zorobabel wrote:From the beginning of the war, Russia has not been able to adapt from the war it wanted versus the war that actually exists.
This explains the most recent failures, namely the collapse on the Kharkov front and the collapse of the Kherson front.
Russia's failures were in the beggining, since then however it has more or less fought the war when and where it wants.
In Kharkov Russian forces were attacked as they were in the process of withdrawing anyway, and in Kherson they also evidently made a decision earlier on to withdraw and did so without issue
The Ukrainians have attempted to expand the battlefield to the Crimea, Belgorod, etc.. on occasion, but notice that such attempts were one-offs that weren't possible to repeat, or otherwise cost them a great deal in Russian counter-escalation
And so that leaves the Donbass as where most of the action has been and continues to be. Exactly as Russia publicly declared a focus for back all the way in March.
Whether Ukraine is calling up its 9th or 90th round of conscription is irrelevant. Morale is through the roof on their side, and Ukraine still has millions of able-bodied men to call up.
That's the main fault with such Russian withdrawals/manuevers/etc... of giving up territories without a fight. It does indeed bolster enemy morale.
Russia however doesn't care much about short-term morale boosts for the Ukraine and indeed they are short-term.
Morale for the Ukrainians was also through the roof after Kharkov but that all faded after a further month of failed assaults against Kherson and other areas whereby they took heavy casualties
Those millions of able-bodied men left are also left without basic infrastructure or livelihoods yet still have the need to support their families. Which they won't be able to do if they die at the front either. The motivation will be heavy for them to go to Europe and find work there.
For now, Ukraine's focus will be to destroy the Kerch Strait Bridge (somehow) and push south to Berdyansk. Their ability to do so depends on what weapons they get from the US and Russia's use of newly mobilized soldiers. They don't care about the Donbas for the time being, and possibly never.
Both goals are rather futile and US-supplied weapons will not change the picture. The later of which I don't doubt will be diversified, including to the ATACMS that they keep publicly denying they're supplying despite no-one having asked for their comment on that issue. Said public denials are instead of course warnings to the Russian side, about what in fact they're prepared to supply to the Ukrainians if X, Y or Z.
Berdyansk is part of the Russian land-bridge to the Crimea and a vital route, while the Kerch straight bridge is also a supply route to the Crimea. Both are also very defensible.
The Ukrainians will simply waste their resources in trying, so let them try
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Walther von Oldenburg
