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    Azerbaijan vs Armenia [Nagorno-Karabakh conflict]

    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Sep 10, 2023 6:56 pm

    Yeah, Armenia refuses CSTO military exercises but does one with US.

    Russia needs to remove Armenia from CSTO and let the Yanks attempt to move in. Turkey will prevent that and Armenia will be alone and they will cry a river but end up nearly losing their own state. Lavrov mentioned how Armenia is acting after G20 summit. With friends like them, you don't need enemies.

    But what I do find interesting is how so many Russian allies are willing to back stab Russia. Kazakhstan who needed russias assistance 1-2 years ago and Armenia due to Karabakh. Now all willingly do what Americans want.

    This war in Ukraine isn't helping with Russia going slow at it and allowing USA to help kill Russians. Sitting and just letting Ukraine keep building up while Russia sits as defense isn't gonna work forever, they need to have a plan to attack and gain more. Prove to the other "allies" that their little games won't save them if push comes to shove with Russia.

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    Walther von Oldenburg
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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Sun Sep 10, 2023 7:05 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Yeah, Armenia refuses CSTO military exercises but does one with US.

    Russia needs to remove Armenia from CSTO and let the Yanks attempt to move in. Turkey will prevent that and Armenia will be alone and they will cry a river but end up nearly losing their own state.  Lavrov mentioned how Armenia is acting after G20 summit.  With friends like them, you don't need enemies.

    But what I do find interesting is how so many Russian allies are willing to back stab Russia. Kazakhstan who needed russias assistance 1-2 years ago and Armenia due to Karabakh.  Now all willingly do what Americans want.

    This war in Ukraine isn't helping with Russia going slow at it and allowing USA to help kill Russians.  Sitting and just letting Ukraine keep building up while Russia sits as defense isn't gonna work forever, they need to have a plan to attack and gain more.  Prove to the other "allies" that their little games won't save them if push comes to shove with Russia.
    The Ru forces are still at a rough numerical parity with the Ukro forces. For example during Bagration the Soviet forces had 3 to 1 numerical advantage. In Ukraine there simply isn't enough troops to attack and won't be without additional 1-2 waves of mobilization.

    An example of a successful Soviet offensive. Look up the numbers:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Sep 10, 2023 7:13 pm

    Russia has about 300K troops sitting idle at the border.
    lyle6
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    Post  lyle6 Sun Sep 10, 2023 8:58 pm

    Force ratios that count only troops are retarded. We don't fight with hand-to-hand weapons such that more warm bodiesequals bigger chances of winning. We use guns, so what people should be counting is the amount of firepower available.

    And something tells me Russia is enjoying firepower advantages that would make the Soviet planners of Bagration green with envy.

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    Post  flamming_python Sun Sep 10, 2023 8:59 pm

    Very simple way to solve this whole thing

    If NATO tries to establish a base in Armenia, or Nagorno-Karabakh or wherever, immediately withdraw the Russian presence from all these areas. And don't worry about what happens next there. Russia doesn't need to be everywhere, and certainly not in a place where it's going to be blamed by both sides. There is nothing in it for Russia.

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    Post  JohninMK Sun Sep 10, 2023 10:54 pm

    Iran Observer
    @IranObserver0
    .
    5h
    Debunking Some Fake News:

    ● Turkey did not warn Iran

    ● Iranian troops are not heading to the borders with Armenia and Azerbaijan

    ● IRGC has not created Armenian paramilitary forces

    ● COS (Chief of Staff) Sardar Bagheri has not visited Baku

    ● Iran has not reached an agreement with Azerbaijan's Aliyev regime

    Factual News:

    ● Iran has sent a military delegation to Azerbaijan

    ● Iran will not accept territorial changes on its borders

    Iran Observer
    @IranObserver0
    ·
    Sep 9
    Iran's position regarding Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict:

    ● Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan

    ● Iran will not agree to cutting off its borders with Armenia because that would deny it access to Russia and Eastern Europe, and will use force if anyone tries to do so.

