsk. Western poodles of Washington and MSM tell everybody that Novorossiya Russia, breaks Minsk every day and that only Kiev holds Minsk. As Kiev will not be blamed for any offensive as the blame is already heaped on Russia, what is there to loose by a ukrops offensive? and after all, it is an ATO and people in the west will probably wonder why Kiev does not attack to destroy these "terrorists" by now.

    The essence of a "cunning plan" is that nobody, least of all denizens of the networks, will have any idea what it is, otherwise it will hardly be a "cunning plan". Waiting for Ukraine to implode and then simply walk in to claim the spoils is not much of a plan and hardly cunning. Washington knows the true state of affairs in Kiev, and they will simply let it implode ?. One side cannot sit waiting for something it hopes will happen, and the other side cannot sit hoping it will not happen, this is not human nature, this is not a plan for either side. The cards are stacked against Kiev, they know this, their handlers know this and I think it is they who will not wait because they cannot wait.

    The rebels (prompted by Russia I suspect) have pushed for the withdrawal of sub-100mm artillery. If those efforts reach success and there is some indication that the US has got on board and that Poroshenko is now pushing it through - then we can expect that these sort of bombardments and artillery exchanges will die down.
    There will for sure be more initiatives if this one succeeds - with the ultimate objective of quieting artillery in this region - this is one thing Russia doesn't need at the moment.

    On the other hand, if these initiatives are rejected or accepted formally but ignored de-facto (as has been the case up until now), then a limited offensive will be needed to push the Maidanists back - however Russia hopes that it won't come to that and that everything can quieten down.

    The reason is very simple - and it has to do with that same 'cunning plan' that you correctly identified, and that many of the agitators in this thread such as Flagship Haushofer et all. also seem to have no problem identifying but for whatever reason you all seem to keep forgetting it.

    So let me remind you again - waiting for the Ukraine to implode. OK, technically not a cunning one, nor a subtle one, but one that I must say - has been going swimmingly.
    The economic and social collapse of the Ukraine has been happeneing at a pace exceeding projections. True, the government and statehood has been holding on for the last 17-18 months - but this is nothing unusual; the Soviet Union under the same sort of conditions held out for 6 years (3 years from the point the first internal conflict broke out in Nagorny-Karabakh in 1988); while Yugoslavia held out for about 3 years; the process was slow and painful and nothing happened immediately.

    The latest news, as mentioned 2-3 pages ago - is that Ukrainian power generation is in crisis; Ukrainian thermal power plants are critically low on coal; the Ukraine has no money to buy gas for the winter season which also includes the gas for its gas-fired power plants, the nuclear power plants are experiencing problems with the attempt to change to American fuel.

    Know what requires electricity? Industry. If Ukrainian power-generation goes; it's heavy industries will be forced to shut-down at least partially (and due to the lack of gas too), same with many light industries - this will immediately cut industrial output and further accelerate Ukrainian economic collapse.
    This is really a critical juncture and if the Ukraine proves unable to deal with this, one of their most serious problems yet; and there is little cause to suspect that they will be able to as so far they've managed to mess up everything else - then it will just further cascade into yet more grave problems.

    Russia is patient, it can afford to be, the direction it chose was of waiting for the Ukrainian government to collapse and be overthrown by its own people and so far everything is going to plan.
    Why should it have to risk doing something that would derail the current course of favourable events? Why should it order any offensives? Why should it risk drawing support to the Ukrainian government again by making itself into an external enemy? Why should it betray its own propaganda effort that it has been developing amongst the Ukrainian population for the last year?
    Why why why?
    I don't understand you people. I can't understand you.
    You just keep talking the same rubbish. Pull your heads out of your ass, FFS, and see the big picture.

    Know what Russia did while Dudayev's Chechnya was turning into an international crime-nest of arms trafficking, drug-smuggling? While the ethnic Russian population was being evicted from their homes?
    Nothing.
    It just waited too, and in fact tried to negotiate. 3 years of negotiation. Then an attempt at formenting a rebellion there through local allied elements (who were strong in the north, much like the NAF are dominant in the Donbass), once it garnered sufficient support; and long after Chechnya's economy had collapsed due to its own ruler's ineptness and Russia's isolation of it. Yet that didn't succeed either. Then - and only then - when none of those approaches brought any results - did Russia actually directly invade.
    And this - for a republic that was by international law - actually a part of Russia; where Russia had the juristiction to solve its own internal problem however it wanted to.

