Russian special military operation in Ukraine #26

Backman wrote:How did the Donbas militia win the first 2 wars ?

They had to give substantial territories to shorten the front lines. Some say that it was because of Northern wind that was blowing in those days.

Werewolf wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
Russia needs to deploy the reserve forces across the boarders, push Ukraine back out past the river, and then hold these positions until the new forces they are mobilizing are ready.

This is what they can do now and this is completely possible.

Why are you strategists not in some military academy and give lectures on how to wage and win wars?

There is a saying - an empty kettle is always the loudest. Evident from the most frequent posters on this thread.
Most people shut up if they don't have anything valuable to add or don't know more than there is, but some of you are just unhinged shit talkers.

I know that I don't have the knowledge or character to have any brilliant ideas how to lead the troops and war against NATO.
You and many others seem to have some special training and gathered knowledge for years how to win WW3.

I am amazed by so much wisdom and power to see always three steps ahead of the game.

Edit: PS. If you wouldn't have claimed the claims you made about HIMARS vs SMERCH', then you wouldn't look so foolish with every claim you make. People tried to humble you, but your arrogance towers above human decency.

Oh my friend, I am just saying what they can do. The active russian reserves are equipped enough and have enough numbers to force Ukraine back close to their starting positions...

Unless you are telling me I am wrong and those uncommitted reserves do not have the strength to push Ukraine back...I do believe a sudden influx of tens of thousands of additional russian troops would stabilize that frontline given how they have performed.

My suggestion is based on current russian force performances, so I must ask.

Why did you feel the need to white knight? and try to insult me when the situation on the ground is clear as day?.

Ooooooh right you are a fanboy, nevermind.

LoL me saying Himars was superior to smerch in those specific areas pissed you off that much? that's sad as hell buddy. I wasn't wrong about those things, You sure do love throwing your hissy fits huh, so I'll say it again HIMARS is superior to smerch in terms of accuracy and mobility.

Hole wrote:
Armchair Field Marshalls that rely on 2 days old info from OSINT sources think they are smarter then the Russian General Staff who monitors the situation in real-time. 
If there had been Twitter during the Kursk battle back in the GPW... 

This one is a very good observation, as we already have seen that even the most competent war correspondents like Rozhin, Sladkov or Gonzo were wrong several times
But what is even more important, Rozhin was already used as a deliberate tool of disinformation, the biggest being fake "Izum reinforcements" where there was nothing like that even planned.

caveat emptor wrote:
They had to give substantial territories to shorten the front lines. Some say that it was because of Northern wind that was blowing in those days.

Maybe a minute long tet'a'tet with map would be helpful.
I would start with finding the location of Ilovaisk.

I don't understand why is the problem for some people to accept that maybe some Russian generals are not in their positions by merit. Or their thinking might be completely outdated. If everyone go back to WW2, before Zhukov and Rokossovsky, USSR had Budyonny an "artefact" from another era,  marshall nonetheless, that slaughtered several hundred thousand troops during Winter war and beginning of WW2 due to his outdated tactics.
Hell, during Kosovo in '99 we had Lazarević that was a great commander and Pavkovic that was a scumbag, that got advanced by marrying right.

ALAMO wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:
They had to give substantial territories to shorten the front lines. Some say that it was because of Northern wind that was blowing in those days.

Maybe a minute long tet'a'tet with map would be helpful.
I would start with finding the location of Ilovaisk.

They had to give up Slovyansk, Lisichansk/Severodonetsk and other areas before Ilovaisk happened. 
And Severny veter, was obvious allusion to Russian troop in those days.

caveat emptor wrote:I don't understand why is the problem for some people to accept that maybe some Russian generals are not in their positions by merit. Or their thinking might be completely outdated. If everyone go back to WW2, before Zhukov and Rokossovsky, USSR had Budyonny an "artefact" from another era,  marshall nonetheless, that slaughtered several hundred thousand troops during Winter war and beginning of WW2 due to his outdated tactics.
Hell, during Kosovo in '99 we had Lazarević that was a great commander and Pavkovic that was a scumbag, that got advanced by marrying right.

