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    Azerbaijan vs Armenia [Nagorno-Karabakh conflict]

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Sun Oct 04, 2020 11:39 am

    lyle6 wrote:
    And Putin said there were no Russian boots on the ground in Crimea. We all knew that wasn't the case. Take the statement with its corresponding grain of salt - you're not the target audience.


    Those Su-30SMs were a bad choice for Armenia. Tied up way too many resources in an asset that has seen little use if at all due to have valuable it is to risk. The sad thing is it isn't that uncommon for many developing countries to just procure a handful of aircraft and call it a day.

    Putin did not say that, there were 10k+ in Crimea perfectly legally. I think you are confusing Crimea with Donbass.

    I read somewhere that the Armenians cannot use their Su-30SMs or Iskanders without Russian agreement. True or not they are big and limited assets.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun Oct 04, 2020 11:40 am

    Those Su-30SMs were a bad choice for Armenia. Tied up way too many resources in an asset that has seen little use if at all due to have valuable it is to risk. The sad thing is it isn't that uncommon for many developing countries to just procure a handful of aircraft and call it a day.

    Against azeri they are very good but for that matter they could have ordered 10 mig-29SMT for that price.

    What they really need is pantsir.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:02 pm

    Legality ?  Sure, if all sides acted legally. Did NAZTO act legally in region? Legally in Syria or Iraq or Afghanistan or  Azerbaijan ?  A non - NAZTO member?  Did. NAZTO act legally by incubating terrorists in the region?  Illegal combatants?  Did NAZTO avoid targeting civilians  and Infrastducture?  Did NAZTO respect the flag of truth to allow peace to be made? Did NAZTO not start illegal wars? Did NAZTO not stage false flags......

    So a minor infringement  by us, to cross a border to stop war, is a cardinal sin?  Or maybe our national interests are subject to minority economic interests? Those who worry continuously about the price of the Dollar?  And foreign investments?  I forgot, the Liberals live in the Bahamas..........


    First they came for the Communists
    And I did not speak out
    Because I was not a Communist

    Then they came for the Socialists
    And I did not speak out
    Because I was not a Socialist

    Then they came for the trade unionists
    And I did not speak out
    Because I was not a trade unionist

    Then they came for the Jews
    And I did not speak out
    Because I was not a Jew

    Then they came for me
    And there was no one left
    To speak out for me

    No an overt move is needed. A public lynching of NAZTO and those who support it. A flag for people to see and follow. National interests must come first.
    medo
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    Post  medo on Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:13 pm

    Armenian wrote:While I personally don't like Nikol Pashinyan, narrative that he is a guy of EU is totally wrong. During the last two years he continued to keep balanced relations with both blocks. Armenia with a small fragile economy needs support from EU. It's nothing new.

    That being said Armenia continued acting according to the Russia interests. We took the whole Ukraine against us because we supported Russia, now they are acting with Azeris. We have been the first and only country aside Russia which sent it's military to Syria, taking the whole West against us. Again.

    Armenian people loves and respects Russia but if in a time of need Russia is going to sacrifice Armenia to Turkic/Jihadi block just because they want to have a puppet leader, you can definitely expect very anti Russia population in near future. We are proud people, we don't ask Russia to come and fight for us.

    But not even making a statement after Armenia itself is attacked?

    I just wanted to share this as someone who lives in Armenia. The idea of punishing Nikol will drive Armenians from Russia causing Russia to lose Armenia after Ukraine and Georgia.

    It's still not late, here in Armenia people still believe in Russia.

    This is more complex as it seems. After all, Armenia itself also didn't send its army in Artzakh and is still keeping it in reserve. Russia send help to Armenia, but it went through Iran, because Georgia closed its air space for help to Armenia and open it for transportation of weapons and terrorists in Azerbaijan. Russia need proper reason for intervention. In South Ossethia it was georgian attack on Russian peacekeepers.

    Putin is all the time in contact with Pashinyan and didn't talk with Alliev after the start of war.

    Now, Artzakh, which have population of 300.000 people fight for a whole week against Turkey and Azerbaijan, who together have population of 90 million people. This is only possible with excellent planning and preparations. Before this war started, there was a big military exercise Kaukasus-2020 in Russia and also in Armenia, where Russian and Armenian army trained together. For sure they go through those scenarios to prepare themselves. Russia is quiet, becase they keep their plans secret. When Russia is quiet, something will happen. Russia was quiet, before they come to rescue Crimea. Russia was quiet before they come to rescue South Ossethia,... Talk is cheap, but being quiet means something.