    Now, I'm not saying the Russian approach in Chechnya was correct - in retrospect Russia itself played a large part in forming that lawlessness, and it should have acted/reacted to the unfriendly turn of events sooner.
    However, what it does go to show - is Russia's approach; and it's patience - and this hasn't changed much since; Russia is exercising the same caution in the Ukraine. This time however, the results are already noticeable, and dissent is already visibly building-up in the Ukraine. 18 months gone so far. Let's see how it will all look in another 18 months. Russia has time on its side, don't forget that, and it has chosen its course. So FFS, stop fkcing panicking.

    This is all good but you forget something when you compare the future disintegration of Ukraine to the disintegration of the USSR. Ukraine is a mono-ethnic country while the USSR consisted of different republics where Russians were the minority in all of them except Russia.

    Even if Ukraine completely collapses economically it would not necessarily mean that the country will disintegrate. There are many examples of countries that have been total basket cases for years or even decades but who have kept their territorial integrity, like Somalia.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #18 - Page 36 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #18

    Post  Ghoster Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:53 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:Which is the reality? what are the reasons not to go on the offensive for either side?

    Novorossiya will not attack as that will break Minsk and will be the excuse for ukrops offensive and bad PR for Russia and be against the "cunning plan", geopolitics etc etc.
    But: VSN cannot long delay an attack because of growing internal dissent about inactivity and, more importantly, ukrops defences will become too great for VSN to overcome without direct Russian assistance, which will not happen. Minsk is already broken by Kiev, the anti Russian hysteria is in full swing and Russia will get all the blame no matter who is responsible for any offensive, so what is there to loose by a VSN offensive?

    Kiev will not attack as they do not want to be seen as the side that breaks Minsk.
    But: They clearly break Minsk, they know they break Minsk and their handlers know they break Minsk. Western poodles of Washington and MSM tell everybody that Novorossiya Russia, breaks Minsk every day and that only Kiev holds Minsk. As Kiev will not be blamed for any offensive as the blame is already heaped on Russia, what is there to loose by a ukrops offensive? and after all, it is an ATO and people in the west will probably wonder why Kiev does not attack to destroy these "terrorists" by now.

    The essence of a "cunning plan" is that nobody, least of all denizens of the networks, will have any idea what it is, otherwise it will hardly be a "cunning plan". Waiting for Ukraine to implode and then simply walk in to claim the spoils is not much of a plan and hardly cunning. Washington knows the true state of affairs in Kiev, and they will simply let it implode ?. One side cannot sit waiting for something it hopes will happen, and the other side cannot sit hoping it will not happen, this is not human nature, this is not a plan for either side. The cards are stacked against Kiev, they know this, their handlers know this and I think it is they who will not wait because they cannot wait.
    So let me remind you again - waiting for the Ukraine to implode. OK, technically not a cunning one, nor a subtle one, but one that I must say - has been going swimmingly.
    The economic and social collapse of the Ukraine has been happeneing at a pace exceeding projections. True, the government and statehood has been holding on for the last 17-18 months - but this is nothing unusual; the Soviet Union under the same sort of conditions held out for 6 years (3 years from the point the first internal conflict broke out in Nagorny-Karabakh in 1988); while Yugoslavia held out for about 3 years; the process was slow and painful and nothing happened immediately.

    The latest news, as mentioned 2-3 pages ago - is that Ukrainian power generation is in crisis; Ukrainian thermal power plants are critically low on coal; the Ukraine has no money to buy gas for the winter season which also includes the gas for its gas-fired power plants, the nuclear power plants are experiencing problems with the attempt to change to American fuel.

