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    Azerbaijan vs Armenia [Nagorno-Karabakh conflict]

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:35 am

    Also shout out to the peeps who during the Artsakh 2020 War were beyond adamant that Azerbaijan attacking Armenia proper would never ever happen because powerful Russia blablabla..

    Yeah, because power is being a bully like the US... pick your side and obliterate the other side and that other side is always bad until they are useful.

    Clear you are the one that doesn't get it.

    BTW the US is very keen to destroy any org or construction they are not part of and have no control over... fragile little princesses.

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    sundoesntrise


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    Post  sundoesntrise Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:27 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    Also shout out to the peeps who during the Artsakh 2020 War were beyond adamant that Azerbaijan attacking Armenia proper would never ever happen because powerful Russia blablabla..

    Yeah, because power is being a bully like the US... pick your side and obliterate the other side and that other side is always bad until they are useful.

    Clear you are the one that doesn't get it.

    BTW the US is very keen to destroy any org or construction they are not part of and have no control over... fragile little princesses.

    Are you still at the whining 'it's all so unfair' stage?

    At some point you gotta move beyond your (misplaced) sense of moral superiority and others' lack of adhering to it.

    Either you are willing to play the game and stand the heat or you get out of the kitchen.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:46 pm

    sundoesntrise wrote:
    TMA1 wrote:Incoherent rambling


    It is quite obvious that the Russian advance-in-reverse is leading to some dented egos and exploding heads. From ascending global power to crumbling sphere of influence/ junior partnership with the Chinese in less than 7 months.

    Don't be mad. You ain't even Russian, and have probably never been there nor speak the language. A deranged Trumpista turned Putinista, and 4channer to boot. The Trifecta of the Dissident Right's Western retardedness.

    Good that you've come clean about your complete lack of understanding of the geopolitical realities in this world. As they say, the first step towards improvement is recognizing that you were wrong (and lied to) in the first place. Now extrapolate those insights onto the present/ future and keep your breather shut when the adults are speaking - with the add on that your continuous low effort, low quality provocations (looking to get people banned/suspended?) have been noted. Annoying as the membership here is, there are actually some high quality posters who have a decent understanding of things. You ain't part of that club.

    As for the rest of your incoherent mumbo-jumbo, stop projecting your own insecurities on me. Take a good hard look in the mirror and try not to burst out in laughter doing it.

    Actually this past 6 months has brought an economic improvement to Russia.
    What junior partnership with the Chinese? The same Chinese who chickened out on Taiwan? Not that I blame them for averting conflict; but they're not leading Russia around by the nose.
    Russia's main adversaries meanwhile, the EU and to a lesser extent the US are in trouble economically. Their plans for inciting regime change in Russia did not work. While the rest of the world is mostly busy distancing themselves from that mad crew.
    And their man Pashinyan and his petty schemes in Yerevan is hardly much of a consolation prize for Washington
    Neither the Erdo and Aliev tandem. Yes Russia is invested completely into the Ukraine and does not have the leverage to bring to bear against anyone else at the moment as it needs their support instead.. the West BTW is in the same position. But this is temporary. As soon as the current crisis between the bigger players passes Erdogan and Aliev will be shown where they belong by those same bigger players, although not before having won some dividends of their own in the meantime.

    Your thesis here is nothing but a reflection of your own inner doomerism and Chicken little complex. More defeatist porn to scratch that itch. Give it a break.

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    sundoesntrise


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    Post  sundoesntrise Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:20 pm

    flamming_python wrote:

    Actually this past 6 months has brought an economic improvement to Russia.
    What junior partnership with the Chinese? The same Chinese who chickened out on Taiwan? Not that I blame them for averting conflict; but they're not leading Russia around by the nose.
    Russia's main adversaries meanwhile, the EU and to a lesser extent the US are in trouble economically. Their plans for inciting regime change in Russia did not work. While the rest of the world is mostly busy distancing themselves from that mad crew.
    And their man Pashinyan and his petty schemes in Yerevan is hardly much of a consolation prize for Washington
    Neither the Erdo and Aliev tandem. Yes Russia is invested completely into the Ukraine and does not have the leverage to bring to bear against anyone else at the moment as it needs their support instead.. the West BTW is in the same position. But this is temporary. As soon as the current crisis between the bigger players passes Erdogan and Aliev will be shown where they belong by those same bigger players, although not before having won some dividends of their own in the meantime.

