Russian special military operation in Ukraine #20

Does it look like HIMARS to you as well?

Serberus wrote:The moment I read “nato weapons from Serbia”…knew it was BS and either wankers trying to stir shit or uninformed people who have no business in being a “news source” even on TG being clueless.
Serbia will never arm a NATO puppet state or be a staging point for nato supplies, and if any idiotic pro west politician in Serbia tries, they know it would be the last thing they do.

I very much hope this is true.  I can't imagine why there are Serbs who wish to co-operate with a foreign military alliance that has proved itself to be nothing but hostile to the Serbian nation and people, and who, in conjunction with the US and the 4th Reich elites in the expansionist EU, are constantly working to undermine the Serbian state.  I guess there are traitors in every society that are happy to throw their countrymen under the bus in the pursuit of personal wealth and power, even at the cost of having to publicly suck on the Empires cock whenever commanded.

Regular wrote:

Does it look like HIMARS to you as well?

Does it matter?

Take it out. Take it out, and mark it a 0

Big_Gazza wrote:

Serberus wrote:The moment I read “nato weapons from Serbia”…knew it was BS and either wankers trying to stir shit or uninformed people who have no business in being a “news source” even on TG being clueless.
Serbia will never arm a NATO puppet state or be a staging point for nato supplies, and if any idiotic pro west politician in Serbia tries, they know it would be the last thing they do.

I very much hope this is true.  I can't imagine why there are Serbs who wish to co-operate with a foreign military alliance that has proved itself to be nothing but hostile to the Serbian nation and people, and who, in conjunction with the US and the 4th Reich elites in the expansionist EU,  are constantly working to undermine the Serbian state.  I guess there are traitors in every society that are happy to throw their countrymen under the bus in the pursuit of personal wealth and power, even at the cost of having to publicly suck on the Empires cock whenever commanded.

Dunno. I quite liked the theory about a Serb saboteur being responsible for the plane crashing

Good thing that other guy is not still here though, he would have had another meltdown. The one who went nuts about atheists on the site.

ALAMO wrote:

lyle6 wrote:......
1500 per year.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2013/07/08/cruise-missile-engine-manufacturing-localized-a25633

THat is a very old entry bro.
In March only, Novator increased employment by 500 people.
I will not make any judgments about the number, but they have switched for a semi-war production I guess.
Very same applies to the other suppliers, and we hear again ad again that new samples of precision guided weaponry is being presented. Each of those has its own production cap.

Think of it this way: Russia would not be chucking cruise missiles like they are firecrackers if they didn't have production lines warmed up and running smoothly

flamming_python wrote:Dunno. I quite liked the theory about a Serb saboteur being responsible for the plane crashing ...

With the way Ukrainian maintenance is these days you don't need saboteurs, you just need to sit back and wait for statistics to do it's thing, those Soviet planes ain't getting any younger

Also, I just love how despite their country being in the middle of literal war their planes still go around running guns for unrelated nations

Speaking of cruise missiles

Looks like Russia took out some high-profile targets with that attack on Vinnitsa

The colonel of the Ukrainian Air Force was destroyed

It became known that on July 14 Colonel of the Ukrainian Air Force Dmytro Burdiko was destroyed. Details are still unknown, but the date of its liquidation coincides with a missile attack on Vinnitsa, where the building where a meeting of Ukrainian aviation officers was held was hit.

The victim served as Acting Chief of Armaments of the Logistics Command of the Ukrainian Air Force.

Also:

High-precision long-range air-launched missiles in one of the buildings of an industrial enterprise in the city of Odessa destroyed a storage warehouse for Harpoon anti-ship missiles transferred to Ukraine by NATO countries — Russian Defense Ministry

PapaDragon wrote:Also, I just love how despite their country being in the middle of literal war their planes still go around running guns for unrelated nations

Business is Business PD

You have much to learn still about the Ukraine

PapaDragon wrote:
Think of it this way: Russia would not be chucking cruise missiles like they are firecrackers if they didn't have production lines warmed up and running smoothly

Spot on, especially given the evidence of so much 'stuff' being held back in reserve, presumably in case NATO tries something stupid.