    Know what requires electricity? Industry. If Ukrainian power-generation goes; it's heavy industries will be forced to shut-down at least partially (and due to the lack of gas too), same with many light industries - this will immediately cut industrial output and further accelerate Ukrainian economic collapse.
    This is really a critical juncture and if the Ukraine proves unable to deal with this, one of their most serious problems yet; and there is little cause to suspect that they will be able to as so far they've managed to mess up everything else - then it will just further cascade into yet more grave problems.

    Russia is patient, it can afford to be, the direction it chose was of waiting for the Ukrainian government to collapse and be overthrown by its own people and so far everything is going to plan.
    Why should it have to risk doing something that would derail the current course of favourable events? Why should it order any offensives? Why should it risk drawing support to the Ukrainian government again by making itself into an external enemy? Why should it betray its own propaganda effort that it has been developing amongst the Ukrainian population for the last year?
    Why why why?
    I don't understand you people. I can't understand you.
    You just keep talking the same rubbish. Pull your heads out of your ass, FFS, and see the big picture.

    Know what Russia did while Dudayev's Chechnya was turning into an international crime-nest of arms trafficking, drug-smuggling? While the ethnic Russian population was being evicted from their homes?
    Nothing.
    It just waited too, and in fact tried to negotiate. 3 years of negotiation. Then an attempt at formenting a rebellion there through local allied elements (who were strong in the north, much like the NAF are dominant in the Donbass), once it garnered sufficient support; and long after Chechnya's economy had collapsed due to its own ruler's ineptness and Russia's isolation of it. Yet that didn't succeed either. Then - and only then - when none of those approaches brought any results - did Russia actually directly invade.
    And this - for a republic that was by international law - actually a part of Russia; where Russia had the juristiction to solve its own internal problem however it wanted to.

    Now, I'm not saying the Russian approach in Chechnya was correct - in retrospect Russia itself played a large part in forming that lawlessness, and it should have acted/reacted to the unfriendly turn of events sooner.
    However, what it does go to show - is Russia's approach; and it's patience - and this hasn't changed much since; Russia is exercising the same caution in the Ukraine. This time however, the results are already noticeable, and dissent is already visibly building-up in the Ukraine. 18 months gone so far. Let's see how it will all look in another 18 months. Russia has time on its side, don't forget that, and it has chosen its course. So FFS, stop fkcing panicking.
    The attacks against Donetsk, Gorlovka and other cities can only be classed as a genocide. Doing nothing to stop or condemn it is akin to supporting it. I haven't seen any condemnation from Russia or any threats of sanctions against junta for killing innocent civilians every day.

    Here's what Russia's patience will do. In Gorlovka alone there are 6 civilians wounded and 2 killed every day. And this will only increase. That means that by the end of the year there will be 300 more civilian victims and about a thousand wounded.

    Ukraine won't collapse because of some energy crisis. It was 10 times worse last winter, and everyone was sure the government would collapse just after a week or two. It won't. As long as it has access to IMF and other western aid, not to mention transit fees and cheap gas from Russia, it won't collapse.

    There won't be any NAF offensive. Russia doesn't want more economic sanctions and problems for its economy, so it won't allow it to happen either.

    Keeping these things in mind, there probably is a higher chance of Novorossiya being destroyed in these 18 months rather than Ukraine. Its civilians are getting massacred every day by artillery after all. That would seem like a much more important problem, and inaction would more likely lead to a collapse.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #18 - Page 36 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #18

    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Aug 01, 2015 10:05 am

    Ghoster wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:Which is the reality? what are the reasons not to go on the offensive for either side?

    Novorossiya will not attack as that will break Minsk and will be the excuse for ukrops offensive and bad PR for Russia and be against the "cunning plan", geopolitics etc etc.
    But: VSN cannot long delay an attack because of growing internal dissent about inactivity and, more importantly, ukrops defences will become too great for VSN to overcome without direct Russian assistance, which will not happen. Minsk is already broken by Kiev, the anti Russian hysteria is in full swing and Russia will get all the blame no matter who is responsible for any offensive, so what is there to loose by a VSN offensive?

    Kiev will not attack as they do not want to be seen as the side that breaks Minsk.
    But: They clearly break Minsk, they know they break Minsk and their handlers know they break Minsk. Western poodles of Washington and MSM tell everybody that Novorossiya Russia, breaks Minsk every day and that only Kiev holds Minsk. As Kiev will not be blamed for any offensive as the blame is already heaped on Russia, what is there to loose by a ukrops offensive? and after all, it is an ATO and people in the west will probably wonder why Kiev does not attack to destroy these "terrorists" by now.

