Ispan wrote:Extense briefing today, with observation and analysis from different commentators, and some comments by myself, news and other stuff
Confirmed, a few hundred prisoners taken at Liman, and Ukrainian morale is cracking
YESTERDAY 23 May
Observations and reflections of a war correspondent on the Izyum front, very interesting and oozing sarcasm and black humor of a veteran soldier. I have taken some licenses with the translation to make it read better.
Judging by the news coming in today, the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to crumble. I predicted this a couple of days ago, but based on purely subjective feelings. Heavy losses, the failure of numerous counteroffensives promised by Arestovich and other Ukrainian asshole politicians, constantly being under fire from Russian artillery, missile systems and aircraft, ultimately, should lead to the complete exhaustion of Ukrainian troops.
Despite the fact that the Ukrainian army has numerous forces on the Donetsk front, and fortified areas and general geography contribute to long-term defense, the above factors cause terrible war fatigue. I know for myself how unpleasant it is when several times a day they announce an alert of missile attackye, and the enemy's cannon and rocket artillery do not allow you to relax, what to say about what the enemy must suffer
The air defense system saves us from the danger of missiles, but after such a warning (if we have one at all), we have to collect the remains of our less fortunate comrades in boxes.
The collapse of the Ukrainian defensive line in the Severodonetsk area does not yet mean victory in the war, but it will be a very hard blow both to the Ukrainian Forces themselves and to the national myth about the developing war against Russia, in which Ukraine, if not wins, then at least does not lose.
Many people are rightly interested in what is happening on the border of the Kharkov and Belgorod regions, where the Ukrainian army has been making counteroffensive attempts for 2 weeks. In the settlement of Ternovaya (a village in the Kharkiv region), the capture of which Kiev reported several times, the Ukrainians attacked today once again, with forces up to a rifle company in armored. As expected, the attack was stopped, the enemy lost a couple of dozen dead and wounded soldiers and went home.
The enemy's abandonment of the city of Svitlodarsk without a fight indicates that the entire defensive line in the Donbas is beginning to crumble. Once again, I would like to reproach those who demanded swift cavalry charges and were outraged that the offensive is going slowly. As I wrote, the general situation is not a Verdun of the 1916 year (at least for the Russian army).
The tactics of crushing the enemy's troops turned out to be correct. Heavy losses and endless attacks had a very significant impact on the morale of the Ukrainian army, and the bluster of the Kiev authorities about peremoga
(Translator's note: "peremoga" in Ukrainian: victoria. Translated into human: fantasy, delirium)
they further demoralized the Ukrainian soldiers, who feel that the war is going badly in their guts (if their guts have not already been scattered on the asphalt) and see the losses they suffer by counting the graves of their comrades.
Now the enemy will probably try to establish itself in the fortified Slavyano-Kramatorsk area so that the Kharkov-Sumy group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has time to demonstrate at least some success in its widely announced offensive operation (so far, this group of troops is unsuccessful).
The liberation of Svitlodarsk is a vivid example of how troops should act under the threat of encirclement. In fact, the Ukrainians left the city without a fight, around which fortifications were built for seven years after the Debaltsevo "peremoga".
They completed the combat mission to the end and evacuated to save people's lives. Not as flashy as the Azov fighters did in Mariupol, but also very brave and timely.
The Severodonetsk and Lisichansk garrisons should pay attention to the experience of their southern neighbors.
TODAY 24 May - General situation -12:00 hours - Igor Strelkov
After the entire Donetsk group could not be surrounded, the command of the Russian troops and the Armed Forces of the LDNR (it is, of course, united) made a forced decision to "expel" the enemy from the Donbass. The main efforts were transferred from the Slavyansk-Barvenkovsky direction to Krasny Liman and Severodonetsk-Lisichank, as well as to the Svitlodarsk and Avdeyevka arc. Due to the fact that parts of the Russian Armed Forces, the LDNR Armed Forces and the Wagner group managed to break through the front near Popasna and take the city, the offensive is developing slowly, but with relative success. Apparently, the Ukrainian command began to withdraw troops from the "pockets" formed in the Liman and Severodonetsk-Lisichansk area.
In particular, the enemy abandons his heavily fortified outpost in the Zolotoe-Orekhovo area (southeast of Lisichansk), which is already threatened with encirclement, and also gradually (fighting) retreats to Severodonetsk, abandons (or has already left) from Svitlodarsk. Ukrainian troops withdrew also with rearguard actions) from the Liman area
Apparently, the main line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has now been moved to the Seversk – Bakhmut (Artemovsk) – Soledar line, and the formed salient will soon be evacuated. At the same time, the enemy continues to cling to all these points by the forces of those units and formations that are on the front line there and only stopped sending them reserves to save them for future battles, avoiding exposing them to concentrated artillery and Russian aircraft attacks on the "pockets".