    Azerbaijan vs Armenia [Nagorno-Karabakh conflict] - Page 34 F5lFt6DX0AA2HYg?format=jpg&name=small

    ● Iran warned Armenia against inviting third parties to the region (USA)

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Sep 10, 2023 11:33 pm

    Sprinter
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    Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to reopen the Lachin corridor.

    The Azerbaijani government and Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh have agreed to open two disputed transport routes, including a key route known as the Lachin corridor.

    According to Armenian media reports, citing data from the Karabakh authorities, the parties decided to issue permission for Russian goods to enter this region through the city of Askeran, located near Azerbaijan.
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    Post  mnztr Mon Sep 11, 2023 7:41 am

    Sometimes races get genocided because they cannot live with others..
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    Post  GarryB Mon Sep 11, 2023 8:57 am

    The Ru forces are still at a rough numerical parity with the Ukro forces. For example during Bagration the Soviet forces had 3 to 1 numerical advantage. In Ukraine there simply isn't enough troops to attack and won't be without additional 1-2 waves of mobilization.

    The initial attack by Russia secured lots of territory around Kiev and in other places too... very simply it is not about numbers, it is about mobility.

    Kiev lacks armour and air power and mobility to fight a mobile conflict... even a static conflict is a struggle with moving forces around the place to defend the line or put pressure on some areas.

    Russia does not lack mobility or armour or airpower.

    Multiple attacks on multiple points along the front and Kievs forces would probably collapse in a lot of places... eventually that is what they might end up doing... but I also suspect they are secretly talking to people in charge of Ukrainian cities behind the front line negotiating potential responses if Russian troops arrive at their gates.

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    Post  flamming_python Mon Sep 11, 2023 9:02 am

    Moreover it's about force concentration

    The Germans on the Eastern Front were outmanned by the Red Army, but if you look at their offensives and attacks throughout 1941, 1942, 1943, you'll see that they outnumbered the enemy by 3x, 4x, 5x times. Because they managed to concentrate their forces where it mattered and when it mattered.

    The Ukrainians can do that and are doing that; right now on the Orekhov-Rabotino section - only it's not doing them much good.

    And Russia can do it easily too when it decides to do so, and rapidly break through Ukrainian lines along 1 or more axis

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    higurashihougi
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    Post  higurashihougi Mon Sep 11, 2023 2:24 pm

    https://www.rt.com/russia/582736-deal-humanitarian-aid-nagorno-karabakh/

    Deal reached to allow humanitarian aid to Nagorno-Karabakh

    The agreement between Azerbaijan and its breakaway region comes amid heightened tensions and a looming humanitarian crisis


    Authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan have agreed to allow humanitarian aid to flow to Baku’s predominantly Armenian-populated breakaway region along two routes, local officials and media have said.

    Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh have long insisted that Azerbaijan lift a blockade on the key Lachin corridor Baku took control of three years ago, the only direct route between the two sides. Meanwhile, the deal also means that Baku can restore a direct line to its breakaway region for the first time since the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the early 1990s.

    On Saturday, Karabakh authorities quoted by Armenpress news agency said they had decided to “allow the entry of Russian humanitarian shipments to our republic through the city of Askeran,” referring to a settlement not far from where Baku controls. They said the move sought “to mitigate the acute humanitarian problems caused by the complete blockade implemented by Azerbaijan.”

    In addition, Baku and Karabakh authorities agreed to restore “humanitarian cargo transportation by Russian peacekeepers and the International Committee of the Red Cross… through the Lachin corridor,” the report added, referring to the only road link between the contested region and Armenia.

    Hikmet Hajiyev, a foreign policy advisor to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, told Reuters that the two roads would be opened simultaneously but said that an Azerbaijani checkpoint in the Lachin corridor would remain in place.

    This settlement follows phone discussions between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the leaders of France, Germany, Iran, and Georgia, as well as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on Saturday. On the same day, the parliament of Nagorno-Karabakh elected a new president, Samvel Shahramanyan. Neither Baku nor the EU recognized the legitimacy of the election.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Mon Sep 11, 2023 6:55 pm

    "Armenian occupied Nagorno-Karabakh" what a loaded propaganda phrase. I guess we had Tutsi occupied portions of Rwanda and Hutu occupied portions of Burundi.
    Anyone who labels maps this way is either a retard or malicious. The problem with colonial borders (which most of them are) is that they deny the indigenous ethnic
    distribution and create genocidal wars in their wake.

