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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Wed May 17, 2023 11:00 am

    This could get interesting Laughing  The UK may have some questions to answer from Poland.

    Russian Market
    @runews
    ·
    4h
    ·
    ⚡RADIATION DUST REACHES POLAND  

    ☢ Radiation measuring devices installed in Poland showed a seven-fold jump in the level of bismuth.

    ⚡Bismuth is a decay product of depleted uranium. ☢

    The winds are currently blowing northwest to Germany.

    Poland yes, maybe not Germany. This is a live link (not forecast) to current winds etc https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=precip_3hr/orthographic=-356.78,57.67,2339

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 FwJpamsX0AAf8rf?format=jpg&name=360x360

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 FwTbTdKWAAAjxvw?format=jpg&name=small


    Meanwhile, some comments on the radiation level from a couple of days ago. Echos what was written here

    CatEmporor
    @CatEmporor
    ·
    May 15
    The gamma in #Khmelnytskyi  start to drop now but it is still elevated. The drop can be because of the wind is now blowing towards west of ukraine and into Poland.

    Martin Plodek🇨🇿🇺🇦
    @MartinPlodek
    ·
    May 15
    Depleted Uranium is Alfa emitter. It doesn't produce Gama radiation.

    O. E. Bobrovskyy
    @Old_OB
    ·
    May 15
    This is nanoSv. It's a tiny spike that occurs daily in a sunny weather. Even in Crimea radiation is higher right now.


    Last edited by JohninMK on Wed May 17, 2023 11:04 am; edited 2 times in total

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    Post  JohninMK Wed May 17, 2023 11:01 am

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    Post  Hole Wed May 17, 2023 11:18 am

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 Fwrxn410
    From Col. Viktor Baranets
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 Fwrym110
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 Fwrzci10

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    Post  JohninMK Wed May 17, 2023 11:22 am

    Thanks Hole, so it looks like the US have supplied the latest PAC-3 (for real world testing) rather than just the PAC-2 as thought. Pity it failed Smile

    Will Schryver
    @imetatronink
    ·
    12h
    ‼ This rather reasonably explains the two minutes of footage we've all seen.

    The Patriot launchers were firing blindly from the get-go. They almost certainly never intercepted a single target.

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    Post  Big_Gazza Wed May 17, 2023 11:55 am

    Smirking murkins were arrogantly braying how US anti-radar misisles would wipe out the Russian IADS but now they are the ones who got shafted and are now holding their ring pieces with both hands trying to stop their guts from falling out! Razz Razz Razz Razz

    Karma. Gotta love it,

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Wed May 17, 2023 12:52 pm

    Another substitute for ballistic missile are air launched cruise missiles,  something like KH101 but that can be carried by su34, su30/35, su24, su57 which can be launched and have ranges of 500km+

    From within friendly airspace, such a missile can strike up to 500km to the enemy

    Something with similar size and range to storm shadow- which can be accompanied by geran drones to allow them through IADS

    That would take advantage of aircraft with large payloads that are still not considered "strategic"

    Su34 could carry 16 in a flight of 8 , or even 32, so maybe 2-4 per plane

    And reload time would be quick

    The challenge would be building it with a cheap enough guidance system which could beat the cost of ballistic missile - although ballistic missiles with advanced guidance are not so cheap themselves

    Even Okhotnik could carry these as well,

    Then again a cheaper Iskander could also perform the task , but Iskander already needs decoys to get through so idk about how cheap you can really make iskander by gutting its most essential components

    At the end you need decoy systems for any of these systems to get through
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    Post  GarryB Wed May 17, 2023 12:57 pm

    This is one of the most positive PR releases from our MoD since the start of the hostilities, with virtually no qualifications.

    What a load of crap that was... there is no evidence Kiev shot down anything and their history of shooting down their own stuff should serve as a warning to their own pilots and drone operators.