    The essence of a "cunning plan" is that nobody, least of all denizens of the networks, will have any idea what it is, otherwise it will hardly be a "cunning plan". Waiting for Ukraine to implode and then simply walk in to claim the spoils is not much of a plan and hardly cunning. Washington knows the true state of affairs in Kiev, and they will simply let it implode ?. One side cannot sit waiting for something it hopes will happen, and the other side cannot sit hoping it will not happen, this is not human nature, this is not a plan for either side. The cards are stacked against Kiev, they know this, their handlers know this and I think it is they who will not wait because they cannot wait.
    So let me remind you again - waiting for the Ukraine to implode. OK, technically not a cunning one, nor a subtle one, but one that I must say - has been going swimmingly.
    The economic and social collapse of the Ukraine has been happeneing at a pace exceeding projections. True, the government and statehood has been holding on for the last 17-18 months - but this is nothing unusual; the Soviet Union under the same sort of conditions held out for 6 years (3 years from the point the first internal conflict broke out in Nagorny-Karabakh in 1988); while Yugoslavia held out for about 3 years; the process was slow and painful and nothing happened immediately.

    The latest news, as mentioned 2-3 pages ago - is that Ukrainian power generation is in crisis; Ukrainian thermal power plants are critically low on coal; the Ukraine has no money to buy gas for the winter season which also includes the gas for its gas-fired power plants, the nuclear power plants are experiencing problems with the attempt to change to American fuel.

    Know what requires electricity? Industry. If Ukrainian power-generation goes; it's heavy industries will be forced to shut-down at least partially (and due to the lack of gas too), same with many light industries - this will immediately cut industrial output and further accelerate Ukrainian economic collapse.
    This is really a critical juncture and if the Ukraine proves unable to deal with this, one of their most serious problems yet; and there is little cause to suspect that they will be able to as so far they've managed to mess up everything else - then it will just further cascade into yet more grave problems.

    Russia is patient, it can afford to be, the direction it chose was of waiting for the Ukrainian government to collapse and be overthrown by its own people and so far everything is going to plan.
    Why should it have to risk doing something that would derail the current course of favourable events? Why should it order any offensives? Why should it risk drawing support to the Ukrainian government again by making itself into an external enemy? Why should it betray its own propaganda effort that it has been developing amongst the Ukrainian population for the last year?
    Why why why?
    I don't understand you people. I can't understand you.
    You just keep talking the same rubbish. Pull your heads out of your ass, FFS, and see the big picture.

    Know what Russia did while Dudayev's Chechnya was turning into an international crime-nest of arms trafficking, drug-smuggling? While the ethnic Russian population was being evicted from their homes?
    Nothing.
    It just waited too, and in fact tried to negotiate. 3 years of negotiation. Then an attempt at formenting a rebellion there through local allied elements (who were strong in the north, much like the NAF are dominant in the Donbass), once it garnered sufficient support; and long after Chechnya's economy had collapsed due to its own ruler's ineptness and Russia's isolation of it. Yet that didn't succeed either. Then - and only then - when none of those approaches brought any results - did Russia actually directly invade.
    And this - for a republic that was by international law - actually a part of Russia; where Russia had the juristiction to solve its own internal problem however it wanted to.

    Now, I'm not saying the Russian approach in Chechnya was correct - in retrospect Russia itself played a large part in forming that lawlessness, and it should have acted/reacted to the unfriendly turn of events sooner.
    However, what it does go to show - is Russia's approach; and it's patience - and this hasn't changed much since; Russia is exercising the same caution in the Ukraine. This time however, the results are already noticeable, and dissent is already visibly building-up in the Ukraine. 18 months gone so far. Let's see how it will all look in another 18 months. Russia has time on its side, don't forget that, and it has chosen its course. So FFS, stop fkcing panicking.
    The attacks against Donetsk, Gorlovka and other cities can only be classed as a genocide. Doing nothing to stop or condemn it is akin to supporting it. I haven't seen any condemnation from Russia or any threats of sanctions against junta for killing innocent civilians every day.