    The bloodshed in Ukraine is an example of BS borders and their effect.

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    Post  Dr.Snufflebug Mon Sep 11, 2023 7:17 pm

    kvs wrote:"Armenian occupied Nagorno-Karabakh" what a loaded propaganda phrase.   I guess we had Tutsi occupied portions of Rwanda and Hutu occupied portions of Burundi.
    Anyone who labels maps this way is either a retard or malicious.   The problem with colonial borders (which most of them are) is that they deny the indigenous ethnic
    distribution and create genocidal wars in their wake.

    The bloodshed in Ukraine is an example of BS borders and their effect.


    Indeed. Soviet border drawing came in a couple of flavors, often a combination:

    Overall SSR (and SFSR re Russia) mostly based on geography and history
    Ethnical regions receiving distinct borders to keep them a wee bit more content, given limited autonomy etc (this includes subregions, like ASSRs within SSRs).
    Practical borders changes (eg made sense from a purely practical POV to hook Crimean ASSR up with UkSSR, due to train lines, power lines and other infrastructure, helped the administrative apparatus, some of the seemingly nonsensical broken jigsaw borders in Central Asia are results of that too.
    Suppression of too much ethnic nationalism, Karabakh is a bit like this, this Armenian region being made part of the AzSSR helped "dilute" Azeri majority of the republic.

    Abkhazia and South Ossetia were a bit of all too.

    The huge problem arose when the "main" SSR borders were made sovereign and all these other considerations immediately ignored. I'd wager it's the main cause of all post-Soviet conflicts, including in UA now. The CIS project to my knowledge was supposed to mitigate this and over time bridge things, but the west stepped in immediately and started stirring stuff up (by for some reason insisting that SSR borders are infallible, the irony is palpable, mind you that was the "evil empire" a decade earlier). Only reason for that was that they knew the trouble it would cause and what a headache it would be for Russia.

    Bit disjointed post, will clean it up later.


    Last edited by Dr.Snufflebug on Mon Sep 11, 2023 10:35 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Sep 11, 2023 7:38 pm

    The Soviet Union was full of this sort of thing, transferring one people's lands into the hands of another people. Armenian land to Azerbaijan, Abkhazia made part of Georgia, Kazakh autonomy made into an Uzbek autonomy, Tuvan and Buryat lands made part of Russian oblasts, Ingush lands transfered to North Ossetia, Chechen lands to Dagestan, Kalmyk territory transferred to Astrakhan oblast. Slavic settled territory to Moldova. And of course Russian territory to the Ukraine.

    Different reasons for it. Sometimes it wasn't possible to please everyone and so the decision had to piss off someone. Sometimes to bind the loyalty of a local 'communist' elite (with a mysteriously nationalist bent) closer to Moscow. Sometimes to weaken national elites or as punishment or to even make some sort of new 'hybrid' identity or whatever.
    Either way it was mostly about control. And it has proven to be a terrible idea in the half of these places that have since the collapse of the USSR erupted into war.

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Tue Sep 12, 2023 5:34 pm

    kvs wrote:"Armenian occupied Nagorno-Karabakh" what a loaded propaganda phrase.   I guess we had Tutsi occupied portions of Rwanda and Hutu occupied portions of Burundi.
    Anyone who labels maps this way is either a retard or malicious.   The problem with colonial borders (which most of them are) is that they deny the indigenous ethnic
    distribution and create genocidal wars in their wake.

    The bloodshed in Ukraine is an example of BS borders and their effect.


    Lol Russian have said that land belongs to Azeri in their eyes, Armenia didn't even deploy its forces to fight for it.

    Your boot lickers are hilarious. Actually I cannot call you a boot licker here because The Russians say you are wrong and ARMENIA never EVER EVER OFFCIALLY CLAIMED THE LAND WAS PART OF ARMENIA.

    If you support land going back "historical" claims, well Russia owes a few countries a piece of its territory.