    There is no evidence that any Kinzhals or Iskanders or Kh-22Ms or Kh-32s or other types have been shot down to date... that is why they are wanting F-16s...

    Thanks Hole, so it looks like the US have supplied the latest PAC-3 (for real world testing) rather than just the PAC-2 as thought. Pity it failed

    That is even funnier because not only is it much much more expensive than PAC-2, but it is almost useless against aerodynamic targets like drones and aircraft... it is supposed to directly hit very high speed ballistic targets that don't manouver... those holes around its body are side facing rocket motors to blast it sideways in the air at the last millisecond to blow it into the path of an incoming very high speed target.

    It otherwise has small low drag fins for stability... not sure it even has a decent warhead because it is designed to destroy the target kinetically with impact though it probably has a net or something that spreads out to increase the chance of connecting with the target.

    Karma. Gotta love it,

    Not to mention DU rounds are safe for Russian peasants... lets see how the EU feels about it.

    Of course to be fair the further the smoke cloud travels the more thinly the DU dust will be spread so the amount you can inhale is reduced, but lets remember, this is a heavy metal the body mistakes for calcium and uses to build bone structure putting its mild radiation that wont penetrate skin right next to your bone marrow which is critical for the bodies defences and of course it is genotoxic so it destroys DNA at the genetic level...

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Wed May 17, 2023 1:55 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Another substitute for ballistic missile are air launched cruise missiles,  something like KH101 but that can be carried by su34, su30/35, su24, su57 which can be launched and have ranges of 500km+


    They have it. But again it's lack of mass production that is lacking.

    Instead they prefere Kalibr or kh-101 which are bigger and require much bigger plateforms.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 Kh-59m11
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    Post  AlfaT8 Wed May 17, 2023 2:13 pm

    Brits are sending more goodies.  Razz

    UK to help supply Ukraine with F-16s – Sunak

    Sunak] and Prime Minister Rutte agreed they would work to build [an] international coalition to provide Ukraine with combat air capabilities, supporting [it] with everything from training to procuring F16 jets,” 10 Downing Street said, stressing the “importance of allies providing long-term security assistance to Ukraine.”

    https://www.rt.com/news/576413-uk-ukraine-f16-coalition/


    Last edited by AlfaT8 on Wed May 17, 2023 2:15 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  JohninMK Wed May 17, 2023 2:22 pm

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    Post  ALAMO Wed May 17, 2023 2:42 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 Photo165

    Meanwhile Ukro post ...

    LaughingRussian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 Photo166

    And it cleared what do they mean as "6 Daggers down" Laughing

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    Post  flamming_python Wed May 17, 2023 2:48 pm

    AlfaT8 wrote:Brits are sending more goodies.  Razz

    UK to help supply Ukraine with F-16s – Sunak

    Sunak] and Prime Minister Rutte agreed they would work to build [an] international coalition to provide Ukraine with combat air capabilities, supporting [it] with everything from training to procuring F16 jets,” 10 Downing Street said, stressing the “importance of allies providing long-term security assistance to Ukraine.”

    https://www.rt.com/news/576413-uk-ukraine-f16-coalition/

    Dunno what the UK plans to send, given that it doesn't have any F-16s.

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    Post  Isos Wed May 17, 2023 2:59 pm

    They will push chihuawa stataes provide the f-16 and be left with nothing but buy 2 f-35 for 3 billion. Russia should help UK do this IMO. The more they send the better. It will be easy for Russia to destroy them and the neighbours will be left with no air power.

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    Post  d_taddei2 Wed May 17, 2023 3:19 pm

    Even Biden in the past has stated kinzhal can't be shot down. So what makes anyone think the Ukrainians can even with USA tech.