Well, it is quite hard for most of us, as we keep in mind that in the last 30 years, Russian army carried out several objectively big and complicated wars.
The amount of combined experience is I would say the biggest on the planet.
Plus some things obviously don't adds up just from the beginning. A wise men seeing something he does not understands, sits quiet, observes, and tries to get a point.
While the stupids are running like madmen shouting about treason, incompetence, and rage.
It is everyone's own choice who he wants to be.

caveat emptor wrote:
They had to give up Slovyansk, Lisichansk/Severodonetsk and other areas before Ilovaisk happened. 
And Severny veter, was obvious allusion to Russian troop in those days.

So a/ you have not looked on a map or b/ you did but get no point out of that.
Let me help you.
Ilovaisk is deeply inside the Doneck territory, and the Ukrainian army reached it after a quite successful campaign, that effected in it's overstretching, loosing the supply lines, and opening the window of opportunity to smash them from several directions with an intense artillery bombardment that tore them apart.
The difference was, that republicans had no strategic depth for any serious maneuver warfare, as any mistake could be the last one for them.
This campaign is de facto very similar to the one carried in 2014/2015. The difference is the scale and the fact that the forces are standing on the opposite positions now, and are using the enemy tactic from the last clash.

In good news, situation stabilizing on the Kherson front: https://t.me/Slavyangrad/10523

Yes, the meatgrinder is stable indeed.

Have you by accident watched any Ukro provided materials, how the forests and roads leading to Liman look like from their side?

Oh, please do!

caveat emptor wrote:

GarryB wrote:
You mentioned allied forces repelling attacks against Liman multiple times... so what exactly the problem... let them fixate on that place and lose men and material trying to take it... this is snake island all over again...

That works both ways, unless you think that Ukrainians are shooting confetti. Russian forces deployed there are in a semi-encircled positions and i would assume their losses will grow substantially. Also Ukrainians can hit supply lines from Kremennaya now.

Reports from allied forces in Liman say they are taking heavy losses. So the argument that this is a meat grinder for UA forces is so absurd as to not acknowledge.

ALAMO wrote:
So a/ you have not looked on a map or b/ you did but get no point out of that.
Let me help you.
Ilovaisk is deeply inside the Doneck territory, and the Ukrainian army reached it after a quite successful campaign, that effected in it's overstretching, loosing the supply lines, and opening the window of opportunity to smash them from several directions with an intense artillery bombardment that tore them apart.
The difference was, that republicans had no strategic depth for any serious maneuver warfare, as any mistake could be the last one for them.

Smashed from several directions with troops that would be not readily available if they didn't withdraw from the north. And i would add, with a very likely help from Russian troops.
This war is very different from 2014, where militias were extremely outnumbered and Ukrainian army was performing much worse than today. 
On a general note, we don't have to look for parallels in history. Maybe Ukrainian army is making same mistake like in 2014 or maybe it is not. I will not play smart and claim either. Many people here claimed that Balakleya-Izyum operation was a genious trap set by Russians and it turned that it wasn't in the end. I don't have a problem admitting that i am wrong. I actually would like that. Also, this doesn't mean that i think Russians will lose the war. For the record.

zorobabel wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:

GarryB wrote:
You mentioned allied forces repelling attacks against Liman multiple times... so what exactly the problem... let them fixate on that place and lose men and material trying to take it... this is snake island all over again...

That works both ways, unless you think that Ukrainians are shooting confetti. Russian forces deployed there are in a semi-encircled positions and i would assume their losses will grow substantially. Also Ukrainians can hit supply lines from Kremennaya now.

Reports from allied forces in Liman say they are taking heavy losses. So the argument that this is a meat grinder for UA forces is so absurd as to not acknowledge.

