The advantage in artillery hardly helps Russia then... Russia has not captured even 1% of Ukrainian territory in 2023, all gains made are really tiny.
Capturing territory is not the goal.
Eliminating enemy troops and weapons and equipment is the goal and that is going exceptionally well.
Without big arrow offensives winning this war is not possible.
Occupying large swaths of Ukrainian territory is not the goal of Russia, and would not win the war.
For them, having numerical advantage is necessary. I wanna see Bagration-like offensives with 3-4x Ru numerical advantage breaking the back of the Ukro army. So far none of this can be seen.
To achieve that they would need to have a few rounds of call ups and quite a few companies would cease production because of lack of workers, which will effect the economy.
Right now Russia is winning and the west are getting desperate and Kiev is failing by throwing men at Russian lines of defence because there is nothing else they can do.
This the russian strategy for the last year.
And probably the next year until Kiev runs out of men and then they will start pushing forward in places there are gaps or weaknesses... but as shown by Kievs forces pushing forward into mined areas under enemy artillery is dangerous slow work that would be costly if you did it half arsed... like Kiev is doing it.
None of those things affects the MIC where cost is no object. In the medium to long term capabilities will degrade but for now they are capable. They can buy metals from the USA, Canada, India, China etc etc.
It is the US that prints money, not Europe... and they are not just paying for the Ukrainian government and weapons and equipment, they are also paying for Ukrainian refugees in Europe too... they have started asking us to take some...
Looking how they can't deliver more than 10 items for every weapon they promised to Kiev they production capacity isn't super.
Obviously Europe could do better if it actually felt threatened, but this is about arming Kiev to damage Moscow... they couldn't send thousands of tanks and aircraft and millions of shells if they wanted to.
No. Not at all. I am contending that Russia has to be more brazen in the Black sea. And be less polite.
You want them to act like the west would... well maybe that is why Russia is Russia and why this conflict is happening in the first place.
Thankfully this stupidity from the US and EU has woken Russia up and the discounts and cheap materials time is over... Russia used to let European and Japanese fishermen fish in Russian waters and then can the fish in their own countries and sell the fish to Russia at ten times the domestic price they pay themselves.
This conflict is changing a lot of things and mostly for the better.
You have to take into account that everything they're saying could be a lie. About production plans and so on too. In reality they would be fools if they haven't got plans already in motion and at an advanced stage for ramping up production, not only against Russia but moreover against China too.
I hope they have because it will be 4-5 years before it gets to a useful level for Ukraine and probably 5 years after that before they can look at developing brand new stuff that can replace the current stuff they are using and have in production long enough to fill up the reserves they would need.
If NATO succeeds in starting to move it's economy into a war footing with the rapid foundation of new industrial capacities, maintain political cohesion of their bloc without defections or coups or revolutions, and enact at least a partial mobilization of their populations - then they can win against Russia, in fact probably will win.
Not without a total reform to change their MIC to companies that care about defence and not so much about profit....
Eastern Europe has just sent all its Cold War Warsaw Pact stuff to Kiev and they expect it all to be replaced by modern expensive western stuff that is like ten times more expensive to buy and ten times more expensive to operate, and the US has the same problem... I suspect a lot of European countries will be looking at South Korean tanks and armoured vehicles because Abrams use too much fuel and the German Leopard is clearly shit and its replacement wont be ready for 10 years let alone in production for anyone other than Germany...
And inflation is high so any money they borrow will be earning top interest which they also have to pay back.
Any ideas what the local population in newly incorporated territories thinks about being a part of Russia?
I would guess they will do as they are told like they did when the nazis from Kiev arrived and started killing people who didn't hate Russians.
At the very least they will want peace and appreciate that Russia will build and repair, whereas Kiev will continue to funnel any money they get to beachhouses and islands around the world.
Don't assume the same will happen if they take on a bloc of nations with over 700m population that deliver most of the advanced tech on the planet.
The fight in Ukraine is about kicking out the American overlords and their Ukrainian nazi puppets and then letting the Ukrainian people start again, either as part of Russia, or as independent states... they will get to decide.
Any conflict with Poland or the Baltic states or Finland will be brutal and nasty and likely nuclear... Russia does not care about Europeans any more, they are the enemy trying to bleed Russia of resources and assets and sending money and weapons and ammo to Kiev to murder Russian soldiers and civilians... there will be no kid gloves needed in such a conflict.
I am glad Putin would never be so unwise. He is a smart man. Prob the best leader on the planet today. I hope Russia can get this finished.
He is a smart man , which is why the west hates him so much, but he clearly realises that the west wants this to be over faster than Russia does but they want Kiev to win, so that is not going to happen. The alternative is to surrender Kiev and let Russia win and they wont do that either so they think they can bleed Russia and get Russia to do something stupid, but Putin knows this conflict is destroying the west and not destroying Russia.