In addition, according to local reports, enemy resistance has noticeably weakened in the area north of Avdeyevka. Yesterday, the units of the DPR Armed Forces arrived on the northern outskirts of Avdeyevka, reaching the railway line on the outskirts of the city, but they have not yet entered the development. The enemy has stopped fighting hard for every position, although his artillery continues to fire massively and accurately.
"Heavy fighting is taking place in the area of Avdeyevka, Gorlovka and Mayrinka against the forces of Ukraine" - Basurin, the spokesman of the DPR militia,
13:00 Avdeyevka - Cassad
Basurin announced that they would not storm Avdeyevka head-on, but would bypass and block it. The right decision. Hitting the fortified area of Avdiivka is a dubious decision. It is much more promising to bypass Avdiivka from the north, gradually breaking through the enemy's defenses in the direction of the Orlovka-Avdiivka highway in order to deprive the enemy of supply channels.
Note: Apparently after four score attacks rejected yesterday and another one this morning, it has been wisely decided that it is better to flank the population and bag it while still hammering with artillery and aviation.
14:25 - Cassad
About the situation in the Artyomovsk area.
1. Despite some panic statements in Ukrainian chat rooms about the assault on Artemivsk, the city has not yet been stormed. Russian troops are 15-20 kilometers from the city, which is already within range of Russian artillery, in addition to occasional rocket attacks. So far, shelling is being carried out against personnel and armored concentrations and fortifications.
2. The road from Artemivsk to Lisichansk has not yet been physically cut off, but north of Soledar it is already under partial fire control of the Russian Armed Forces, which undoubtedly affects the process of supplying the Severodonetsk group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The command of the Ukrainian army has not given an order to withdraw from Severodonetsk, following the example of Svitlodarsk - There is a high probability that part of the group will sacrifice itself in the same way as the Mariupol group sacrificed itself.
3. As for the advance to Artemovsk, our troops have not yet taken Pilipchatino. But to the northwest, the fighting is already close to the outskirts of Soledar. Also today, we received reports that our troops have taken Vozrozhdenie and Roti (there are no photos and videos yet).
Note: Apparently after four score attacks rejected yesterday and another one this morning, it has been wisely decided that it is better to flank the population and bag it while still hammering with artillery and aviation.
Detailed map of how things are developing in the East direction now:
– As a result of the offensive west of Popasnaya, the Allied forces cut off the Vakhmut-Lisichansk route;
- - Forcing the armed forces of Ukraine to withdraw from Svetlodarsk, the Allied forces surrounded the Mironovskoye reservoir, occupied the village of Vidrogennya and found themselves less than 15 km from Bakhmut (Artemovsk);
- In the North, the Allied forces are developing an assault on Liman
Russian troops with the support of artillery and aviation continue to storm Krasny Liman in the DPR. The advance is substantial: more than half of the city is occupied, and Ukrainian forces are gradually retreating into the southern part of the city.
Initial information about hundreds of captured soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is confirmed.
"Prisoners of the 79 Amphibious Assault Brigade, 24 Mechanized Brigade, 128 Mountain Assault Brigade and a large number of territorial. There are also reports of captured Nazis from the national battalion "Donbass".
There is no exact number yet, but it is actually close to 500. At least more than 200 have already been sent to places of detention, and even more than those who have not yet been handed over," our comrades report from the place.
The Battle for Krasny Liman
18:00 on May 24, 2022
Videos of the artillery preparation
1-On the morning of May 23, the Allied forces began the assault on Liman: Both sides had been preparing for the siege of the city. The Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out provocations, blew up bridges and mined infrastructure facilities, and the Russian Armed Forces cleared the forested areas and brought in reserves.
2 - Allied troops entered the city from the settlements of Drobyshevo and Stavki. In the course of the day, the northern districts of Lima were liberated.
3 - On May 24, the Zeleny Klin microdistrict was taken. The Ukrainian Armed Forces were driven out of the adjacent forests in the direction of Shchurovo, where fighting is also now taking place
4-Fierce battles are being fought on Independence Street (formerly Frunze), where the Liman administrative area is located. The main defensive stronghold of the Ukrainian army is based on the railway complex and the industrial zone of the station
5-Enemy artillery is cannonading from its positions in the mountains of gypsum deposits near the settlement of Raygorodok.
21:45 hours - war correspondent Yuri Kotenok
Russian troops are advancing on the boundaries of the city of Krasny Liman, suppressing the enemy's pockets of resistance, the actions of which show a sense of doom. Reinforcements cannot arrive, and the defense of the city given the advance of the Russian army is meaningless.
In the afternoon scattered enemy groups tried to respond in the hangar area, but this fire is ineffective, the Ukrainian firing positions are soon eliminated.
