Russian special military operation in Ukraine #31

ALAMO wrote:

flamming_python wrote:
The article states that Polish and Hungarian relations have considerably improved
But in fact said relations between Poland Hungary were always close; they always set aside their differences on Russia policy and simply cooperated within the framework of the Visegrad group and against Brussels.
So just from that I would be inclined to dismiss this reportage. As well as due to the authors' privy to these top secret consultations that have not left any other trails it seems

There are no "Polish-Hungarian" relations, and the Visegard Triangle is a non working sofa type organization that can do perfectly shit.
Poles do like Hungarians and vice versa, but that runs on the human factor&level only.
Both Hungary and Poland had their issues with the EU commission, but for both, the cause and goals differ.
Orban won't do anything that will seriously undermine the HU-RUS relations, as they are making very good money from those.  
And again, a scenario of partitioning Ukraine using its historical lines&divisions was heavily promoted by the Russian side itself a while ago. It would benefit them - removing the problem of pure hate toward Russian fueling the western Ukrs. Let the Poles and Hungarians pick the hot potatoes. The only risk here would be turning Poland into 50+ mln country, but with our fertility rates that issue is irrelevant, this number will be halved by 2010. Plus causing a massive migration now solves that issue either, as the Ukrs will just spread along the entire Europe.

If for Hungary it is just Transcarpathia, it is a relatively small region and not particularly russophobic. Probably it would not change much. However if Poland would take some of the region's on the north west (Lvov, Ternopol, Ivano-frankovsk, Volyn, parts of Rivne, etc) we are talking at something about 7 millions people (albeit a considerable part of them is already in Poland or in other NATO countries). This is a bit less than 20 % of the polish population (it depends on how many people would like to stay or return to those regions, in case of a polish takeover) and their hate for Poland is not much less than their hate for Russia. Once they will be in the same country as the second enemy, they will create a lot of problems...

However, in Rivne Oblast and in the north of Khmelnytskyi Oblast there are two nuclear powerplants. I doubt Russia would leave them to Poland.


Furthermore it would be beneficial for Russia to have a land connection to Hungary (and through Hungary, to Serbia). That means that at least a part of the russophobic regions (e.g. half of Ternopol and Ivano-Frankovsk regions) would have to be kept at least in a sort of Russian protectorate in order to ensure a direct connection with Transcarpathia.

Finally it would not be a bad idea to have control of the pipelines that go into Hungary at least. I know that the pipelines are old and needing maintenance, but being able to provide gas to Hungary and Serbia without having to go through unfriendly countries is definitely an advantage.

The ugledar offensive utterly stalled. Not even pavlovka was fully taken. Idk why it was so hyped up. This is the result of Ukrainians easily sending reinforcements between areas.

Russian losses there are at least 2 tanks and 5-6 btrs. Ukrainian losses are in the hundreds in terms of troops.

See, not all ukrainians are dumb, some understand reality.

Double failure of Ukrainian paratroopers near Svatove and Kremenna: top story

On the night of November 4, units of the 25th and 80th AFU Airborne Brigades made an attempt to break through to positions of the Russian Armed Forces located 7km northeast of the settlement of Terny and near Kuzemivka in the Kupyansk direction.

According to the AFU radio intercepts, both brigades received similar orders.

The 25th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU was to reach the R-66 route connecting Svatovo (LNR) in the north and Kreminna in the south, while the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade was instructed to break the first echelon of the RF Armed Forces defence and take under fire control the section of the R-07 route.

Units of the 25th Brigade of the AFU were unable to reach the anticipated breakthrough location: in the morning of November 4, after the detection of infantry and international MaxxPro armoured vehicles by the Orlan-30 drone, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were attacked with Russia's 300 mm Smerch rocket systems .

Units of the 80th Brigade were left without military communications due to the operation of Russian REB complexes and contacted the command via open channels 15 km northwest of Svatov. The contact of the AFU paratroopers was detected by the Shipovnik-AERO REB complex, after which the 80th Brigade's positions were hit by Giatsint-B guns.

It is noteworthy that both company groups of the Ukrainian Airborne Troops were sent on the raid without fire support: the 66th separate mechanised brigade of the AFU, which was covering the 25th brigade, had lost 80 percent of its T-64B and T-72B battle tanks as well as a significant amount of artillery.