    Here's what Russia's patience will do. In Gorlovka alone there are 6 civilians wounded and 2 killed every day. And this will only increase. That means that by the end of the year there will be 300 more civilian victims and about a thousand wounded.

    Ukraine won't collapse because of some energy crisis. It was 10 times worse last winter, and everyone was sure the government would collapse just after a week or two. It won't. As long as it has access to IMF and other western aid, not to mention transit fees and cheap gas from Russia, it won't collapse.

    There won't be any NAF offensive. Russia doesn't want more economic sanctions and problems for its economy, so it won't allow it to happen either.

    Keeping these things in mind, there probably is a higher chance of Novorossiya being destroyed in these 18 months rather than Ukraine. Its civilians are getting massacred every day by artillery after all. That would seem like a much more important problem, and inaction would more likely lead to a collapse.

    Unfortunately you are right.

    What bothers me the most is the lack of reaction from Russia to all of this. I already wrote about but will say it again: Russia has NOT condemned Ukraine's actions in Donbass. Russia has NOT demanded Ukraine to stop the war. Russia has NOT asked the UN Security Council to condemn Ukraine using artillery against civilians. All Russia is saying is basically for both parties of the war to stick with that fecking Minsk agreement.

    The Donbass people are the Tutsis of our time. Nobody cares about them.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #18 - Page 36 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #18

    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Aug 01, 2015 10:06 am

    In fact the comparison to Tutsis is not correct since the "international community" was indifferent about the genocide of Tutsis.

    Donbass people are a different case since the "international community" actually wants to wipe them out.
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    Post  Khepesh Sat Aug 01, 2015 10:12 am

    flamming_python wrote:

    Now, I'm not saying the Russian approach in Chechnya was correct - in retrospect Russia itself played a large part in forming that lawlessness, and it should have acted/reacted to the unfriendly turn of events sooner
    I'll just take that part of your post, "sooner"

    Look, I'm military and have been all my life, I don't give a fuck about economics, politics and diplomacy, if I did I would be on a forum specifically for those subjects. I say that Dzerzhinsk should be taken today for military reasons and am not interested that we should wait a year, or two, or five, the residents of Gorlovka will have a harsh answer for anybody who dares say that to their face. If Chechens had been bombarding Vladikavkaz I doubt even the asshole Yeltsin would have delayed action, that they were not is actually irrelevant, but ukrops are bombarding Gorlovka and Donetsk, so why wait. This is almost being treated as if there was no war and both sides are worried about implications of starting a fight, but the reality is that the war is 18 months old and continues every day. There is a very legally shaky ceasefire, not some treaty of Versaille, ceasefires are nothing, less than an armistice, vapour, so what is the problem for VSN to actually defend the cities by removing the possibility of artillery bombardment? Please lay this out clearly.
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    Post  whir Sat Aug 01, 2015 10:15 am

    A tap in the back and some imaginary cookies would have been much more convenient Rolling Eyes.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Aug 01, 2015 10:46 am

    And another difference between the disintegration of USSR and the supposed future disintegration of Ukraine (from the post in last page) is that the disintegration of the USSR was initiated by Moscow itself. Yes, the USSR was disintegrated from Moscow, not from the republics. There were some wars/conflicts in the Caucasus region and instability mainly in Baltic countries, but the absolute majority of the country was perfectly peaceful. Ukraine (yes, hard to believe that now!), Belarus and the Central Asian states did not actively seek separation from the USSR. It was the Kremlin who broke the USSR.

    Situation in Ukraine is vastly different. The Kiev regime and it's western backers are willing to go to any lengths to keep the country intact. The same will lacked in Moscow in 1991. If different people were in charge in Russia in 1991 the USSR might still be intact. The disintegration of the country was not a necessity, it was a choice.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:14 am

    2 Maidan soldiers KIA 14 Maidan soldiers WIA yesterday because of NAF counter fire.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:19 am

    Ukraine is a crazy country. I swear to god.

