Project 949A: Oscar-II

Isos wrote:

mnztr wrote:

Isos wrote:The number of uksk isn't huge so the production don't need to be huge. Everytime they get a new plateform they can order a new batch.

Even the US have around 2500 tomahawks in stock with more than 150 launch plateforms.

You get best pricing when you set up to produce a substantial and steady amount. Just ordering ad hoc is very expensive. Employees get laid off, they are not avail when you call them back, they lose expertise. etc. This is why their ship building is in such a mess.

Missiles are made with tooling machines. You don't need experts for that. If course you will need some employees to always work on the production line and train new ones but that's not a big deal.

The figure you gave of 200 per year is not big. That's something like 2 or 3 per weak. 20 or 30 workers could do that pretty easily.

The big issue is price as they cost around million $ piece that's 200 million every year.

Its never as simple as it looks, all the components have to be assembled and tested, every single gas turbine. all the wiring etc. Each missile is several hundred components from across the country, hundreds of workers. Some of the components are commodity items, and some specific. Its really a small aircraft.

Big_Gazza wrote:

Tsavo Lion wrote:Update on Oscar modernization & opinion which I share: 
https://vz.ru/society/2020/9/3/1058182.html

For instance, Leopard and Wolf are both in the Severodvinsk boathouse undergoing modernisation, while Vepr has left Nerpa on sea trials.  Magadan is in the boathouse at Zvesda, but AFAIK its for repairs.

No, Leopard was deposited in Zvezdochka in 2011 (9 years, build a new submarine takes 7 years), it has been waiting there for 9 years, no modernization has started, only the spent nuclear fuel was discharged in 2013.
The tender for the purchase of new equipment for the Leopard has been published this year and the contract for 971M modernization of two 971´s was signed this summer

The Wolf has not even been touched, it goes next Leopard. If the Leoprard is delivered in 2023 it is Wolf it will be in 2025-2026

The Samara and the Bratsk, brought by a semi-submersible transport from the Pacific in 2014 are deposited in the shipyard pending, they would follow the Wolf in the period 2025-2030. The contract for its modernization will have to be signed in several years

Tiger and Vepr dont have received modernzation 971M, only capital repairs.
Tiger have been delivered, Vepr starts repairs now, next Tiger, to be delivered in 2023

Magadan was in Zvezda since 2012. None wprks was made for one single reason, the own Zvezda shipyard was in overhaul. The works on Magadan started in 2019 or so.

About the Oscars, only the Irkutsk is in moderization 949AM since late 2018 or so, the Chelyabinsk will go after Irkutsk. The modernization of more Oscars have no sense since 8 Yasen 885M are under contruction

The project of modernization of all SSN (Sierra I included) and 6 SSGN was suspended.
The price of modernization of 6 Oscar II was about the price of 4 new Yasen 885M.
Has no sense because Oscars will have more than 30-35 years in 2025

By 2027 Russian Navy will have 9 new Yasen that replaces Oscars. The total number of Yasen´s will be 10 to 12 at the end of this decade

New Yasen "Kazan" replaces Oscar II "Voronezh" in North fleet. Basically Yasen class replaces Oscar´s

The probably reason to modernizate two Oscars in the Pacific is the lack of Akulas there. Pacific Fleet will receive about 5 Yasen and need other 5 modernized subnmarines: 3 Akulas an two Oscars. This only fill the gap until the new SSN in the decade of 2030

The modernization of more Oscars have no sense since 8 Yasen 885M are under construction

what if it will take a lot longer to build all those 8 Yasen 885Ms? I would modernize  a few more to be on the safe side. By 2025/30, they'll need extra subs to escort LHD/UDKs/CBGs. 

Tsavo Lion wrote:..what if it will take a lot longer to build all those 8 Yasen 885Ms? I would modernize  a few more to be on the safe side. By 2025/30, they'll need extra subs to escort LHD/UDKs/CBGs.

By 2030 they may have an LHD to escort close by which should be no problem for non-nuclear subs, they won't be going anywhere far

As for CBGs maybe in 2125/30...

And Yasens are being built increasingly faster

We also forget Husky is on the drawing board and is supposed to be cheaper then Yassen. Yassen is said to be a pretty complex beast. maybe the simplified Huskey is something they plan to build in volume.

mnztr wrote:We also forget Husky is on the drawing board and is supposed to be cheaper then Yassen. Yassen is said to be a pretty complex beast. maybe the simplified Huskey is something they plan to build in volume.

Well I guess the Liaka class might have come from them deciding that they would rather have more submarines that are sufficiently superior to pindostanski subs than a handful of universal super subs.

Big_Gazza wrote:

AMCXXL wrote:
The price of modernization of 6 Oscar II was about the price of 4 new Yasen 885M.