    "Biden pointed out that the hypersonic Kinzhal missile is "a consequential weapon ... but with the same warhead on it as any other launched missile. It doesn't make that much difference except it's almost impossible to stop it. There's a reason they're using it"

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    Post  franco Wed May 17, 2023 3:24 pm

    https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1658675489987514369

    Let's talk about Russian small-unit tactics on the offensive. With Russian troops stepping up attacks across the front in Ukraine, I suspect this will be very relevant in the near future.

    A video came out recently which I will use to illustrate:

    This video was produced by journalists embedded with Russian troops near Spornoe, which I understand are a former LPR unit filled out by Russian reservists. These are ordinary motorized riflemen, not elite troops, equipped with BMP-1s and T-80BVs.

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    Post  franco Wed May 17, 2023 3:44 pm

    So we had a powerful UA counterattack at the flanks in Bakhmut. They hoped of course that it would lead to the encirclement of Bakhmut, but in the worse case, UA command hoped it would release the RU pressure on the main supply roads. In this, it was relatively successful, though more so in the south than in the north, and the southern road is already occupied by Wagner forces once it enters the urban city area itself.

    The 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade held the flank south of Ivanivske. This brigade is part of the newly formed 3rd Army Corps (based in Orenburg Oblast) & itself newly formed. The brigade and corps are part of the regional volunteer regiments raised before the RU partial mobilization. Similarly to the DNR and LNR battalions which were organized under the 1st and 2nd Army Corps, these were placed under a newly formed 3rd.

    While its volunteer membership may be a positive, the new formations can hardly be touted among Russia's best nor best equipped. It also likely is quite mixed in terms of ethnicity and spoken languages. It reeled under the pressure of attack, and gave way some territory, but the front was finally stabilized by the intervention of the 4th separate motor rifle brigade. Its commander (Colonel Vyacheslav Makarov (same name as a Duma member) and another high ranking officer, fell in these battles, but the front held. At this time I am not sure which brigade this may be part of. It is possible that this is the new name for the old LNR 4th Territorial Defense Brigade, the Prizrak Brigade, now that it is incorporated into the Russian army.

    Against these two brigades, the UA had launched formidable forces. First, the 3rd Assault Brigade Azov, which grew out of Azov SSO special forces and includes many Azov Regiment veterans.

    Second the 80th Air Assault Brigade. A brigade with a long history into the Soviet past, it more recently was an important part of the Kharkhov oblast offensive. Along with the 25th Airborne Brigade and the 92nd Mechanized Brigade, it took part of the successful battles around Kupyansk when the Russian forces attempted to stabilize the collapsing LNR front.
    It is one of Ukraine's best and most veteran units.

    Finally the assault waves included elements of the 5th Assault Brigade. Like the 3rd, it was formed in 2022, but it grew out of the 5th Assault Regiment founded by Pavlo Palisa, who now commands the 93rd Mechanized Brigade which held much of the Bakhmut Urban area and has been gradually pushed back (now perhaps in southern Domino). Some elements of the 5th, along with Special Forces elements appeared to have attacked in the SW corner if the city to open the Chajkovskogo st.

    Three top Ukrainian brigades, of the few that have offensive combat powers were thrown against two middling Russian ones. From reports, the UA losses were heavy.

    In the north, we had the 67th Brigade, which emerges from the all volunteer corps right sector.  One of the largest volunteer formation, it was reported that it all joined the SSO, but apparently not all battalions did. Some joined the 67th brigade which includes the Da Vinci Wolves battalion.

    This is undoubtedly one of Ukraine's most motivated and experienced brigades. The 92nd mechanized brigade, or at least its 3rd mechanized battalion, joined in as well. This unit has a long Soviet history as well, is also among UA's better formation and as noted above, took part in the successful Kharkhov offensive.

    These two top UA brigades squared off against the 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade (one of a few Arctic Warfare Brigades in the RU forces) of the 1th Army Corps,  and apparently only its 3rd battalion. The brigade had interestingly faced off against the 92nd brigade before during the Kupyansk battles last year.