    Fact is different people have owned lands at different points of history,
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    Post  ALAMO Tue Sep 12, 2023 5:38 pm

    What is even more interesting, the Iranian position is the same: NK is Azeri land.
    No idea, honestly, if the regimes of the SU considered this kind of ethincal mix to be an effective tool for keeping everyone's leash short, but end effect will backfire for long.
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    Post  nomadski Tue Sep 12, 2023 5:59 pm

    The Iranians have a large Azeri population , and the name of this damned place is " Black Forest ,  " in Turkish and Persian root words . But population is Armenian . One way to satisfy all sides is by territorial swap or exchange . By swapping NK for Nakichevan . This gives Azeris and Turks a bone to chew on , and also stops Armenians from yelping about their lost territory . Making both R.Azer and Armenia , have contiguous land mass , and more easily defended . Also a more secure route for North- South trade through Armenia to Russia and Iran . Should Baku play silly hugger games ! QED .
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    Post  higurashihougi Tue Sep 12, 2023 6:12 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Lol Russian have said that land belongs to Azeri in their eyes, Armenia didn't even deploy its forces to fight for it.

    Your boot lickers are hilarious. Actually I cannot call you a boot licker here because The Russians say you are wrong and ARMENIA never EVER EVER OFFCIALLY CLAIMED THE LAND WAS PART OF ARMENIA.

    If you support land going back "historical" claims, well Russia owes a few countries a piece of its territory.

    Fact is different people have owned lands at different points of history,

    Okay, Russian have said that land belongs to Azeri, and so ?

    Russia can have her own opinions, Armenian politicians can be as coward as they are. But the members of this forum are adult people with independent mind, most of the times they take the side of Russia but that does not mean they have obligation to agree with all the opinions of Russia or they are not allowed to have their own ideas.

    I support struggle of Artsakh people against Azeri offensives, and I sincerely apologize to any Azeri members of the forum about my opinion but it is not like I will change it.

    Got a problem with that ?

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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Tue Sep 12, 2023 7:25 pm

    It is the hypocrisy I am pointing out, To argue they have any right to that land due that some old historical claim which is subjective because other people where they before thek is moronic.

    If you wish to apply that standard, Russia must give Sevas back to China, must give the kirls back the Japan and must surrender Kalin to Germany, Crimea to Greece or Turkey etc, list goes on

    Plus a few other parts of its territory would become forfeit.

    So let me ask you? Do you support Russia doing these things?. Understand the historical claim argument works both ways not one way. You cannot claim "Well this land belonges to my guys historical, so it's our land"

    Then go "I don't support x giving land back to z for the same exact reason I demanded we get this land"

    It's not even like Azeri gave the land to them and decided it wanted it back, The leaders of the SU forced that choice onto them.

    They never agreed with it, so sorry it's Azeri land
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    Post  higurashihougi Tue Sep 12, 2023 7:55 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:It is the hypocrisy I am pointing out, To argue they have any right to that land due that some old historical claim which is subjective because other people where they before thek is moronic.

    If you wish to apply that standard, Russia must give Sevas back to China, must give the kirls back the Japan and must surrender Kalin to Germany.

    Plus a few other parts of its territory would become forfeit.

    So let me ask you? Do you support Russia doing these things?. Understand the historical claim argument works both ways not one way.

    It's not even like Azeri gave the land to them and decided it wanted it back, The leaders of the SU forced that choice onto them.

    They never agreed with it, so sorry it's Azeri land.

    Then why don't Azeri approve the Artsakh independence from them when the USSR is no more to enforce any choice onto them and it is clear that Artsakh does not consider them as Azeri ?

    Soviet enforcement cannot be used to whitewash the responsibility of Azeri ruling class of enforcing their rule against the will of Artsakh people.

    It is not about some sort of old historical claim but tt is that Artsakh don't want to be a part of Azerbaijan.