Nah, not buying that.  The cost of repairs and upgrade to Pr 949AM standard is equal to 2/3 of a brand new Yasen???  I'd need to see an authoritative source on that, so good luck, cuz I don't see you will find any.  FFS, no-one seems to know what a serial-build Yasen costs, so how can you make comparisons???

Yasens don't replace Oscars.  Thats like saying that  Koalition 2S35 replaces Tyulpan 2S4.  Two very different weapons platforms, each of which has capabilities that the other lacks. 949As may be noisier than 885Ms but carrying 72x Oniks/Kalibre/Zircon gives it a punch that no other SSGN can match (not even Ohio SSGNs even if their missile count is higher).  949s don't need to be uber-silent and evade detection by prowling Seawolf/Virginias.  Against 3rd-party (non-NATO) adversaries they can operate unmolested even if shadowed by Murican pests, mobilising to some 3rd-world shithole and pounding it from afar USN style.  If Washington ever goes full retard and considers attacking Russia itself, the very idea of a number of these leviathans running quiet in the Barents sea with an escorting force of 885Ms will give any CVN captain an anxiety attack

Around 1.6B-1.7B for a Yasen.

The-thing-next-door wrote:

mnztr wrote:We also forget Husky is on the drawing board and is supposed to be cheaper then Yassen. Yassen is said to be a pretty complex beast. maybe the simplified Huskey is something they plan to build in volume.

Well I guess the Liaka class might have come from them deciding that they would rather have more submarines that are sufficiently superior to pindostanski subs than a handful of universal super subs.

Its also likely they found ways to deliver the functionality for less. With Liaka designed to be the basis of SSN SSBN and SSGN subs the economics should be much better and production also much faster.

I wonder if they will make a missile variant of the Liaka to act as the sucsessor to the Antei, the Yasen's missile count while not exactly underwhelming is not quite what you would want for a missile sub.

They did say that the Liaka would be "modular" so I guess there is hope of the Russian navy getting a true cruise missile sub.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Big_Gazza wrote:

AMCXXL wrote:
The price of modernization of 6 Oscar II was about the price of 4 new Yasen 885M.

Nah, not buying that.  The cost of repairs and upgrade to Pr 949AM standard is equal to 2/3 of a brand new Yasen???  I'd need to see an authoritative source on that, so good luck, cuz I don't see you will find any.  FFS, no-one seems to know what a serial-build Yasen costs, so how can you make comparisons???

Yasens don't replace Oscars.  Thats like saying that  Koalition 2S35 replaces Tyulpan 2S4.  Two very different weapons platforms, each of which has capabilities that the other lacks. 949As may be noisier than 885Ms but carrying 72x Oniks/Kalibre/Zircon gives it a punch that no other SSGN can match (not even Ohio SSGNs even if their missile count is higher).  949s don't need to be uber-silent and evade detection by prowling Seawolf/Virginias.  Against 3rd-party (non-NATO) adversaries they can operate unmolested even if shadowed by Murican pests, mobilising to some 3rd-world shithole and pounding it from afar USN style.  If Washington ever goes full retard and considers attacking Russia itself, the very idea of a number of these leviathans running quiet in the Barents sea with an escorting force of 885Ms will give any CVN captain an anxiety attack

Around 1.6B-1.7B for a Yasen.

By that time the price was about 20,000 million rubles the modernization 949AM and over 30,000 MR the price of a new Yasen (By 2011 ruble exchange was 28-30 per dollar)

The question was buy 6 Yasen or modernize 4 Oscar and 6 Akula (the Akula modernization could be a little cheap)

Big_Gazza wrote:

AMCXXL wrote:
The price of modernization of 6 Oscar II was about the price of 4 new Yasen 885M.

Nah, not buying that.  The cost of repairs and upgrade to Pr 949AM standard is equal to 2/3 of a brand new Yasen???  I'd need to see an authoritative source on that, so good luck, cuz I don't see you will find any.  FFS, no-one seems to know what a serial-build Yasen costs, so how can you make comparisons???

Most of the cost of a modernization are the new armament systems and new equipments (radar, sonar, electronics, updates of the power plant...) and you will pay all of those things the same in a new submarine or in a modernized one
The price for the shiptad works in not more than 15% of total. Cut and soldering metal is cheap

Of cousre a deep rebuild  to upgrade a Oscar to a XXI century submarine is more than half than a new submarine, and finally you get a old ship designed in 80´s as late

Yasens don't replace Oscars.

Of course yes, you can think that yoy want but facts are facts

Oscar II "Voronezh" was decommisioned, the crew has been transferred to Yasen "Kazan" , which is on trials, and the name "Voronezh" have been transderred to a new Yasen that has been started this year

Do you think Russia will keep 8 Oscar´s when receive 10-12 new Yasen´s ??