    Your thesis here is nothing but a reflection of your own inner doomerism and Chicken little complex. More defeatist porn to scratch that itch. Give it a break.

    That's right Comrade FP. An unshaken belief in Victory is the foundation on which all victories - whether they be political or military in nature, are based. I can see that you got your (((commie))) literature down to a T.

    Wish I could take a jab at you and say that you are trolling, but I know that you are not. I can simply imagine the dead eyes and robotic voice parroting the state propaganda.

    As for China, Russia and China are “allies” by necessity, not choice. They are natural and historical enemies and they will take every opportunity they can get to increase their influence at the expense of the other.

    Hence the Chinese are very prudent in their support - still not willing to break the sanctions and provide Russia with high tech, weapons and financial support. Instead they are taking advantage of the situation by securing beneficial gas deals (50 percent off), designing infrastructural corridors through Central Asia that deliberately cut out Russia whilst providing mealy mouth statements in public. Is it too farfetched to think that Xi JinPing deliberately ordered Putin to delay the invasion until after the Olympics - knowing full well that the Russians` effort would be hampered by the muddy terrain and daily US weapon transports in the run up?

    The created perception of international support for Russia's action is simply not true. Now that Russia has finally escalated we will see how many countries and states are interested in distancing themselves from 'that mad crew' and recognizing the newly Russian created reality. I personally predict it will be North Korea, Syria, Belarus, Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela, and maybe Eritrea and Iran. Not exactly a club of winners there

    Here's one of Putin's BRICS buddies bytheway, Bolsonaro. Listen very carefully to what he is saying. I think you might recognize the slogan at around 0.17

    https://t.me/visegradtv/10122
    caveat emptor
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    Post  caveat emptor Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:34 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Actually this past 6 months has brought an economic improvement to Russia.
    Dude,seriously?!
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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:41 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    Actually this past 6 months has brought an economic improvement to Russia.
    Dude,seriously?!

    But of course.
    Take a look at RUB conversion rates.
    The reference rates.
    Mortgage rates.
    Unemployment.

    There are two things that can bother a regular citizen, that is slightly lower disposable income due to higher costs of living, and a decline of net value of the income.

    Both are not even close to the decline the other countries in the west are facing right now.
    And has not much to do with Ukraine.

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    caveat emptor
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    Post  caveat emptor Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:46 pm

    ALAMO wrote:
    But of course.
    Take a look at RUB conversion rates.
    The reference rates.
    Mortgage rates.
    Unemployment.

    There are two things that can bother a regular citizen, that is slightly lower disposable income due to higher costs of living, and a decline of net value of the income.

    Both are not even close to the decline the other countries in the west are facing right now.
    And has not much to do with Ukraine.
    Ruble conversion rate is a bs, as we have capital controls.
    Russia has overcome first economic shock, which is good.
     As i said before in another thread, this will be a marathon, not a sprint. 
    Russian macroeconomic indicators have looked good for more than a decade. I don't try to counter that.
    Problem is that regular guy don't see much of it in real life.
    Main problem that i have with Russian economy, is that it is extremely neoliberal in concept, with very big inequality and low median income. Probably many people are not aware of that, but in PPP terms Russian minimum wage is one of the lowest in Europe and median wage was also on the low scale. Last median wage info is from end of 2021 and it is 35000 rubles. Which means that half of the working population earns less than that. 
    To sum it up, Russian state is financially strong, while for consumers, on average, that is not the case. One of the strongest indicators is a surge in short term, unsecured, consumer loans. It is not a new phenomenon, as it is present for the last 5 years or so. For example, central bank of Russia took the notice and it is aggressively trying to stop that growth via more stringent requirements.
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    Post  ALAMO Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:17 pm