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/poroshenko-kyiv-to-develop-road-map-to-provide-crimea-with-status-of-national-territorial-autonomy-within-ukraine-394830.html


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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:19 am

    Karl Haushofer wrote:The same will lacked in Moscow in 1991. If different people were in charge in Russia in 1991 the USSR might still be intact. The disintegration of the country was not a necessity, it was a choice.

    The USSR was too discredited after the August coup, though a different Union might have survived. Wink
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Aug 01, 2015 12:31 pm

    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:The same will lacked in Moscow in 1991. If different people were in charge in Russia in 1991 the USSR might still be intact. The disintegration of the country was not a necessity, it was a choice.

    The USSR was too discredited after the August coup, though a different Union might have survived. Wink

    There SHOULD have been enough will and patriotism to save the country after the coup attempt. This was a superpower with 300 million people and nukes.

    Nothing catastrophic or irreversible had yet happened. People in Kremlin were just incompetent fools.


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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sat Aug 01, 2015 12:32 pm

    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:The same will lacked in Moscow in 1991. If different people were in charge in Russia in 1991 the USSR might still be intact. The disintegration of the country was not a necessity, it was a choice.

    The USSR was too discredited after the August coup, though a different Union might have survived. Wink

    Read about the deal regarding USSR, the Union was dead as soon as Yeltsin became RSSFR Chairman then it was down hill. The motherfucker and his douchebag cronies had made deals to break up the Union ANYWAY. It was a firesale and worked like all firesales. Everyone grabbed what they could and ran with it. Ukraine and Russia had big issues with the Central Asian Republics especially Kazakhstan that tried to avoid the break up straight away. It happened despite the will of more than half the people of USSR. This is the reality and this is why Russia.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Aug 01, 2015 12:40 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:The same will lacked in Moscow in 1991. If different people were in charge in Russia in 1991 the USSR might still be intact. The disintegration of the country was not a necessity, it was a choice.

    The USSR was too discredited after the August coup, though a different Union might have survived. Wink

    Read about the deal regarding USSR, the Union was dead as soon as Yeltsin became RSSFR Chairman then it was down hill. The motherfucker and his douchebag cronies had made deals to break up the Union ANYWAY. It was a firesale and worked like all firesales. Everyone grabbed what they could and ran with it. Ukraine and Russia had big issues with the Central Asian Republics especially Kazakhstan that tried to avoid the break up straight away. It happened despite the will of more than half the people of USSR. This is the reality and this is why Russia.

    I have always thought that Kazakhstan is the wisest country in the FSU. The USSR should have moved the capital from Moscow to Alma-Ata or Ust-Kamenogorsk and the country would have been saved from disintegration.
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Sat Aug 01, 2015 12:43 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:There SHOULD have been enough will and patriotism to save the country after the coup. This was a superpower with 300 million people and nukes.

    It was a rotting superpower that was losing more and more influence and control over its territory.
    Kind of like modern-day Ukraine without superpower status and nukes.

    Karl Haushofer wrote:Nothing catastrophic or irreversible had yet happened. People in Kremlin were just incompetent fools.

    The first SSRs were already seceding from the Union.
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Aug 01, 2015 12:55 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:Which is the reality? what are the reasons not to go on the offensive for either side?

    Novorossiya will not attack as that will break Minsk and will be the excuse for ukrops offensive and bad PR for Russia and be against the "cunning plan", geopolitics etc etc.
    But: VSN cannot long delay an attack because of growing internal dissent about inactivity and, more importantly, ukrops defences will become too great for VSN to overcome without direct Russian assistance, which will not happen. Minsk is already broken by Kiev, the anti Russian hysteria is in full swing and Russia will get all the blame no matter who is responsible for any offensive, so what is there to loose by a VSN offensive?

    Kiev will not attack as they do not want to be seen as the side that breaks Minsk.
    But: They clearly break Minsk, they know they break Minsk and their handlers know they break Minsk. Western poodles of Washington and MSM tell everybody that Novorossiya Russia, breaks Minsk every day and that only Kiev holds Minsk. As Kiev will not be blamed for any offensive as the blame is already heaped on Russia, what is there to loose by a ukrops offensive? and after all, it is an ATO and people in the west will probably wonder why Kiev does not attack to destroy these "terrorists" by now.