Source that they're taking heavy losses? AFAIK BARS is dishing out far more damage than its taking, but its not reinforced much. Thats the problem, not the losses.

If the russians withdraw from liman, I really hope its just liman and they fight for every km of territory. I've lost hope in any russian counterattack, and I mean an actual counteracttack aimed at retaking ground, not just bombing the lost ground. The reason for this, is that the russians didn't counterattack at kupyansk or izyum or visokopolye. It already predictable.

Basically russian generals' modus operandi is:
place token forces->retreat->bomb advancing enemy to smithereens>place token forces->repeat

This keeps on repeating, the ukrainians take heavy losses, but it doesn't matter.

A wise men seeing something he does not understands, sits quiet, observes, and tries to get a point.

I was skeptical until the end regarding izyum and volchansk falling. Its just that theres barely any actually GOOD news on the front. My expectations have dropped to rock bottom.

ALAMO wrote:
Well, it is quite hard for most of us, as we keep in mind that in the last 30 years, Russian army carried out several objectively big and complicated wars.
The amount of combined experience is I would say the biggest on the planet.
Plus some things obviously don't adds up just from the beginning. A wise men seeing something he does not understands, sits quiet, observes, and tries to get a point.
While the stupids are running like madmen shouting about treason, incompetence, and rage.
It is everyone's own choice who he wants to be.

Let's see. First Chechen war was a large **** up. Second Chechen war they won with great human casualties. Georgian war was a three day raid against greatly outnumbered enemy. Syria is completely different situation. Maybe call it intervention with RuAF carrying major burden and some ground forces helping Syrians fight. 
This war is on completely other level and army didn't perform bad. But keeping the numbers deployed so low just doesn't make sense in some situations. This would be one example.
In general, soldiers in the field perform admirably and competently.
Let's not forget that militias are fighting for over 7 months now, with very limited rotation. Some units in LNR have been fighting with no rest for almost whole time. It is normal that fatigue will kick in at some point.

caveat emptor wrote:
Smashed from several directions with troops that would be not readily available if they didn't withdraw from the north. And i would add, with a very likely help from Russian troops.
This war is very different from 2014, where militias were extremely outnumbered and Ukrainian army was performing much worse than today. 
On a general note, we don't have to look for parallels in history. Maybe Ukrainian army is making same mistake like in 2014 or maybe it is not. I will not play smart and claim either. Many people here claimed that Balakleya-Izyum operation was a genious trap set by Russians and it turned that it wasn't in the end. I don't have a problem admitting that i am wrong. I actually would like that. Also, this doesn't mean that i think Russians will lose the war. For the record.

Actually, they have been smashed by the Doneck garrison, which was withdrawn from the city in a quite desperate attempt to break the advancing Ukrainians.
Balakleya-Izum was a brilliant Russkie operation, and we can judge that only after things cleared out.
An area that was not defended, having just some covering forces totaling maybe 900-1000 soldiers.
Russkie not only withdrew all of them in an organized manner but were able to establish solid defence positions after.
The losses inflicted to Ukros are bloody insane, the whole Ukro TG was crying the river over that.
Even the biggest propagandists brought to light the matter of enormous human and material loses for some irrelevant gains.
And that was not the Russkie propaganda, but the whining of guys like Ponomarenko.
If they were claiming "thousands of dead", imagine the real scale.
And that was something happening just after the Cherson disaster, the Zaporozhe disaster, and the regular meat grinder in Donbas.
I was asking about the approaches to Liman cadres, have you watched them?
The whole territory is scattered with wrecked Ukro technicals. Wonder if those are same as common as mushrooms now there.
We know that there will be no more serious supplies. There is nothing left. There will be no tanks, no APCs. Italy was ceasing the supplies regularly for the last two months and will speed up the ceasing, if we can call it that way.

caveat emptor wrote:
Let's see. First Chechen war was a large **** up. Second Chechen war they won with great human casualties. Georgian war was a three day raid against greatly outnumbered enemy. Syria is completely different situation. Maybe call it intervention with RuAF carrying major burden and some ground forces helping Syrians fight. 