    Further north on the salient, the 56th and 57th Mechanized Brigades attacked towards the 106th Air Assault Division (with support of the 6th Motorized Division), and made no territorial gains.

    So what does this tell us? In the south, 3 of Ukraine's best brigades, supported by a myriad of other units and artillery (munitions built up for weeks for the occasion) carried out an all-out attack against what was first one relatively average Russian brigade and subsequently another that came in to support it.

    Why the flanks were so poorly manned after all the warnings we can leave aside for now, but we can note that the UA achievement was not impressive, especially given the losses. The brigades' offensive power is sapped for now, especially in terms of armored vehicles.

    In the north, arguably UA's 2 best brigades until now, made some more impressive gains against one decent Russian brigade, but also were ultimately halted along better defensive positions and suffered heavy losses.

    Further north, two lesser UA brigades made no gains whatsoever against a higher quality Airborne (VDV) division. This is all very telling (note Prigozhin was telling us he hadn't seen the VDV because indeed, they were further north, and not where the breakthrough occurred).

    As we discussed previously, with enough concentration (and will) an attacker can always pierce through a defensive line (imagine 100 men vs 100, where a defender places 1 man per km guarding 100km front and the attacker leaves 1 man every 2 km along the same front and concentrates an attack of 50 men vs 1 defender on a 1 km stretch). The question is how deep, to what effect (can he exploit it effectively?), and at what cost?

    Ukraine has famously prepared 12 new brigades for its counteroffensive, with western help. Nine of these were trained and equipped by western states (see my pentagon leak article). The other 3 are being raised in Ukraine (also with western help). The Western trained 9 are the:

    47th
    33rd
    21st
    32nd
    37th
    82nd Air Assault Brigade
    118th
    117th
    116th

    The 22nd, 23rd and 49th may be modified names for the 117th, 116th (and less likely 118th) or more likely be the 3 Brigades that UA is raising locally, not sure at this point.

    We have reports on some of these brigades concentrating on either side of Dnipro (so that they can join either a Zaporizhizhia or (river crossing) Kherson one. But the location of these brigades would be very sensitive information and subject to UA misinformation.

    So UA command launched about a 5-7 brigade strength full scale attack against lightly fortified newly occupied salients (arguably in the gray zone) manned by outnumbered average Russian units, to achieve no breakthrough, modest territorial gains, and at a heavy cost. And these were its best veteran brigades.

    Unless the other 12, newly trained (and less veteran) are far superior, it does not bode well for what the UA may achieve with these. Again its best bet is to manage far greater concentration. But we have discussed why that is unlikely, due to concentration worries on the part of UA command which include giving up an element of surprise, presenting concentrated targets for RU strikes, and loss of the ability to gamble on more fronts.

    So while it always remains up to the men on the ground, and it is far from predetermined, so far we have further evidence of our previous thesis, that the UA counteroffensive, even with its 12 new brigades is unlikely to be able to penetrate well manned and fortified Russian fronts. UA should attack in the sparsest fronts (perhaps even into RU), with the greatest
    speed and concentration possible. The combat power it has wasted from 5 of its best brigades would have been much better used in coordination with the newly rooky brigades (for a total of 17 rather than 12).

    Of course, then it would have had to withdraw its troops before from Bakhmut before they would be encircled. With the high cost of this counterattack, the UA command has opened the roads for UA retreat out of Bakhmut, but only partially and tentatively. I will follow up with a post with some details about this and the current road situation.

    In short, the northern O-0506 road is not really open for business for the UA. It remains perilously under fire, and will quickly become useless as Wagner forces continue to near the western end of the city.

    It is the southern routes which are now still somewhat useful, as UA forces can travel around (north of) the hangar area in the SW corner of the city, still doggedly held by UA special forces and elements of the 5th Assault Brigade. But unless the myriad of units still within Bakhmut withdraw now, many will face a casualty-heavy rout away from the city if not a complete encirclement.