The prisoners say that the commanders of individual units of the Ukrainian army in the Liman area are tasked with breaking through in the direction of Slavyansk, where they will meet the rest of the Ukrainian forces.
Morale in the Ukrainian units is depressed. The commanders see no prospects for continuing resistance in conditions where the strong points are isolated from the main defense forces, deprived of communication and control.
Summary of the day May 24 - Colonel Cassad (Boris Rozhin)
Note: my comments in italics
Today, the entire Svitlodarsk arch collapsed. The fortified front that existed for 7 years disappeared in 1 day. The troops liberated Svitlodarsk and Luhansk. The enemy still has Novoluganskoye, but there are signs of preparations for further troop withdrawal. The enemy also lost the villages of Vozrozhdenie and Roty. Artemivsk is 15-20 kilometers away.
(excellent news, one of the strongest fortified positions of the Donbass front has fallen without a fight, own and civilian lives are saved and by eliminating this salient the front is shortened which frees forces for other missions)
There is no assault on the city yet, although the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near the city are already being shelled by our artillery. The enemy is preparing the city for defense, and is also trying to hold on to Pilipchatino (bad, the advance has stopped here, although it seems that one has the upper hand), preparing to retreat to Pokrovsky, where they are preparing for a longer defense.
(Artemovsk will be a tough nut to crack, because the famous salt mines make it possible to protect ammunition and weapons depots from shelling)
The fighting continued on Novaya Kamenka, Stryapovka and in the direction of Yakovlevka. There is no assault on Soledar yet. The road north of Soledar is being shelled more and more by artillery. The enemy recognizes the supply problems, but continues to use the Soledar-Lisichansk highway.
(good news, the supply line of the Lisichansk group is getting more and more precarious)
The DPR army announced that it will not assault Avdiivka head-on, but will occupy it by bypassing and blocking Avdiivka. Now fighting is taking place in the area of Kamenka, Novselovka-2 and Krasnogorovka. Fighting is also continuing on the outskirts of New York.
(bad news, failure in the assault on Avdeyevka and fighting in the same places for days, if not weeks, indicating that the Ukrainians counterattack)
The clearing of Kamyshevakha and fighting on the southern outskirts of Zolotoye continues. Fighting is also continuing in Toshkovka. It is reported that our troops occupied Lipoyo. The enemy's position in the Gorsko-Zolotoye fortified area worsened again.
(Toshkovka bad news, the resistance in this population is very fierce, it should have been taken by now, the other is good, a pocket is forming in Zolotoye)
Fighting continues on the outskirts of the city. The enemy also reports the resumption of intense fighting near Belogorovka, implying that the Russian Armed Forces have accumulated forces across the Seversky Donets River to resume fighting for the village. The loss of Belogorovka threatens to quickly isolate Severdonetsk and Lisichansk from the main group.
(this confirms that the Russians really did not suffer so many losses in the passage of the river and had managed to establish a bridgehead, but the lack of news these days indicated that consolidating and reinforcing the bridgehead took time.)
During the day, the battles for Krasny Liman continued. More than half of the city has been liberated. The enemy suffered heavy losses in killed and prisoners. We can expect that the remnants of the Ukrainian forces in Krasny Liman will soon retreat to the other side of the Seversky Donets River. Most likely, Krasny Liman will be taken within 1-3 days.
(it seems that the forces at Liman were greater than the estimated thousand men. I don't know how they will be able to retreat to the other side of the river if the bridges have been blown up, although soldiers can still cross on foot through the wreckage)
Fighting continued in the area of Kamyshevakha, Dolgenky and Kurulka. The enemy notes that the Russian Armed Forces are now accumulating forces in this direction to develop the offensive (20 thousand men). Attempts at counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the flank of the Izyum group were unsuccessful.
(the fact that as in the front of Zaporozhye-Donetsk progress has been stopped for weeks in a line of people without any natural obstacle, and the fighting is fierce indicates two things: the lack of strength to break the front, and the large number of troops and material that the enemy has sent these two critical points, to avoid the siege of the bag of Donetsk)
The fighting continued on the LazachayaLopan, Liptsy, Ternovaya, Rubezhnoye lines. In general, there are predominant trends towards stabilization in a struggle of positions.
10. Marinka, Zaporozhe, Ugledar, Nikolaevand Odessa, no novelty.
In the medium term, it is expected to intensify military operations in the Zaporozhe and Nikolayev directions, as well as new attempts by Ukraine to attack the island of Zmeiny.
Other news and reports
Photos of the fields filled with funnels of shells in the Kharkov region
Reports of casualties and morale of the Ukrainian army
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost 40-60% of their trained personnel, reservists are being recruited to replace them without proper selection, and morale is falling. Only 40% of the fighters have bulletproof vests, and every second person received a helmet. This became known from a Ukrainian reference obtained (and translated) by Russian intelligence.