The 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the AFU, previously engaged in attacks north of Svatov, has lost 70% of its serviceable tanks and currently has only M113 and YPR-765 light APCs.

The situation in the neighbouring units is even worse: the 95th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade near Olhovka (40 km northwest of Kremenna) has only one out of 11 T-80BV tanks in good condition, and only four out of 18 BM-21 Grad tanks in good condition. Most of the equipment is seriously damaged and cannot be used in combat.

The AFU paratroopers cannot quickly repair tanks and multiple rocket launchers using their own resources: Because of the strikes on Ukraine's power facilities, the delivery of spare parts and necessary equipment to the front lines has practically stopped.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/18855

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https://t.me/Slavyangrad/18842

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
If for Hungary it is just Transcarpathia, it is a relatively small region and not particularly russophobic. Probably it would not change much. However if Poland would take some of the region's on the north west (Lvov, Ternopol, Ivano-frankovsk, Volyn, parts of Rivne, etc) we are talking at something about 7 millions people (albeit a considerable part of them is already in Poland or in other NATO countries). This is a bit less than 20 % of the polish population (it depends on how many people would like to stay or return to those regions, in case of a polish takeover) and their hate for Poland is not much less than their hate for Russia. Once they will be in the same country as the second enemy, they will create a lot of problems...

Yes you are right.
What bothered me for a while now, is the fact that Ukrs are done.
That means the tool Anglosaxons constructed get broken, and they will need a new one.
From that perspective, combining the remains of Ukr with Poland is a very tasty concept.
They will get some +50 mln cannon fodder at an unbelievable level of Russophobia that can be forged into a very effective crusaders.
And I am the last in line to die for Anglosaxon hegemony, you know...
That is why I really like the Russkie strategy to bleed them white and push the population away from Ukropistan.
Each day, the numbers are looking better and better, and by the end of winter, several more millions of Ukrs will be displaced along Europe, to never come back.
Maybe it is kind of inhuman, but that is how the Realpolitik looks like. I was advocating for this type of solution a while ago. Willingly repatriation is very effective solution to this kind of ethnical problem, but it would require Russkie to quit the narrative about brotherly Ukrainians first of all.

lyle6 wrote:
Bakhmut is probably the most fortified place on earth right now, even rivaling parts of the Korean DMZ. And yet the heavily outnumbered Wagner assault groups are advancing slowly but steadily trading casualties very, very favorably with the Ukrainians. The only way the latter could even keep their hold in Bakhmut (and everywhere else, it seems) is by throwing entire battalions of meat to be chewed up by Wagner almost just as quickly.
Mind you, this is an insane level of performance from light infantry. No one else even dares come close. Which is hilarious because Russia sees light infantry as an anachronism for the most part, preferring to invest in mechanized and motorized troops with their mobility, protection and firepower. Wagner just doesn't give a **** though. They get paid and they kick ass.

Couldn't say that better bro.
I would just add something I was already telling ya'.
If you are living in the US, Australia, NZ - you can hardly imagine the scale of a problem.
Donbas is one of the most heavily urbanized areas on the planet. We talk about hundreds of km of constant infrastructure, divided by tons of rivers, lakes etc. It reminds a Silesia in a sort due to obvious reasons. You don't know in which city you are, because those are growing into one another. A "village" can be 1000 homes making a lane of buildings 10 km long and 2 km wide. They have a 8-10 floor buildings made of industrial-grade concrete blocks in a "villages". And "a village" can be 5000 people.
The type of infrastructure is totally different to the one you are familiar with. Constructed in another way, using other materials.
In the US, a Grad salvo would have just wipe out the entire neighborhood made of wood, cardboard, and MDF plates. A concrete plate would be the only thing that is left.
But not in Russia.
We talk heavy urbanization made with concrete, stones and bricks. Each single house has a cellar, that is made of concrete either.
You can bomb that, but what will be left is a mountain of rubbles that make even better defensive positions.
They have digged that in all directions for 8 bloody years. This thing is insane, and the fact Russkie still are crushing that at a factor of loses is really scary.