    Now you are just making blah blah blah.
    People give a shit to your studied response.
    And "macroeconomic indicators" can be used to wipe the arse, mostly.
    Yeah, the "goods basket" either, and the "objective inflation parameters".
    What bothers them is how much they pay for living.
    How is the mortgage payment this month.
    Can they buy on Aliexpress, and how much rubles that costs, as the prices there are all converted.
    Do they have a job, how easy is to find it or change it.
    All the real things that make a living good or bad, are objectively getting better in Russia.
    Country is developing at high rate, new roads and airports are being built, the civilization progress they made in the last 20 years is just stunning.
    Gee! But there is a village in the middle of nowhere,where two old babushkas are sitting, and they don't have a sewage system and gas! Russiais dying, all is bad, Putin huyno!
    My mortgage DOUBLED in the last 2 months. Not 10% rise, not 20% rise, not 50%, but DOUBLE.
    And will pay even more next month.
    By gas bill quadrupled.
    Electricity threefoled.
    Maybe some Russkie can switch, how do you think?

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    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:32 pm

    The duran did a video where they talked up the idea that US was mostly behind this recent flare up. They stated its a method to try and get Armenia out of russias influence because the US demanded it as recently from Armenia saying they would never have a problem with Azerbaijan again, more or less threatening Azerbaijan.

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    Post  ALAMO Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:38 pm

    sepheronx wrote:The duran did a video where they talked up the idea that US was mostly behind this recent flare up. They stated its a method to try and get Armenia out of russias influence because the US demanded it as recently from Armenia saying they would never have a problem with Azerbaijan again, more or less threatening Azerbaijan.


    But seems more and more that Russia started to really give a middle finger to Armenia, as for the last decade or more it brought more issues than gains.
    The announcement of selling Rusian gas (!!) to Iran is still warm, aired yesterday.
    It will be pumped via Azeri gas system.
    This is a gain, a real money, and a real power leverage.
    What can offer the Armenians, other than next stab in back?

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    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:44 pm

    ALAMO wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:The duran did a video where they talked up the idea that US was mostly behind this recent flare up. They stated its a method to try and get Armenia out of russias influence because the US demanded it as recently from Armenia saying they would never have a problem with Azerbaijan again, more or less threatening Azerbaijan.


    But seems more and more that Russia started to really give a middle finger to Armenia, as for the last decade or more it brought more issues than gains.
    The announcement of selling Rusian gas (!!) to Iran is still warm, aired yesterday.
    It will be pumped via Azeri gas system.
    This is a gain, a real money, and a real power leverage.
    What can offer the Armenians, other than next stab in back?

    And that's the thing. If let's say Armenia decides to go Pro US, they are literally fucked. So will Georgia. Reason being that Russia can turn their lights off of both countries and because it will be aimed against Turkish assets from US, Turkey can deny any kind of movement around there from the south.

    So Armenia would be entirely blockaded and screwed. You think Iran wants another US proxy on its border as well?

    Hopefully Armenians look beyond tiktok and Twitter for general thinking. Or they are screwed.

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:47 pm

    It is the Armenians issue to find own arses, even if they need to use both hands for it.
    If they need to be lighten up for a clear view ... well ... Twisted Evil

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    Scorpius
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    Post  Scorpius Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:58 pm

    ALAMO wrote:
    My mortgage DOUBLED in the last 2 months. Not 10% rise, not 20% rise, not 50%, but DOUBLE.
    And will pay even more next month.
    By gas bill quadrupled.
    Electricity threefoled.
    Maybe some Russkie can switch, how do you think?

    It sounds so fucked up, bro, my condolences. Reading the above, I begin to think that my $400 a month, which costs me my mortgage and ALL utility bills, is actually a huge luxury.

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    Broski
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    Post  Broski Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:25 pm

    Armenia forgets that geopolitically, it has zero importance other than another potential US outpost on Iran's border, so they're free to leave the CTSO and kick the Russians out. I don't think Russia cares either way.

    Turkey and Azerbaijan will gladly annex Armenia and setup a direct land bridge to each other.

