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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #35

    kvs
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    Post  kvs Wed Jan 04, 2023 9:03 pm

    So smoke in the distance is a data point for Oryx. Yeah, the educational system is failing badly.

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    Post  Dr.Snufflebug Wed Jan 04, 2023 9:27 pm

    It is unbelievable to me that anyone seriously trying to understand the matter would pay even a minute of attention to "Oryx" and the like. They've been thoroughly discredited non-stop since February last year, it's a joke. Some degree of "bias" is present in almost everyone, but their "bias" goes beyond all, it's living in outright la-la-land. Much like the rest of the UA die-hard supporters.

    Then, on top of that, the Oryx crew are a bunch of weirdo Bayraktar fanboys too. So they're extra sour and biased nowadays when their favorite Turkish drones turned out to outright suck in an actual near-peer conflict, where there is decent AA.

    They're all pissy and angry, and they're extremely selective with what they choose to comment upon now. On top of that, they have become extremely dishonest in their assessments regarding what they do decide to comment.

    The only somewhat reliable OSINT guys when it comes to tracking losses (including captures) on either side is still "LostArmour", after all these years. They at the very least apply some degree of scientific rigor to it. But that means that they're slower, because of things that take time, like actual verification.

    Oryx is like the local charlatan know-it-all that diagnoses all your ailments in two secs and wants you to pay $500 for some universal remedy consisting of whatever, usually something that he also makes a good buck on selling.

    LostArmour is like an actual doctor, trying to narrow whatever ails you down so that he can help you properly.

    The former does it all in 5 secs, the latter might take a long time. That's the nature of things, unfortunately.


    Last edited by Dr.Snufflebug on Wed Jan 04, 2023 9:42 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  JohninMK Wed Jan 04, 2023 9:41 pm

    Sometimes, as we flounder round in all the tactical crap, we lose sight of Russia and China's overall strategic objectives, so we forget that all that Russia needs to achieve is to ensure that Ukraine can't be used to slow the transition of the non Western world towards multipolarity.

    Whilst it is likely to get it, Russia doesn't need any actual military victory in Ukraine to achieve its objectives. Old man Time is on its side.

    If the war goes on long enough, or Ukraine is an ungovernable mess, the resulting chaos in Europe, as it collapses under the cost of energy, will almost ensure that the US$ based financial strangle lock on BRICS/SCO member states will come apart long enough for a new reserve currency to be born. At that point Ukraine won't really matter any more and is likely to be abandoned to the wolves.

    When that happens and those in charge in the US seem to be doing everything possible to make sure it does, the resulting hyperinflation in the US will be the death of American power. Above all, this is what US should be doing everything in its powers to prevent, not a Russian tactical military victory in Ukraine.

    But the leaders of 'the Free World' have had 70 straight years of exploiting the World's assets and, like other Empires before them, have evolved into a generation who's skills are optimised in getting the best for themselves from within their systems believing in their souls that the status quo is for ever. It is their complacency in their relationships with the non Western World that will be their undoing.

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    Post  Godric Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:32 pm

    @d_taddel2 you have to remember Gadhafi was overthrown by the US and it's allies for touting a gold backed African dinar to replace the dollar in Africa and oil payments, this was a massive threat to US hegemony, hence Gadhafi had to be removed and USA had no problem over stepping there UN mandate to do so, So if Russia was to do the same along with the other Bric nations then it would cause a big run on the US dollar, how many countries would be prepared to hold on to there US debt bonds.

    as for Titanium, Russian Titanium is the highest quality compared to it's other competitors, hence Boeing, Lockheed Martin gets around 80% of it's Titanium from Russia to build there planes .... it would probably shut down US aviation manufacturing military and civilian

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    Post  limb Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:18 pm

    LostArmor is only allowed to cover ukrainian losses which makes his usefulness limited. Still much more reliable on ukrainian losses than oryx or ukrainian weapons tracker, who are also reluctant about registering krab losses.
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    Post  Regular Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:29 pm

    Lostarmour is slow to publish anything without extensive pictures, not much is revealed on Ukrainian side so it’s also a guesswork. The only reliable image of Ukrianian equipment loses can be made by their requests for donations
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    Post  JohninMK Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:31 pm

    Godric, although the US was on board due to the threat to the petro$ (as per Saddam) it was primarily the French who were directly threatened by the gold Dinar.