Of course not, only will keep a couple modernized by the lack of Alulas in the Pacific, waiting new SSN next decade

The objetive of Riussian Navy is have at least 32 submarines (now has 33) , 12 SSBN and 20 "multipurpose". In the better case not more than 36.
The more probable is 12 Borey´s. 10-12 Yasen´s and 12-14 new SSN

AMCXXL wrote:...The objetive of Riussian Navy is have at least 32 submarines

I didn't hear about this before, did they go on record about it?

AMCXXL wrote:...The more probable is 12 Borey´s. 10-12 Yasen´s and 12-14 new SSN

There will definitely be 12 Boreis now, original plan was to have at least 10 and up to 14

But since USN in the meantime decided to go with 12 Colombia-class (which will have same number of missiles as Borei) Russia will be building 12 of them

Parity and stability

As for other subs they should build Yasens as long as they can, they finally warmed up assembly line and it's an excellent platform

Huskies can spend some more time in design phase no problem


And personally I think Russia should look into building very large conventional power attack submarine (roughly 5000t) to operate at medium distances, Kilo on steroids with SSN equivalent amount of weapons

Divide workload, this for close and medium and SSNs for long range

Would save a lot of money (and Russian Navy usually doesn't operate a hemisphere away unlike USN)

US have to counter China. Russia doesn't need parity with them and US can't risk to loose their ships/subs to Russia because China is already too big for them and they are still growing.

Russia also has SSK that catch up US numbers. And they are armed with cruise missiles.

As for other subs they should build Yasens as long as they can, they finally warmed up assembly line and it's an excellent platform

Huskies can spend some more time in design phase no problem


And personally I think Russia should look into building very large conventional power attack submarine (roughly 5000t) to operate at medium distances, Kilo on steroids with SSN equivalent amount of weapons

They have the sierra and victor to replace because they will soon be removed. The Oscar too and the Akula will also need replacement in the future. Husky should come quickly even more wheb NATO starts using new subs.

Yasen isn't as optimized as them for attack roles. It's still a long and big SSGN. New SSN beeds to be smaller and have 20-30 crew members if possible.

The big SSK is unlikely. They are buying kilo to replace the old kilo in mass and nothing new for the next 20 years IMO.

AMCXXL wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Big_Gazza wrote:

AMCXXL wrote:
The price of modernization of 6 Oscar II was about the price of 4 new Yasen 885M.

Nah, not buying that.  The cost of repairs and upgrade to Pr 949AM standard is equal to 2/3 of a brand new Yasen???  I'd need to see an authoritative source on that, so good luck, cuz I don't see you will find any.  FFS, no-one seems to know what a serial-build Yasen costs, so how can you make comparisons???

Yasens don't replace Oscars.  Thats like saying that  Koalition 2S35 replaces Tyulpan 2S4.  Two very different weapons platforms, each of which has capabilities that the other lacks. 949As may be noisier than 885Ms but carrying 72x Oniks/Kalibre/Zircon gives it a punch that no other SSGN can match (not even Ohio SSGNs even if their missile count is higher).  949s don't need to be uber-silent and evade detection by prowling Seawolf/Virginias.  Against 3rd-party (non-NATO) adversaries they can operate unmolested even if shadowed by Murican pests, mobilising to some 3rd-world shithole and pounding it from afar USN style.  If Washington ever goes full retard and considers attacking Russia itself, the very idea of a number of these leviathans running quiet in the Barents sea with an escorting force of 885Ms will give any CVN captain an anxiety attack

Around 1.6B-1.7B for a Yasen.

By that time the price was about 20,000 million rubles the modernization 949AM and over 30,000 MR the price of a new Yasen (By 2011 ruble exchange was 28-30 per dollar)

The question was buy 6 Yasen or modernize 4 Oscar and 6 Akula (the Akula modernization could be a little cheap)

That is USD Billion btw..

So lets do Math lets go with your given number of 20M rubles which going by current exchange rates comes out to 255,200. USD

So if we use your given number to modernize six Oscars would cost about 1.5M USD.... a single Yasen costs 1.6B-1.7B USD.

1 Ruble currently equals 0.13 USD.

BUT for the record a single Oscar costs 182 million USD to modernize, so to modernize all the oscar will cost Russia One billion and ninety-two million.

So no....to modernize all six Oscars would not cost four Yasens, You have been fact checked good day.

The big SSK is unlikely. They are buying kilo to replace the old kilo in mass and nothing new for the next 20 years IMO.