You are again spreading obvious bullshit that brings a question of how incompetent you really are while hiding that with nice wording.
No, Georgian war was not a three-day war against the outnumbered enemy.
It was an 8 days war, where the Russkie were seriously outnumbered until they have broken the neck of Georgians, so the numbers became irrelevant.
Stating the shit like that you expect someone to take you seriously later?
The first Chechen war was de facto second already and was as good as it could have been, while carried by a country on the edge of further dissolution and collapse.

By my source and judging by the noise , it's basically a lost cause. https://t.me/Slavyangrad/10520

At the end of the day Russia is an empire
. And empires are very hard to figure out. Russia is jumping into the nuclear blackmail propaganda trap that the US set up for it, with both feet.

The US has an opportunity to set off some nuclear propaganda device and it will be able to say Russia did it because it was losing. All for what? Because Russia had no contingency troops or equipment on the ready ?

I was only pessimistic about Russia winning the war was because  of the sudden territory loss and no explanation as to why it happened.  Than kyiv report said over 10,000 of their troops died and when Russia broke the dam they divided ukraines troops by using their own territory and environment against them like they know more about Ukraine than the Ukrainians do themselves that it had to force the other group to take a long detour and the group being trapped with the Russians since they can't retreat because of the dam dividing them. So plan B is make life hell for the euros and Ukraine economically along with sending 300k reserves. If somehow Ukraine is still intact and we cant forget about putin signing the bill for 150k more active duty troops which would bring the number to 1,150,000 active duty troops so at this point there is no denying there is a possible plan C if plan B does not work out where Ukraine will be fighting troops that have alot of experience and can be using more modern equipment. Plan D is to nuke ukraine since I hear that Russian troops are taking anti-radiation  pills. But what sucks about plan D is that Ukraine will become un-inhabitable and neither side could use the country for its resources to fuel their own economy, but it will prevent Ukraine from being a future NATO country with nuclear weapons closer to Russias borders. But let's hope plan D does not happen because that is like throwing the towel in. I know Russia can't use the entire 1,150,000 troops for Ukraine because they have other areas of interest that need protection, but we do know Ukraine now is debatable in being in the top 10 or top 5 land forces in the world and Russia can't use their active duty full force because their country is big to protect. Even if it comes to plan D there's no shame in it because I doubt other countries are capable of doing the same shit with so many handicaps like sanctions and.using your full force.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
Oh my friend, I am just saying what they can do. The active russian reserves are equipped enough and have enough numbers to force Ukraine back close to their starting positions...

Unless you are telling me I am wrong and those uncommitted reserves do not have the strength to push Ukraine back...I do believe a sudden influx of tens of thousands of additional russian troops would stabilize that frontline given how they have performed.

My suggestion is based on current russian force performances, so I must ask.

It is ridiculous to claim such things, when it clear that Ukraine is just on spot where the US and NATO is trying to fight Russia. You treat it as some kind of regional isolated event where Russia could do whatever it wants with no after game. Just throw on the problem hundred thousands of troops and WW3 is won?

You completely ignore or more precisely have no ability or knowledge to understand, that mobilization you would like to see has serious economical and and political consequences for Russia and Russians far larger than all western sanctions combined!

If Russia declares war and let's just say it overcommits troops, weapons, ammunition to one single spot, then NATO would just spark another conflict with more idiots like Georgians and Ukrainians that will dare to be the next suicide squad. We have plenty of scenarios and candidates that will fill that role. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Poland, Pre-baltics, Finland and who the hell knows how many plans NATO has. They are all small but if combined they are just like Zergs, small bites here and there on top of that you have war-like economical conditions burning daily hundreds of millions of Rubles.

The committed troops right now are sustainable from economic point of view. The situation also is favorable as the russian citizens are unaffected by it and will sustain their support as long these conditions are met.