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python on Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:51 pm

    Armenian wrote:While I personally don't like Nikol Pashinyan, narrative that he is a guy of EU is totally wrong. During the last two years he continued to keep balanced relations with both blocks. Armenia with a small fragile economy needs support from EU. It's nothing new.

    That being said Armenia continued acting according to the Russia interests. We took the whole Ukraine against us because we supported Russia, now they are acting with Azeris. We have been the first and only country aside Russia which sent it's military to Syria, taking the whole West against us. Again.

    Armenian people loves and respects Russia but if in a time of need Russia is going to sacrifice Armenia to Turkic/Jihadi block just because they want to have a puppet leader, you can definitely expect very anti Russia population in near future. We are proud people, we don't ask Russia to come and fight for us.

    But not even making a statement after Armenia itself is attacked?

    I just wanted to share this as someone who lives in Armenia. The idea of punishing Nikol will drive Armenians from Russia causing Russia to lose Armenia after Ukraine and Georgia.

    It's still not late, here in Armenia people still believe in Russia.

    I doubt there's going to be any sort of sacrifice to NATO Turkey and its Jihadists. Everyone who's anyone understands what's at stake even though no-one says it openly.
    And people also understand that having Turkey, which commited a genocide against Armenians a century ago, now fight Azerbaijan's war for it using flying killer robots and Syrian terrorists is not acceptable either.
    The issue of Pashinyan is a tactical one, Moscow is not going to sacrifice the Armenian people because of it, just try and get leverage over him.

    Officially, Russia has good relations with Azerbaijan. And they've done much better PR work in Russia than Armenians have, with their oil money. Azeri oligarchs are tightly mixed in with Russian ones, Aliyev's daughter lives in Moscow and she and the whole clan are members of high society. In fact all of the Azeri upper class and plenty of its middle class maintain links with Russian society and own property there. Plenty of prominent Azeris in the Russian business, cultural, etc... spheres.
    You have Armenians as well in politics and the media, but they themselves don't seem to be that tied to Armenia or any of its ruling families; like Simonyan, who even took sides against Armenia not long ago for the revolution there.
    The Azeri intelligencia have always prized the Russian language, connections with Russia and have used it to put across their point of view, in the Caucasus and the rest of Russia.

    Azeri propaganda is everywhere, about Armenia turning pro-West, about Armenians occupying Sochi and Krasnodar Krai, soon declaring northern Armenia there. They're helped by various panturks and assorted nationalists. Already in Baskhiria which has undergone serious protests over the last several months - there have been attempts at provocations against Armenians, the ruling head of the republic is fast becoming unpopular, and his wife is Armenian which is increasingly being used as a propaganda point. Nevertheless I think the situation there is under control, nationalist sentiment is there but it's tempered by internationalism and the desire of the Bashkirs to gain support from the rest of Russia for their uprising.

    As a result the attitude of the average Russian who knows nothing about the situation and conflict is either - just make peace somehow and stop the killing, or fk it let them all vacate Moscow from both sides and fight down there.

    But nevertheless Russia is going to have to step in more openly. One can assume that Armenians are making full use of Russian intel, radar, satellite coverage that they get as a benefit of CSTO membership.
    In the preceding months there were as many joint military exercises between Russia and Armenia as there were between Turkey and Azerbaijan. So this tells you all you need to know about the true alliance structure.
    Many of the Russian border guards and personnel of the military base in Armenia are ethnic Armenians. Who knows they might be going on vacation already.
    But more needs to be done; the level of supply of Turkey and Israel to Azerbaijan is upsetting the balance and needs to be countered, at a minimum. Even if Russia also needs to maintain ties with and influence over Azerbaijan, to prevent them falling under the Turks completely. Already one of the Azeri generals has been removed at Turkish insistence, over having too many ties to Moscow.
    Hence why no public statements of Moscow against Azerbaijan.
    The aim should be a ceasefire then some sort of peace settlement; but not one that would in any way leave the Armenian populated districts of NKR at the behest of Baku; they have to be linked to Armenia proper. Everything else can and should be negotiable I think.
    I'm no expert but I don't think Armenia has a serious claim to the territory in between for example, the former district of Red Kurdistan, from where all the Kurds and Azeris were expelled in the 90s, even if that land was Armenian at some point in history. It's just held by Armenia now mainly for reasons of defense.

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:38 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Many of the Russian border guards and personnel of the military base in Armenia are ethnic Armenians. Who knows they might be going on vacation already.