Edit : to give you an impression, there is some material from the Russian TV :

https://t.me/SIL0VIKI/56290

TASS


Ukroshitstans departures to eternal hunting grounds for November 6, 2022


The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced the failure of attempts to attack the Armed Forces of Ukraine positions in the LPR and the Kharkov region
"In the Kupyansk direction, the battalion tactical group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reinforced by the formation of nationalists, tried to attack the positions of Russian troops on a narrow sector of the front in the direction of the Novoselovskoye settlement of the Lugansk People's Republic," Konashenkov said.
Konashenkov added that the RF Armed Forces had eliminated enemy manpower and equipment. "During the day, up to 200 Ukrainian servicemen, eight tanks, nine armored combat vehicles and eight pickup trucks were destroyed in this [Kupyansk] direction," the lieutenant general said.



* The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced the destruction of mercenaries from the United States and Poland in the Krasny Liman area
"Up to 100 militants of national formations and foreign mercenaries, including about 40 mercenaries from the United States, Great Britain and Poland, as well as 10 armored combat vehicles, were destroyed as a result of a precision strike by the Russian Aerospace Forces near the settlement of Krasny Liman in the Donetsk People's Republic," Konashenkov said.



* The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced the repulsed attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Krasnolimansk direction
"On the Krasnoliman direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attacked with two battalion tactical groups in the direction of the settlements of Ploshchanka, Artemovka, Stelmakhovka of the Luhansk People's Republic and Yampolovka of the Donetsk People's Republic," he said.
Konashenkov specified that up to 250 Ukrainian servicemen and nationalists, two tanks, four armored combat vehicles, a Grad multiple launch rocket system, a self-propelled artillery mount and 12 vehicles were destroyed as a result of Russian artillery and army aviation strikes.



* The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced the destruction of two howitzers M777 south of Donetsk
"In the South Donetsk direction, Russian artillery fire and active actions of assault groups defeated units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Pavlovka, Novomikhailovka and Vremevka of the Donetsk People's Republic. Up to 70 Ukrainian servicemen, one tank, an infantry fighting vehicle, four pickup trucks and two M777 howitzers were destroyed made in the USA," ,Konashenkov said.



* The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported two repulsed attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region
"In the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog direction, the enemy, with forces up to a motorized infantry company, twice attacked the positions of Russian troops in the direction of the settlements of Sablukovka and Pyatikhatka, Kherson region. As a result of fire damage and successful actions of Russian units, the enemy was thrown back to their original positions," he said.
Konashenkov specified that Russian units destroyed more than 50 Ukrainian servicemen, eight armored combat vehicles and 10 vehicles.




* The RF Ministry of Defense announced the defeat of the command post of the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the DPR
"Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile forces and artillery hit the command post of the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of ​​​​the settlement of Prechistovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, as well as 67 artillery units in firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 184 districts," - he said.



* Russian Defense Ministry announced the destruction of 120 missiles of the American MLRS HIMARS
"In the area of ​​the settlement of Krasnoarmeysk in the Donetsk People's Republic, as a result of an attack on a warehouse of missile and artillery weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 120 rockets of the American HIMARS multiple launch rocket system, 250 rockets of the Smerch multiple launch rocket system and two transport-loading vehicles were destroyed," he said.
In addition, according to him, an ammunition depot of the 65th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was destroyed near the city of Zaporozhye.

Podlodka77 wrote:* Russian Defense Ministry announced the destruction of 120 missiles of the American MLRS HIMARS
"In the area of ​​the settlement of Krasnoarmeysk in the Donetsk People's Republic, as a result of an attack on a warehouse of missile and artillery weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 120 rockets of the American HIMARS multiple launch rocket system, 250 rockets of the Smerch multiple launch rocket system and two transport-loading vehicles were destroyed," he said.
In addition, according to him, an ammunition depot of the 65th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was destroyed near the city of Zaporozhye.

That must have been one hell of an explosion.

Probably it was the one Hole posted a while ago.
I was not sure if they hit two ammo depots on that day, or just one named by the two different locations, as the pic was only from one location back then.

Who is this Sladkov from TG? is he a reliable source? I just saw a post from the channel claiming that DPR forces are having difficulties in the Pavlovka sector

https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/6587

One of the most influential millitary correspondents. Has especially strong ties in LDNR.
As for Pavlovka/ Ugledar attack, Khodakovsky said that attack came too early and that some careerist ordered it.

Number of intercepted Tochka/U missiles.



Edit : forgot to translate. Months down of the scale starting with Feb.
Bottom : 18 pcs of PU killed (puschevnaya ustanovka - launcher).