The russians are still running the meat grinder and the Ukrops are still following the doctrine die to the last Ukrainian. So, this is a sustainable situation.
We have plenty of doomers on this forum with one case of wondrous rehabilitation amongst them.

Don't make it out as if Russia is losing the war, because you are just lying to yourself. If you have anything valuable to add to the war effort go and talk to the Russian MoD.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
Why did you feel the need to white knight? and try to insult me when the situation on the ground is clear as day?.

Ooooooh right you are a fanboy, nevermind.

White Knight? You are still to arrogant to admit your mistakes?
Go ahead, tell me the "clear as sky" situation on the ground! Is Kokaina winning? Russia losing?
Don't make another mistake to let us believe like you actually give a flying **** about Russian troops, Russia or any lifes lost in this pre-WW3 scenario. For you it is just news and some reason to have beef on the internet. It doesn't affect you, yet.

I've said it to our Serbian Cevapcici lovers and I will tell it to you, too - if you want to insult me, then please, get little bit creative. This "fanboy" here and "fanboy" there is getting old. Over 2 Million years of evolution to create the brain with high cognitive capacity due to billions of neurons, just do us all a favor and use at least some of them.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
LoL me saying Himars was superior to smerch in those specific areas pissed you off that much? that's sad as hell buddy. I wasn't wrong about those things, You sure do love throwing your hissy fits huh, so I'll say it again HIMARS is superior to smerch in terms of accuracy and mobility.

Your claims of HIMARS having superior maneuverability just due to two factors out of half a dozen is amusing.
Mobility/Maneuverability is a collective term, which defines a set of parameters and capabilities that you ignored all, but those it is better in.
It is faster on paved roads, sure, but in war conditions you only use paved roads in areas where your enemy has no capability to reach you, then it needs to go off-road. It is inferior in off-road capability due to it's design of much lower ground profile (belly) along with thinner and smaller tires. This lowers it's spectrum of unpaved paths it can take, which results in limited options to get to every geographical advantage that might be available. The range of HIMARS is inferior and it can cover along with supply vehicles with almost equal off-road capability. The precision was already discussed and proven to be wrong. You can ignore all information you don't like as much as you want, but Smerch' has since years precision guided rockets with higher calibre, more destructive power and just as precise.

Feel free to actually provide side-by-side compression that supports your claims.

ALAMO wrote:Balakleya-Izum was a brilliant Russkie operation, and we can judge that only after things cleared out.
An area that was not defended, having just some covering forces totaling maybe 900-1000 soldiers.
Russkie not only withdrew all of them in an organized manner but were able to establish solid defence positions after.
The losses inflicted to Ukros are bloody insane, the whole Ukro TG was crying the river over that.
Even the biggest propagandists brought to light the matter of enormous human and material loses for some irrelevant gains.
And that was not the Russkie propaganda, but the whining of guys like Ponomarenko.
If they were claiming "thousands of dead", imagine the real scale.
And that was something happening just after the Cherson disaster, the Zaporozhe disaster, and the regular meat grinder in Donbas.
I was asking about the approaches to Liman cadres, have you watched them?
The whole territory is scattered with wrecked Ukro technicals. Wonder if those are same as common as mushrooms now there.
We know that there will be no more serious supplies. There is nothing left. There will be no tanks, no APCs. Italy was ceasing the supplies regularly for the last two months and will speed up the ceasing, if we can call it that way.

Kherson was a big and clear rout we agree on that. In regards to Lyman, units on the ground say that they are taking pretty heavy losses. I don't know what to make of Izyum-Balakleya. Withdrawal part was done pretty good, but initial stage was that maybe it was a gamble by Russians to begin with. To try and hold such a big area with so little troops.

Backman wrote:By my source and judging by the noise , it's basically a lost cause. https://t.me/Slavyangrad/10520

Wow, terrible situation. UA are deep in a flanking maneuver, apparently unopposed in these villages.