The report, written to the deputy head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yevhen Moisyuk, says that recruits are deceived, they are assured: they will serve in territorial defense. And when they enter the army they are inadequate. As a result, 30% of Ukrainian soldiers are unfit for service.
Another of the problems - the lack of instructions for the soldiers, the mastery of the air of Russian aviation, losses from shelling and lack of ammunition. Separately, they report the "uncertainty" in their ability to complete the task and the probable "numerical advantage" of the Russian troops
Collective insubordination: soldiers of another Ukrainian brigade refuse to fight
Every day, the Ukrainian army is increasingly refusing to enter the battlefield unarmed against the cannons and howitzers of the Russian Armed Forces. Elements of several brigades have videotaped protests and refuse to go to the front. A group of mutineers from the 115th Territorial Brigade has already been arrested for desertion.
Note: Today the spokesman of the Donetsk militia reported that over the past 4 days, 50 paratroopers have joined our ranks in the Gorlovka area and two platoons of the 115th Brigade dropped their weapons and deserted in the Avdeyevka area.
Servicemen of the 71st Jaeger Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were sent to the front without fire support. Then the soldiers considered the order "criminal" and abandoned their positions.
"Armed only with rifles, we have to resist the cannons, the rockets, the mortars. No one is helping us, we have no heavy weapons, we have nothing. How can we fight for a country that doesn't care about us?", says a fighter
"We don't want to go to the meat grinder! We have no tanks, no armor, no guns," complains another.
At the end of the appeal, the soldiers added that they have only a couple of dozen mortars, that half of them do not work.
Postscript: So far the riots have occurred in the following units
58th motorized infantry brigade
115th territorial brigade
25th airborne brigade
79th Airborne Assault Brigade
71st Jaeger Brigade
And today the parliament of Ukraine had to withdraw before the protests the bill to authorize officers to summary executions to avoid escapes and surrenders.
Statements by Defense Minister Shoigu
Shoigu took part in a meeting of the Council of Defense Ministers of the CSTO, the parties discussed the situation in the area of responsibility of the organization;
The situation in the Eastern European region has significantly worsened;
The United States has taken a course to completely dismantle the existing international security architecture;
The US research on biological programs in Ukraine was carried out secretly, in violation of international obligations;
Fearing the defeat of the Ukrainian troops, the West urgently organized the supply of weapons;
The number of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine has exceeded six thousand people, military advisers and mercenaries are being sent to the country;
The West refuses to recognize the numerous facts of torture and brutal murders of Russian prisoners of war;
Russian troops, unlike the Ukrainian Armed Forces, do not attack civilian infrastructure where civilians may be located;
The special operation in Ukraine will continue until the tasks are fully completed, despite the sanctions and large-scale assistance to Kiev from the West;
There is a real threat that Ukraine will create nuclear weapons and their delivery systems;
The West is purposefully working to undermine relations between the CSTO countries, and Russia's allies are under serious pressure.
It is necessary to improve the collective forces of the CSTO, as well as the decision-making mechanisms within the organization;
Russia will continue to provide the necessary assistance to its allies to neutralize emerging threats and defend its sovereignty.
New missile drones for Ukraine
Telegram Channel "Older Than Eddy" @vysokygovorit
The report on the appearance of the first Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles in Ukraine, answers the question of who and how will transport the British Brimstone missiles delivered to Ukraine.
The threat, of course, will increase - Reaper is a much more serious weapon than Bayraktar. But you can fight him, and in the same Libya, the anti-aircraft "Pantsir" have already shot them down. The Ukrainian army will not be able to change the course of the war with the help of drones: for this scale of battles, hundreds of them are needed in combination with other means, and putting them into operation in such a number will entail a corresponding Russian reaction, given that the Russian Armed Forces do not use all their capabilities in battles.
In general, we can say that now comes a very interesting time: after you have exhausted your own reservations (and other countries) of soviet weapons, the West will be forced to shift to supply their own weapons and discover that lots relatively limited systems that are not the newest (the same as the M777) are nothing more than a drop in the bucket, and for a decisive success it is necessary to provide quality material to new, and, most importantly, in sufficient quantity. Reaper is a new system compared to the one that Ukraine already has. But for the result, it will be necessary to send their entire fleet, which the US Air Force currently has, and then without guarantees: they will also need the appropriate quantities of everything else.
And here two questions immediately arise: a) is the West ready to make deliveries of this scale? b) since the Ukrainians will not be able to handle so many weapons on their own, are you ready to intervene in combat operations on your own?
So far, the answer to both questions is quite negative, and as the success of the Russian army develops, the desire to get involved in combat will decrease: a direct clash with Russia remains a politically unacceptable development for both the USA and its allies.