    A gem in your post for those of us who have been around a while. The memories of MP.net refreshed. Laughing
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:35 pm

    @ Medo

    ".... Talk is cheap, but being quiet means something....."

    Disagree. Being quiet is cheap. Talk ( and action) means something. Reminds me of situation in Iran. With defeatist liberals in power. Keeping secrets from the people, about uncle scumbags attacks . So they can sell national interests, in favour of getting favourable trading terms. Or is it, in the case of Iranians, that they are playing with their balls?  Watching  persepolis Football . Reminds me of another Iranian ( a King), who was also busy playing with his balls ( playing polo), while a theif  stole Afghanistan away from Persia. Now they play with their balls, when caucases burns. Like Nero.

    @ python

    "...... And people also understand that having Turkey, which commited a genocide against Armenians a century ago, now fight Azerbaijan's war for it using flying killer robots and Syrian terrorists is not acceptable either......."

    But you said people don't understand. They are not informed. Only the elite understand. And they shut up about it. Information to them, is like money. They will privitise it. But agree, that there is a cultural problem with the Turks. The Armenians during this war, were able to defeat Azeri forces to get to karabag. But they stopped there. They could have advanced to take more territory. If they wanted territory alone. But they wanted security. Unfortunately, the Azeri territories were in the way. This is very different to Azeri position now. Akin to genocide. Extermination of ALL Armenians from territories. No doubt under tutelage from Turk fascistic culture.

    "........ The aim should be a ceasefire then some sort of peace settlement; but not one that would in any way leave the Armenian populated districts of NKR at the behest of Baku; they have to be linked to Armenia proper. Everything else can and should be negotiable I think. I'm no expert but I don't think Armenia has a serious claim to the territory in between for example, the former district of Red Kurdistan, from where all the Kurds and Azeris were expelled in the 90s, even if that land was Armenian at some point in history. It's just held by Armenia now mainly for reasons of defense..... "

    Agree with nice plans. But political forces on the ground in Azer, and also Armenia, not inclined to rationality. Only blind hatred. Political opportunism and subservience to NAZTO.  Thirty years and no solution. This must be imposed externally. Or their chickens will come to roost, in our homes.

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    AbdulhamidtheSecond

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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond on Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:06 pm

    https://twitter.com/azpresident/status/1312734108775260163?s=20

    Southern flank of armenian forces in NK seems to be collapsed as Jabrayil town south to Xankendi (Stepanakert) is liberated by Azerbaijan Army.



    Armenian
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    Post  Armenian on Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:19 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:https://twitter.com/azpresident/status/1312734108775260163?s=20

    Southern flank of armenian forces in NK seems to be collapsed as Jabrayil town south to Xankendi (Stepanakert) is liberated by Azerbaijan Army.


    Share a video please, if you can. My friend is right now in Jabrayil. There wasn't even a push from Azeri side.

    I don't think you guys can win the war by taking villages on Twitter.

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    AbdulhamidtheSecond

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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond on Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:27 pm

    If your friend is already on there, may send photos to us, proving it is up to date Smile

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    Post  PapaDragon on Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:34 pm

    nomadski wrote:....What is needed, is active peacemaking. Overcoming political inertia. This whole problem can be solved quickly. Russia striking from North. Iran from South. Joining in the middle. Along present line of contact. Separating combatants. Not occupying land. Iran putting blockade against armaments in Caspian against the Usrael offensive heavy weapons, Russia in Black Sea. Alternative is NAZTO occupation of Caucases. Act now.

    This nonsense makes Tom Clancy sound coherent

    And seriously, you really think Iran would stick it's neck out for Nagorno Karabah?

    As always issue here for you folks is Israel and arms trade is shoddy reason to get pissed off about




    Armenian wrote:...But not even making a statement after Armenia itself is attacked?

    Armenia itself did nothing about either

    It got attacked but it didn't respond in kind, nothing in Azerbaijan was hit in retaliation, how is Russia supposed to interpret that?

    Legally speaking (and according to even Armenia itself) this conflict is still strictly INTERNAL Azeri issue

    Armenia isn't even sending it's military in Nagorno Karabah just some volunteers (who by definition are going on their own accord and aren't being sent anywhere by anyone)

    This all looks like Armenia still wants to play by EU rules and to check all the boxes that Brussels insists on (international law and all that nonsense) and to leave all the rule breaking, dirty work and ensuing bad rep to Russia

    Nobody would go with that

    Until Armenia finally commits, gets into the fight and starts striking back why should anything change?