Sorry for the size of this post bit this is an American guy whose posts really make sense and are worth reading. https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/07/

He started the last two weeks with this summary of Twitter posts from January. Pretty good predictions. The others following it. There are pictures/maps etc at the links.

The End of NATO, American Imperial Hegemony, and The Rebirth of A Multipolar World

It's appearing increasingly likely that the Russians are going to remedy the "strategic depth" issue they perceive in eastern Ukraine – and probably much sooner than later.

(Originally posted to Twitter on January 13, 2022 – screen shots posted below.)

As I have noted numerous times in recent months, Ukraine has but two options: accept their role as a buffer state between Russia and NATO, or be dismembered.  It would now seem they have eschewed the former, and therefore they will cease to persist as presently constituted.

That said, I am convinced Russia has no intention whatsoever to assimilate the entirety of Ukraine.  Rather, I expect them to destroy Ukrainian military capabilities, and to annex eastern Ukraine to the Dnieper River, thereby also establishing a land bridge to Crimea.

What will be the US/NATO response?  Well, I consider it 99.99% certain there will be no military response – none whatsoever.  There is no way in hell the Pentagon is going to risk having the myth of US military impregnability exposed in a futile attempt to help Ukraine.

The US will thump its chest, announce various "severe sanctions" (including excommunicating Russia from SWIFT), and also attempt to impose a blockade of Russian energy exports to Europe.  But this will fail, for the simple reason that Germany will not / cannot accede to it.

The US will command the world to cease exporting to Russia a long list of items.  Then a long parade of DC #ThinkTankMonkeys will make the rounds of the MSM news channels confidently guaranteeing the imminent destruction of the Russian economy and the end of the Putin era.

But most of the world will simply ignore the toothless US edicts.  Large portions of SWIFT volume will move to alternative platforms (already in place); trade settlement in USD will decrease dramatically, Nordstream2 will start delivering gas to Germany before next winter; US sanctions on Russia will prove utterly impotent; regional trade and currency blocs will rapidly gain market share, and the hard reality of a new era of multipolarity and the effective end of NATO and the once-mighty American empire will become undeniably apparent to all.

https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/07/the-end-of-nato-american-imperial.html

Thursday, July 14, 2022
Lessons Never Learned

As the collapse of the Mother of All Proxy Armies in Ukraine continues to accelerate, the #EmpireAtAllCosts ventriloquists have flapped Old Uncle Joe’s mouth to once again raise the spectre of war against Iran.

Of course, US war hawks and their Israeli counterparts have been itching to make war against Iran for decades.

In response to this repeated beating of the war drums, I have, on my Twitter feed over the past five years, repeatedly argued that launching an attack against Iran would result in a catastrophic defeat for the US military. I believe this for many reasons, foremost among them my long-held conviction that the aircraft carrier is an obsolete relic of a bygone era that will not survive a war against a peer or near-peer adversary.

That said, it just so happens that the largest and most expensive war-game exercise in Pentagon history tested the thesis back in 2002. It was a massive battle simulation code-named Millennium Challenge. The Pentagon spent a whopping 250 million dollars setting the whole thing up, and it consisted primarily of a carrier strike group escorting a large amphibious landing force into the Persian Gulf.

It even envisioned the “Blue Team” (US forces) employing battlefield technologies not yet available, but which were anticipated to be operational by 2007. The “Red Team” (enemy forces) was understood to represent Iran, and the Pentagon tapped retired Marine Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper to lead it.


Van Riper, however, did not act according to the expectations of the desk-jockey analysts in the Pentagon. Rather, he waited until the naval task force had transited the Strait of Hormuz, and then he launched salvos of land-based ballistic missiles, anti-ship missiles launched from low-flying planes and helicopters, and swarms of elusive “fast boats” against the flotilla of ships. This attack entirely overwhelmed the defense capabilities of the fleet, and in a matter of mere minutes, all nineteen ships in the task force had been sunk, along with their entire complement of 20,000 sailors and marines.

