Russian troops set a trap for the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Ugledar
"Kherson Gambit". With this conditional name, military analysts designate what is happening right now on the battlefields in Ukraine. Russian troops launched two new offensives in the Donbass at once, and they look insignificant only at first glance. This is also directly connected with Kherson.
Russian troops, after artillery and air preparation, in which the Solntsepek TOS took part, went on the offensive on the front from Ugledar and around Avdiivka. Units and formations of the 29th Combined Arms Army, the 68th Army Corps of the RF Armed Forces and the People's Militia of the DPR take part in the offensive.
At the middle of the day on October 31, Russian troops occupied the village of Pavlovka to the Kashgalach river. In fact, this is the whole village, since the buildings of the former state farm are located on the other side of the river. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation also took control of the crossings over Kashgalach. There is a cleansing and destruction of scattered pockets of resistance. The road to Ugledar is actually open, despite the resistance of the enemy.
At night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to stop the problem by urgently transferring reinforcements to Pavlovka - tanks and armored personnel carriers, as well as at least six Bogdan howitzers. It can be assumed that on the approaches to Ugledar from the south and south-west, the enemy will urgently try to build some kind of new line of defense, although there is nothing to cling to there in the steppe.
Another thing is that Ugledar itself, despite its small size, is a serious fortified area. Vuhledar is a city consisting entirely of apartment buildings, which have been turned into defensive positions by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Observation posts and firing points are equipped there, from which the entire steppe is visible.
At the same time, to the north and northeast of Ugledar, the allied forces continue to advance in the direction of Novomikhailovka, with the potential occupation of which opens the road to neighboring Konstantinovka - a crossroads. And this will already mean the encirclement of Ugledar from three sides and the complete cessation of its supply.
In Novomikhailovka, Russian troops strike end-to-end against the positions of the 72nd mechanized and 79th air assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. So far, it is noticeable that the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot decide which sector of the front around Vuhledar is more important. Over the night of Monday, reserves near Pavlovka were transferred just from the positions of the 72nd brigade near Novomikhailovka. Thus, some positions were exposed to protect others. These throwings of the enemy on a small sector of the front demonstrated that the very attack on the Ugledar ledge was a surprise for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The battles for these two small villages are far from a private story. The Ugledar ledge of enemy positions dangerously interferes with all Russian positions from Donetsk to Volnovakha. Another thing is that it would be imprudent to confine ourselves to the occupation of Pavlovka along the Kashgalach River. This is a lowland that is well shot through and difficult to defend. The first skyscrapers of Ugledar are 1800 meters away, Ukrainian optics have been standing on the coal mine pilers near Ugledar for a long time, electronic warfare positions are also equipped there.
In fact, the APU here is not even required to use the UAV to adjust the fire, which cancels the reference to bad weather. This was the reason for the parallel attack on Novomikhailovka, surrounding Ugledar. By and large, the quick occupation of Ugledar itself would be a natural way out.
At the same time, north of Donetsk, the advance of Russian forces began in the direction of the villages of Pervomayskoye, Vodyanoye and Opytnoye in a general direction north west of Avdiivka. Pervomaiskoye is being cleared, and heavy fighting is under way for Experienced. In the Avdiivka area, in general, the entire local front was set in motion, for which heavy artillery systems and attack aircraft were also used.
This is also not a private story. The powerful fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Avdiivka, like Ugledar, is surrounded on three sides, with the only way out to the north through Ocheretnoye. If the plan is fully implemented, Avdiivka, stretched along the railroad track from south to north with a vast industrial zone, may turn into a new Azovstal for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In addition to these two directions, active offensive operations of the RF Armed Forces began on Sunday against Belogorovka, Nikolayevka, Veseloye, Mayorsk, Novobakhmutovka, Artemovsk (Bakhmut) and Maryinka. At Artemovsk, fierce battles are going on for the village of Experienced, which, in fact, is part of Artemovsk, its suburb (not to be confused with Experienced, which is near Avdiivka). The RF Armed Forces are concentrating precisely in the DPR region, although artillery fire has been ongoing for several days almost along the entire front line. At the same time and. about. Head of the DPR Pushilin on Monday, by his decree, included five villages in the Shakhtersky district of the DPR, including Experienced, which has not even been cleared yet. Most likely, the operational plan of the offensive west of Avdiivka is designed for an even deeper advance.
The reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Ugledarsky and Avdeevsky directions are practically exhausted. The 72nd brigade, which previously controlled Vuhledar, was considered elite and "presidential", but only one battalion remained of this composition. The 93rd brigade, which played the role of a reserve, was transferred near Soledar (huge reserves are being pumped there and near Artemovsk in the Chasov Yar area with the stubbornness of a maniac of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). The Aidar battalion also hung there. It is impossible to transfer them under Ugledar. Kyiv, if they are going to defend Ugledar and further Marinka, will have to urgently transfer reserves from other sectors, and this situation has developed for the first time since the summer.
What does all this mean? The last two weeks have been marked by periodic attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to work out the previous agenda. Firstly, these are the inertial attempts of Kyiv to advance in the north on Svatovo and Kremennaya, and secondly, the endless suicidal attempts of attacks in the direction of Kherson.
To some extent, the operational picture of what is happening on the fronts of the Northern Military District began to resemble a chess game under the conditional name "Kherson Gambit". The demonstrative evacuation of the civilian population from Kherson and rural areas on the western bank of the Dnieper was accompanied by statements by senior Russian officers about "difficult decisions". At the same time, also publicly in Kherson, they began to prepare for street battles and form a territorial defense brigade.
In Kyiv, on this occasion, at first they were clearly inspired. The Ukrainian Armed Forces even increased their attempts to attack Kherson and Berislav, although the Ukrainian advancing units regularly got into the fire bag. Then it is known about the transfer to the Kherson direction of HIMARS systems, taken from the Svatovo-Kremnoye direction.
Then the head of the Ukrainian military intelligence, Budanov, said that the Russian troops were not planning to leave Kherson. However, by this time, reserves, including tank ones, had already been transferred to the Kherson direction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Donetsk direction, in fact, remained with the Armed Forces of Ukraine without operational reserves. And the strategic reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are drawn from a new wave of mobilization, forming new “numbered” brigades.
Near Artyomovsk, in the Chasovoy Yar, more than three numbered brigades, a couple of territorial defense brigades and Aidar-type national battalions got stuck. They stand there without the possibility of any movement, since the RF Armed Forces put pressure on them daily. The Armed Forces of Ukraine can no longer remove them from there, because this will immediately lead to the loss of Artemovsk.
As a result, the Ukrainian front from Zaporozhye to Kremennaya suddenly sagged. Curators in Kyiv pointed to this danger. There were rumors that the Russian offensive would begin even earlier, but it was the Zaporizhzhya and Krivoy Rog directions that caught the eye as the main direction.
But the main value, including political, is that part of the DPR, which remains under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and it was there that the front began to move. It can already be said that since the beginning of partial mobilization in the RF Armed Forces, holes have been completely eliminated in all sectors of the Ukrainian front. It is still difficult to assess whether there are enough forces to organize another counterattack, or whether we are talking about only two directions - Ugledar and Avdeevsky. But this is the next move in this game.