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    Post  Armenian on Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:36 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:If your friend is already on there, may send photos to us, proving it is up to date Smile


    Well, it's your claim. Means that it needs to be proved by your side.

    PS. Sorry guys, I don't want to turn the thread into Azeri-Armenian shitshow here.
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:44 pm

    Armenia has already seen how Russia sold northern Syria to Turkey for S-400 deal. This is why Armenia will try to join NATO for protection, because they see Russia as unreliable as a security partner. Having said that, it is very likely, if Russia does not help Armenia considering there has been Azeri attacks on Armenia proper, Armenia will join NATO. Unlike Georgia, Armenia has no disputed territory considering Armenia does not recognize NK, there is nothing that can stop Armenia from joining NATO. Once the conflict is over, both Armenia and Azerbaijan will join NATO at the same time for peace just like Greece and Turkey both joined NATO at the same time for peace.
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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond on Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:48 pm

    It is not my claim, it is Azerbaijan's president's claim.

    On the other hand your friend being there is solely your claim and it seems either your friend could not leave before Azerbaijan army came or left already, so any photos he could send do not provide any evidence that it is taken as of now.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:54 pm


    Rob Lee
    @RALee85
    En réponse à
    @RALee85
    The Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hobhannisyan claimed that Azerbaijan was firing both Smerch and Polonez MLRS systems on Stepanakert. Ominously, he said "I call on the people of Azerbaijan to leave cities near military sites as soon as possible to avoid possible losses." 581/
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:58 pm

    nomadski wrote:Legally speaking (and according to even Armenia itself) this conflict is still strictly INTERNAL Azeri issue

    People matter more than a piece of paper. Legally speaking, Kosovo is Serbian land, Taiwan is Chinese land. It does not give them the right to slaughter the people in Kosovo and Taiwan the way Azeris do in NK.

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    Armenian
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    Post  Armenian on Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:05 pm

    Huge Armenian counter attack in Matagis,
    https://youtu.be/fPw1rq9vdps

    Azeri soldiers trying to escape from the ATGM shots. Remainder me of Syria, ufortunately.
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:11 pm

    killing Azeri T-72 tanks using anti tank weaponry

    https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1312749659069263872

    https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1312749659069263872


    Last edited by Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:11 pm

    2 Azeri T-90S and 1 Azeri BTR-82A captured by Armenia after ambush

    https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1312054287225282561

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    Tai Hai Chen

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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:19 pm

    captured Azeri T-90S and BTR-82A recently bought from Russia

    https://twitter.com/lostarmour/status/1312720065373106176
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:21 pm

    Tai Hai Chen wrote:Unlike Georgia, Armenia has no disputed territory considering Armenia does not recognize NK, there is nothing that can stop Armenia from joining NATO. ..
    she didn't recognize it since it's not independent of Armenia itself- w/o her support, the NK wouldn't have lasted 30 years. In other words, NK is part of Armenia, not independent or part or de-facto part of Azerbaijan. In the 18th century Georgia had to join Russia to save itself from Turkey & Persia; w/o Russia/USSR, there would be no "independent" Armenia today.
    Now the plan of Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia developed by the Turks is completely clear. Two strike groups of the Azerbaijani army, previously concentrated under the leadership of Turkish military advisers, with the support of hundreds of terrorists from Syria, struck the north and south of Karabakh on September 27. The task is to surround Karabakh from the north and south, cut it off from Armenia and carry out ethnic cleansing there, killing or expelling the Armenian population. The main striking force of the Azerbaijanis is the Syrian Islamists, Turkish drones and Turkish F-16 fighters. Although the Turkish-Azerbaijani aggression has so far drowned, the Armenians unfortunately suffered heavy losses, especially in artillery and tanks. The losses of Azerbaijanis are greater, but the Turks do not regret Azerbaijani lives. Why Erdogan provoked an attack by a MGIMO graduate, and now his puppet Aliyev in Karabakh? First, Erdogan fought against us in Syria and Libya with the hands of the Islamists there. But Karabakh, as the front closest to Russia, he always kept in reserve (let me remind you that Armenia is Russia's ally under the 1997 treaty, there is a Russian military base there). Remember when there was the last outbreak of the conflict in Karabakh? In April 2016, when, in response to our plane shot down by Erdogan, we finally introduced sanctions against Turkey. Erdogan already then took revenge on Russia in Karabakh with the hands of Aliyev. And now Putin's "great friend" Erdogan decided to take advantage of the fact that Putin's "friend" was under fire from the West in Belarus and in the Navalny case. And he started the war, thinking that Russia will chicken out and wipe out. Thus, the Armenians are now fighting for Russia against Erdogan. They suffer heavy losses from the Turks. In these conditions, Russia should, as France suggests, impose sanctions against Turkey. If Aliyev does not calm down and does not cease fire, then sanctions should be introduced against this presumptuous student of Erdogan. For example, the visa regime. If Armenia asks, it should be supplied with weapons, especially air defense systems to fight against Turkish attack drones. The Russians must remember that they will defeat the Armenians and come to our North Caucasus! Have the two Chechen wars already been forgotten? When were the militants treated and rested in "friendly Turkey? Therefore, helping Armenia NOW means the absence of war on our territory TOMORROW!" especially air defense systems to combat Turkish attack drones. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdq14rn4rGY
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:22 pm