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    zorobabel
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    Post  zorobabel Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:32 pm

    ALAMO wrote:
    My mortgage DOUBLED in the last 2 months. Not 10% rise, not 20% rise, not 50%, but DOUBLE.
    How does your mortgage double? Do you have a variable rate loan? Those are mostly illegal in most Western countries.

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    caveat emptor
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    Post  caveat emptor Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:21 am

    ALAMO wrote:My mortgage DOUBLED in the last 2 months. Not 10% rise, not 20% rise, not 50%, but DOUBLE.
    And will pay even more next month.
    You took an ARM mortgage for your primary residence?
    I feel for you bro, but that is amateur move. 
    I still remember a mess Poland had with CHF indexed mortgages back during Great recession. Almost took whole banking sector down.

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:38 am

    Scorpius wrote:
    It sounds so fucked up, bro, my condolences. Reading the above, I begin to think that my $400 a month, which costs me my mortgage and ALL utility bills, is actually a huge luxury.

    It is a bargain.
    considering that the incomes in Russia are getting closer and closer to our standards, and there is a really small difference now.
    A 50m2 app now needs about $110k, and the 30 y mortgage for it will cost about $800 a month. Add the other luxuries like heating&electricity, exploitation costs etc, and you have about triple of your expanses. Easilly.
    That is why I was talking about disposable income. If we compare this, and it is the only thing that matters, it might turn out that you are actually wealthier than most of the Europeans, and that was even before this crazy times. It is not an accident that Russian tourists has spent 30% more per capita on holidays. Those money must be coming from somewhere.

    zorobabel wrote:
    How does your mortgage double? Do you have a variable rate loan? Those are mostly illegal in most Western countries.

    Getting from history low reference rate to never seen in the last 15 years high in 2 months can do wonders my friend!
    There are no fixed-rate mortgage loans here like forever. 99% are variable. But I hardly believe it is illegal, as it is obviously normal in the UK and Germany.

    caveat emptor wrote:
    You took an ARM mortgage for your primary residence?
    I feel for you bro, but that is amateur move. 
    I still remember a mess Poland had with CHF indexed mortgages back during Great recession. Almost took whole banking sector down.

    Neither first, nor second Wink Laughing
    And the CHF was hardly a mess.
    I do have a CHF denominated mortgage loans either Twisted Evil
    It affected a very specific part of the consumers actually.
    The ones who were financing the purchases in 2008/2009, when the CHF/PLN ratio was insanely low, and were trying to leverage.
    Bankster system was settled for squeezing them like lemons, giving the loans higher than the immobility value.
    Some banksters financed up to 130% of the total immobility value, without any buyers' capital involved. Most of the people just consumed the gap.
    And it hardly brought down any of that shit eaters, as that were never a CHF loans in reality. Nobody was setting a secure positions with CHF options. They have just made people to cover that.
    It was the liquidity ratios that were pushed down in the whole bankster sector, as increasing CHF struck the credit portfolio value and forced them to settle additional securities as the immobilities value was getting smaller and smaller part of the credits. Some of that, they have forced the borrowers to cover. But they could not in some cases.
    To give you an impression, a friend of mine was crediting a home valued at 500 000 CHF at  the moment. It was about PLN990 000. Now, it is about PLN2.500 000. CHF ratio he was taking the money was PLN1.98. Now it is almost PLN4.95. And the home value is maybe at 1.2mln, max.
    ATLASCUB
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    Post  ATLASCUB Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:50 am

    sundoesntrise wrote:

    However imo stating that Erdo&Aliyev are on a US leash is a bridge too far. They are loose guns and at this point all the indicators point at them having a go at establishing that land corridor through Armenian territory. In fact they've already started it as during the Sept. 13-14 fighting they have taken up much more advantegous positions inside Armenian territory. Reminder that at its narrowest point the corridor is only 40-45 km, and that a full on invasion will likely be from two sides.