    Unlike the other colonialists, who on independence passed financial control on too, the French kept central bank functions for their ex colonies firmly in Paris. As per control the money control the country. So not only did Paris effectively still 'own' them but they also took an estimated 1 billion Euros every year out of it.

    Hence the French enthusiasm in that war.

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    Post  thegopnik Thu Jan 05, 2023 12:11 am

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    Post  Backman Thu Jan 05, 2023 12:44 am

    The Russian govt really has to have a discussion about its propaganda/info strategy, if there is one. Because having outfits like this running roughshod over the MOD isn't going to work. Yeah yeah, appreciate the honesty ppl say. Yeah. As does the enemy. Fighting wars isn't about honesty. Look at what they are doing. Providing maps, pictures and everything. Shut them down.

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    Post  PhSt Thu Jan 05, 2023 1:11 am

    Using already proven tactics, Ukraine is striking rear Russian facilities, breaking logistics and complicating Russia's supply system as much as possible.

    If NATzO NAZIs can do this, why not Russia? IMO the recent retribution strikes by Russia is not enough, Russia needs to unleash more Brutal strikes on Pukraine which will result to a devastating humanitarian catastrophe with horrifying results. This is the only language that the NATzO NAZIs understand attack

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    Post  sepheronx Thu Jan 05, 2023 1:18 am

    Even I'm a tad confused why Russia hasn't really hit Ukraines logistics as hard as Ukraine is hitting russias. Power stations have been hit enough. It would start to make more sense instead of hitting same objects again and again, start hitting at their crossings, bridges, train yards, airports, etc.

    In either case, we never expected Russia to strike at Ukraine in such a way so thry may move up the tempo by hitting logistics hard next.

    The thing about these bridges and what not, Rybar and cry all it wants but it really isnt hard for Russia to move temporary bridging and or find ways around. They already done it plenty of times with pontoon bridges.

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    Post  Regular Thu Jan 05, 2023 2:05 am

    Also, power-stations were not taken out, but transformers were. Turbines were not targeted. Maybe Russia leaves this as “nuclear” option as restoring the grid after this will take years and no western electricity supply would help. Literal, stone age until it’s fixed
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    Post  Backman Thu Jan 05, 2023 2:21 am

    Here is Reuters literally making headline stories directly from Rybar.

    Reuters, Anger in Russia as scores of troops killed in one of war’s deadliest strikes

    https://archive.ph/gTFqX
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    Post  Regular Thu Jan 05, 2023 3:36 am

    Rybar doesn’t post anything that breaches OPSEC as far as I know. They even mention that multiple times.

    If it wasn’t for Rybar, it would eventually be picked up by Soloyvov on TV who is critical of any **** ups.

    Perfectly, there should be radio silence during the war, but it seems it’s not a war..
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    Post  caveat emptor Thu Jan 05, 2023 3:56 am

    All these pics are published online and Rybar just collects them from telegram and other places. From what I noticed is that all Russian voenkors follow OPSEC rules and are very professional about that part of their job.
    Regarding critique, I don't see this as a bad thing, as some problems were solved much faster then they would be via regular military channels ( mobilization problems come to mind). Not to mention that all of them collected fuckton of much needed equipment such as drones and even vehicles.
    As for Reuters story and other MSM, they already publish so much garbage that one story more or less will not make a difference.

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    Post  Regular Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:14 am

    Reuters can publish a story based solely on rumours too. They did about that from 2014 And Syrian deployment too. Very bad “source” of information

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    Post  mnztr Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:35 am

    can anyone confirm what this guy is saying and is he a person of any gravitas in the russian govt?
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    Post  kvs Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:45 am

    The thread under that post is a Ukr masturbation fest. So this is some liberoid or poser.

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    Post  mnztr Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:02 am

    This story of HIMARS locking onto cell phone signals of Russian troops and hitting their target doesn't add up. How can unguided rockets like HIMARS lock onto targets? Certain cruise missiles can but not rocket artillery. This strike was probably carried out by NATO and not Ukros. Either that or NATO was able to triangulate the target and passed on the co ordinates to Ukros who launched the HIMARS. wrote:


    omg, buy a clue. The HIMARS rockets are not locking on to the phones. The phones are locking on to cellphone towers, they are sending location data from apps. Intelligence can get this location data, send it to the targeting center and rockets are inbound. They can easily look at sat photos and pick the likely building to confirm the location data.