    Armenia ambushed Azeri invaders. Warning graphic.

    https://twitter.com/ArmeniaMODTeam/status/1312757118991294470

    https://twitter.com/lostarmour/status/1312740332430393344
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:24 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    Tai Hai Chen wrote:Unlike Georgia, Armenia has no disputed territory considering Armenia does not recognize NK, there is nothing that can stop Armenia from joining NATO. ..
    she didn't recognize it since it's not independent of Armenia itself- w/o her support, the NK wouldn't have lasted 30 years. In other words, NK is part of Armenia, not independent or part or de-facto part of Azerbaijan. In the 18th century Georgia had to join Russia to save itself from Turkey & Persia; w/o Russia/USSR, there would be no "independent" Armenia today.
    Now the plan of Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia developed by the Turks is completely clear. Two strike groups of the Azerbaijani army, previously concentrated under the leadership of Turkish military advisers, with the support of hundreds of terrorists from Syria, struck the north and south of Karabakh on September 27. The task is to surround Karabakh from the north and south, cut it off from Armenia and carry out ethnic cleansing there, killing or expelling the Armenian population. The main striking force of the Azerbaijanis is the Syrian Islamists, Turkish drones and Turkish F-16 fighters. Although the Turkish-Azerbaijani aggression has so far drowned, the Armenians unfortunately suffered heavy losses, especially in artillery and tanks. The losses of Azerbaijanis are greater, but the Turks do not regret Azerbaijani lives. Why Erdogan provoked an attack by a MGIMO graduate, and now his puppet Aliyev in Karabakh? First, Erdogan fought against us in Syria and Libya with the hands of the Islamists there. But Karabakh, as the front closest to Russia, he always kept in reserve (let me remind you that Armenia is Russia's ally under the 1997 treaty, there is a Russian military base there). Remember when there was the last outbreak of the conflict in Karabakh? In April 2016, when, in response to our plane shot down by Erdogan, we finally introduced sanctions against Turkey. Erdogan already then took revenge on Russia in Karabakh with the hands of Aliyev. And now Putin's "great friend" Erdogan decided to take advantage of the fact that Putin's "friend" was under fire from the West in Belarus and in the Navalny case. And he started the war, thinking that Russia will chicken out and wipe out. Thus, the Armenians are now fighting for Russia against Erdogan. They suffer heavy losses from the Turks. In these conditions, Russia should, as France suggests, impose sanctions against Turkey. If Aliyev does not calm down and does not cease fire, then sanctions should be introduced against this presumptuous student of Erdogan. For example, the visa regime. If Armenia asks, it should be supplied with weapons, especially air defense systems to fight against Turkish attack drones. The Russians must remember that they will defeat the Armenians and come to our North Caucasus! Have the two Chechen wars already been forgotten? When were the militants treated and rested in "friendly Turkey? Therefore, helping Armenia NOW means the absence of war on our territory TOMORROW!" especially air defense systems to combat Turkish attack drones. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdq14rn4rGY

    Armenia is being smart. By not recognizing NK officially but recognizing NK de facto, Armenia can join NATO if Armenia sees Russia as unreliable for security. Having seen Russia sold northern Syria to Turkey for S-400 deal, Armenia has come to the conclusion Russia is unreliable for security. This is why Armenia will join NATO.
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    Tai Hai Chen

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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:30 pm

    Armenians beating Azeri invaders

    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:30 pm

    Hold ur breath. Saakashvili lost his job & is now wanted by the authorities in Tbilisi; the same fate may await Pashinyan in Erevan.
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wB2m0Ci0skw

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