Russian special military operation in Ukraine #23

flamming_python wrote:

Did Gerasimov tell you that?
Or was it Dvornikov who confided his plans to you?

They just walked out of bania you silly and will have some vodka.
Gerasimov won't tell anything to our friend, as he is still dead as our trusted Ukro sources told us 2 months ago.
But Dvornikov will surely share some secret plans with c_e.
Putin will join soon, at least his double. Just returned from a hospital where Shoigu rests after 4th heart attack.

thegopnik wrote:
If Ukrainians are dying like crazy why hasnt their momentum stopped. I guess heading to moscow is no longer a joke to laugh at next.

Because they still have some cannon fodder to be grinded.
It won't last for long, but will be nasty indeed.
And cease to use Twitter,by the way. Not 75% there is fake, but 95%,

Twitter full of claims of ukrainian forces storming donetsk airport now.

No no no, it is all true!
Don't follow the Kremlin!
They are not even in Peter and Moscow, but closing Vlad any moment!

Gee, how fucke#d up one must be, to spread this kind of nonsense?!?

ucmvulcan wrote:Not a defeatist, but just an innocent question.  Why doesn't Russia do a temporary troop surge of say up to 200,000 to drive the Ukes out of Donestks, take the rest of Zaprozhiye and liberate Kharkov, and simultaneously launch airstrikes to knock out Ukraine's government, intel, and military leadership, hit all bridges and rail junctions across the Dniepr and dielectrify the country?

So the collective west can lynch itself with its own hubris, of course. This isn't a war against the Ukraine but a war against NATO with the Ukraine used as a proxy force. Ending this war quickly would give an opening for the EU/US to 'save face' and back down from their sanctions regime whilst moving the Ukraine conflict to an ISIS style insurgency. 

The more mercenaries, neonazis and gullible conscripts that are killed now, the less likely such an insurgency becomes reality. Also, speeding up this operation and mobilizing russian conscripts gives the Banderites more soft targets to attack just like what happened in Kiev, with predictable results.

One good outcome of this shitshow is that the NATOists, 5th/6th columists and those generally lacking spine are casting off their camo cloaks and exposing themselves for all to see.  My ignore list has doubled in a few days, as life is just too short to worry about the yabbering of the clowns

I'll admit that I'm surprised about the size of the bag that is developing, but war has its surprises, thats the nature of the game.  The key point to note here is that the western flank of Russian-held territory was so lightly defended and that the Russians withdrew their forces at the first signs of the Ukie assault.  Russian troop losses thus far are negligible (almost zero dead-Russian war porn from Ukrorat socila media) and what ground units were mobilised in response have only been used to fight delaying actions and to assist with withdrawals such as the (now well publicised) Rosvgardia units from Balaklaya. Clealry the Russian general staff doesn't consider these areas worthy of defending against a large scale orc incursion, and one can only assume this is method in all of this.

The only real question in my mind is how far will Russia permit the Ukrotrash to advance until they hit solid defense lines?

The Oskol river forms a natural barrier to their westwards advance, so I'd expect that Russia will set up defenses to deny the Ukropi the ability to cross. Interesting that they seem to have withdrawn from western Kupyansk, but while they may withdraw civvies, i'd expect them to solidify on the eastern side. Pushing north to the Russian border makes litle sense as they will primarily be looking south to seek to disrupt Russian moves on Slavyansk, so expect only token probes in this direction.

Ukro have continued their southerly push towards Izyum and reached its outskirts, but I'd expect that finally reached the edge of the bag and will now receive some solid pushback.
Maps suggest that they have been pushed back from Horokhovatka with its bridge over the Oskol, and that would be an expected node for Russians to defend with vigour.

I'm interested to get some accurate estimates of Ukro troop numbers.  9k may have been the initial incursion, but by all accounts they are doubling down and pushing reinforcements into the breach.  Estimates of 50k sounds too high however. Any reliable numbers out there?

A Russian counterstroke is a given but when and where will it fall? I've seen nothing that makes me doubt that this offensive will end in disaster for the Ukrops. They are over-extended with exposed supply lines. Once they reach the limts of how far Russia will permit their expansion, the pushback will begin.

Interesting days ahead

JohninMK wrote:A clearer map

Yeah, thats a map I could believe in.  Rybar maps are just showing a large contested area centered around Izyum, no details, suggesting journalistic laziness or even outright pessimism.  Clearly unlikely as much of the area concerned is forested, and I can't believe that the Ukro intention of fast advance is going to slowly pick its way through forests on foot....  

Ukrops blocked in the west by the Oskol.  Russians holding east Kupyansk. Russians pulling back to defend Izyum and consolidate/concentrate defensive fire. Defending Horokhovatka to deny the Ukrops a river crossing.

Its a big bag in the making and wll challenge the Ukrpi supply & logistics.  It won't easy at all to supply there advance forces contesting Russian defense lines in an environment where they have no choice but to cede total control of the air.  Once the advances slow and the Ukopis pile up against Russian defense lines then the CAS will be able to find targets and lay down the cleaning flames accordingly

Edit: I won't however ignore a possibility that Russia may even choose to abandon izyum as well, though I think its unlikely. There has been many surprises thus far, and things haven't gone the way many of us expected. Clearly the Russian general staff are playing a long game here, and we simply don't know their gameplan...

Exposed: The vast pro-Ukrainian 'bot army' designed to influence Western policy makers

source

Researchers at the University of Adelaide have published a landmark paper on the activities of bot accounts on Twitter related to the conflict in Ukraine. These Australian findings are truly staggering – of 5.2 million tweets on the social media network from February 23 to March 8, between 60 to 80% were shared by fake accounts. What’s more, 90% of those posts were pro-Ukraine.

Plenty of them here in RDF...

Even though the Globalist Liberal influence is balls-deep up Australias arse, the truth sometimes leaks out. Kudos to those researchers in Adelaide, but don't expect yer grants to be renewed next year....