    Finally, a note about the intentional destruction of buildings. We saw earlier that UA forces were carrying out demolitions to deny high-rise buildings to RU forces and perhaps with some luck, to bring down the buildings on top of them, as they withdrew.

    We discussed them here https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1646841072910254080 (later with new video & more politically in the quoted thread here:
    https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1651957679655378947), and more recently here https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1653384078295457792 where I speculated that UA forces may not have any more explosives to carry this out.

    With the roads being partially re-opened, it is possible that UA forces received additional explosives for this operations. Wagner forces should be weary of this. This is only a speculation since UA forces may no longer be in a position to do this (too crowded, too chaotic, too desperate), and even if so, the limited supply situation may prioritize other supplies. The right units that can carry this out may also already be evacuated. In any event, the possibility of seeing demolitions once again is here.

    The fall of Bakhmut is here. Will UA troops get out, be encircled, and/or demolish buildings?

    Where an when will the famed 12 new brigades strike? Will they fare any better than these half dozen veteran brigades?

    https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1658641009662734336?cxt=HHwWgMC97bvN1oQuAAAA

    NOTE:
    - author is a veteran Israeli Army officer who has during the SMO provided some balanced insightful analyst of what is happening...
    - as far as I have been able to ascertain the Russian 3rd Corps is comprised of those volunteer units raised and funded by the Regional governments. For sure the 6th Motor Rifle division (54th & 57th Motor Rifle regiments, 10th Tank regiment and 27th SP Artillery regiment) and the 72nd Motor Rifle brigade belong to it for a total of 12-15,000 troops.

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    Post  mnztr Wed May 17, 2023 5:06 pm

    JohninMK wrote:


    Just aim at the lower floors and use the weight of the building to bring it down.

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    Post  Backman Wed May 17, 2023 5:31 pm

    That looked more like an iron dome setup than just a patriot battery. 

    It also looks like it has a dead hand mode.
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    Post  Hole Wed May 17, 2023 5:50 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 Fwu1ux10
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 Fwu1ux11
    More scrap metal found around Kiev.

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    Post  Hole Wed May 17, 2023 5:55 pm

    The "counter-attacks" around Bakhmut are going pretty well it seems:
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 Fwtx0-10
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 Fwtx1i10
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 Fwtx1u10

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    Post  ALAMO Wed May 17, 2023 6:29 pm

    They have already summed IT up. May 12th is the most gore day for Ukrowehrmacht ever. With 1700+KIA. Carry on, carry on!

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    Post  Mir Wed May 17, 2023 7:06 pm

    And now they want to teach these monkeys how to fly an F-16 Twisted Evil

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    Post  Werewolf Wed May 17, 2023 7:09 pm

    [quote="ALAMO"]
    [img(50%px,50%px)]https://servimg.com/view/20350030/306]Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 Photo166

    Who are these people?

    BTW image formating does not really work for me.

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    Post  Mir Wed May 17, 2023 7:19 pm

    Backman wrote:That looked more like an iron dome setup than just a patriot battery. 

    It also looks like it has a dead hand mode.

    Iron Dome would probably let rip quite a bit faster.
    To me it looked more like "desperate mode" Laughing

    GarryB and Backman like this post

    Podlodka77
    Podlodka77


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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42

    Post  Podlodka77 Wed May 17, 2023 8:20 pm

    Unfortunately, the Western masses will never find out from their media how much Patriot has failed in Ukroshitstan. The S-400 is far superior to any other air defense system in the world as it is one type of aircraft versus another type of aircraft. One of the best decisions of the Russian MOD was to invest in an echeloned air defense system as well as long-range missile systems. On the other hand, my opinion that missile weapons and drones are taking over the primacy turned out to be correct in the case of the destruction of the Patriot in which the Geran-2, 3M14 Kalibr and H47M2 participated. Credit goes to aviation for anti-radar missiles.

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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42 - Page 37 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42

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