Ukrs were supposed to have some 20 PU in operational status before 220222, out of approx. 90 left back in 1991.
And about 300 missiles for those were there back in 2014, while some 60-95 used for shelling LDNR since.

They run out of both PU and the missiles, that is why there are no Tochka strikes anymore.

Apparently the assault on pavlovka was a failure. A soldier from the 155th brigade made the following complaint to the voenkor Khodakovskiy. Found in the comments of the colonelcassad posts.

[In reply to Colonelcassad]
“Dear Oleg Nikolaevich. The Marines of the 155th Marine Brigade are addressing you.
Once again, we were thrown into an incomprehensible offensive by General M. and his corefan countryman A. in order for M. to earn bonuses in front of the Chief of the General Staff, and A. comrade M. promised the Hero of Russia.

As a result, we and the marines of Kamchatka are advancing on Pavlovka. As a result of the "carefully" planned offensive by the "great generals", we lost about ... people in 4 days killed, wounded and missing. ... percent of technology. This is just our team.

The command of the district, together with A., hide this and take the official figures of losses for fear of responsibility.

How they were going to capture the settlement by slipping through the landings, in which the enemy remained now destroying ours on the evacuation routes of the wounded and the supply of ammunition. In addition, Pavlovka is lower than Ugledar, from which they beat us.

Oleg Nikolaevich, Primorye people! How long will such mediocrity as M. and A. plan military operations for the sake of their reports and receive awards at the cost of the lives of so many people.

They don't care about anything just to show themselves. They call people meat.

We ask you to turn to the Supreme Commander so that they send a commission not from the Ministry of Defense, where M. protects G., but an independent one.

Let them be asked the purpose of such actions, their provision, and the results without embellishment.
How much can you endure!”

Main points:
1. Assaulting in a field of mud
2. Attack on village  that if taken(it wasn't even taken fully) that would just cause attritional losses due to shelling from ugledar
3. The attack was mainly to stroke the ego of a few generals who wanted to get medals
4. When many units retreated, due to poor organization and panic,  they were destroyed by ambushes. Plausible since we saw 2 T-80s getting destroyed by some ukroshits in bushes.


IDK how much this is a psyop, but there vids of several russian tanks and around a dozen APCs getting destroyed near ugledar.


Colonelcassad's post:
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/69507

Boris Rozhin wrote:Concerning questions about Pavlovka.
I repeat. Our troops were successful only on the first day of the offensive, when they managed to occupy part of the village. The enemy, due to positions near Ugledar and due to control of strongholds in Pavlovka itself, resists in an organized manner, as a result of which, already on the 2nd day of the offensive, the pace of the offensive fell, just like it fell when advancing in the Novomikhailovka area and everything gradually comes down to positional battles , where the slow pace of advancement or the absence thereof less and less justifies the burden on the operation and the losses associated with it. Hence the complaints that there are losses, but there is no significant progress.
By itself, the assault on Ugledar, Avdiivka and Marinka could not initially promise any rapid pace. You can see for yourself how long it took to take the fortified area in Sands. Under Vuhledar, the fortified area of ​​the Armed Forces of Ukraine is even more serious. Therefore, victorious marches without losses should not be expected here.

I have 1 question: Why does the 2nd-3rd army in world struggle to take more than a few hundred meters of evacuated villages in a few months? I dont care if this is a psyop, the facts on the ground regarding territorial progress speak for themselves.

limb wrote:Apparently the assault on pavlovka was a failure. A soldier from the 155th brigade made the following complaint to the voenkor Khodakovskiy. Found in the comments of the colonelcassad posts.

Khodakovsky is not a journalist, but professional soldier and commander of Vostok brigade. He often speaks his mind and doesn't shy away from getting into conflict for it. He pointed at the beginning of the attack, that it came prematurely and it was not well prepared.
For people, that don't know who he is:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Khodakovsky

Bakhmut is probably the most fortified place on earth right now, even rivaling parts of the Korean DMZ. And yet the heavily outnumbered Wagner assault groups are advancing slowly but steadily trading casualties very, very favorably with the Ukrainians. The only way the latter could even keep their hold in Bakhmut (and everywhere else, it seems) is by throwing entire battalions of meat to be chewed up by Wagner almost just as quickly.