    Back then Nakhchivan also made it clear that it is not a part of Armenia by a referendum and the process went smoothly. Therefore, Artsakh people have every rights to raise the question why their wish meet with such brutality.
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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Sat Sep 16, 2023 12:33 am

    @Sprinter99800
    Armenian sources: Iran continues to transfer a huge amount of heavy armored vehicles, artillery, air defense systems to the northwest of the country (Sionik border).
    https://twitter.com/Sprinter99800/status/1702748736261161001

    @IranObserver0
    If Azerbaijan wants to carry out a military operation, Iran is able to counter that military operation within 24 hours with 10 times the firepower.
    Therefore, the Aliyev regime should not kill Azerbaijani soldiers needlessly — Iran's Parliamentary National Security Commission Member
    https://twitter.com/IranObserver0/status/1702738413051412867

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    Post  higurashihougi Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:14 am

    Debates amongst Vietnamese netizens (all are 100% pro-Russia) about whether Armenia is a traitor or not.

    Azerbaijan vs Armenia [Nagorno-Karabakh conflict] - Page 34 Armeni10

    Azerbaijan vs Armenia [Nagorno-Karabakh conflict] - Page 34 Armeni11
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Sep 17, 2023 10:46 am

    The Armenian Prime Minister is a graduate of the Soros school of statecraft who has a direct line to Western intelligence, and gets constant directives from them on what to do at every step and how to manipulate the situation. Pashinyan does not hang up the phone to them. Prior to the CIA color revolution that got him into power, he had no experience whatsoever in government, nor he had he a career as a diplomat or as the head of some political party. He was a pure Navalny type figure, the same blogger/'opposition journalist' background. How could he himself possibly navigate the complex geopolitics of the region and try to leverage this alliance against that alliance or whatever? Of course he can't, his only task is to follow the orders of people on the other side of the Atlantic who are brighter than him but are also more concerned with America's success than Armenia's.

    He's not following Armenian national interests and his support in the country consists only of the people he has managed to trick into believing that he does, again with the assistance of the same Western spindoctors and techniques - or who are simply sell-outs like he himself. Which is about half the Armenian population still if not more.

    It's impossible to consider Armenia the country as a 'traitor'. A traitor to what, besides? To a military alliance with Russia and other ex-Soviet states which is a joke anyway?
    The Armenians have elected a traitor to their highest office who is betraying them and will betray them further. And Armenia will suffer for it. It's sad.

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    Post  higurashihougi Sun Sep 17, 2023 2:30 pm

    I thought that Pashinyan gained power is because of an internal struggle between big corporations and small enterprises in Armenia ?  Question  Question  Idea

    It is said that Pashinyan managed to attract the favour of small and middle size businessmen who are upset with the monopoly of big oligarchs associated with Serzh Sargsyan, let to the colour revolution back then.
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    Azerbaijan vs Armenia [Nagorno-Karabakh conflict] - Page 34 Empty Re: Azerbaijan vs Armenia [Nagorno-Karabakh conflict]

    Post  flamming_python Sun Sep 17, 2023 3:40 pm

    higurashihougi wrote:I thought that Pashinyan gained power is because of an internal struggle between big corporations and small enterprises in Armenia ?  Question  Question  Idea

    It is said that Pashinyan managed to attract the favour of small and middle size businessmen who are upset with the monopoly of big oligarchs associated with Serzh Sargsyan, let to the colour revolution back then.

    Pashinyan gained power thanks to the standard color revolution techniques of blaming the old guard for 'corruption' and of being a bunch of Soviet communist-party fossils while portraying yourself and your party as young, dynamic, baseball-cap wearing and selfless. It's all image and Hollywood.

    And sure, behind the scenes the petite bourgeois was behind him, the newly emerged magnates of the economic sectors dependent on orders from the West such as the IT industry, tourism, the Kardashians and whatever the hell else; while the established industries and oligarchs in Armenia were tightly connected to Moscow. None of it would have mattered though if Pashinyan didn't manage to mobilize a big enough mob to Yerevan sq. which is actually how all the color revolutions have succeeded so far - by force, or by the threat of the use of force and lustration against the incumbent political elites, underwritten by the sanctions weapons wielded by their EU and US backers against anyone giving problems to their appointed avatar.
    And that's all it takes. You don't even need to gain most of the votes, just enough to dispute the result and gather the crowd with your allegations of election fraud supported by the Western media apparatus.

    GarryB and kvs like this post


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