    The essence of a "cunning plan" is that nobody, least of all denizens of the networks, will have any idea what it is, otherwise it will hardly be a "cunning plan". Waiting for Ukraine to implode and then simply walk in to claim the spoils is not much of a plan and hardly cunning. Washington knows the true state of affairs in Kiev, and they will simply let it implode ?. One side cannot sit waiting for something it hopes will happen, and the other side cannot sit hoping it will not happen, this is not human nature, this is not a plan for either side. The cards are stacked against Kiev, they know this, their handlers know this and I think it is they who will not wait because they cannot wait.

    The rebels (prompted by Russia I suspect) have pushed for the withdrawal of sub-100mm artillery. If those efforts reach success and there is some indication that the US has got on board and that Poroshenko is now pushing it through - then we can expect that these sort of bombardments and artillery exchanges will die down.
    There will for sure be more initiatives if this one succeeds - with the ultimate objective of quieting artillery in this region - this is one thing Russia doesn't need at the moment.

    On the other hand, if these initiatives are rejected or accepted formally but ignored de-facto (as has been the case up until now), then a limited offensive will be needed to push the Maidanists back - however Russia hopes that it won't come to that and that everything can quieten down.

    The reason is very simple - and it has to do with that same 'cunning plan' that you correctly identified, and that many of the agitators in this thread such as Flagship Haushofer et all. also seem to have no problem identifying but for whatever reason you all seem to keep forgetting it.

    So let me remind you again - waiting for the Ukraine to implode. OK, technically not a cunning one, nor a subtle one, but one that I must say - has been going swimmingly.
    The economic and social collapse of the Ukraine has been happeneing at a pace exceeding projections. True, the government and statehood has been holding on for the last 17-18 months - but this is nothing unusual; the Soviet Union under the same sort of conditions held out for 6 years (3 years from the point the first internal conflict broke out in Nagorny-Karabakh in 1988); while Yugoslavia held out for about 3 years; the process was slow and painful and nothing happened immediately.

    The latest news, as mentioned 2-3 pages ago - is that Ukrainian power generation is in crisis; Ukrainian thermal power plants are critically low on coal; the Ukraine has no money to buy gas for the winter season which also includes the gas for its gas-fired power plants, the nuclear power plants are experiencing problems with the attempt to change to American fuel.

    Know what requires electricity? Industry. If Ukrainian power-generation goes; it's heavy industries will be forced to shut-down at least partially (and due to the lack of gas too), same with many light industries - this will immediately cut industrial output and further accelerate Ukrainian economic collapse.
    This is really a critical juncture and if the Ukraine proves unable to deal with this, one of their most serious problems yet; and there is little cause to suspect that they will be able to as so far they've managed to mess up everything else - then it will just further cascade into yet more grave problems.

    Russia is patient, it can afford to be, the direction it chose was of waiting for the Ukrainian government to collapse and be overthrown by its own people and so far everything is going to plan.
    Why should it have to risk doing something that would derail the current course of favourable events? Why should it order any offensives? Why should it risk drawing support to the Ukrainian government again by making itself into an external enemy? Why should it betray its own propaganda effort that it has been developing amongst the Ukrainian population for the last year?
    Why why why?
    I don't understand you people. I can't understand you.
    You just keep talking the same rubbish. Pull your heads out of your ass, FFS, and see the big picture.

    Know what Russia did while Dudayev's Chechnya was turning into an international crime-nest of arms trafficking, drug-smuggling? While the ethnic Russian population was being evicted from their homes?
    Nothing.
    It just waited too, and in fact tried to negotiate. 3 years of negotiation. Then an attempt at formenting a rebellion there through local allied elements (who were strong in the north, much like the NAF are dominant in the Donbass), once it garnered sufficient support; and long after Chechnya's economy had collapsed due to its own ruler's ineptness and Russia's isolation of it. Yet that didn't succeed either. Then - and only then - when none of those approaches brought any results - did Russia actually directly invade.
    And this - for a republic that was by international law - actually a part of Russia; where Russia had the juristiction to solve its own internal problem however it wanted to.