Mind you, this is an insane level of performance from light infantry. No one else even dares come close. Which is hilarious because Russia sees light infantry as an anachronism for the most part, preferring to invest in mechanized and motorized troops with their mobility, protection and firepower. Wagner just doesn't give a **** though. They get paid and they kick ass.

Wasnt that supposed to be Avdeevka? Also define fortified. The terrain is flat to rolling hills, not jungles, mountains, dense forests. The city is mainly houses and some high rise buildings. Its not the US inner city or downtown Manila or Beijing.
There are no massive concrete tunnel networks like in avdeevka. The concrete bunkers aren't that big. They can easily be destroyed by:
Tyulpans with smelchaks
S-25, S-25L
BETAB-500
KAB-1500
KAB-500,
S-24
X-25
X-38
Smerch guided rounds
TOS-1
203mm shells
LMUR
Hermes

Russia should have dozens of thousands of these, and more than enough to equip wagner in accordance with their difficult task.

caveat emptor wrote:

limb wrote:Apparently the assault on pavlovka was a failure. A soldier from the 155th brigade made the following complaint to the voenkor Khodakovskiy. Found in the comments of the colonelcassad posts.

Khodakovsky is not a journalist, but proffesional soldier and commander of Vostok brigade. He often speaks his mind and doesn't shy away from getting into conflict for it. He pointed at the beginning of the attack, that it came prematurely and it was not well prepared.
For people, that don't know who he is:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Khodakovsky

Ah my bad. Well that gives him even more credibility, unlike konashenkov. These marines are almost irreplaceable, unlike cannon fodder ukrainian mobiks and polish mercs, yet theyre takingirreplaceable losses.

franco wrote:however it is under the guns of the town to the north Uhledar which is another of the fortified cities built in Donetsk. Brilliant planning by NATO, designed to cause massive casualties to the Russians in taking them. Hopefully someone comes up with a counter strategy soon to be able to take them...

If Russia has the means to deliver FAOBs to Uhledar, will  this take care of the arty stationed over there? I understand that sending bombers which currently is the only delivery platform for FAOBs is a big risk, which is why I am suggesting that Russia designs a somewhat oversized Geran that will carry FOABs to enemy positions without risking bombers.


EDIT, why not saturate the area with ballistic/ cruise missiles as well as Gerans to take out NATzO arty placements? perhaps this will give the liberating forces the cover they need.

Erk wrote:Quite a good little rant from Alexander about the US troops in Ukraine.
He draws attention to the similarity what the US are doing in Ukraine, to what they did in Vietnam decades ago.

To be blunt, I can't stomach that snot nosed delivery. And he needs to see a sawbones, he's really sick, looks half or more dead. But I can't stand him so he's on any ignore post out there.

Auslander

franco wrote:

limb wrote:Apparently the assault on pavlovka was a failure. A soldier from the 155th brigade made the following complaint to the voenkor Khodakovskiy. Found in the comments of the colonelcassad posts


I have 1 question: Why does the 2nd-3rd army in world struggle to take more than a few hundred meters of evacuated villages in a few months? I dont care if this is a psyop, the facts on the ground regarding territorial progress speak for themselves.

You obviously need to go to the front lines and find out for yourself. I have military training, experience and have been studying warfare for 50 years and I don't have any brilliant suggestions.

Im not suggesting, Im posting first hand accounts of an officer on the ugledar frontline.

As I see that people here rely too much on pro-Russian English channels, which are sometimes sanitized, here is a link to personal channel of A Khodakovsky:
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif
He doesn't post often, but when he does, it is very well worth it.

auslander wrote:To be blunt, I can't stomach that snot nosed delivery. And he needs to see a sawbones, he's really sick, looks half or more dead. But I can't stand him so he's on any ignore post out there.

If he would talk straight and clearly his videos would be only half as long.

Ukraine in 1894. 

Isn't it time for Russia to use more powerful conventional weapons to clear Ukro NATzO fortifications? It would be very helpful if Russia develops an alternative explosive device that has comparable blast radius to a nuclear bomb but without the radiation and non nuclear in nature to circumvent current international treaties. I think the closest one at the moment would be thermobaric weapons like the FOAB but it seems there is unwillingness to use this because of the vulnerabilities of its delivery platform, which kinda defeat the purpose of these weapons in the first place