    I think its very hard to say without world class intel for sure as an observer. You're correct in that the Turks have been playing an independent game; with their strategic sights set on a pan-Turkish allegiance (of central Asian and M.E states) that comes at the expense, in part, of Russia's CSTO, and not before. Similar to Polish ambitions for Eastern Europe, but just a different theater. In that regard both the U.S/UK and the Turks find common ground in weakening and destroying the CSTO security architecture. So even if we are to entertain Azerbajan's/Turk moves on Armenia as simply competent opportunism due to Russia's SMO preoccupations... but without U.S/UK nudging/approval/co-optation... these moves, overall, are more than welcomed by the U.S/UK who will, smartly, try to opportunistically take advantage of the situation by trying to bait the remaining Armenian elites who support the Armenian/Russian security partnership to defect, step aside or push them out. The quid pro quo being simple: "exit the CSTO and we (U.S/UK) will help you solve this problem (and more), where the Russians fail". Pelosi's visit, her proclamations while in Armenia, plus the "street show" is all but confirmation of this. And the U.S/UK (unlike Russia) have lots of ways to seriously squeeze Azerbaijan economically without having to lob an Iskander at a pipeline. No small state wants that smoke if it can be avoided. And the world over knows the U.S/UK do act on their economic threats, by established precedent. The Azerbaijan elite won't risk that on top of Russia's ire too (it would be suicide at the height of victory), so if the U.S is able to successfully concoct a full flip of Armenia ala Georgia, I think the conflict would be negotiated into a peace deal extremely quickly, and succeed where the Russians have continually failed. We've seen this in the past with Egypt/Israel and U.S mediation for example. The Turks disconnecting from MIR after a few phone calls by the FED says a lot too - the leash is wide, and loose but it exists. Squeezing Russia/Putin on as many fronts possible is the natural move, and in this case it's way too complementary imo to be without common cause.

    As for the 4channer, even I didn't go there and the clown has been biting at my heels for weeks now.... Damn!

    No pedestal is too high for the partisan hack either, if only a dirty, evil westerner would tilt the base.... ooops! lol1
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    Post  TMA1 Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:49 am

    Angry, vann7? thumbsup

    Edit: forgot the question mark. my snarky comment failed this time, vann7, but it wont next time. Muah hahahaha

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:06 pm

    Are you still at the whining 'it's all so unfair' stage?

    No, I am celebrating... I was worried that the Russians would never get over their addiction to try to be European and might accept the role of butler or driver to be considered part of team west, but now the west is basically pushing them away and closing the door behind them and I think it is the best thing that could possibly happen to Russia and for the rest of the world because the west is essentially creating an alternative to themselves that does not include themselves.

    Russia and China and India and the many other rest of the world countries that join them will easily be able to fill in the technology and capability gap that the west leaves for those they isolate and punish with sanctions.

    Dare I say it... it is also very good for the rest of the world because the west has become toxic... some German poofter lecturing some Arab country about inclusion that if they want to hold international soccer events then they need to accept the rainbow people or else because soccer is about including everyone... except obviously Russians and people from Belarus.

    Germans lecturing Arabs...


    At some point you gotta move beyond your (misplaced) sense of moral superiority and others' lack of adhering to it.

    That is hilarious... the west fails because it does not adhere to its own morals and ethics... morals and ethics it holds other countries to to describe them as evil... Putin hates gays because he wont let them promote gay lifestyles to children... Russia does not put gay people in prison like lots of arab states do but this is not about morals it is about Putin.

    Russia is bad because it invades countries... Israel and the US are OK because all their attacks and invasions and wars are humanitarian in nature.

    Either you are willing to play the game and stand the heat or you get out of the kitchen.

    I am sitting in the living room enjoying a cold beer... it is the west throwing pans and vases and all sorts of shit at Russia and China and any other country that does not do as they are told.

    What junior partnership with the Chinese? The same Chinese who chickened out on Taiwan? Not that I blame them for averting conflict; but they're not leading Russia around by the nose.

