Russian special military operation in Ukraine #33

@flamming_python

Well despite the attempts at dressing up any development as a premeditated cunning plan, no I don't think what's happening now was part of anyone's intention.

And I don't know what the Russian political and military leadership calculated what was likely to happen, but evidently they did hope the Ukraine to capitulate quickly, ideally when Russian forces advanced on Kiev. When that failed, they hoped to negotiate a settlement in March/April.

However Russia was a smart gambler, and did prepare for a long war nevertheless, a long attritional war and a long economic war, and took all necessary steps. And it's this preparation which explains why the West is now 'trapped'. Exactly because the West didn't prepare for that.

Well, you confuse the development of events on the ground from day to day with the strategic objective of this war.
Of course, the Kremlin has several alternative plans depending on how the scenario unfolds, another thing is that this or that movement on the ground can be improvised depending on the circumstances.

Russia did not try to take by siege Kiev or any other city at any time (except Mariupol), for that it would have needed triple the number of troops in February.

Russia simply sent a last warning to the UKraine oligarchy to negotiate, which it has not done seriously since 2014, but it is clear that this war was designed in Langley for more than three decades ago.

The Ukrainian oligarchy met in Vilnius in March and Washington prohibited from surrendering or negotiating.
This means that the wealth base of this oligarchy, which is Donbas and the south-eastern Ukraine, will be destroyed and they will lose their billions and political power

Even if Ukraine goverment had surrendered in March, the war would not have ended, because Ukraine is not the main theater of the war but NATO / EU
In addition, Russia's strategic movement in February, attacking from various directions, allowed it to take the southern cities intact and quickly and establish the corridor from Donbass to Crimea that was the first strategic goal of the military operation

This is a long-term war of attrition, it will not only bankrupt and collapse the Ukrainian state but undermine the EU economy which will cause instability in the NATO countries and prevent a rearmament in Europe

The negotiations are indeed a theater, neither the Americans are interested in an agreed ending nor are the Russians
Of course Russia cannot openly declare that she wants to destroy the Ukrainian state, so she pretends to negotiate like the Nazi regime does.

Even if there was a truce or some kind of pact, it would only be to rearm and continue in a short time, the same thing happened in Yugoslavia, the war lasted throughout the 90s despite apparent "peace agreements" that were false because the intention of Clinton was to totally destroy the Yugoslav state and then do the same with the USSR / CIS

Or they just don't bring them out and fire that often to get plonked.

Meanwhile Russian guns just keep firing thousands of shells day in day out.

No wonder the hohols are down 100k dead at least, 400k dead if you include the MIA rotting in the fields.

Because rocket artillery in general have a longer effective range compared to gun artillery.

When firing at extreme ranges the dispersion is large so you need to fire more munitions to guarantee a hit.

You also have to fire fast, because after the first round has dropped the troops would seek shelter, disperse, or drive off.

In practice the SPH batteries are just a few km behind the first echelon, which means they have to have the same mobility as the units they are supporting.

Rocket Artillery can afford to hang back, pick their terrain to launch from so tactical mobility is not that much of an issue.

May have to do with the fact Finland is desperately trying to get it's ass painted by nuclear missiles by joining NATO.

So propaganda is going off the rails.

That said, sending spent missiles as decoys is a ton cheaper than using training missiles used as targets for AD systems.

As said a dozen times, this is a war of attrition and the Russians are gonna let Ukraine spend everything the west gives them in an evening. While still also hitting targets.