Werewolf wrote:
Don't make it out as if Russia is losing the war, because you are just lying to yourself. If you have anything valuable to add to the war effort go and talk to the Russian MoD.

It is not his fault. Let me be the devils advocate.
He is not quite bright, which was proven in public multiple times.
What is even worse, he sticks to the English narrative, as he speaks no other bloody language than Murican, having issues with understanding English either
Just take a look at the "questions" and "answers" spread at Yahoo or Google charts.
Lurk into Quora.
You will stand with your jaw dropped. T
hey are really talking that shit, all way long.
"Devastating Ukrainian offensive" is the last hashtag.
Those morons still didn't get, that the whole "offensive" was claiming the territory left by the Russian army days earlier and the Ukrs are so fuckin' brilliant that it took them days to figure that out.
They were fighting fog&mirrors.
And carried a twitter driven offensive.
Yet what was real, was a dozen or so thousand corpses left, and making a smog out of a burning technicals that could have been seen from Belogrod.
Judging on that, de facto most of the people would get some reversed picture.

caveat emptor wrote:Smashed from several directions with troops that would be not readily available if they didn't withdraw from the north. And i would add, with a very likely help from Russian troops.
This war is very different from 2014, where militias were extremely outnumbered and Ukrainian army was performing much worse than today. 
On a general note, we don't have to look for parallels in history. Maybe Ukrainian army is making same mistake like in 2014 or maybe it is not. I will not play smart and claim either. Many people here claimed that Balakleya-Izyum operation was a genious trap set by Russians and it turned that it wasn't in the end. I don't have a problem admitting that i am wrong. I actually would like that. Also, this doesn't mean that i think Russians will lose the war. For the record.

So you are basically saying you are worthless noise and eventually right but for the wrong reasons. We had already figured it out you geniuses

I believe ALAMO was asking what the roads and trees look like

That's what it looks like

VSU is fucking deep into settlements around Liman basically cutting it off

How could this be intentional? The entire area is a staging point for Slavyansk, Seversk, and Lisichansk

If it's intentional, it means they are throwing away months of hard earned gains , taken with blood

So how could it be intentional? What grand plan is this?

How can you take the rest of Donbass losing the north of Kharkov?

Ukros have the initiative and we are bogged in donbass

97.81% voted for the entry of the Zaporozhye region into Russia

97.93% voted for the entry of the LPR into the Russian Federation

96.81% voted for the entry of Kherson into the Russian Federation.

98.69% voted for the entry of DPR into the Russian Federation.

ALAMO wrote:
You are again spreading obvious bullshit that brings a question of how incompetent you really are while hiding that with nice wording.
No, Georgian war was not a three-day war against the outnumbered enemy.
It was an 8 days war, where the Russkie were seriously outnumbered until they have broken the neck of Georgians, so the numbers became irrelevant.
Stating the shit like that you expect someone to take you seriously later?

Competent? I'm not military officer to claim to be competent about something. As i suspect neither are you. 
As for Georgian war,  Russians were outnumbered in the beginning but managed to keep the tunnel. When their reinforcements arrived though the tunnel, war was over. 
It turned into mop up. Georgian army collapsed. They did stop on 8th day. But that is just nitpicking from your side. 
If you are going to bust my balls for 3 or 4 days, lets just mention that there was almost 3 years window between Chechen wars. First was was lost and there's no denying it. 
They were better prepared for Second war, but still took pretty heavy losses.

LMFS wrote: 97.81% voted for the entry of the Zaporozhye region into Russia

97.93% voted for the entry of the LPR into the Russian Federation

96.81% voted for the entry of Kherson into the Russian Federation.

98.69% voted for the entry of DPR into the Russian Federation.

Hope none of them voted in Krasny Liman. The Nazis are coming.

Spare us this nonsense, because you are just presenting yourself in a worsening light.
No, Russkie never achieved a numerical advantage over Georgians, even if the whole 58th Army would have been involved in the theatre.
So just stop, and go educate yourself or something.