It was a total catastrophe – not to mention a shocking humiliation for Pentagon planners who had expended a quarter billion dollars setting up the elaborate exercise in the first place.

So, what did they do? Well, like a teenage boy playing war in a video game, they simply pressed the "reset" button, “refloated” the sunken ships, and then entered “cheat codes” into the simulation that guaranteed the Blue Team would win.

I kid you not. General Van Riper was outraged, and quit on the spot. Another more pliant general was assigned to take his place; the exercise proceeded “according to plan”; the Blue Team achieved a great and glorious victory over the “inferior forces” of the Red Team.

Van Riper summarized the debacle in succinct terms: "Nothing was learned from this. And a culture not willing to think hard and test itself does not augur well for the future."

Now here we are in 2022, and the #EmpireAtAllCosts fanatics are casting about desperately for what they imagine will be a “clean and easy victory” to help everyone forget about the humiliation of the proxy war gone awry in Ukraine.

The problem is that, while the US military is substantially weakened since its high-water mark of dominance in 2002, the Iranians are significantly more formidable in every category of asymmetric advantage Van Riper exploited in 2002 to sink an entire US fleet.

I’d like to think the desk jockeys at the Pentagon “learned their lesson”, but I’m confident they did not. And if the US attempts to make war against Iran at this late stage of the empire’s denouement, I expect the real-life results to be at least as disastrous as they were in simulation twenty years ago.

https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/07/lessons-never-learned.html

Other top posts

https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/07/playing-with-fire.html

https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/07/wunderwaffe-du-jour.html

This gem is in this post https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/07/destroying-mother-of-all-proxy-armies.html

I described the Russian strategy and tactics in a previous post:

Here is a brief summation of the Russian tactical approach to the Battle of the Donbass:

Step #1: Advance reconnaissance units (often in force, with dozens or hundreds of drones overhead) to assess the situation; draw fire; relay to commanders raw video and geo-coordinates.

Step #2: With target-correcting drone swarms overhead, relaying real-time strike video, proceed to savage the fortifications with towed and mobile artillery, Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (in gradations of strength and precision), and even horrific thermobaric munitions for particularly suitable targets.

Let smoke clear.

Repeat Step #1.

Still something moving there?

Repeat Step #2.

Repeat Step #1.

Dead bodies everywhere?

Step #3: Send in tanks and infantry to mop up.

Move to next series of fortifications.

And so on and so forth …

This is why Ukraine now suffers hundreds of battle deaths every single day. And why, for months, the Russians have suffered very few casualties – at least a 1 to 10 ratio – and quite likely much lower.

The artillery (with occasional air and precision missile strikes) is doing all the fighting.

Then there is this one

https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/07/the-united-states-could-not-win-and.html

Then this one https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/07/a-birds-eye-view-of-ukraine-war.html contains this

Indeed, they were so confident of the genius of their plan that they persuasively encouraged many hundreds of now-killed or captured NATO veterans to “share in the glory” of humiliating the Russians and bringing down the Putin regime once and for all.

They deluded themselves into believing the Russians lacked: strategic and logistical acumen, a sufficiently well-trained force, and – arguably the biggest miscalculation of all – sufficient stockpiles of ammo to conduct a protracted high-intensity conflict.

In short, I have come to believe US/NATO commanders actually persuaded themselves that this “Mother of All Proxy Armies” had an excellent chance to soundly whip the Russians in a battle situated in their own back yard.

In other words, they not only grossly underestimated their enemy, but they ignored centuries of history that they somehow convinced themselves had no relevance to their 21st century aspirations to defeat Russia militarily and take a great spoil of its resources.

But, as is now readily apparent to all objective, knowledgeable military analysts around the globe, the Ukrainian proxy army has been pulverized by a patient, methodical, and significantly outnumbered Russian force, using long-established Russian doctrines and tactics.

flamming_python wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:Also, I just love how despite their country being in the middle of literal war their planes still go around running guns for unrelated nations

Business is Business PD

You have much to learn still about the Ukraine

It was a private company Meridian who owned the plane and according to reports, the munitions they were transporting were Serbian, so it seems they were hired by Serbians.