    Now, I'm not saying the Russian approach in Chechnya was correct - in retrospect Russia itself played a large part in forming that lawlessness, and it should have acted/reacted to the unfriendly turn of events sooner.
    However, what it does go to show - is Russia's approach; and it's patience - and this hasn't changed much since; Russia is exercising the same caution in the Ukraine. This time however, the results are already noticeable, and dissent is already visibly building-up in the Ukraine. 18 months gone so far. Let's see how it will all look in another 18 months. Russia has time on its side, don't forget that, and it has chosen its course. So FFS, stop fkcing panicking.

    This is all good but you forget something when you compare the future disintegration of Ukraine to the disintegration of the USSR. Ukraine is a mono-ethnic country while the USSR consisted of different republics where Russians were the minority in all of them except Russia.

    Even if Ukraine completely collapses economically it would not necessarily mean that the country will disintegrate. There are many examples of countries that have been total basket cases for years or even decades but who have kept their territorial integrity, like Somalia.

    Bad example - Somalia did not maintain its territorial integrity - it ultimately collapsed into 2 countries; present-day Somalia and Somaliland, which is a lawless warzone ruled by warlords and one that split from Somalia proper.

    The Ukraine is not ethnically homogenous and the Crimea and the Donbass proves it. Ethnic Russians feared prosecution and Ukrainian nationalism so they split. The same process can repeat in Kharkov and Odessa; those regions are on the verge and dissent is only being suppressed with violence and repression.
    Furthermore, the Transcarpathian region; with its heterogenous population of Hungarians, Rusyns and so on - and no the official demographic statistics don't tell the whole story.

    But I wasn't really talking about the Ukraine disintegrating, I was talking about its government collapsing and being overthrown by its own people - which I believe is what Russia is waiting for; not neccesserily for the Ukraine to fracture into lots of small countries.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Aug 01, 2015 12:56 pm

    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    It was a rotting superpower that was losing more and more influence and control over its territory.
    Kind of like modern-day Ukraine without superpower status.
    Yes, you are right but the situation was not irreversible imo. The country should have been kept intact (even with use of force if needed) but the fecked up communist system should have been disbanded. Capitalism is the way to go. Keep the land, but change the economics. Now the USSR did it all wrong. They tried to preserve the idiotic communist system to the end and then let it all collapse out of choice.

    Land is more valuable than anything else. You never give up land voluntarily. Land has the resources. Land has the space where people can live.


    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    The first SSRs were already seceding from the Union.
    But wasn't this only after Russia itself had seceded from the Union? And weren't those SSR's Baltic countries and maybe Georgia and Moldova?

    In my opinion at least the "core" of the country (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan) should have been kept together. This would have not required a war since the majority of the people in these countries did not support a separation. Also, some "rearrangements" of borders should have been done. Lithuania should have been forced to give a slice of it's territory for the "USSR" (or whatever the country would have been called at that point) to give the USSR a land route to Kaliningrad. (And this would have also conveniently blocked all three Baltic states from the rest of Europe).

    Naturally Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria would have also been included to the USSR. Maybe some rearrangements of borders would have been needed in Caucasus as well.

    You have to remember that at this point the USSR still existed and no country had recognized any new states, so these border rearrangements would have been an internal matter of the USSR. So there would have likely not been that many international protests over them.

    So what SHOULD have happened is a controlled breakup of the country. Let only those states go who want to go with needed border rearrangements.

    And what really happened was an uncontrolled collapse of a country that left Russia vulnerable and with unfavorable borders, and also let Ukraine (the core part of the USSR) vulnerable for the western/banderite takeover.


    Last edited by Karl Haushofer on Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:03 pm; edited 4 times in total
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Sat Aug 01, 2015 12:59 pm

    Ruthenius wrote:When you think that they all just cannot degrade any lower

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4514313.ece


    This is so stupid it's beyond stupid. It's beyond low.

    They must think that people have the brains the size of peas. Up to now, humans must have given them reason to think so. Tell humans any lie, any deception, & they believe that. Tell them the facts/truth, and they don't.

    & some persons are just so evil.


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