They have Lada SSKs being worked on too, which eventually be longer ranged quieter Kilos when their AIP is up and running...

SeigSoloyvov wrote:So if we use your given number to modernize six Oscars would cost about 1.5M USD.... a single Yasen costs 1.6B-1.7B USD.
1 Ruble currently equals 0.13 USD.

Contract for serial production of 4 пр. 885M is in force for a fixed amount of 164 billions ruble with the lead submarine of the Ясень-М costing 47 billions ruble.

Pag. 6
https://www.minfin.ru/common/upload/library/2011/11/Materialy_SMI_ot_10.11.2011.pdf

Therefore at the exchange rate you have named a serial пр. 885M cost 533 ml. dollars with the lead ship costing 611 millions dollars.

Mindstorm wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:So if we use your given number to modernize six Oscars would cost about 1.5M USD.... a single Yasen costs 1.6B-1.7B USD.
1 Ruble currently equals 0.13 USD.

Contract for serial production of 4 пр. 885M is in force for a fixed amount of 164 billions ruble with the lead submarine of the Ясень-М costing 47 billions ruble.

Pag. 6
https://www.minfin.ru/common/upload/library/2011/11/Materialy_SMI_ot_10.11.2011.pdf

Therefore at the exchange rate you have named a serial пр. 885M cost 533 ml. dollars with the lead ship costing 611 millions dollars.

Yes, this is the point, 164.000

I remember the figure of 160.000 and more than 200.000 for the 5 includong the head 885
Anyway I beleive the place I read said that this was for 6 Yasen , not for 5

The modernization of 6 Oscar II was valuatrd in more than 120.000 millions rubles or more than 700 million dollars in 2011

164.000 millions was in 2011, 41.000 millions each 885M
The exchange rate of 28-30 in that date makes 1350-1450 millions dollar

If you includes the head 885, you get 211.000 millions, or 1,500 million dollars in 2011

Arrow wrote:So it is more than 5 times cheaper than Virginia SSN

That is how bad the corruption in the US MIC has become. Americans need to clean up their own house before treating everyone who
does not bend over an enemy.

Mindstorm wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:So if we use your given number to modernize six Oscars would cost about 1.5M USD.... a single Yasen costs 1.6B-1.7B USD.
1 Ruble currently equals 0.13 USD.

Contract for serial production of 4 пр. 885M is in force for a fixed amount of 164 billions ruble with the lead submarine of the Ясень-М costing 47 billions ruble.

Pag. 6
https://www.minfin.ru/common/upload/library/2011/11/Materialy_SMI_ot_10.11.2011.pdf

Therefore at the exchange rate you have named a serial пр. 885M cost 533 ml. dollars with the lead ship costing 611 millions dollars.

Well the document cites a "source" for that price.

Is there anything more than a unamed source to back that up, something from the shipyard or the government saying this price is accurate.

That is how bad the corruption in the US MIC has become. Americans need to clean up their own house before treating everyone who
does not bend over an enemy.

The corruption is not the problem... the reality is that they have no free media that should be a check and balance to prevent this sort of thing from happening, but lets face it... the people that own the MIC companies probably also own the media companies so why shit where you eat?

There is no free media in the west to tell the people of the west what is being done in their name and who is screwing the system over.

The funny thing is that most will tell you the problem is the lazy poor who don't want to work and are bleeding the system dry, but the real blood suckers are at the other end... all the poor which now includes much of the middle class now, are the symptoms.... not the disease.

Is there anything more than a unamed source to back that up, something from the shipyard or the government saying this price is accurate.

The source is secret... lets call it highly likely....

GarryB wrote:

That is how bad the corruption in the US MIC has become. Americans need to clean up their own house before treating everyone who
does not bend over an enemy.

The corruption is not the problem... the reality is that they have no free media that should be a check and balance to prevent this sort of thing from happening, but lets face it... the people that own the MIC companies probably also own the media companies so why shit where you eat?

There is no free media in the west to tell the people of the west what is being done in their name and who is screwing the system over.

The funny thing is that most will tell you the problem is the lazy poor who don't want to work and are bleeding the system dry, but the real blood suckers are at the other end... all the poor which now includes much of the middle class now, are the symptoms.... not the disease.

http://www.herinst.org/envcrisis/media/ownership/nbc.html

The US media is owned by the same oligarchy that runs the MIC racket.

Attacking the poor for being a burden on the taxpayer is a routine divide and rule tactic. The US is a corporate welfare state where
the working poor and jobless are far from being the main burden on the taxpayer. And the corporations that get the welfare avoid
paying fair taxes such as GE, which not only offshored its profits but got multi billion dollar government support outside of any business
contracts:

https://www.sanders.senate.gov/top-10-corporate-tax-avoiders