Being a private company, they have nothing to do with the war in Ukraine, they only had 3 planes so if maintenance is bad with one, the rest will be the same.

Just Ukrainian "luck" I guess, nothing to do with this war, not sure why they would stop functioning during SMO, business is business and people still need to eat. I would rather see UA pilots doing any freelance work than being forced to do airlifts for weapons used in the war.

The American Embassy in Kiev stopped its work. The embassy building is closed and no employees are visible, eyewitnesses said.

Earlier, the US authorities appealed to its citizens to leave Ukraine. According to the diplomatic mission, the situation in Ukraine at the moment is assessed as extremely unstable. At the same time, the embassy believes that conditions may "sharply and suddenly deteriorate.

It also became known that the US consulate in Odessa stopped its work.

Apparently, the Americans know something and are preparing something and have evacuated in advance. The situation is very unclear. There are a lot of questions for the U.S. representatives that have not yet been answered.


-----

Maybe they will hit the Crimea bridge

Backman wrote:

mnztr wrote:Is Russia doing any low level supersonic passes at night to keep the enemy awake and afraid? Would be a cheap way to degrade the opposition

There's a video on telegram of a Hohol who is very close to an su 25 attack. The ordnance followed by the shriek of the jet is just crazy. The guy is scared nearly stiff. I'll try and find it

Any low level pass by a jet is CRAZY. when I was a small boy a Hawker Hunter did a low level pass from behind the crowd at an airshow, at just below supersonic, and we did not hear him coming. I still remember it vividly.

More on the Vinnitsa cruise missile attack

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/23396

The blow to the house of officers in Vinnitsa was delivered at the moment of the meeting of buyers and sellers of Western weapons.

Information appeared that the seller was 3 employees of MI6 and one employee of the French military intelligence, and the buyers were from Yemen, Lebanon, Palestine and Bahrain.

The host country was represented by intelligence officers of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, close to the head of the department, Kirill Budanov.

Buyers entered through the Chisinau airport from Bucharest and Warsaw, then by land road transport with the support of the official Moldovan authorities to the border.

At the time of the missile strike, 36 people were negotiating, 23 of whom died immediately, the rest are in critical condition and, most likely, will not live.

2 out of 3 cruise missiles hit right on target, one was partially destroyed at extremely low altitude by Ukrainian air defense, after which it fell on the city center in five parts, including killing civilians. This is certainly very sad. However, the decision to shoot down missiles on approach to the target was made by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, accurately understanding the prospects for such a decision. The satellite constellation of the United States and Great Britain captures the contrail from the anti-missiles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and has accurate data of objective control.

EDIT: After the attack showing a hit on each wing.

Here is fun thing about bridges: you can fix them

Also a fun thing about countries like Ukraine: you can trash them into non-existence


That bridge isn't just left defenceless and even in worse case scenario of it getting hit this is a massive modern superstructure not some tiny two bit Soviet prefab rail bridge (which still stay in place when hit)

You will need something way bigger than HIMARS or ATACMS to take Crimea bridge out of commission for longer than couple of months



This isn't about bridge, it's about the fact that Russia will be doing Odessa before year is out and warm-up has already started

PapaDragon wrote:
Here is fun thing about bridges: you can fix them

Also a fun thing about countries like Ukraine: you can trash them into non-existence


That bridge isn't just left defenceless and even in worse case scenario of it getting hit this is a massive modern superstructure not some tiny two bit Soviet prefab rail bridge (which still stay in place when hit)

You will need something way bigger than HIMARS or ATACMS to take Crimea bridge out of commission for longer than couple of months



This isn't about bridge, it's about the fact that Russia will be doing Odessa before year is out and warm-up has already started

Well, they are leaving for a reason

I'm not saying the bridge would be destroyed, but would bring a response that is harsher than what we saw in the last 2 weeks eliminating some colonel and intelligence people along with dozens of other sites

This would probably invite kalibr to the heads of local decision making centers, and it would increase from there

Andrei Martyanov video which debunks Binkov video about Russian air force performance.