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    Post  GarryB Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:21 am

    Why is the MoD blaming the soldiers cell phones instead of accepting that a certain commander in the co0mmand chain is responsible for putting hundreds of troops in a building next to the frontline? This is victim blaming.

    Who is to say some soldiers didn't break the rules to talk to family?

    Russian MoD response is cause for concern, because it doesnt claim responsibnility.

    And that is the problem... you don't know any of the significant details of what happened but the Russian MoD is guilty... couldn't possibly be any other reason or solution...

    I lumped in georgia with NATO. Even taking into account georgia, theres no way russia shot down 150 Su-25s.

    150 Su-25s is in your head.

    Russian MoD says soldiers’ cellphone use led to Makiivka strike. Not much can be expected from semi literate soldiers.

    NYT will make up any shit at all to make Russians look bad or stupid, which makes any article they publish worthless.

    Since , I also remember that a retreating army , should not be attacked , but a way left open for them .

    Tell that to Napleon retreating from Moscow.... or the Iraqis retreating from Kuwaite.

    This story of HIMARS locking onto cell phone signals of Russian troops and hitting their target doesn't add up.

    Would be ideal if they did because you could easily set up an ESM vehicle that bounced Cellphone signals off the side of a rock somewhere...

    What is happening is that cellphone signals are being triangulated and when there are quite a few in one location then it becomes a useful target to attack.

    How can unguided rockets like HIMARS lock onto targets? Certain cruise missiles can but not rocket artillery.

    They locate the ground coordinates of the cellphones and then just launch GPS guided HIMARS towards those coordinates.

    Then, on top of that, the Oryx crew are a bunch of weirdo Bayraktar fanboys too. So they're extra sour and biased nowadays when their favorite Turkish drones turned out to outright suck in an actual near-peer conflict, where there is decent AA.

    It is not a bad drone, but against an enemy with first rate air defence they don't last long enough to do any good and they are not super cheap and super simple so such drones don't make sense till you have degraded the enemy air defence with smaller cheaper suicide drones in enormous numbers to wear down their air defence.

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    Post  TMA1 Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:29 am

    I find it interesting that Russia, though careful in what information comes out, has been the side most honest and true. The west has fallen under a cloud of insane propaganda. Russia is the righteous fighter in this war. There is such a cloud over the eyes of people in the west.

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    Post  Erk Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:41 am

    TMA1 wrote:

    I find it interesting that Russia, though careful in what information comes out, has been the side most honest and true. The west has fallen under a cloud of insane propaganda. Russia is the righteous fighter in this war. There is such a cloud over the eyes of people in the west.

    The entire concept of wanting a global hegemony via coercion is a kind of insanity, when you represent a minor percentage of the global population.
    Misinformation in the media is a form of censorship, the US neocons don't want people hearing the truth, that's why things like RT got banned.
    Theses are very frightened/greedy people that will do anything not to give up control.

    Putin can easily win against them by simply reporting the truth, it just takes longer.

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    Post  d_taddei2 Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:00 am

    @Godric yes the situation with Gaddafi was true but Libya was but one country. Now put a group of countries together the situation is a bit different strength in numbers, and these are countries the USA aren't going to be able to persuade other NATO countries to come along for the ride, and some of these countries as one example u have already provided supply a important product. And then theirs the nuclear weapons factor, Libya had none.

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    Post  d_taddei2 Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:02 am

    I highly doubt that this will be a game changer, do they have any trained tank crews left? I will they actually be delivered? And if so when?


    According to information published in the French Newspaper "Le Figaro" on January 4, 2023, French President Emmanuel Macron announced to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that France will deliver to Ukraine French-made light tanks AMX-10RC / RCR armed with a 105mm semi-automatic cannon able to defeat Russian Main Battle Tanks
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    Post  ALAMO Thu Jan 05, 2023 8:01 am

    Hence the French enthusiasm in that war.

    Supported by the fact that Kadaffi was speaking openly about financing Sarkozy and demanded the loans return.

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