    The concept of HATO is the US controlling European nations against Russia or Afghanistan or whoever they need cannon fodder for this time.... BRICS is not led by any country at all... Russia does not direct it and neither does China or India or Brazil etc etc. It is a political and trade grouping of countries who want to work together to develop and grow their own and each others economies. No one has to adopt communism to trade with China and China does not have to change to a democracy to trade with India or Russia or anyone else, there are no demands regarding culture or conformity... China does not have to approve of Crimea and Russia does not have to approve of Chinese islands in the south China sea... neither China nor Russia need to approve of what is happening in India in Kashmere or anywhere else.

    As for China, Russia and China are “allies” by necessity, not choice. They are natural and historical enemies and they will take every opportunity they can get to increase their influence at the expense of the other.

    A strong China is no threat to Russia and a strong Russia is not threat to China... and the real irony is that a strong Russia and a strong China were not going to be a threat to the west... except that the west is making them both so... but even then I don't think China and Russia will seek to destroy the west... more likely they will ignore it as best they can and avoid it... except when it gets in their way.

    Is it too farfetched to think that Xi JinPing deliberately ordered Putin to delay the invasion until after the Olympics - knowing full well that the Russians` effort would be hampered by the muddy terrain and daily US weapon transports in the run up?

    Nobody said a word about Georgia launching their attack on South Ossetia during the opening ceremony at the olympic games... western double standards of course.

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    sundoesntrise


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    Post  sundoesntrise Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:42 am

    'Opposition blogger' Suleymani has said that Azerbaijan has started a covert partial mobilization, and that Aliyev aims to create a new state on the southern part of the territory of Armenia named Gaychar-Zangezur.

    Map below is the 'historical' legitimatization.

    All unconfirmed.

    What has been confirmed though is the use of lettering (Z, A and B) akin to Russia's on military hardware near the Armenian border.

    Azerbaijan vs Armenia [Nagorno-Karabakh conflict] - Page 30 Fdnciv10
    Azerbaijan vs Armenia [Nagorno-Karabakh conflict] - Page 30 Fdnz3p10Azerbaijan vs Armenia [Nagorno-Karabakh conflict] - Page 30 Screen35
    TMA1
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    Post  TMA1 Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:55 am

    So I take it the goofy Palosi trip didnt work out?

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    Post  sundoesntrise Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:57 am

    TMA1 wrote:So I take it the goofy Palosi trip didnt work out?

    Why will Aliyev and Pasinyan both be in New York later today, and what will they talk about (and that means not just official agenda points) ?

    Is the ploy here a break up of the CSTO through Azeri aggression - with the US bringing the (rump-state) Armenians into the US led multilateral organisations coasting on a wave of anti-Russian Armenian dissatisfaction?

    Don't say that it's past Pashinyan. He is modern day Judas - first and foremost to his own people.
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    Post  sundoesntrise Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:02 am

    Oh, and as the cherry on the cake Armenian banks (like Kazakh, Vietnamese and Turkish banks) have stopped using the Mir payment system.

    Armenian banks have stopped using "Mir" payment system cards.
    "APA-Economics" informs that information about this was published in the Russian media.
    According to information, their owners cannot withdraw cash at ATMs or pay at retail outlets.
    Commenting on the issue, the Central Bank of Armenia said that banks have the right to make an independent decision regarding the provision of services to "Mir" cards.
    According to the regulator's statement, commercial banks independently manage their risks, including risks related to secondary sanctions.
    "Regarding the changes, commercial banks will inform customers in the established manner in case of changes in the conditions of their services", the information says.
    It should be recalled that before this it was announced that services to Mir cards were suspended by Turkey's "Iş Bankası" and "Deniz Bank", Kazakhstan's "Halyk Bank" and Vietnam's "BIDV".
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:55 am

    I am sorry for the Armenians also because the Azeri are doing a cultural destruction comparable to ISIS, destroyingany centuries old Armenian churches and historical heritage sites.

    However the government is doing everything to turn against its only real shield and ally (Russia), and also pissing off the other big player in the region that is also concerned about Azeri territorial claims (Iran).

    Until Pashynian went into power, something like this would have not been possible. He is the Armenian Gorbachev and Eltsin put together.

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