Unfortunately, many people don't watch his videos because he is going into the details which they simply don't understand and rather choose shits like Binkov page.

Arkanghelsk wrote:Maybe they will hit the Crimea bridge

Meh, I'm far from convinced the Ukro have the capability. They would need ATACMS missiles with 300km range (do they have any?), and locate their few HIMARS to the edge of their controlled territory in the South, somewhere like Zaporizhzhia city (which is right on the 300km range limit).

Problem is they will be highly exposed to Russian interdiction and counter battery attacks, plus their chances of penetrating will be small as unlike their short-range missile packs, fired at the tail end of a general MLRS barrage, the long-range ATACMS will need to run the gauntlet of Crimean missile defenses without the cover provided by Urugan/Smerch "decoys".

I'm kinda of hoping they try it. Best result is that the ATACMS salvo is entirely defeated, which would be a nice poke in the eye to the relentless sales campaign by LM, and a PR disaster for Kiev. Worst case a missiles gets through, but the Crimean bridge is a big structure and it won't fall from a pissy little rocket strike. The impact on the Russian population would be galvanizing and would further solidify the support for demil/denaz of their HATO-controlled Orcish neighbour.

ucmvulcan wrote:As an American, allow me to be very cynical and disgusted by my country.  I don't think its Crimean Bridge.  Yes, they might attempt an attack on it.  My guess is that there is going to be some sort of chemical or biological weapon used in Kiev and Odessa and Russia is going to be blamed for it.  Why? Simple, it would follow the pattern we saw in Syria where every single time Assad almost got us to leave he would invariably "use a chemical weapon" or other "prohibited ordinance."  The jackoffs in Washington want escalation in this, but they need to sell it.  Crimean Bridge would upset Russians, but most Americans wouldn't care.  Staging a chemical weapon attack in Kiev or Odessa and blaming Russia for it? That would fire up the rage machine and the 24/7 news cycle and social media would run with that story until the dream of American forces in Ukraine and a shooting war with the bad ole Rooskies came to fruition.  The worst part? I'd have to hear Toby Keith and Lee Greenwood again, and I really don't want that.  Yes, even worse than the nuclear exchange would be having to endure Toby Keith and Lee Greenwood's "music."

I'm not so sure, due to the blowback risk - ie other serious nations like China, India etc and the rest of global South seeing thru the obvious nonsense and realizing that the US is conducting bio-chem attacks.  The loss of international prestige would be catastrophic, especially at a time when global geopolitics and the power balance is shifting inexorably towards a multi-polar system where the West cannot so easily use its media machine to hide inconvenient truths and silence all dissent.  Much of the US and Eurotrash populations will probably get it as well, even if their respective media whores will obediently leap onto their Clients cocks and stat to ride them for all they are worth...

In any case, how will the US "escalate"?  Despite the bravado and trash-talking, the professionals in the pentagon want absolutely nothing to do with any expeditionary force being sent into Ukraine to fight Russians.   There is only one way that ends, and it means kissing your 401(k) goodbye since you won't be around to collect a dime of it...

While there are plenty of unhinged whackjobs in the neocon ranks who would sell their souls for a chance to smear Russia with a false-fag using bio-chem weapons, I think the (few) adults in the beltway will manage to constrain the neocon fukwitz and their fellow travelers. The potential for disaster is just so immense.

Well, it's a war. The Crimean bridge is a legitimate target.

Isos wrote:Well, it's a war. The Crimean bridge is a legitimate target.

It's Russian territory, that would be an act of war and entitle Russia to escalate it's special operation to an outright war against Ukraine.

Another HIMARS and another M 777 was captured within the last 24 hours.

This should explain why NATO has not send Patriot SAM to Ukraine.

Erk wrote:

Isos wrote:Well, it's a war. The Crimean bridge is a legitimate target.

It's Russian territory, that would be an act of war and entitle Russia to escalate it's special operation to an outright war against Ukraine.

It's already a war... stop being dumb.