Russia is being damaged but planes crash and things catch fire anyway, to rush this conflict with some silly encirclements and ultimatums will create Leningrad like sieges that the local nazis will love to be a part of, and they can continue to brutalise the locals.
When more Ukrainians realise they wont win and that the sooner this stops the better the outcome will be for them because they will stop losing thousands of men per day, then the chances they will start to do something for themselves and stop this.
Russian forces can then move forward and pick up the enemies laid down arms and start looking for war criminals and hold referendums so the people can decide their own future.
Its a tragedy that has to end ASAP.
This tragedy has to be ended properly or it will just repeat in 5 years time perhaps with different results.
When the entire Air Force of NATO nations starts attacking Russia, then they are taking on NATO. Until then they are fighting pawns armed with NATOs rubbish.
If you still think air power would make any difference then I suspect you have not been paying attention... HATOs air power is impressive but would be quickly grounded... it is not able to operate from unpaved fields like most Soviet aircraft can.
The safest assumption is to prepare for the worst . What is the worst that could happen ?
Expecting the worst from others might protect you from disappointment, but it also prevents you making friends and in actual fact ends up with you making enemies out of people who could have been friends or just people you know.
There is no benefit to negotiate with NATO until they are is a full position to dictate terms. tens of thousand of Russian boys are dead. The sooner this can be ended on RUSSIAS TERMS the better for all. And even better for Americans and Europeans. After Russia defeats Ukraine, hopefully they will be less willing to foment wars.
It is not going to end on Russias terms until Kievs army is either defeated or turns on him and kicks the US and HATO and the EU out of their part of the country.
That isn't Russia's responsibility. If the west wants to increase the heat, they will get burned. Are they willing to? Lets see. But really, it isn't Russia's choice one way or another. They are doing what they must.
The German economy is being damaged... and not just theirs, also Finland and Sweden and lots of other countries are having problems and the US is saying you are not on fire it is just a nice sunny day... what you need is more gas on the fire and that will solve things... the sanctions weren't the problem, the problem was not enough sanctions that didn't go far enough... except obviously a Russia uranium ban because America imported more Russian uranium this year than in several years previous... maybe they know what is coming soon...
If Russia cannot subdue the Ukies AF, are people seriously stupid enough to be claiming Russia could neutralize all of NATOs AF in ten min....and we do have planes capable of carrying ask with 200m range .
HATO would collapse if they took the air losses the Ukraine AF has taken... it now consists of rats hiding in dark corners... sometimes getting airborne long enough to launch a missile and get shot down and sometimes not even that.
HATO airforce intervention would be described as a target rich environment... don't think they would shoot them all down but a lot will be burning... and once they start introducing them their bases in Europe and other targets in Europe become fair game... have you worked out how to shoot down their hypersonic missiles yet?
Russias biggest problem would be deciding what to destroy first.
Yeap you get it, Russia cannot afford to let this war carry on for another five years.
Actually the opposite... it makes more sense to stretch it out and do as much damage to the west as possible than finish it now and risk a repeat in 5 years time where HATO secretly trains Orcs in Exile and fully equips and arms them in secret and then attacks in 5 years time...
I'm not an expert on military strategy, I have no training as an officer, just this armchair general stuff from forums such as these and the various computer wargames I played and some books that I read.
I am not either, but if it does turn out to last 10 years then Russia can always decide to start destroying infrastructure the way the west does to destroy the spirit of the country they happen to be attacking... there is a lot of real damage they can do like destroying farming machinery and truck transport and burning crops and storage areas for just any thing... once the entire civilian population start to suffer how long will they continue to support Zelensky... but Putin is not being that sort of bastard because he is not American or British... who happily leveled entire German cities and sent farmers to concentration camps for reeducation long before the commies ever did.
Agree 10 min is impossible, flight time of Topol and Bulava is 30 minutes.
Actually for close targets in Europe... 10 minutes would be just about right... it is targets 10-12 thousand kms or more away that take longer...
The only way to break this will is to unleash brutality, make the people realize the more you resist the worse it will get.
They are Russian, not uncouth barbarian Americans... they can save that for Plan B.
What I find the biggest absurd about this situation, is the fact that Russia seems to be the only country that didn't want that war at all.
It might sound ridiculous as they have started it - yet we need to consider all the factors here.
The irony is that it is actually the only country involved that wants the war to end and never wanted the war in the first place, but they were not given a choice and so if there is going to be a war it needs to achieve the goal of not becoming an endless war... and with an enemy that can't be trusted that is supported by countries that can't be trusted, then it needs to end by ending the country as it is now...
The bastard is the main actor in demilitarizing Ukraine, it is only normal that Russia has still not touched him...
It would look more democratic for Ukrainians to remove him when they come to the realisation that he is a liar and a thief and is not working for their interests... if Russia kills him he becomes a martyr... and he is so incompetent they might actually start to become more effective...
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