I don't know whether Gonzalo Lira or Yevgeny Prigozhin was dumber, in picking a political fight with a dangerously more powerful opponent. Lira should have shut up and got out when the getting was good, and Prigozhin should have at some point read a biography of George Patton, just to get an idea of what happens to military dissenters. when they get too uppity.
Prigozhin set his own wheel of doom in motion with his loud criticism of the support from the MOD in Bakmut. Everything played out like clockwork after that.
Whatever the motive, if you're gonna yell that loud, you should think about the next move. That was the MOD taking Wagner from Prigozhin. Regardless of what anyone might think of MOD policies, MOD couldn't just stand by while P's was undermining the MOD's strategy in Ukraine.
MOD made the obvious move to consolidate Wagner. At that point, Progozhinwas lost politically, and his "rebellion" was at best a desparate cris-de-cour that whimpered out instead of flared up.
But now P was getting more dangerous. On the one hand, MOD couldn't stand by until the next time that P felt inspired to march on Moscow, but he was too popular to eliminate summarily.
So MOD first had to subvert P's support among patriots, by eliminating leadership, First, put P on ice by sending him to "exile" in Belorus and Africa where he stay active but where his official power was limited for the time being.
Before P had time to rebuild his base, back in the RF, MOD was taking steps to undercut the opposition by going after its leadership, removing public intellectual Strelkov and high-level military sympathizers like Surovikin and Popov from positions of influence. (It would be unlikely that MOD did NOT have political informants in the ranks.)
At this point, the MOD had set the stage for removal. Prigozhin wasn't becoming any more reticent, and more likely to regrow into an even larger thorn. Time to fix the problem. A nebulous military attack is just the ticket, to cast a fog over the assassination just thick enough to make assassination deniable, but suggestive enough to send a warning.